Security and Energy Paul Prososki, International Republican Institute consultant

Transcription

1 Security and Energy Paul Prososki, International Republican Institute consultant RECENT POLLING FROM CENTRAL EUROPE NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY REVOLUTION

2 Opinions on peace of Europe: Which statement is closer to your opinion? Hungary 20% 72% 9% Poland 24% 68% 8% Czech Republic 23% 75% 3% Slovakia 30% 68% 2% Germany 30% 68% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Europe is at peace, and there are no significant threats to peace on the horizon. The peace of Europe is threatened on multiple fronts, such as terrorism, a resurgent Russia, and increased migrantion. Don't know 2

3 Opinions on NATO: Which statement is closer to your opinion? Hungary 44% 41% 16% Poland 52% 35% 13% Czech Republic 46% 50% 3% Slovakia 44% 53% 4% Germany 59% 39% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% NATO guaranteed the peace in Europe for the last 70 years, and it retains a vital role in the maintenance of peace and security on the Continent. Though NATO played a significant role in the security of Europe in the past, the world has changed since the end of the Cold War and NATO is no longer as important. Our approach to security should be rethought. Don't know 3

4 Opinions on Russia s role in Europe: Which statement is closer to your opinion? Hungary 26% 54% 19% Poland 51% 35% 14% Czech Republic 36% 59% 4% Slovakia 22% 75% 4% Germany 34% 61% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Russia is a continuous, external threat to Europe, and must be countered by a strong security alliance. Russia should be considered a partner in European security, and brought into European security structures. Keeping Russia out makes us less secure. Don't know 4

5 Opinions on investing in security: Which statement is closer to your opinion? Hungary 33% 67% Poland 47% 38% 15% Czech Republic 48% 52% Slovakia 35% 65% Germany 30% 66% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Current security threats mean [country] should invest more money in defense and security, even if this means having less money available for other things like pensions, healthcare, and education. The current security threats are not serious enough to justify increased defense spending. The resources should instead be used for other things like pensions, healthcare, and education. Don t know * For Poland Don t know outlier response, see Poland - Detailed Methodology, Slide 3. 5

6 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? The security of your country would be better protected by remaining neutral, rather than being forced to choose sides between NATO and Russia. Germany -40% 53% Slovakia -24% 73% Czech Republic -34% 61% Poland -28% 53% Hungary -27% 58% Agree Disagree 6

7 Public opinion toward foreign countries and institutions Five point scale, 1 to 5 grades. Mostly unfavorable Very unfavorable Unfavorable (1+2) Mostly favorable Very favorable Favorable (4+5) Russia China Austria Germany EU USA Croatia NATO Base: Total population

8 Countries and institutions that support Serbia and have the best partnership relations with Serbia In your opinion which state or international institution supports Serbia the most and with which Serbia has the best partnership relations? Russia European Union China Germany International Monetary Fund (IMF) Austria United States of America NATO Other None DK/ Refusal Base: Total target population

9 Who helps and invests into Serbia most of all to develop these areas? Who helps and invests into Serbia most of all to develop these areas? EU Russia China DK/ Refusal None of the above Education Development of infrastructure (building and modernisation of roads, bridges...) Development of agriculture Development of entrepreneurship and small businesses Employment, creating new jobs Trade, export of domestic products Healthcare Energy (gas supply) Culture and sport Environmental protection Security Rule of Law & Good governance Base: Total target population

10 The most acceptable option for supplying Serbia with gas? As you probably know, Serbia is one of the countries whose main gas supplier is Russia and the agreement was signed with Russia about supplying Serbia with gas till However, the European Energy Community keeps claiming that this agreement violates the rule of competition, or that it prevents other stakeholders to enter the Serbian market. What would you consider the most acceptable option for supplying Serbia with gas? Serbia should be supplied with gas by Russia only 30 Serbia should be supplied with gas by Russia and the EU 18 Serbia should be supplied with gas by the EU only 3 Serbia should be supplied with gas from where it is cheaper 42 Don't know 6 Base: Total target population

11 North American Energy WHAT (MIGHT) BE IN STORE FROM NEW ADMINISTRATION

12 Washington perspective North American Energy Platform New swing producer, provide stability and predictability to the market Trump Administration Energy Dominance Not just fracking Assist allies and penalize adversaries All of the above Exploit all types of energy to achieve goals

13 North American Energy Platform $100 billion in trade between Canada, United States, and Mexico Huge expansion of infrastructure Three new pipelines to Mexico, three new to Canada, Plus Keystone XL Exports rising, and net imports dropping rapidly New swing producer Production prices dropping Easy to stop and start well life cycle, etc. Large, diversified market in politically stable region will be able to provide low-cost, marginal supply to keep prices low and steady

14 Growth in Shale Production

15 Trump Administration Energy Dominance May sound silly, but it is not just Trump speaking this way Interior Secretary Zinke speaking at Heritage tomorrow: A Vision for American Energy Dominance Reduce barriers, promote exports, provide energy security to allies Production, permitting were curtailed under Obama Administration Offshore royalties: $18 billion in 2008, $2.6 billion in 2016 On-shore leases first 7 months 2016: $11.5 million; 2017 $146 million New FERC Chairman Chatterjee legal certainty, ending state energy plans, politicization of pipelines (3 times the time and cost) $1.1 trillion in private investment in infrastructure in US All energy sources, grid reliability, cyber security, legal certainty Assist allies, penalize adversaries China/North Korea

16 Penalizing adversaries

17 All of the above Not Just Fracking Research continuing into advanced batteries, solar, and other new projects Wind is Huge Texas and Rick Perry Clean coal Gasification Advanced Combustion Carbon Capture New $36 million research grants approved September 22 Transitional China, India and others Politically potent Center-right groups Voters in West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, others

18 Clean Coal Gasification Breaks down coal and other feedstocks (biomass, municipal waste) into various gasses Reduces So x and No x to near zero Increases thermal efficiency by 50%, with potential increases of 100% or more 40% reduction in CO 2 emissions Also produces other useful industrial chemicals Tampa Electric s Polk Power Station 313 megawatts, 98% reduction in sulfur, 90% reduction in No x Wabash River Repower Project 292 megawatts, combined cycle