Migration Statistics and Service Planning in Luton and the Potential Implications of BREXIT

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1 Migration Statistics and Service Planning in Luton and the Potential Implications of BREXIT Eddie Holmes Senior Intelligence Analyst Luton Borough Council

2 Overview Luton is a town with high levels of international migration High projected population growth Use of Migration data in local planning Implications for council services Implications for planned house building Implications for labour market Early investigation into the impact of BREXIT

3 Luton Background Strong population growth 2016 MYE 216,800, population at 2011 Census 203,600 74,300 households, with an average HH size of Average HH size was 2.59 in 2001 Evidence of very large households some up to 30 people Younger than average population Strong population growth in urban areas Estimated need for 20,000 dwellings High population density and limited space to build

4 Luton Background High BME Population, 55% BME at 2011 Census Large South Asian population High international migration super-diverse over 100 languages and dialects spoken New East European population, over 10,000 at last Census, evidence this is not short term migration Migration from Romania since change in law High population churn approximately 50% of population either not born or not living in Luton at the time of the 2011 Census

5 High Population Turnover High Population churn in Luton

6 Deprivation in Luton

7 Local Economy Formerly dominated by manufacturing Service sector biggest share of economy but manufacturing still above national average Growing airport and associated business large part of economy, estimated 10,000 jobs Growing economy and high rate of business start ups Skill shortage in town means that commuters into town have higher average earnings than residents

8 National Insurance Registrations from Overseas in Luton High Level of National Insurance Registrations from overseas in Luton High numbers from Poland and Romania Slower growth rate in 2017

9 Increasing Diversity Increasing Proportion of non UK born population More than half of births in Luton to non UK born mothers More than half of pupils in Luton s schools do not have English as a first language 75% school pupils in Luton are BME Increase of people moving from London Boroughs Issues for schools, house building and local economy High population turnover and high levels of migration factored into decision making These issues highlight the need for good migration data and on-going research

10 BREXIT Issues Reduced access to EU market could hinder airport and associated business growth Labour market shortages for local economy If migration is reduced will this reduce pressure on schools? Potential impact of loss of migrant workforce on services such as care homes and NHS LBC investing in up-skilling local population Loss of EU funded projects

11 Population Projection Scenarios Current methodology uses 10 year average of migration and local mortality and fertility rates Hard BREXIT assumes inward international migration is reduced and EU citizens are not granted right to stay in UK Soft BREXIT scenario assumes inward international migration is reduced and EU citizens are granted right to stay in UK Finger in air nature of assumptions but does give an indication of possible scenarios for planning

12 EU Citizens in Luton

13 NINO Registrations in Luton

14 Migration to Overseas Hard BREXIT assumes no agreement for EU citizens to stay in the UK Uses Census and schools data to estimate East European population with age breakdown Movement out of UK over a period of 3 years Younger age group than current migration schedule No attempt to estimate UK citizens coming back to UK from EU countries Potential for future research Work very experimental at the moment Impact of Hard BREXIT needs examining, implications for labour market, schools and house planning

15 Hard BREXIT Migration Schedule

16 Population Projection Comparison Luton Population Projections Scenario Comparisons

17 Age Breakdown of Scenarios Age Breakdown of Population Projection Scenarios

18 Experimental nature of work Summary Research needed to attempt to gauge impact on labour market, older age groups and school age population for planning Issues of labour market shortages Uncertainty for house building School place planning Ratio of working age to retirement age issue Research needed throughout the BREXIT process