TRANSATLANTIC TRENDS QUESTIONS AND 16A

Transcription

1 TRANSATLANTIC TRENDS QUESTIONS AND 16A

2 Transatlantic Trends 2014 Partners

3 TECHNICAL NOTE Transatlantic Trends Survey 2014 is a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Compagnia di San Paolo (Italy) with additional support from the Barrow Cadbury Trust (UK), Luso-American Foundation (Portugal), Fundación BBVA (Spain), Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Sweden) and the Open Society Foundation (U.S.). Fieldwork The fieldwork was coordinated by TNS opinion. s were conducted between 02/06/2014 and 26/06/2014 by the following institutes: Germany TNS EMNID Bielefeld France Efficience 3 Reims Italy TNS Italy Rome Netherlands Efficience 3 Reims Portugal TNS EUROTESTE Lisbon Spain TNS Demoscopia Madrid United Kingdom ICM London Poland TNS OBOP Warsaw Turkey TNS PIAR Istanbul USA TNS US and Universal Survey New York Sweden TNS SIFO AB Stockholm Russia Bashkirova&Partners Moscow Greece TNS ICAP Athens Each national sample is representative of the population aged 18 years and above. The sample sizes amount to approximately 1000 respondents in each country, with the exception of Russia where 1500 interviews were carried out. Methodology: Countries Sample Fieldwork dates (2014) sizes Start End Germany /06 21/06 France /06 15/06 Italy /06 19/06 Netherlands /06 26/06 Portugal /06 20/06 Spain /06 20/06 United Kingdom /06 23/06 Poland /06 24/06 Greece /06 23/06 Turkey /06 18/06 Russia /06 21/06 USA /06 22/06 Sweden /06 25/06 s (except in Poland, Turkey, and Russia where faceto-face interviews were conducted due to the low telephone penetration rate in these three countries). The basic sample design applied in all states is multi-stage random (probability). In each household, the respondent was drawn at random (following the "closest birthday rule"). Up to 5 call-backs for telephone interviews and 4 visits in total for face-to-face interviews were attempted before dropping a potential respondent.

4 NOTE TO READERS The summary topline report shows results for each of the 13 countries surveyed. USA FR = France GER = Germany UK= The United Kingdom IT = Italy NL = The Netherlands PL = Poland PT = Portugal SP = Spain GR = Greece TR = Turkey RU = Russia SE = Sweden Results for Europe as a whole are also indicated. In order to compare with the previous results, we have processed 5 separate totals for the results of Europe: EU 5: Results for EU5 based on five European Union member states: United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. EU 7: Results for EU7 based on seven European Union member states: United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland and Portugal. EU 8: Results for EU8 based on eight European Union member states: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and United Kingdom. EU 9: Results for EU9 based on nine European Union member states: Europe 8 plus Sweden EU 10: Results for EU10 based on ten European Union member states: Europe 9 plus Greece The figures given for Europe are weighted on the basis of the adult population in each of the European countries. In addition, for all countries, all new questions since 2010 are weighted using specified country demographic weights. w1: Stage 1 selection probability weight w2: Stage 2 Correction for dual frame countries France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and US w3: Stage 3 Socio-demographic weights for all countries (gender/age, education, region) w3capped: Based on weight w3 but capped to 0.3 and 3. Where available, data from the Transatlantic Trends 2009, Transatlantic Trends 2008, Transatlantic Trends 2007, Transatlantic Trends 2006, Transatlantic Trends 2005, Transatlantic Trends 2004, Transatlantic Trends 2003 surveys, the Worldviews 2002 and Transatlantic Trends Immigration 2011 survey are provided. For purposes of comparison, figures are shown below the 2010 corresponding figure, in italic. The results of Worldviews 2002 are based on the 6 European countries surveyed (United Kingdom, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Italy and Poland). In order to simplify the presentation of the results, they have been included in the column Europe 7. The results of Transatlantic Trends Immigration 2011 are based on the 5 European countries surveyed (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain and Italy). In order to simplify the presentation of the results, they have been included in the column Europe 5. All figures are expressed in percentage terms. In questions where [Europe\the United States] or [European Union\the United States] figures, the former item is asked in Europe and the latter in the United States.

5 Due to the rounding off of the results, in certain tables the figures representing a sum of results can differ by +/- one point compared to the actual sum of individual results. For the results based on the total sample in each of the fifteen countries, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus three percentage points. For results based on the total European sample, the margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point. Statistical Margins due to the sampling process (at the 95% level of confidence) various sample sizes are in rows various observed results are in columns 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% N=50 6,0 8,3 9,9 11,1 12,0 12,7 13,2 13,6 13,8 13,9 N=50 N=500 1,9 2,6 3,1 3,5 3,8 4,0 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,4 N=500 N=1000 1,4 1,9 2,2 2,5 2,7 2,8 3,0 3,0 3,1 3,1 N=1000 N=1500 1,1 1,5 1,8 2,0 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,5 N=1500 N=2000 1,0 1,3 1,6 1,8 1,9 2,0 2,1 2,1 2,2 2,2 N=2000 N=3000 0,8 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,8 1,8 N=3000 N=4000 0,7 0,9 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 N=4000 N=5000 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,4 1,4 1,4 N=5000 N=6000 0,6 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,3 1,3 N=6000 N=7000 0,5 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,2 1,2 N=7000 N=7500 0,5 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 N=7500 N=8000 0,5 0,7 0,8 0,9 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,1 1,1 1,1 N=8000 N=9000 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 N=9000 N= ,4 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,0 N=10000 N= ,4 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 N=11000 N= ,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 N=12000 N= ,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,9 N=13000 N= ,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 N=14000 N= ,3 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 N= % 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55%

6 DETAILED METHODOLOGY TTS 2014 Technical specifications Country Mode Field Period Representative Sample Design Sample Size France 2 June - 15 June Random Digit Dialing Average Length of Base for stratification minutes Departement Number of PSUs Was PSU allocated proportional to size? Geographic Non- Coverage DOM-TOM are not included (French territories such as French Guyana, Martinique, Guadeloupe and Reunion Island) Netherlands 2 June - 26 June Random Digit Dialing minutes Regions None Germany 2 June - 21 June to landline telephone Random Digit Dialing minutes Regions crossed by urbanisation levels None Spain 2 June - 20 June Random Digit Dialing minutes Regions crossed by urbanisation levels Ceuta and Melilla (autonomous cities in the north of Africa) Greece 6 June - 23 June Random Digit Dialing minutes Regions crossed by urbanisation levels None Italy 5 June - 19 June Random digit diallling minutes Regions crossed by urbanisation levels None Portugal 2 June - 20 June Random digit diallling minutes Regions crossed by urbanisation levels Madeira and Azores Islands Sweden 2 June - 25 June Random digit diallling minutes Regions None UK 2 June - 23 June to landline telephone Random digit diallling minutes Regions Isle of Man and Channel Island USA 3 June - 22 June Random digit diallling minutes Regions None Russia Face-to-face 2 June - 21 June older Stratified multistage random route sampling minutes Regions 106 yes Chechen republic, extreme north Poland Face-to-face 5 June - 24 June older Stratified multistage random route sampling minutes Regions crossed by urbanisation levels 200 yes None Turkey Face-to-face 2 June - 18 June older Stratified multistage random route sampling minutes Regions 129 yes None

7 Transatlantic Trends 2014 Q11.1 And should NATO be engaged in the following missions? The territorial defence of Europe [READ OUT - ONE ANSWER ONLY] [FILTER: DO NOT ASK Q11.1 IN RUSSIA AND SWEDEN] EU 7 EU 8 EU 9 EU 10 USA TR FR GER GR IT NL PL PT SP UK TOTAL (7000) (8000) 98% (8777) 98% (9759) (1003) (1007) Yes No [DK]/[REFUSAL] Fieldwork: June 2014 Topline report 41/106

8 Transatlantic Trends 2014 Q11.2 And should NATO be engaged in the following missions? Conducting military operations outside of America and Europe [READ OUT - ONE ANSWER ONLY] [FILTER: DO NOT ASK Q11.2 IN RUSSIA AND SWEDEN] EU 7 EU 8 EU 9 EU 10 USA TR FR GER GR IT NL PL PT SP UK TOTAL (7000) (8000) 98% (8777) 98% (9759) (1003) (1007) Yes No [DK]/[REFUSAL] Fieldwork: June 2014 Topline report 42/106

9 Transatlantic Trends 2014 Q11.3 And should NATO be engaged in the following missions? Providing arms or training to help other countries defend themselves [READ OUT - ONE ANSWER ONLY] [FILTER: ONLY TO SPLIT A2 / DO NOT ASK Q11.3 IN RUSSIA AND SWEDEN] EU 7 EU 8 EU 9 EU 10 USA TR FR GER GR IT NL PL PT SP UK TOTAL 49% (3450) 49% (3913) 48% (4293) 48% (4771) (501) 53% (532) (502) 48% (478) 48% (480) (504) 49% (491) (497) (503) 46% (462) 49% (488) Yes No [DK]/[REFUSAL] Fieldwork: June 2014 Topline report 43/106

10 Transatlantic Trends 2014 Q11.4 And should NATO be engaged in the following missions? Providing arms or training to help other countries like Ukraine defend themselves [READ OUT - ONE ANSWER ONLY] [FILTER: ONLY TO SPLIT B2 / DO NOT ASK Q11.4 IN RUSSIA AND SWEDEN] EU 7 EU 8 EU 9 EU 10 USA TR FR GER GR IT NL PL PT SP UK TOTAL 51% (3550) 51% (4087) (4483) (4988) (502) 47% (475) (498) 52% (522) 52% (520) (496) 51% (509) (503) (497) 54% (538) 51% (512) Yes No [DK]/[REFUSAL] Fieldwork: June 2014 Topline report 44/106

11 Transatlantic Trends 2014 Q11.5 And should NATO be engaged in the following missions? Attempting to establish stability in places like Afghanistan [READ OUT - ONE ANSWER ONLY] [FILTER: DO NOT ASK Q11.5 IN RUSSIA AND SWEDEN] EU 7 EU 8 EU 9 EU 10 USA TR FR GER GR IT NL PL PT SP UK TOTAL (7000) (8000) 98% (8777) 98% (9759) (1003) (1007) Yes No [DK]/[REFUSAL] Fieldwork: June 2014 Topline report 45/106

12 Transatlantic Trends 2014 Q16a Should the European Union (in US: the United States) continue to provide economic and political support to Ukraine, even if there is a risk of increasing conflict with Russia? [ONE ANSWER ONLY] [FILTER: DO NOT ASK Q16a IN RUSSIA] EU 7 EU 8 EU 9 EU 10 USA TR FR GER GR IT NL PL PT SE SP UK TOTAL (7000) (8000) (9000) (10000) (1003) (1007) Yes No [DK]/[REFUSAL] Fieldwork: June 2014 Topline report 52/106

13 Transatlantic Trends Program Note Transatlantic Trends is a comprehensive annual survey of U.S. and European public opinion. Polling was conducted by TNS Opinion from June 2-26, 2014, in the United States, Turkey, Russia, and ten European Union member states: France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The survey is a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and the Compagnia di San Paolo, with additional support from the Barrow Cadbury Trust, the Fundación BBVA, and the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. The advisory committee for the survey included Pierangelo Isernia, professor of political science, University of Siena (Italy); Richard Eichenberg, associate professor of political science, Tufts University (United States), and Nicoló Russo Perez, program manager, Compagnia di San Paolo (Italy). For the immigration data, the advisers were Susan Martin, executive director, Institute for the Study of International Migration, Georgetown University (United States); Claudia Diehl, professor of microsociology, University of Konstanz (Germany); and Ayesha Saran, programme manager, and Debbie Pippard, head of programmes, from the Barrow Cadbury Trust (United Kingdom). The authors of the Key Findings Report were Constanze Stelzenmüller, senior transatlantic fellow and project lead for Transatlantic Trends; and Josh Raisher, program coordinator for Transatlantic Trends. Astrid Ziebarth, director, Migration and Society Program, and Tanja Wunderlich, senior transatlantic fellow, shaped the immigration section of the Key Findings report, and made important contributions to the overall analysis of the data. We wish to acknowledge the invaluable help of Linda Basile, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Siena. Daniela Braun and Bridget Parker played a major role in creating the accompanying charts and provided other essential help during the preparation of this report.

14 A project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Compagnia di San Paolo, with additional support from the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the Barrow Cadbury Trust, and the BBVA Foundation.