8. United States of America

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "8. United States of America"

Antony Blake Hancock
6 years ago
Views:

1 (a) Past trends 8. United States of America The total fertility rate in the United States dropped from 3. births per woman in to 2.2 in Except for a temporary period during the late 197s and early 198s, when it hovered around 1.8, the total fertility rate has continued to be around two children per woman. Life expectancy at birth, meanwhile, has risen from 69. years in to 7.7 years in As a consequence of these changes, the proportion of the population aged 6 or older rose from 8.3 per cent in 19 to 12. per cent in 199, and the potential support ratio declined from 7.8 in 19 to.2 in 199. As a point of comparison, the potential support ratio was 1 in 19, when 4 per cent of the population was aged 6 years or older. (b) Scenario I Scenario I, the medium variant of the United Nations 1998 Revision, assumes an annual net intake of 76, migrants per year between 199-2, for a total of 41,8, net migrants during the period. Accordingly, the total population of the United States is projected to increase continuously from 267 million in 199 to 349 million in 2 (the results of the 1998 United Nations projections are shown in the annex tables). By 2, out of this total population of 349 million, 9 million, or 16.8 per cent, would be post-199 immigrants or their descendants. The population aged 1-64 would increase slowly from 174 million in 199 to 214 million in 2, although not in a monotonic fashion. The population aged 6 or older would rise rapidly, from 33 million in 199 to nearly 76 million in 2. As a result, the potential support ratio would decrease from.2 in 199 to 2.8 in 2. (c) Scenario II Scenario II, which is the medium variant with zero migration, uses the fertility and mortality assumptions of the medium variant of the 1998 Revision, but without any migration to the United States after 199. The results in this scenario are quite different from those of scenario I. The total population would increase to 29 million in 2, which is million less than in scenario I. The population aged 1-64 would rise from 174 million in 199 to 192 million in 21 and 21 and then decline, returning to 174 million in 2. The population aged 6 or older would double, from 33 million in 19 to 68 million in 2. As a result, the potential support ratio would decline to 2.6 in 2, which is slightly below that presented in scenario I. (d) Scenario III Scenario III keeps the size of the total United States population constant at its maximum of 298 million, which it would reach in 23 (assuming no in-migration after 199). In order to keep the total population constant at that level, it would be necessary to have 6.4 million migrants between 23 and 2, which is an average of 319, migrants per year. By 2, out of a total population of 298 million, 7.3 million, or 2. per cent, would be post-199 immigrants or their descendants. (e) Scenario IV Scenario IV keeps the size of the population aged 1 to 64 constant at its maximum of 192. million, which it would reach in 21 (assuming no in-migration after 199). In order to keep the working-age population constant at that level, 18. million migrants would be needed between 21 and 2, which is an average of 13 thousand migrants per year. By 2, out of a total population of 316 million, 2. million, or 7.9 per cent, would be post-199 immigrants or their descendants. United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration 77

2 (f) Scenario V Scenario V does not allow the potential support ratio to decrease below the value of 3.. In order to achieve this, no immigrants would be needed until 22, and 44.9 million immigrants would be needed between 22 and 2, an average of 4. million per year during that period. By 2, out of a total population of 2 million, 61 million, or 17 per cent, would be post-199 immigrants or their descendants. (g) Scenario VI Scenario VI keeps the potential support ratio at its 199 value of.2 persons aged 1-64 for each person aged 6 or older. In order to keep the potential support ratio constant at that level, it would be necessary to have 93 million immigrants from 199 to 2, an average of 1.8 million per year. By 2, out of a United States total population of 1.1 billion, 77 million, or 73 per cent, would be post- 199 immigrants or their descendants. (h) Additional considerations The official United States estimate of (documented) migrants into the United States from 199 to 1996 is about 1.1 million per year. Thus, the past regular inflow into the United States is well above the number of migrants needed to prevent a decline in the total population or in the working-age population. Also under both scenarios III and IV, the percentage of post-199 immigrants and their descendants in the total population of 2 (2. per cent for scenario III and 7.9 per cent for scenario IV) would be below the percentage of foreign-born that exists currently (9.6 per cent). Figure 23 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and IV, the population of the United States in 2, indicating the share that consists of post-199 migrants and their descendants. In the absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the working-age to 66.9 years to obtain a potential support ratio of 3. in 2, and to about 74 years in order to obtain in 2 the same potential support ratio observed in 199 in the United States, which was.2 persons of working age per each older person past working age. Increasing the activity rates of the population, if it were possible, would only be a partial palliative to the decline in the support ratio due to ageing. If the activity rates of all men and women aged 2 to 64 were to increase to 1 per cent by 2, this would make up for only 21 per cent of the loss in the active support ratio resulting from the ageing of the population. 78 United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

3 TABLE 2. POPULATION INDICATORS FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BY PERIOD FOR EACH SCENARIO Scenario I II III IV V VI * Medium Constant Constant Medium variant with total age group Ratio 1-64/6+ variant zero migration population 1-64 not less than 3. Constant ratio 1-64/6 years or older Period A. Average annual number of migrants (thousands) B. Total number of migrants (thousands) C. Total population (thousands) D. Age group -14 (thousands) E. Age group 1-64 (thousands) F. Age group 6+ (thousands) G. Potential support ratio 1-64/ * Scenario VI is considered to be demographically unrealistic. United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration 79

4 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 1 9 Age Figure 22. Age-sex structures by scenario for 2, 22 and 2 (Population in millions) Medium variant Constant total population Population without migration after 199 Migrants plus descendants 8 United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

5 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Age Constant age group 1-64 Figure 22 (continued) Constant ratio 1-64/6 years or older United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration 81

6 Figure 23. Population of the United States in 2, indicating those who are post-199 migrants and their descendants, by scenario 4 Population (millions) Migrants plus descendants Population without migration after 199 I. Medium variant II. Zero migration III. Constant total population Scenario IV. Constant working age 82 United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

The impact of immigration on population growth

The impact of immigration on population growth Briefing Paper 15.3 www.migrationwatchuk.com Summary 1. The impact of immigration on the size of the UK population is substantially greater than is generally realised. Between 2001 and 2012 inclusive,