World population. World population. World population. World population. World population. World population billion by 2100

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1 billion by % of growth is in developing countries living in acute poverty Projections vary based on assumptions regarding: demographic transition in developing countries long-range fertility rates worldwide Projection sources: United States Census Bureau (USCB), World Bank, UN, and IIASA. Developing countries Industrialized countries Dominance of developing country population growth on world population Top 10 Countries China 1,270,000,000 India 1,030,000,000 US 281,421,906 Indonesia 224,784,210 Brazil 172,860,370 Russia 146,001,176 Pakistan 141,553,775 Bangladesh 129,194,224 Japan 126,549,976 Nigeria 123,337,822 Los Angeles Times March Source: Population Division of the Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat Source: US Census Bureau

2 Demographic indicators: Life expectancy Data source: UN, 1998 Demographic indicators: Crude birth rates Demographic indicators: Crude death rates Demographic indicators: Net # migrants Population density

3 Fertility Fertility Color Fertility rate < 2 declining population ~ 2 stable population 3-4 growing population > 4 rapidly growing population Fertility Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Projections vary based on assumptions regarding: low TFR trends in developed countries demographic transition in developing countries Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,00 per year) Low Birth rate Total population Death rate Growth rate over time Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero Negative Industrialized: To increase wealth, have fewer children Developing: To increase wealth, have more children for financial security

4 Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Expanding Rapidly Expanding Slowly Stable Declining Rapid growth Typically mixed with: High infant mortality Fewer opportunities for women outside the home Poor access to education, health care, long-term personal economic security Country TFR Mali 7.34 Niger 7.29 Uganda 6.81 Somalia 6.60 Afganistan 6.58 Rapid Growth Male Female Prereproductive ages 0 14 Reproductive ages Postreproductive ages Aging Challenges for: Health care Labor force Pension Country TFR* Spain 1.15 Latvia 1.16 Czech Republic 1.18 Bulgaria 1.24 Italy 1 Stable - Aging Male Female Aging Percentage of world population over 60 or 65 years of age Country demographics Population growth Crude birth rate Crude death rate Total fertility rate Replacement rate Life expectancy Net number of migrants Demographic transition Group 1 Country Comparison Afghanistan netherlands Haiti Thailand Rwanda Denmark Australia Canada China Egypt France Phillipines New Zealand Cambodia Bahamas Bangladesh Costa Rica Bolivia Korea N Pakistan US Saudi Arabia Argentina CAR Greenland Italy Fiji Japan India Korea S Mexico Russia Botswana Singapore Switzerland

5 Group 2 Country Comparison Afghanistan Greenland Italy netherlands Argentina Japan Phillipines Australia Cambodia Singapore Bahamas Canada Haiti CAR Fiji Korea S Bangladesh Mexico New Zealand China Botswana Rwanda Korea N Russia Saudi Arabia Switzerland US Egypt Costa Rica Denmark Bolivia France Pakistan Thailand India