1 st Edition July 2014 Imagem Corporativa produced I see BRICS to analyze the perception of the 6th annual Brics Summit in July, which gathered the

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2 1 st Edition July 2014 Imagem Corporativa produced I see BRICS to analyze the perception of the 6th annual Brics Summit in July, which gathered the heads of State of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa in the city of Fortaleza, Brazil. For the creation of this document, Imagem Corporativa includes an exclusive survey, opinions of business executives of various sectors and interviews with specialist about it. 2

3 OUTLOOK The international projection that Brazil obtained within the ongoing discussion about hosting the 2014 Football World Cup continued into the following after the event. On July 14th began the 6th Brics summit, and the talks geared toward the political and economic scene. Within the discussion of Inclusive Growth: Sustainable Solutions, the emerging countries Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa came together in Fortaleza (capital city of Ceará state) until the July 15th, and participated in a series of parallel meetings with another authorities and business leaders. The key points in the meeting were the creation of funding mechanisms that contributes to the development of each respective country. The five heads of State attended the meeting. Along with Dilma Rousseff, the recently elected prime minister Narendra Modi (India) and presidents Vladimir Putin (Russia), Xi Jinping (China), and Jacob Zuma (South Africa) were present. The final document created in the meeting (the Declaration of Fortaleza) addressed the international political scene, making references to the crisis in Africa, the Middle East and Ukraine (in a rather moderated tone), as well as the climate question. The main purpose of the talks was, however, strictly about economic ties and the development of a bigger presence in multilateral financial institutions. We reiterate our commitment to fostering our partnership for common development, said these countries, who also confirmed the 7th Brics Summit in Ufa, Russia, next year. 3

4 DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL The summit s most significant measure was the creation of the New Development Bank (NDB), an institution capitalizing on resources of the five countries, that will act as integral agents of the development of Brics. The initiative represents the opening of an alternative to the international finance system, created in 1944 in Bretton Woods (USA), which consists mainly in the World Bank (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, or IBRD) and the International Moneraty Fund (IMF). In the paper The Brics development bank: Why the world s newest global bank must adopt a pro-poor agenda, published in July by Oxfam - an international organization that currently fights poverty in almost 90 countries the organization assessed that the creation of a Brics Bank, and with it the promise of reforming the global development architecture, offers a real and concrete opportunity for governments of these countries to ensure development financing is sensitive to the needs of those who are poorest and most marginalized. According to Oxfam s director in Brazil, Simon Ticehurst, the bank s infrastructure investments and services should, above all, meet the interests of impoverished and vulnerable communities on behalf of the rural infrastructural development, sustainable job creation, women s rights initiatives, and renewable energy initiatives. We don t want more of the same. According to economist Mark Weisbrot, codirector at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a think tank based in Washington DC (USA), the Brics bank will have the effect of minimizing the global influence of the United States and Europe over the rest of the world. Seventy years is too long to have international institutions with decision-making capacities over economic issues being controlled only by the United States and a handful of rich allies, he said, adding that the NBD has the potential to change the game. With an initial capital of $50 billion (which should double the following years), the bank will destine its resources to member countries, although the idea is to expand their scope into other countries as well. The establishment of this new institution attracted the attention of Brazilian media because of the fact that the NBD presidency will be in India, and Shanghai (China) shall headquarter the institution. President Dilma Rousseff justified this decision, stating that the primary headquarter of the 4

5 MEDIA'S VIEW institution should stay in the country that proposed it in the first place in this case, India. We don t want more of the same Simon Ticehurst, Oxfam director in Brazil Apart from the NBD, other important steps were established on the Brics meeting in Fortaleza, such as the Contingent Reserve Agreement (CRA), with wich it will be possibile to help countries in financial difficulties. With plans of having $100 billion at its disposal, this mechanism shall be financed by China (41%), Brazil, Russia, and China (18% respectively), and South Africa (5%). CRA represents a clear challenge to Bretton Wood s multilateral architecture: after all, its end result is that its possible beneficiaries won t have to rely on IMF or the World Bank. One of these possible countries could be Argentina - but not in its current crisis, derived from its debts with the socalled vulture funds. CRA should only initiate its operations in 2016, and initially provide relief only for Brics. Overall, the media followed this event in Fortaleza with particular interest. On one hand, the foreign media was inclined to focus its attention on the creation of the new bank - and even admit that it occurred due to lack of space for emerging countries in multilateral forums. On the other hand, the Brazilian press had a more nationalistic perception towards the subject, highlighting the fact that Brazil did not obtained the presidency of the bank. On July 16th, the day after the Declaration of Fortaleza, the British newspaper Financial Times openly spoke out and assessed that the NBD would be under the power of China and the choice of Shanghai as the bank s headquarters was a symbol of this situation. For the Brics democratic leaders, however, and Brazil in particular, the danger is that they will be seen as swapping one set of hegemonic powers the US and Europe, which control the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for another, China. FT alerted to the fragmentation of world economic governance into multiple centres of power, competing for influence, and less able to work together in delivering global economic and financial stability. 5

6 In an editorial published on July 23 rd, The New York Times recognized that, although Brics contain 40 percent of the world s population and account for 20 percent of global economic output, the five countries were always marginalized by institutions such as IMF and World Bank, controlled by Europeans and North-Americans. But it stressed that the differences between Brics can be a great challenge in their ambition to establish alternative global financing. Russia and China, for instance, are authoritarian regimes; India and Brazil are democracies. Some of them may be more willing than others to observe international norms on, say, human rights, and some may be more inclined to condition investments on environmental protection. It will be interesting to see how these differences play out in the bank s governance and operations. An researcher from USA s think tank New America Foundation, Parag Khanna, published a text on The Huffington Post (translated on July 27 th by Brazilian newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo) arguing that, in addition to reflecting a dissatisfaction of developing countries with international funding mechanisms established by Bretton Woods, the creation of NDB also shows a different positioning of Brics. It also reflects a difference in philosophy over the need to prioritize physical infrastructure over other priorities (such as education, healthcare, It will be interesting to see how these differences play out in the bank s governance and operations The New York Times, July 23 rd, 2014 women s rights, etc.) towards which the World Bank has been drawn in recent decades. In Brazil, the headlines highlighted the fact that Brazil gave up the opportunity to headquarter the Brics bank. On July 16 th, for example, the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo saw the presidency of NBD as a secondary goal, but overall interpreted this decision as a diplomatic defeat for Brazil. A day after, another point caught the attention of the Brazilian press: the presence of the President of Argentina, Cristina Kirchner, during the joint meeting between the leaders of Brics countries and the 12 sovereign nations of South America. Her idea was to draw attention to her country s situation regarding its fight against the vulture funds. According to the business newspaper Valor Econômico from July 17 th, in addition to the talks of solidarity for Argentina and the promises of larger economical and political intake, the event gave China the possibility to get closer to nations around this region, in which for years it already have had an important economical presence. Presiden Xi Jinping even signed a 6

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8 by separatist pro-russia. On this same day journalist Eliana Cantanhêde, from Folha de S. Paulo newspaper, evaluated that the Brics would leverage the presence of South America, while sustaining a hegemonic process of construction of China in the world. We reiterate our commitment to fostering our partnership for common Development Declaração de Fortaleza promise to invest R$860 million ($380 million) in the state of São Paulo, through the state-owned company Sany Heavy Industry (civil construction machinery), which will construct its first Latin American manufacturer in the city of Jacareí; and through BYD (information and renewable energy technology), which will assemble electric buses, iron phosphate batteries, and solar panels. In the case of Russia, the advantage of both the summit and the meeting with South American leaders was to show that they are not completely isolated of the international scene. That need would turn more urgent later that afternoon, after the report that a Malasia Airlines aircraft was shot down over Ukraine, probably Days after the summit, on July 18 th, Folha de S. Paulo attributed this meeting as the establishment of a new phase in history, the Brics 2.0. According to the writer Marcos Troyjo from the Advisory Board of the World Economic Forum, he is the codirector of BricLab of the University of Columbia (USA) and researcher of the Centre d Études sur l Actuel et le Quotidien (CEAQ) from the University of Paris- Descartes (Sorbonne, França), Brazil will have an active voice in defining strategic pathways of the bank, as president of its advisory board. Before this, Troyjo spoke to Financial Times that the NDB gives China a sort of still-emerging nation status when in reality it is a major economic superpower. 8

9 THE ORIGIN OF BRICS Having working with Bank of America and Swisss Bank Corporation (SBC) in the past, the economist Jim O Neill became responsible for the economic research of the North American bank Goldman Sachs in With the document The world needs better economic Brics, he created the acronym that, in uniting Brasil, Russia, India, and China, revealed the economic dimensions that this group of countries would show in the global scene. In other words, within the emerging countries from the former Third World and the socialist bloc, there was the potential of these nations begin to seriously compete with the rich countries. As time passed, the concept became politicized, thus resulting in a group of countries Brics plus the final s denoting the addition of South Africa. Despite the 2008 global financial crisis, these countries resisted the economic deceleration that predominated in the United States, Europe and Japan after the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers Bank. This made the emerging countries the nations of the hour amongst economic analysts, since there were reckoned the new forces that would help the global economic recuperation. The current scene is quite different, and the Brics enthusiasm has diminished. While Europe is still living with the effects of this crisis, the dynamic of the economic growth of these countries diminished (as shown in the chart that follows). O Neill himself wrote last year that only China was worthy to be seen as a strong economy. If I were to change it, I would just leave the C. But then, I don t think it would be much of an acronym, he said. However, other groups of emerginc countries were suggested and again O Neill used his crystal ball to predict which are the new sensations in the economics scenario as he retired from the Golden Sachs Assest Management. In his last document to his clients, in May 2013, he oput his bets on the acronym Mist (created by him in 2012): Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey. And he noted another group of potential emerging countries, the N11, or Next Level which includes Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam. 9

10 BRICS' X-RAY Population (millions) GDP (US$ billions) GDP per capita (em US$) Brazil s external balance (US$ millions) (*) International reserves (US$ billions) Brasil ,245,67 11,208, Rússia ,096,77 14,611, Índia 1,252 1,876,79 1,498, China 1,357 9,240,27 6,807, , África do Sul ,617,91 + 1, Data from 2013, in corrent values, except (*), US$ FOB Sources: World Bank; Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade SLOW GROWTH GDP s annual growth in Brics (%) Brazil China India South Africa Russia Source: World Bank 10

11 NEW SOURCES OF FINANCING An economic bloc in development or a group of countries with commom points of view regarding international politics? A patchwork of nations with little in common or an association of emerging countries searching more protagonism in global forums? The perceptions concerning the group formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are quite varied, depending on the world view from who makes the assessment. I See BRICS interviewed academics and professors of Brazilian educational institutions to learn a little bit more about their expectations in relation to this potential bloc. For the professor of Economics from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) Mauro Rochlin, the creation of the Brics bank is something very positive. In my opinion, the project fulfills two objectives. First of all, it will help in the case of unprecedented problems in Brics payment balance. It will serve as well as a cushion that the countries will be able to use in the case of problems in exchange rates, or if they have financing needs. In addition, the bank brings the possibility of Brics to rely on it, rather than the IMF, in case of need. This autonomy reinforces the position of these emerging countries in regard to IMF s decision makers he said, adding that this would be a force of pressure for Brics to have more protagonism amongst global financial institutions. The proposal [from the Brics] is to change the international order established after the Second World War Williams Gonçalves, Uerj Professor Williams Gonçalves, from the International Relations Graduate Program in Rio de Janeiro State University (Uerj), understands that there is a general lack of comprehension about the true significance of this union. The Brics union tends to be analyzed as an integration proposal, but it s not about that. Brics is a political sphere with seeks to act on a multilateral level. It works in parallel and simultaneously with bilateral relations within these countries. They propose to change the international order established after the Second World War by the US and European allies, he states. According to his understanding, this bloc stance has attracted the interest from developed countries policymaking centers. Here in Brasil we are attracted 11

12 to the details, such the bank s presidency. The professor argues that a firm aim to create an alternative source of power is a common interest for these five countries. We have nothing in common with Russia, while we are quite different from China, India, and South Africa. We do, however, have the same international vision of politics and this is what will help bring Brics consistency. [Brics autonomy] reinforces the position of these emerging countries in regard to IMF s decision makers Mauro Rochlin, FGV International Relations Professor from the School of Advertising and Marketing (ESPM), Mario Gaspar Sacchi, defends these systems created within the Brics scene as complementary to preexisting institutions, especially in Latin America. He states, this is about creating yet another funding agent that will not be able to face the regions problems alone. It will be necessary to work alongside with other institutions like the IMF. He adds that forming new associations in Latin America has been problematic in the past, and this have making these countries apart. We must take care to not put aside organizations that have a past, such as OAS [the Organization of American States]. Unasul [Union of South American Nations], for instance, is very focused on more ideological aspects, while other new commercial agreements arise, like the Pacific Alliance. Rochlin is skeptical about possible Brazil s trade gains within its association with the other Brics. Despite that the bloc opens communication channels amongst its members, the increase of commercial influx will depend more on the product yield and economic conditions of each country. In the end, Brics is not a commercial bloc with common tariffs, etc. It will be necessary to work alongside with other institutions like the IMF Mario Gaspar Sacchi, ESPM 12

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14 POLL: WHAT SHOULD BE EXPECTED OF BRICS? Expectations around the benefits that the Brics bloc can bring to its members in terms of business opportunities and economic development are quite different among Brazilian businessmen. Last week, I See BRICS submitted an original survey to executives of several companies of Brazil to better know their perception about the discussions held during the summit in Fortaleza and if the bloc has weight on the global sphere, that more and more sees the establishment of free trade agreements between nations. The research consulted a group of 17 executives, active in the segments of finance, automotive, food and pharmaceutical, among others. Just over half of respondents (56.25%) evaluated the impact of the Brics as positive for the business environment in the country. A total of 37.5% evaluated this as neutral, while 6.25% considered it as negative. One of the respondents said, the encounters in Fortaleza had parallel negotiations between the emerging countries. But there is a long path to travel, still. Another pointed out that the union between the five countries could be an alternative to Mercosur, which appears increasingly weakened in its current model. The main measure announced during the conference was the creation of a development bank with capital divided among the five countries. The idea touted by heads of State is to develop an alternative to funding sources in the current international financial institutions established at the end of the Second World War - the IMF and the World Bank. The majority of respondents (56.25%) considers that this new institution should not replace the current system. The group is still in its consolidation phase. For now, their influence is diminished, said one of the poll s participants. Similarly, the creation of a credit system among the five nations in local currency, directed to infrastructure projects, was perceived as positive by 68.75% of respondents. Brazil s diplomatic and commercial choice to become closer to emerging countries which intensified after the global financial crisis of 2008 that weakened the central economies was perceived as misguided by 68.75% of the poll s participants. An opinion of a respondant was 14

15 that the claims that all would grow to the point of becoming great players in the economic and geopolitical scenario did not materialize, except in the case of China and India. There is an illusion; they are countries with different interests and economic potentials, that in some cases make decisions that have ideological bias. Brazil s decision of giving up of heading the presidency of the Brics bank should not affect the prominence of the country within the bloc. This was the opinion of 75% of the survey participants. The bank s creation and the establishment of an anti-crisis fund certainly appears as alternatives to the economic dependency towards the IMF and the World Bank for these countries that claim for more influence and participation in global economic decisions. The BRICs Impact on the business environment in Brazil 6,25% 37,5% Is Brazil s approach to other emerging countries right? 31,25% DIVERGENT OPINIONS ON BRICS I see [the bloc] as positive for the countries positioning that once did not have protagonist role - and who knows? They could be more creative. Given the lack of bilateral agreements, this seems to be the best path. Brics is the best solution for now, and the summit had positive results. Brazil is a country extremely poorly positioned in diplomacy and foreign trade. It tends to be hostage of unilateral measures non-democratic regimes with partners like China and Russia. Is the opportunity to strengthen a group of countries that have high growth potential. 56,25% Null Positive Negative 68,75% Yes No Brics is relevant, even more so when we see other developing countries appear on world stage. The union of this group is important for each country to transmit their experiences and learn from others. 15

16 We believe the BRICS are an important force for incremental change and reform of current institutions towards more representative and equitable governance, capable of generating more inclusive global growth and fostering a stable, peaceful and prosperous world. THE DECLARATIO The NDB will strengthen the cooperation among our countries and will supplement the efforts of multilateral and regional financial institutions for global development, thus contributing to our collective commitments for achieving the goal of strong, sustainable and balanced growth. [The Contingent Reserve Arrangement] will have a positive precautionary effect, help countries forestall short-term liquidity pressures, promote further BRICS cooperation, strengthen the global financial safety net and complement existing international arrangements. We are committed to raise our economic cooperation to a qualitatively new level. 16

17 N OF FORTALEZA Development and security are closely interlinked, mutually reinforcing and key to attaining sustainable peace. We stress our commitment to the sustainable and peaceful settlement of disputes, according to the principles and purposes of the UN Charter. We agree that particular attention should be given to young people and to small and medium-sized enterprises, with a view to promoting international exchange and cooperation, as well as to fostering innovation, ICT [information and communications rechnologies] research and development. Renewable and clean energy, research and development of new technologies and energy efficiency, can constitute an important driver to promote sustainable development, create new economic growth, reduce energy costs and increase the efficiency in the use of natural resources. 17

18 EDITORIAL WRITING AND PUBLISHING: Imagem Corporativa s Content, Management and Strategy Unit DESIGN/LAYOUT: Alexandra Marchesini IMAGES: Agência Brasil; Xinhua; Brazil s Presidency of Republic PUBLICATION DATE: August,

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