Make American Energy Great Again: Impacts of the Trump Administration on Natural Gas Markets

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1 GTI: Accelerating Shale Gas Growth Make American Energy Great Again: Impacts of the Trump Administration on Natural Gas Markets David Wochner, Partner and Practice Area Leader Policy & Regulatory Beijing, China, 15 May 2017 Copyright 2017 by K&L Gates LLP. All rights reserved.

2 klgates.com 2

3 The Trump Administration

4 TRUMP ON ENERGY We re going to have beautiful, clean coal. Maryland, February 24, 2017 We will become, and stay, totally independent of any need to import energy from the OPEC cartel or any nations hostile to our interests. North Dakota, May 26, 2016 [W]ind is very problematic and I m not saying I m against those things. I m for everything. I m for everything. Herman Cain Radio, October 25, 2016 klgates.com 4

5 AN AMERICA FIRST ENERGY PLAN One of President Trump s top campaign issues Reduce regulations to increase production and extraction of American resources Focus: Coal (especially jobs for coal miners), oil & gas Rescind Obama-era policies Clean Power Plan Climate Action Plan Waters of the US rule Open to raising gas tax? What about a carbon tax? klgates.com 5

6 EXECUTIVE ACTIONS 2 out, 1 in order Incremental costs for new regs in 2017 = $0 Regulatory freeze until Trump-appointed agency head can review prospective regulations Exceptions for emergencies relating to health, safety, financial, or national security matters Regulation review task force Federal hiring freeze klgates.com 6

7 EXECUTIVE ACTIONS Advance Keystone XL, Dakota Access Pipelines Promote infrastructure projects Buy American but at what cost And not always: Keystone XL exemption Signed: Congressional Review Act resolutions Interior s Stream Protection Rule SEC s rule mandating disclosure of energy extracting companies payments to foreign governments Failed to overturn methane reduction rule More on this later klgates.com 7

8 EXECUTIVE ACTIONS Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth Two categories of regulatory programs under consideration by the Trump Administration Rescind immediately Climate Action Plan Social Cost of Carbon White House NEPA guidance regarding climate change, GHGs Methane reduction strategy Rulemaking required Review Clean Power Plan Review rule on new/modified electricity sources Lift moratorium on federal coal leases klgates.com 8

9 AMERICA FIRST BUDGET BLUEPRINT FY2018 Slim Budget Outline: Light on Details Department of Energy Gut ARPA-E, Title 17 loan guarantee program Limit Fossil Energy, EERE offices Support nuclear cleanup, NNSA, grid resiliency Environmental Protection Agency Largest cut to single agency (31%) Eliminates 3,200 positions and more than 50 programs Department of the Interior 12% cut Prioritizes energy production klgates.com 9

10 MEET PRESIDENT TRUMP S ENERGY TEAM klgates.com 10

11 SECRETARY PERRY S PRIORITIES Use experience as Governor of Texas to manage large bureaucracy, carry out campaign agenda Maintain scientific mission Focus on nuclear, including Yucca Mountain Support LNG exports, all the above energy strategy Approved Golden Pass LNG export application Developed wind projects in Texas Reassessment of energy efficiency regulations and agency s use of the social cost of carbon klgates.com 11

12 ADMINISTRATOR PRUITT S PRIORITIES [W]e must reject, as a nation, the false paradigm, that if you're pro-energy, you're anti-environment, and if you're proenvironment, you're anti-energy. I utterly reject that narrative. Former Oklahoma AG, supportive of shale development in the state Pruitt sued EPA 14 times (recused from those cases) Back to basics approach Task forces to offer deregulatory recommendations by May 15 Paris Agreement was a bad deal for America Rumors of consolidating regional offices from 10 to 8 klgates.com 12

13 SECRETARY ZINKE S PRIORITIES A Teddy Roosevelt Republican from Montana Working with states, local communities and field staff Rollback on regulations impacting oil and gas development on federal lands Methane emissions rulemaking will require agency action because Congress could not overturn the rule Some states may try to counteract the deregulation effort All the above energy strategy, including hydrocarbons and wind Reversed Bureau of Ocean Energy Management s decision to deny permits for seismic investigations Bureau of Land Management will be key klgates.com 13

14 FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION Independent agency so not subject to President s agenda, but President Trump will be able to nominate at least 4 commissioners during his 4-year term Currently functioning without a quorum Only 2 commissioners, down to 1 as early as June 30 2 nominees announced on May 8; 1 additional nominee rumored No substantive decisions on pending contested proceedings No decisions on pending rulemakings Will remain focused on critical issues impacting natural gas and power markets, especially transportation for shale gas klgates.com 14

15 FERC NATURAL GAS ISSUES Wholesale sales and transportation of natural gas in interstate commerce Pipeline infrastructure to support new production in nontraditional production areas Some opposition to new gas infrastructure from states Potential efforts from states with Democratic governors to stop the buildout of natural gas pipelines, leading to direct impacts on gas markets January 2017: Request for comments on FERC s guidelines related to cultural resources investigations No direct link to Dakota Access, but hard to imagine it is unrelated Comments were due March 27 FERC-initiated investigations into pipeline rates klgates.com 15

16 FERC - ELECTRIC INDUSTRY ISSUES Gas-Electric Coordination Becoming a critical issue as gas emerges as a prevalent fuel for baseload generation as coal units retire and renewable sources come online that require back-up generation Interested parties filed comments with FERC in 2012 At FERC s direction, industry group (NAESB) continues working through gas-electric coordination State Policies and Wholesale Markets Multiple complaints filed at FERC against state policies intended to benefit certain resource types (e.g., New York s zero emission credits for nuclear plants) Cybersecurity Trump executive order on cybersecurity issued 11 May 2017 At the same time, FERC issued an NOI on modifying cybersecurity rules related to the protection of control centers klgates.com 16

17 The 115 th Congress

18 CONGRESSIONAL AGENDA Big items need administration guidance Speech to Congress Feb. 28 low on energy specifics Prime agenda: Campaign Promises vs. Necessities Budget reconciliation Process to repeal (and replace ) ACA/Obamacare Narrowly passed House on May 5 Process to implement tax reform Congressional Review Act (CRA) 13 Obama Administration rules overturned Failed to overturn Interior s methane rules Regulatory, Dodd-Frank reforms Government funding for FY 2018 Debt ceiling in the fall klgates.com 18

19 CONGRESSIONAL AGENDA Energy Policy Modernization Act Significant bipartisan support, but stymied in 114th Congress Members looking at short-, medium-, and long-term goals for 115 th Congress Summer 2017 FERC nominations Power grid Oil and gas infrastructure Sen. Lisa Murkowski s (R-AK) last term as Energy Committee chairman Larger infrastructure plan Permitting reform will be critical component Possible bipartisan support? To date, little guidance from Administration klgates.com 19

20 APPROPRIATIONS: POWER OF THE PURSE Huge wins for appropriators and Democrats in FY2017 omnibus Mostly maintained funding for EPA, DOE, regional initiatives Limited number of poison pill riders, such as barring payments to the Green Climate Fund Highlights potential issues the administration will run into getting the steep budget cuts it outlined in its proposal 60 vote threshold for legislation will continue to be big hurdle Process for FY 2018 starts late-may klgates.com 20

21 CONGRESS IS IT CRIPPLED? Driving the Dysfunction? The Freedom Caucus Growing pains moving from opposition to governing party Pushed major unpopular concessions into healthcare bill making the bill dead on arrival in the Senate Tax Reform: A GOP Priority Border Adjustment Tax Endorsed by House Rs; Senators dismiss the proposal Significant impacts on all energy sectors Oh, and 2018 election cycle is coming klgates.com 21

22 David L. Wochner, Partner K&L Gates LLP 1601 K Street NW Washington, DC

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