CONSENSUS FORECAST. Bangladesh July Contributors BANGLADESH 2 CALENDAR 5 NOTES 7

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1 CONSENSUS FORECAST July 215 BANGLADESH 2 CALENDAR 5 NOTES 7 PUBLICATION DATE 23 June 215 FORECASTS COLLECTED 16 June - 22 June 215 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 22 June 215 NEXT EDITION 21 July 215 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior RICARD TORNÉ Senior OLGA COSCODAN CARL KELLY TERESA KERSTING DIRINA MANÇELLARI ANGELA BOUZANIS ROBERT HILL ERIC DENIS MIRIAM DOWD Editor

2 Outlook moderates LONG-TERM TRENDS 3-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): 859 1,215 1,591 GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Public Debt (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): Eric Denis 1 GDP variation in % 2 Inflation in % s expanded a solid 6.5% in FY 214/215, which marked the largest expansion since FY 211/212. The result came on the back of strong domestic demand, with particular dynamism in private consumption and public investment. However, the political crisis that followed the controversial elections in 214 and resulted in violent countrywide protests organized by the opposition party in the three first months of 215 significantly affected investor confidence. The garment industry, which accounts for around 8% of s exports, was particularly impacted and has thus lost many orders to competing countries. While violent protests have stopped, the political environment will likely remain tense and highly polarized. In June, the government announced an aggressive budget for FY 215/216 with the goal of lifting growth to above 7.%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists project that will expand 6.5% in FY 215/216. The panel sees GDP growing 6.7% in FY 216/217. Inflation inched down from 6.3% in April to 6.2% in May. Panelists expect inflation to average 6.4% in 215. In 216, the panel expects inflation to average 6.1%. 3 Current Account % of GDP 15 1 Asia (ex Japan) World 15 1 Asia (ex Japan) 1 5 Asia (ex Japan) GDP evolution of forecasts 5 Inflation evolution of forecasts 6 Current Account evol. of fcst days ago 6 days ago 3 days ago Current days ago 6 days ago 3 days ago Current days ago 6 days ago 3 days ago Current FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 2

3 Economic Indicators 29/1-218/19 Annual Data 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19 Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) ,9 1,215 1,341 1,453 1,585 1,733 GDP (USD bn) GDP (BDT tn) 7,981 9,158 1,552 11,989 13,437 15,136 17,82 19,273 21,76 24,45 Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) Exchange Rate (BDT per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (BDT per USD, aop) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Notes and sources All real, monetary and external sector data refer to fiscal year (1 July to 3 June, i.e. FY15 = 214/15), except fiscal balance, public debt, inflation, exchange rate and external debt (calendar year: 1 January to 31 December). Long-term chart period from 1999/ to 218/19 unless otherwise stated.all data are from the Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and the Central Bank of (CBB). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BBS. 2 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: BBS. 3 Current account balance, % of GDP. Source: CBB. 4 GDP, evolution of 215/16 and 216/17 forecasts during the last 4 months. 5 Inflation, evolution of 215 and 216 forecasts during the last 4 months. 6 Current account balance, evolution of 215/16 and 216/17 forecasts during the last 4 months. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 3

4 FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Official name: People's Republic of Capital: Dhaka (14.4 m) cities: Chittagong (6.5 m) Area (km2): 143,998 Population (million, 214 est.): 166 Population density (per km2, 214): 1,155 Pop. growth rate (%, 214 est.): 1.6 Life expectancy (years, 214 est.): 7.7 Illiteracy rate (%, 21): 42.3 Language: Bengali, English Measures: Metric & local systems Time: GMT+6 in the Region Population %-share in Asia (ex Japan) Pakistan 5.% Indonesia 6.8% 12.8% India 34.1% 4.3% China 37.% GDP %-share in Asia (ex Japan) Indonesia 5.% Korea 7.6% India 11.9% 15.8% 1.1% China 58.5% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (213) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants):.7 Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 67.1 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 6.5 Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants):.6 Energy (212) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 85 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,94 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h): 47.3 Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h): 41.5 Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 5.5 Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 114 CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 63.5 Economic Structure GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % Agriculture Industry Services Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Transportation (213) Airports: 18 Railways (km): 2,622 Roadways (km): 21,269 Waterways (km): 8,37 Chief Ports: Chittagong Trade Structure -2 Primary markets share in % Political Data President: Abdul Hamid Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Last elections: 5 January 214 Next elections 218 Central Bank Governor: Atiur Rahman Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: Ba3 Stable S&P: BB- Stable Fitch Ratings: BB- Stable 31.7% Asia ex- Japan 7.3% France 5.2% Exports U.K. 8.5% U.S.A. 15.2% Germany 13.3% EU % 34.3% Primary products share in % MENA 9.% Malaysia 5.3% EU % Imports India 14.% Asia ex-japan 13.% China 18.6% Strengths Competitive clothing sector Large remittances inflows Low external debt. Weaknesses Exports dependent on garment industry Underdeveloped infrastructure Social tensions due to rising inequality Manufact. Products 92.4% 7.6% Exports Agricultural Raw Mat. 7.3% Mineral Fuels 9.4% Food 18.5% 2.2% Imports Manufact. Products 62.5% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 4

5 Economic Release Calendar Calendar July 215 Date Country Event 23 June China June HSBC Manufacturing PMI 23 June Singapore May Consumer Prices 24 June Taiwan May Industrial Production 24 June Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**) 25 June Philippines Central Bank Meeting 25 June Vietnam June Consumer Prices (**) 28 June Vietnam Q2 215 National Accounts (**) 28 June Vietnam June Industrial Production (**) 29 June Hong Kong May Retail Sales 29 June New Zealand June Business Confidence (**) 3 June Korea July Business Confidence 3 June Korea May Industrial Production 3 June Thailand May Manufacturing Production 3 June Thailand May Merchandise Trade 1 July China June Manufacturing PMI 1 July India June HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 July Indonesia June HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 July Indonesia June Consumer Prices 1 July Korea June HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 July Korea June Consumer Prices 1 July Singapore June SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (**) 1 July Taiwan June HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 July Vietnam June HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 July Thailand June Consumer Prices 3 July Australia May Retail Sales 3 July India June HSBC Services PMI 3 July Malaysia May Merchandise Trade 6 July Hong Kong June HSBC PMI 7 July Australia Central Bank Meeting 7 July Philippines June Consumer Prices 7 July Taiwan June Merchandise Trade 7 July Taiwan June Consumer Prices 9 July China June Consumer Prices 9 July China June Producer Prices 9 July China June Merchandise Trade (**) 9 July Korea Central Bank Meeting 9 July Malaysia Central Bank Meeting 1 July Australia July Consumer Confidence (**) 1 July Australia June Business Confidence (**) 1 July China June New Yuan loans (**) 1 July China June Money Supply (M2) (**) 1 July India May Industrial Production 1 July India June Consumer Prices FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 5

6 Economic Release Calendar Calendar July 215 Date Country Event 1 July Malaysia May Industrial Production 1 July Philippines May Exports 13 July Indonesia May Retail Sales (**) 14 July India June Wholesale Prices 14 July Indonesia Central Bank Meeting 14 July Singapore Q2 215 National Accounts (**) 15 July China Q2 215 National Accounts 15 July China June Industrial Production 15 July China June Retail Sales 15 July China June Fixed Asset Investment 15 July Indonesia June Merchandise Trade 15 July Malaysia June Consumer Prices 15 July Philippines May OFW Remittances 15 July Sri Lanka June Consumer Prices (**) 16 July New Zealand Q2 215 Consumer Prices 17 July India June Merchandise Trade (**) 17 July Singapore June Merchandise Trade 18 July China June Property Prices (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 6

7 July 215 Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: Asia-Pacific (21 countries): Australia,, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asia (2 countries):, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asia (ex Japan) (19 countries):, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN, 1 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. East and South Asia (9 countries):, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Taiwan. Newly Industrialized Economies (NIE, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 215 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 657, E-81 Barcelona, Spain info@focus-economics.com DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 7

8 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,6 unique indicators in 111 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. REDUCE RISK WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. KEY INDICATORS INCLUDE REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate ASEAN Countries East & South Asia Central America & Caribbean Latin America Eastern Europe Major Economies Euro Area Nordic Economies Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand & Vietnam; Australia, New Zealand, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Taiwan; Australia, New Zealand Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico & Trinidad and Tobago Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom & United States), plus an overview of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden & Iceland Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia & United Arab Emirates Angola, Botswana, Cote d Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda & Zambia FocusEconomics Gran Via 657, 81, Barcelona, Spain subscribers@focus-economics.com