Session 5: Who are the furthest behind? Inequality of Opportunity in Asia and the Pacific
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1 Session 5: Who are the furthest behind? Inequality of Opportunity in Asia and the Pacific Ermina Sokou 6 October 2017 Strategic Dialogue on Poverty and Inequality in Asia and the Pacific Sustainable Socioeconomic Transformation Section, Social Development Division ESCAP Research questions Methodology Furthest behind Range & trend Index Decomposition Key Results Structure 1
2 Research questions 1. Which population groups are left behind? 2. Has inequality in access to opportunities decreased or increased over time? Are the same groups affected? 3. How do countries compare to each other? 4. How is inequality of opportunity decomposed? Opportunities Methodology Individual: Education, Health, Decent work, Participation Household: WatSan, Clean Energy, Basic ICT, Finance Data sources Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) & Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) 2
3 Methodology (cont ed) Set of (1-5) indicators for each opportunity Criteria: a) in SDG framework or b) in MDG framework; c) in DHS/ MICS Total: 15 indicators / 21 countries Methodology (cont ed) Circumstances: Rural / Urban residence, Ethnicity / Religion, Sex, Poorer (bottom 40) / richer (top 60), Highest education level in HH, Number of children in HH, Age group, Education of mother. 3
4 Types of Results Furthest behind / ahead groups Range of inequality across countries Human Opportunity Index Drivers of inequality (Decomposition) Furthest behind/ ahead group Example: Differences in secondary education attainment in Mongolia, (age: 20-35) Average attainment Average: 69% Sample size: Wealth Poorer: 38% Size: 39% Richer: 88% Size: 61% Residence / Sex Rural: 29% Size: 25% Urban: 58 % Size: 14% Male: 83% Size: 29% Female: 93% Size: 32% Sex Male: 21% Size: 13% Female: 37 % Size: 12% 4
5 Range of inequality in A-P Figure 1: Secondary education attainment (20-35 year olds) Average attainment rate Group attainment rate (highest) Group attainment rate (lowest) KK AM KY PH MN TJ TM TH ID VN VU PK TL BD LA IA AF BT MM KH MV Human Opportunity Index Rank countries: HOI = p (1-D), where: D is the dissimilarity index p is average access (0 to 1) is the size of group i p is the access of group I D = 1 2p p p Drivers: Shapley decomposition 5
6 Education Opportunity Index: Secondary Country EOI Secondary 1 Kazakhstan Armenia Kyrgyzstan Philippines Mongolia India Bhutan Myanmar Cambodia Maldives 0.08 Results 6
7 Who are the furthest behind? Higher education: Who is furthest behind/ahead?* Urban, top 60 (men) Rural, bottom 40 (women) * Higher education attainment among year olds 7
8 but in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Philippines Urban, top 60, women Rural, bottom 40, men * Higher education attainment among year olds Health: Which children suffer from malnutrition? Overweight Poorer, rural boys Top 60, urban kids Overweight: 1. Armenia: boys from larger households 2. Kazakhstan, Thailand, Vanuatu: urban kids with mothers that have higher education Wasting Wasting: 1. Pakistan: larger households 2. Cambodia, Bangladesh, Timor- Leste: boys from rural, poorer households 8
9 Health: Which women have least access to health care? 1. No professional help during childbirth Lower education Poorer Rural Older 2. No access to modern contraceptive Younger ones (15-24) Rural Lower education What is the range of inequality? 9
10 Figure 1: Secondary education attainment (20-35 year olds) Average attainment rate Group attainment rate (highest) Group attainment rate (lowest) KK AM KY 2012 PH MN TJ 2012 TM 2015 TH ID VN VU 2007 PK TL 2010 BD 2014 LA 2011 Figure 3: Higher education attainment (25-35 year olds) IA 2006 AF 2015 BT MM KH MV MN KY 2012 KK 2015 PH TH AM VN TJ 2012 TM 2015 PK BD 2014 IA ID MV MM BT 2010 LA 2011 TL 2010 KH 2014 AF 2015 VU 2007 Health Figure 4: Professional help during childbirth Access level (% ) Average access level Highest access group Lowest access group AM KY TH TM KK MN VN KH TJ PH VU BT PK AF IA BD LA TL MV ID 10
11 Clean Energy Figure 5: Access to clean fuels How do countries compare to each other? 11
12 Education Opportunity Index (EOI) # Country Secondary EOI Country Higher EOI 1 Kazakhstan 0.92 Kyrgyzstan Armenia 0.89 Mongolia Kyrgyzstan 0.85 Kazakhstan Philippines 0.60 Thailand Bhutan 0.11 Cambodia Myanmar 0.11 Lao PRD Cambodia 0.10 Vanuatu Maldives 0.08 Afghanistan 0.04 Health Opportunity Index (HOI): women # Country HOI: Modern Contraceptive Country HOI: Professional Help 1 Thailand 0.73 Armenia 1 2 Bhutan 0.61 Kyrgyzstan 1 3 Viet Nam 0.53 Thailand 1 4 Indonesia 0.52 Turkmenistan Pakistan 0.21 Maldives Tajikistan 0.20 Lao PDR Timor-Leste 0.16 Timor-Leste Afghanistan 0.16 Indonesia
13 Health Opportunity Index (HOI): children # Country HOI- Wasting* Country HOI-Overweight* 1 Mongolia 0.99 Bangladesh Kyrgyzstan 0.98 Cambodia Armenia 0.98 Lao Kazakhstan 0.97 VietNam Turkmenistan 0.97 Myanmar Maldives 0.91 Bhutan Cambodia 0.91 Kazakhstan Myanmar 0.90 Thailand Bangladesh 0.87 Mongolia Timor-Leste 0.83 Armenia 0.88 *Calculated as 1-HOI, because wasting/overweight are unwanted outcomes Energy Opportunity Index (EOI) # Country Electricity EOI Country Clean Fuels EOI 1 Turkmenistan 1 Turkmenistan 1 2 Kazakhstan 1 Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan 1 Armenia Maldives 1 Maldives India 0.54 Bangladesh Cambodia 0.41 Vanuatu Timor-Leste 0.24 Lao PDR Vanuatu 0.19 Timor-Leste
14 What are the main drivers of inequality of opportunity? Education: two extremes Decomposition of D-Index sec high sec high Philippines Tajikistan PoorerHousehold Residence Sex PoorerHousehold Residence Sex 14
15 Electricity Decomposition of D-Index Wealth Residence Education Clean Fuels Decomposition of D-index Wealth Residence Education 15
16 Stunting Decomposition of D-index TH PK TL VU Wealth Mothers education Children under 5 Residence Sex Future analytical focus Composition of the furthest behind (+ over time). Ethnicity / religion. Overlapping inequalities of opportunity: Probability that some groups lack more than one Link with income inequality Policy discussion 16
17 Clean fuels over time Figure 12: Changes in access to electricity over time Access to electricity (%) Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Thailand Turkmenistan Indonesia Pakistan Philippines Bangladesh Cambodia Average Highest Lowest 17
18 Shapley decomposition For example: Mongolia / Education: residence, 3 gender and 1 education Impact of adding circumstance A: Contribution of circumstance A: 18
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