Mot en fredelig verden eller klimakriger?

Transcription

1 Mot en fredelig verden eller klimakriger? Norsk Geofysisk Forening, Geilo, 13. september 2012 Nils Petter Gleditsch Senter for borgerkrigsstudier (CSCW), Institutt for fredsforskning (PRIO) & Institutt for sosiologi og statsvitenskap, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet

2 Hva slags fred om jeg må be? 36 pågående væpnede konflikter Norge i Afghanistan, Irak, Libya og Syria? Angrep på USAs diplomater i Libya 22. juli Kan vi egentlig håpe på en fredelig verden?

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4 A series of books on the waning of war...

5 Og til og med noen politikere - statsministerens nyttårstale 2011 Til tross for Afghanistan og Irak, har antall væpnede konflikter og drepte i kamp gått ned.

6 Armed conflicts Lotta Themnér & Peter Wallensteen, Armed Conflicts , Journal of Peace Research 49(4): (p. 568).

7 Klimakriger Battle deaths, Battle deaths, Intrastate conflicts Intrastate conflicts International conflicts International conflicts Intrastate conflicts International conflicts

8 Number of countries with armed conflict on their territory

9 Where were the armed conflicts in ? 9

10 Conflict zones

11 One-sided violence ( democide ) per year,

12 The Payne/Pinker thesis A decline (in the long term) of War Civil war Genocide and politicide Homicide and violent crime The death penalty & other cruel punishment Torture Cruel treatment of women, children, and even animals Not a linear development, not the same everywhere Many cases of backsliding

13 Why a more peaceful world? - in the long term Man is neither intrinsically warlike or peaceful A civilizing process An expanding circle of empathy - in the short term The end of the Cold War Peacekeeping operations The liberal peace

14 Towards a liberal peace?

15 Challenges to the liberal peace The secular peace the clash of civilizations - conflict will be driven by religious clashes The unipolar peace - new great power challenges to Western hegemony will arise The unjust peace - arise ye domestic and international proletarians The unsustainable peace - conflict will be driven by environmental change

16 Challenges to the liberal peace The secular peace the clash of civilizations - conflict will be driven by religious clashes The unipolar peace - new great power challenges to Western hegemony will arise The unjust peace - arise ye domestic and international proletarians The unsustainable peace - conflict will be driven by environmental change

17 From environmental insecurity to climate change The concept of environmental security arose towards the end of the Cold War The threat of environmental destruction was seen as equivalent to the threat of war Securitizing the environment was also a political strategy - to give the environment higher priority - to downgrade the East-West conflict - to give the national security establishment new tasks But is environmental change also a driver of conflict?

18 The Malthusian Model Population grows exponentially Food production grows linearly Positive checks (higher death rate): War, famine, and pestilence Negative checks (lower birth rate): Abortions, infanticide, birth control

19 The neo-malthusian model Population pressure & high resource consumption Resource depletion Resource scarcity Resource competition Armed conflict

20 Questioning the neo-malthusian model The population explosion didn t quite happen Environmental concern led to countermeasures Resource depletion counteracted by - human ingenuity and technological change - substitution of resources - using the market mechanism for pricing resources - international collaboration Weak evidence for the scarcity-drives-conflict thesis More focus on the resource curse

21 Questioning the neo-malthusian model The population explosion didn t quite happen Environmental concern led to countermeasures Resource depletion counteracted by - human ingenuity and technological change - substitution of resources - using the market mechanism for pricing resources - international collaboration Weak evidence for the scarcity-drives-conflict thesis More focus on the resource curse

22 A population explosion? ( )

23 Questioning the neo-malthusian model The population explosion didn t quite happen Environmental concern led to countermeasures Scarcity counteracted by adaptations - human ingenuity and technological change - substitution of resources - using the market mechanism for pricing resources - cooperation (national and international) Weak evidence for the scarcity-drives-conflict thesis More focus on the resource curse - Climate change comes to the rescue?

24 Questioning the neo-malthusian model The population explosion didn t quite happen Environmental concern led to countermeasures Scarcity counteracted by adaptations - human ingenuity and technological change - substitution of resources - using the market mechanism for pricing resources - cooperation (national and international) Weak evidence for the scarcity-drives-conflict thesis More focus on the resource curse - Climate change comes to the rescue?

25 Enter climate change: Are we heading towards disaster? Future scenario of warring states and massive social disturbance as a result of climate change (Schwartz & Randall, 2003; think-tank report for the Pentagon) Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world and this is a major national security challenge for the US (CNA, 2007; statement by 11 retired US generals and admirals) Darfur is the first of many climate wars (Ban Ki-Moon, ) There is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, more famine, more mass displacement all of which will fuel more conflict for decades (President Barack Obama's Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, 10 December 2009)

26 Can we get some help from this man? Lewis Fry Richardson Medal for exceptional contributions to nonlinear geophysics in general (EGS/EGU) (from 1997) ( Lewis Fry Richardson Lifetime Achievement Award for exemplary scholarly contributions to the scientific study of militarized conflict (from 2001) (

27 A word of warning from the master There is a formal resemblance between psychology and meteorology. In both sciences an enormous collection of observational data has been open to public inspection for a long time. In both sciences the attempt to find order among the miscellany of the observations has proceeded slowly with many failures. In both sciences there are too many circumstances varying simultaneously for the comfort of the mathematician who would like to make a neat, simple theory. Both sciences use correlation coefficients freely. But, judging by the extent to which the observations are explained by theories, it appears that meteorology is ahead of psychology, by the work of a generation. - Lewis F. Richardson, Hints from physics and metereology as to mental periodicities. British Journal of Psychology (General Section), 27(2):

28 But how about this man? TAR (IPCC 2001): Different standards for social science Reliance on grey literature Somewhat politicized Social science not taken seriously? 4AR (IPCC 2007): Not much better In fact Africa chapter worse 5AR (IPCC ):?

29 Global warming and conflict, Temperature deviation from global mean, Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Columbia University Frequency of armed conflict. Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset.

30 Physical consequences of climate change Higher average temperature Melting of glaciers and polar ice Sea-level rise Changes in precipitation Increased natural hazards (floods, droughts, hurricanes)

31 Possible social consequences Increased vulnerability to physical environment Increased exposure to health hazards Destruction of traditional livelihoods Extensive environmental migration Decreased predictability = Security issue by an extended definition Warrants the attention of the Security Council But what about conflict?

32 Adverse climate change Increased risk of armed conflict Klimakriger From climate change to conflict: Possible pathways Poor governance Increase in natural disasters Rising sea level Increasing resource scarcity Migration Societal inequalities Bad neighbors Loss of economic activity, food insecurity, reduction in livelihood Population pressure Political instability Social fragmentation Economic instability Inappropriate response Migration Increased opportunity for organizing violence Increased motivation for instigating violence

33 Sea-level rise migration conflict in host areas Drought Flooding resource competition local conflict Hurricanes Possible pathways to conflict lower state capacity rebel opportunity Most of these causal links refer to a neomalthusian grievance model of civil war, where the grievance is resource scarcity But also relevant to an opportunity model of conflict

34 The four scenarios Drought to conflict Migration to conflict Natural disasters to conflict Sea-level rise to conflict

35 The four scenarios Drought to conflict Migration to conflict Natural disasters to conflict Sea-level rise to conflict

36 Drought and conflict No consistent evidence at the national level Methods problems in early studies Many studies show more conflict in wet years No evidence in disaggregated studies

37 Civil war risk with/without climate variables

38 Is global cooling a greater threat? War, population decline, and dynastic changes were more common in China in cold periods (1000-year time frame) (Zhang, 2006, 2007) Violent conflict in Europe was more common in cold periods, but the relationship disappears in the most recent three centuries (Tol & Wagner, 2010) Warmer summers improve conditions for human settlements and the rise of civilizations but this may be less relevant for modern civilizations (Büntgen et al., 2010) Global cooling threatens to produce drought, famine, and political unrest, particularly in the Sahel region. Climate modification could lead to international conflict (CIA, 1974)

39 The four scenarios Drought to conflict Migration to conflict Natural disasters to conflict Sea-level rise to conflict

40 Migration to conflict mill climate refugees (Myers, IPCC, Stern) In 38 cases of environmental migration since the 1930s, half experienced armed conflict of some kind but is this representative? (Reuveny, 2007) Countries with a high influx of refugees have a greater risk of civil war (Salehyan & Gleditsch, 2006) But will this also apply to climate refugees? Economic migrants tend to adapt rather than fight. Conflict refugees are more likely to fight Urbanization exceeds climate refugees and is largely peaceful

41 The four scenarios Drought to conflict Migration to conflict Natural disasters to conflict Sea-level rise to conflict

42 Natural disasters to conflict Disasters and casualties Attention bias in the data? Disasters dividing or uniting?

43 Natural disasters to conflict Disasters and casualties Attention bias in the data? Disasters dividing or uniting?

44 Number of disasters Number of deaths Klimakriger Hydro-meteorological disasters Year Hydro-met. disasters Disaster deaths

45 Natural disasters to conflict Disasters and casualties Attention bias in the data? Disasters dividing or uniting?

46 Natural disasters to conflict Disasters and casualties Attention bias in the data? Disasters dividing or uniting?

47 Natural disasters to conflict Disasters and casualties Attention bias in the data? Disasters dividing or uniting? - Some early studies show more conflict following disasters (Nel & Righarts, 2008) - Disaster sociology: uniting in the face of adversity (Slettebak, 2012)

48 The four scenarios Drought to conflict Migration to conflict Natural disasters to conflict Sea-level rise to conflict

49 Evidence: Sea-level change Global mean sea-level rise to 2100: cm (IPCC, 2007, WG II: 323): m (Grinsted, Moore & Jevrejeva, 2009) 1.2 bill. live in coastal areas, rising to 5.2 bill. by the end of the century (Nicholls & Small, 2002) Slow process points to adaptation Countermeasures, particularly in urban areas

50 Research priorities What kinds of conflict? Interactions (conflict multiplier, double exposure) More disaggregated work Better climate data Balance positive and negative effects Are the effects of climate change cancelled by other changes? (development, urbanization)) Is it climate and not climate change?

51 Some conclusions Man-made climate change is a major challenge Climate change can be seen as a security issue in the broad sense But so far little support for the view that climate change will lead to more conflict the trend towards peace is not at stake Uncertainty may be our major problem and the main reason to combat climate change But countermeasures may also have adverse consequences for security More research on climate and security is needed Will the IPCC 5AR analyze conflict in a serious way?

52 TAKK FOR OPPMERKSOMHETEN!