1. GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF POPULATION Population & Migration

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1 1. GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF POPULATION Population & Migration BASICS OF DEMOGRAPHY Demography - study of: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION Distribution: (Distribution is ) Living space of humans on earth s surface: Details: Global Population Distribution: poorer, less developed countries = % China and India Where? Largest Concentration nd Largest Concentration 3 rd Largest Concentration POPULATION DENSITY Arithmetic Physiological Agricultural CENTER OF POPULATION: avg of the of population across a country --- NOT: Where is the Center of Population for the United States? CARRYING CAPACITY - number of people the area can Factors Influencing Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity can be increased by INFRASTRUCTURE OVERPOPULATION: country can increase its carrying capacity - When Infrastructure Limits Carrying Capacity other concerns - decreasing -- population vs. - reduction of

2 . DEMOGRAPHER S TOOLBOX Population & Migration BIRTH & DEATH RATES DEFINITON CBR: CRUDE BIRTH RATE CDR: CRUDE DEATH RATE WHAT DOES IT TELL US? HIGH (18-50): POORER COUNTRIES: LOW (8-17): RICHER COUNTRIES: RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE RNI = Negative RNI? CDR CBR Why Natural Increase? Doesn t factor: Shrinkage? DOUBLING TIME = it takes for a country to in size Doubling Time = Bolivia ( RNI = 1.9%) --- Doubling Time = years ADD MIGRATION AND VIOLÀ: Net Migration Rate (NMR): Population Growth % Rate: Sometimes Not a Percent: OTHER STATS Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) Life Expectancy (LE) Fecundity General Fertility Rate (GFR) # / 1000 live births in a year ability of women to # / women in fecund years - normally AGES TO Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for woman in her fecund years - 010: Replacement Rate # of children necessary to population TFR of Dependency Ratio # of people supported by in labor force. dependents: too or too =

3 3. POPULATION GROWTH & DECLINE Population & Migration POPULATION EXPLOSION last 300 years increasing at rate (not ) HISTORICAL TRENDS When? Why? Result? Agricultural Revolution Second Agricultural Revolution Industrial Revolution MALTHUSIAN THEORY - Thomas Malthus - An Essay on the Principle of Population ( ) (exponential)was growing faster than (arithmetically) by advocated checks on growth warned against & WHAT HAPPENED INSTEAD? = boost food production stayed ahead of population growth Neo-Malthusians: Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid! Sustainability Increasing Per Capita Demand Natural Resource Depletion Other Arguments Karl Marx: Ester Boserup:

4 POPULATION POLICIES PRO-NATALIST Who? ANTI-NATALIST Female Infanticide: Effect? POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE United Nations - growth scenarios: Low-Growth High-Growth Medium-Growth 004 UN Conference on Population - Empowering women - DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM LDCs - growth New generation of births far surpasses older people dying hidden momentum:

5 4. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL (DTM) Population & Migration BASICS OF THE DTM Explains and predicts changes in population growth Also - migration, fertility, development, industrialization, urbanization, labor, politics, roles of women Predicts changes in CBR, CDR, and RNI - countries transition through development U.K. HISTORIC UK pre 1760 UK UK UK post 1950 UK soon? CBR CDR LIFE EXPECTANCY RNI CBR FACTORS CDR FACTORS EXAMPLES Epidemiologic Transition model (ETM) POPULATION PYRAMID MIGRATION TRANSITION (ZALINKSY)

6 5. POPULATION PYRAMIDS Population & Migration GENERAL PRINCIPLES and distribution bar = --- intervals of years --- each side of the bar = helps determine sex ratio: cohorts can be or SHAPE TRIANGULAR EXTENDED TRIANGLE COLUMN REDUCED PENTAGON GROWTH EXAMPLE GAPS = HOW? BUSTS = WHO S THE TOP? TOP: BOTTOM: REST: DEPENDENCY RATIO MDCS: LDC:

7 6. MIGRATION Population & Migration INTERREGIONAL INTRAREGIONAL TRANSNATIONAL WHO IS WHO? FORCED MIGRATION MDCS: LDC: programs to receive refugees: asylum host countries economic burdens: without government authorization: some countries programs MIGRATION STREAMS: high place desirability: net in-migration: immigrants emigrants examples: net out-migration: immigrants emigrants examples: migration counterstream: examples: STEPS TO A BETTER LIFE step migration: INTERVENING OPPORTIES INTERVENING OBSTACLES BUILDING A CHAIN: THEN: RESULT? MIGRATION WAVES United States Transnational 1600s s-1850s early 1900s s-80s late 80s

8 United States - Internal Great Migration: WW1-1970s began to move south Rustbelt (Frostbelt) -- to Sunbelt -- Life-Course Changes: GUEST WORKERS: send to home country PUSH FACTORS PULL FACTORS NOTES FOR PUSH/PULL FACTORS --- ALWAYS CONSIDER SCALE! --- NOT OPPOSITES!! 7. PREDICTING & EXPLAINING MIGRATION Population & Migration MIGRATION SELECTIVITY: personal, social, economic factors - most influential EDUCATION more likely: increased benefit due to increased and net-out migration = RAVENSTEIN S MIGRATION LAWS Every migration flow = Most migration = Urban residents = Families = Most migrants = Large towns = reverse =

9 GRAVITY MODEL larger places: closer places: equation: vs factor: limits: ZELINSKY S MIGRATION TRANSITION MODEL Wilbur Zelinsky - SEE DTM CHART HUMAN CAPITAL THEORY education, skills, training = take to country to make more money = increases from migration destination country: sending country: SPATIAL INTERACTION & FRICTION OF DISTANCE spatial & temporal barriers to communication & travel: easier to come together regardless of distance: Spatial Interaction is increasing: EFFECTS OF MIGRATION Positive On Countries of Origin Negative On Receiving Countries Positive Negative NOT REALLY MIGRATION: DAILY MOVEMENTS Activity Space: area of daily travel: Cyclic Movement: Seasonal Movement: Periodic Movement:

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