UDK ( )"1961/2011" Original scientific work

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Archibald Johnson
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1 Ј,. XI, DEMOGRAPHY vol. XI 2014 a UDK ( )"1961/2011" Original scientific work Ц Ј Њ Ш Ј :, - ђ -, -, , :,,,, Abstract: Spatial aspects of demographic development systems, which are influenced by the relations between population growth and its components of natural increase and migration rate known as Clark's models of types of population movements, were introduced in Yugoslav literature in the 1970s and are used until today in empirical analyzes of population development of Serbia. This indicator in our literature is frequently used to assess the achieved state of demographic transition flows. Objective work is just a general overview of the transition types of population trends in the past half century, and intertwining transitional trends in the natural renewal and migration of the population in Vojvodina, based on which is formed the total population potentials in the period from to Key words: Vojvodina, population, types of movement, emigration, immigration, - ђ,, ,

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3 Vanja Javor 15,7% , ,, -. XX Ј -, -, -., -. - Ј, -. -,,,, ђ, -,,,,,, (., 2005: 50).,, ,., ( ) -,., ђ - ђ (.,.,., 2005:111) ђ -, - (,.,,.,,., 2012:36). - - (,., 2003:66)., ђ - ( ), -,. ( ),. 197

4 , ,,,, (,.,,., Ј -,., 2014:379). - 78,3%, -,,. 1, 21,7%. 63,0%,. -, (15,2%). Ј - ђ. 93,3%, 2/3.. -, 6,7% (,, ) ,,. - 1/3 -, 2/3. -,, 30,4%. 2/3,, 30,4% -. -, (15,2%). - 4/5, 1/3 -., -, , ђ , -, -,,, (., 2007:116).,, а а а а

5 Vanja Javor. (52,2%),. 1., Ј Ш % % % % % E ,3 9 19,6 6 13, E2 5 10,9 2 4,3 3 6, E ,1 5 10,9 7 15, E , , , ,6 E1 - E , , , , , , ,8 6 13,0 3 6,6 1 2, ,6 1 2, ,0 1 2, ,4 5 10, , ,8 6 13, ,6 8 17, а а а а E1 7 15,2 6 13, ,8 2 4,3 - - E2 4 8,7 1 2,2 3 6, E3 5 10, , ,2 E4 1 2,2 7 15, , , ,7 E1 - E , , , , , , , ,6 6 13,0 1 2, ,2 1 2, ,9 1 2, , ,2 3 6, , , , , , , , а а а а E1 4 8,8 5 11, E2 7 15,6 6 13,3 3 6, E , ,8 2 4, E4 1 2, , , , ,4 E1 - E , , , , , ,7 6 13,3 6 13,3 3 6,7 1 2, ,2 6 13, ,2 5 11, , ,8 2 4, ,7 7 15,5 8 17, ,9 3 6, , 13,0%, ђ ( 1)

6 58,7%.. 1/3,, -,. 82,3%, 71,2%.,,., -, -, , 2/3., 1/3,. ( 4).,,. 2/3,,,, 1/3. -,,, (,., 2007:112) ( 4),. ђ ( ) 82,6%, -., ,. -. (10,8%),, - ( 1), - 200

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12 ђ.. :.,. (2005)... 1 (4), ,. (1978).,. :. (2012) ,. :. (2014). 1948, 1953, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, ,. : -. Vanja Javor TRANSITION TYPES OF POPULATION TRENDS OF VOJVODINA FROM TO Summary Comparative analysis of changes in population dynamics on the territory of Vojvodina for the last five intercensus periods, applying the types of general population trends shows the advantages of this indicator, which is a very simple way to express very complex relations of population components. Although these indicators in our literature are used since 1970s, they do not lose their significance. During the last decades of the 20th century, there have been significant changes in the transition types of movement of the population of Vojvodina which is related to the fact that natural reproduction below the population replacement affected almost the entire territory of Vojvodina, in urban, and other settlements. As a consequence the dominance of emigration types is expressed, especially type extinction of the population in which both components of population dynamics are negative. This is reflected in the decrease of number of immigration municipalities and increase the share of municipalities with emigration character. In the last decade of the 20th century in terms of the war and disintegration of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the influx of refugees, exiled and displaced population to Vojvodina, in the short term have changed relations of natural increase and migration rate as the components of population dynamics, some municipalities of emigration exceeds in immigration types. During this period ( ) compared to the previous observed, even two thirds of municipalities belonged to the immigration type. In the first decade of the 21st century, after the short-term altered state continued the negative trend from the 1980s, and thus more than four fifths of municipalities were affected by the exodus. The most unfavorable exodic trend (trend extinction of the population) are affecting urban settlements and community centers in 72% of the municipalities, while other settlements affected by this trend are in 93% of municipalities. Among immigration municipalities set aside are those belonging to the trend of very weak recovery immigration. 206

J 2 I II III ђ IV 25 V VI

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