Economic Gains from Educational Reform by US States, *

Transcription

1 Economic Gains from Educational Reform by US States, * Eric A. Hanushek, Jens Ruhose, and Ludger Woessmann Journal of Human Capital * We gratefully acknowledge comments from the editor Lars Lefgren and two anonymous referees. This research was supported by the Kern Family Foundation and by the Hewlett Foundation. Hanushek: Hoover Institution, Stanford University, CESifo, IZA, and NBER, hanushek@stanford.edu; Ruhose: Leibniz Universität Hannover and IZA, ruhose@wipol.uni-hannover.de; Woessmann: University of Munich, ifo Institute, CESifo, and IZA, woessmann@ifo.de.

2 Online Appendix B. Projection Model and Detailed Results This appendix presents an overview of the projection model that is used to calculate the gains from a reformed education system. See Hanushek and Woessmann (2011, 2015a) for a detailed description of projection models of educational reforms. Reform Phases The projection model follows four phases: Phase 1 ( ): Introducing the reform In the first 10 years of the reform, the additional growth in GDP per capita is given by: Δ tt = ggggggggggh cccccccccccccccccccccc ΔNNNNNNNN 1 tt Δ tt 1 wwwwwwwwwwwwww llllllll 10 The growth coefficient is obtained from the growth regressions in section 4 and is set to for the main results. ΔNNNNNNNN represents the growth in test score that is due to the reform. Each year, only a fraction of the workforce is replaced by younger workers who have obtained a better education. This is indicated by 1/working life, with the working life set to 40 years. The term tt indicates that it takes 10 years for the reform to be completely enrolled and fully effective. Phase 2 ( ): Replacing older workers by workers of the reform After the first 10 years, the reform is fully effective and workers that join the workforce now bring with them the total benefit from the reformed education system. However, for the period of a working life, there will be still workers that have received their education under the old educational system. They will be replaced by the new workers. During the next 30 years, the additional growth can be described as follows: Δ tt = ggggggggggh cccccccccccccccccccccc ΔNNNNNNNN 1 wwwwwwkkiiiiii llllllll + Δtt 1 Phase 3 ( ): Replacing workers who only partially obtained better education After 40 years (the time span of a working life), all workers that have not gone through the reformed system are replaced by new workers. However, workers that obtained their education

3 during the phase-in of the reform only partially profited from the new education system. They are now replaced by workers who received the benefits from the fully effective education system. The additional growth for the next 10 years is therefore: Δ tt = ggggggggggh cccccccccccccccccccccc ΔNNNNNNNN 1 wwwwwwwwwwwwww llllllll (Δtt 40 Δ tt 41 ) + Δ tt 1 Phase 4 (after 2065): All workers have gone through the better education system In this phase, the entire workforce has received the better education. The annual growth rate is now increased by the constant long-run growth effect: Δ = ggggggggggh cccccccccccccccccccccc ΔNNNNNNNN GDP with and without Reform Our model assumes that without the reform GDP at time t would be: tt GGGGPP nnnn rrrrrroooooo tt 1 = GGGGPP nnnn rrrrrrrrrrrr (1 + pppppppppppppppppp ggggggggggh) Potential growth is set to 1.5 percent each year, based on the projected growth in labor productivity from the Congressional Budget Office. 1 With reform, the annual growth rate is increased by Δ tt : tt GGGGPP rrrrrrrrrrrr tt 1 = GGGGPP rrrrrrrrrrrr (1 + pppppppppppppppppp ggggggggggh + Δ tt ) Cumulative Effect of the Reform The total value of the reform is given by the discounted differences between GDP with and without reform. We calculate the gains from the improved system over 80 years, about the expected life span of a child that is born today. The discount rate in the baseline scenario is set to 3 percent. TTTTTTTTTT vvvvvvvvvv oooo tthee rrrrrrrrrrrr tt=2095 tt = GGGGPP rrrrrrrrrrrr tt=2015 tt GGGGPP nnnn rrrrrrrrrrrr (1 + dddddddddddddddd rrrrrrrr) (tt 2015) 1 Congressional Budget Office An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 (August 2014), p. 47, Table (accessed 10/19/2014).

4 To put this total value in perspective, we can express it in percent of current GDP: TTTTttaaaa vvvvvvvvvv oooo rrrrrrrrrrrr VVVVVVVVVV oooo tthee rrrrrrrrrrrr iiii % oooo cccccccccccccc GGGGGG = GGGGPP nnnn rrrrrrrrrrrr We can also relate it to the total discounted future GDP over the same period: VVVVVVVVVV oooo tthee rrrrrrrrrrrr iiii % oooo dddddddddddddddddddd ffffffffffff GGGGGG = tt=2095 tt=2015 TTTTTTTTTT vvvvvvvvvv oooo rrrrrrrrrrrr 100 (1 + dddddddddddddddd rrrrrrrr) (tt 2015) tt GGGGPP nnnn rrrrrrrrrrrr Alternatively, we can also calculate by how much GDP is higher due to the reform in any given year, such as 2095: GGGGGG iiiiiiiiiiiiiiii iiii yyyyyyyy 2095 (iiii %) = GGGGPP rrrrrrrrrrrr GGGGPP nnnn rrrrrrrrrrrr GGGGPP nnnn rrrrrrrrrrrr

5 Table B1: Effect on GDP of Scenario I: Improvement by a Quarter Standard Deviation Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score USA 43, Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California 5, Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida 2, Georgia 1, Hawaii Idaho Illinois 1, Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts 1, Michigan 1, Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey 1, New Mexico New York 3, North Carolina 1, North Dakota Ohio 1, Oklahoma Oregon

6 Table B1 (continued) Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score Pennsylvania 1, Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas 3, Utah Vermont Virginia 1, Washington 1, West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Notes: Present value of future increases in GDP until 2095 due to reform, expressed in billion 2015 dollars, as a percentage of current GDP, and as a percentage of discounted future GDP. GDP increase in year 2095 indicates by how much GDP in 2095 is higher due to the reform (in percent). Long-run growth increase refers to increase in annual growth rate (in percentage points) once the whole labor force has reached higher level of educational achievement. Increase in NAEP score refers to the ultimate increase in educational achievement due to the reform. See text for parameters of the projection model.

7 Table B2: Effect on GDP of Scenario II: Improvement to Top-Performing State Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score USA 69, Alabama 1, Alaska Arizona 1, Arkansas California 15, Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia 1,953 1, Florida 4, Georgia 2, Hawaii Idaho Illinois 2, Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana 2, Maine Maryland 1, Massachusetts Michigan 1, Minnesota Mississippi 1, Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York 5, North Carolina 1, North Dakota Ohio 1, Oklahoma Oregon

8 Table B2 (continued) Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score Pennsylvania 1, Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee 1, Texas 5, Utah Vermont Virginia 1, Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming See notes to Online Appendix Table B1.

9 Table B3: Effect on GDP of Scenario III: Improvement to Best State in the Region Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score USA 32, Alabama Alaska Arizona 1, Arkansas California 9, Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia 1,448 1, Florida 2, Georgia 1, Hawaii Idaho Illinois 1, Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana 1, Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York 2, North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon

10 Table B3 (continued) Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming See notes to Online Appendix Table B1..

11 Table B4: Effect on GDP of Scenario IV: Getting Every Student at least to the Basic Level Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score USA 29, Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California 6, Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida 1, Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois 1, Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York 2, North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon

12 Table B4 (continued) Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score Pennsylvania 1, Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas 1, Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming See notes to Online Appendix Table B1.

13 Table B5: Effect on GDP of Scenario II with Single-State Improvement Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score USA 42, Alabama 1, Alaska Arizona Arkansas California 9, Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida 2, Georgia 1, Hawaii Idaho Illinois 1, Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana 1, Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan 1, Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York 2, North Carolina 1, North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon

14 Table B5 (continued) Value of reform (bn $) current GDP discounted future GDP GDP increase in year 2095 (in %) Long-run growth increase Increase in NAEP score Pennsylvania 1, Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee 1, Texas 3, Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming See notes to Online Appendix Table B1.

15 Online Appendix C. Computation of Test Score Gains for Scenario IV From NAEP, we know the percentage of students who perform below basic level for each state. Knowing that the Basic Level for eight grade math requires at least 262 points (on the original NAEP scale) 2 and assuming that test scores are distributed normally (with μμ = , σσ 2 = 36.20), we can calculate the average test score for students performing below basic level. The first step is to rescale the cutoff, so that it can be used with the adjusted NAEP scores, which have a standard deviation of 100 and a mean of 500 in 2011: ccccccccccff rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr = = Using this cutoff, the average test score for students below basic level is computed by 440 xx=0 ff(xx) xx 440 xx=0 ff(xx), with f(x) as the normal density function, which is parameterized with the statespecific mean test score and the state-specific standard deviation. The gain for bringing each student up to the basic level is then computed by ss (BB AA), where s is the share of students who perform below basic level, B is the threshold level for the basic level (B = 440), and A is the average test score for those below B. 2

16 Online Appendix D. Results for the Neoclassical Growth Model As noted above, in the economics literature on growth there have been differences of opinion on the best way to categorize the long-run growth pattern. A fundamental distinction is whether improved skills of the labor force lead to improved long-run growth rates or whether the improved skills lead to some increased growth in the short to medium run while economies move to a new steady state level, but no change in long-run growth rates. In the former (endogenous growth), the more skilled labor force is instrumental in continuing productivity improvements. This is the model underlying our growth projections reported so far. In the later (augmented neoclassical growth), there is an immediate gain since skills are one of the inputs determining GDP, but then growth converges back to the steady state rate. We can use our estimated growth models to project what would happen to future GDP in each state under the neoclassical growth path. In particular, we take the growth of the production frontier as 1.5 percent per year. The frontier is assumed to be what happens in the three states with the highest rate of U.S. patents California, New York, and Texas. 3 Other states will grow faster in the short run as they converge to the frontier states, but then will settle into the 1.5 percent long-run growth. For this alternative projection, we again consider the baseline model of Scenario I of a 0.25 standard deviation improvement. With the 80 year projection, the gains are only slightly smaller at 2.3 times current GDP as opposed to 2.6 times under the endogenous growth projections (Table 3). 4 The impact of this alternative clearly happens near the end of our projection period, so that GDP for the country in 2095 is 15.5 percent higher than the no-reform GDP, as opposed to 21.6 percent greater with endogenous growth. In sum, the neoclassical projections are somewhat smaller, but they do not change the overall conclusion of huge gains from skill improvement. This conclusion holds similarly across all of the scenarios. 3 From 1963 to 2013, California (18.7 percent), New York (8.2 percent), and Texas (6 percent) account for one third of all patents in the U.S. Source: TAF database maintained by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office [ 4 Detailed state-by-state results are available from the authors upon request.

17 Online Appendix E. Data Appendix This Appendix is from Hanushek, Ruhose, and Woessmann (2017). E.1: Construction of Years of Schooling Measures by State We compile average years of educational attainment for each U.S. state from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) data of the Minnesota Population Center (Ruggles et al. (2010)). We concentrate on the working-age population between 20 and 65 years. We also drop all respondents who are still in school at the time of the survey. For the years 1970 to 2000, we use the 1 percent (1970) and 5 percent (1980, 1990, and 2000) random samples of the American population. The 1 percent sample has about 4 million observations, the 5 percent samples have about 13 to 14 million observations. Beginning in the year 2001, we use census data from the American Community Survey (ACS). The ACS provides annual 1 percent random population samples (with smaller sample sizes between 2001 and 2004). The approximate sample size is 3 million observations each year. Survey weights in the census and the ACS allow us to calculate measures that are representative for the U.S. population. Until 1980, the Census reported directly the years of schooling or highest grade level completed of each individual. Beginning with the 1990 Census, the Census Bureau has changed the coding of educational categories and reports degrees (Bachelor, Master, etc.) instead. To translate the degree information into years of schooling, we use the estimates of average years of schooling of each degree provided by Jaeger (1997). 5 Substantial differences in the labor-market performance between GED holders and standard high school graduates (Heckman, Humphries, and Mader (2011)) warrant a special treatment of GED holders. Due to the weak labor-market position of GED holders, we assign them 10 rather than 12 years of schooling. Only the most recent survey waves identify GED holders in the Census data. We therefore estimate a constant share of GED holders among all high-school graduates from the pooled ACS samples. The pooled sample is restricted for each year to get approximately the same age cohort of people aged For example, for the year 2007, we use all people aged in 5 Some Census years only report educational categories that cover several years of schooling. For these years, we assume the same fraction for this educational category as in the closest survey with full information.

18 ACS 2008, in ACS 2009, and in 2010; for the year 1990, we use all people aged in ACS 2008, in ACS 2009, and in ACS Note that 1940 is not adjusted because the GED was introduced in Overall, the GED adjustment affects the average years of schooling only very little, though. In 2007, for example, 15 percent of those who would have received 12 years of schooling otherwise are now assigned 10 years of schooling, reducing the mean of the average years of schooling from to years. Put differently, accounting for GED holders raises the mean share of those with less than 12 years of schooling from 22.6 percent to 26.7 percent. Having computed the years of schooling of each individual i, the average years of schooling S in state s at time t is then given by combining individual years of schooling by the weighted share of individuals i with education level e in the state at the time: SS ssss = ii pppppppppppp weeeeeehtttt iiiiiiii ee yyyyyyyyyy oooo sssshoooooooooooo ee (E1.1) ii pppppppppppp wwwwwwwwhtttt iiiiii This yields the average years of schooling by state over time. E.2: Construction of Test Score Measures by State Our construction of cognitive skill measures for each U.S. state proceeds in four steps. This appendix provides methodological details on each step. First, we construct a constant measure of the mean test scores of students of each state (Online Appendix E.2.1). Second, we adjust the test scores of the working-age population of each state for interstate migration, thereby placing particular emphasis on the fact that interstate migration is selective (Online Appendix E.2.2). Third, test scores are adjusted for immigration from other countries, again with a special focus on selectivity (Online Appendix E.2.3). E.2.1 Construction of Mean State Test Scores The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) studies the educational achievement of American students in grades four and eight in different subjects (National Center for Education Statistics (2014)). In our main analysis, we focus on the mathematics score in grade eight, on which we focus the following description. But as far as possible, we also computed test scores based on reading and grade four, as well as on a combination of subjects and grades.

19 Since 1990, NAEP math tests have been administered on a representative scale at the state level every two to four years for most states. By 2003, test scores are available for all states. Adjustment of Pre-1996 Tests for Accommodation Since 1996, NAEP allows students with disabilities and English language learners specific accommodations to facilitate test participation. The NAEP test scores before 1996 (in 1990 and 1992) did not permit such accommodation, so that they have to be adjusted in order to be on a common scale with the subsequent tests. Therefore, we rescale the pre-1996 tests as follows: For 1996, NAEP test scores and standard deviations are available for tests with and without accommodation at the national level. By subtracting the 1996 U.S. mean without accommodation from the state score and dividing by the 1996 U.S. standard deviation without accommodation, we standardize test scores to mean 0 and standard deviation of 1. By multiplying the 1996 U.S. standard deviation with accommodation and adding the 1996 U.S. mean with accommodation, we bring each test score before 1996 to the same scale as the tests that permitted accommodation. That is, the pre-1996 waves are aligned to the post-1996 scale in the following way: ssssssssss aaaaaa ssss = ssssssssss ssssssss ssssssssss ssss mmmmmmmm UUUU,tt=1996 nnnnnn ssdd ssssssssss ssssssss ssssssssss UUUU,tt= 1996 ssss UUUU,tt= 1996 nnnnnn ssssssssss + mmmmmmmm UUUU,tt=1996 (E2.1) where ssssssssss ssss is the raw score (without accommodation) of state s at time t, mean refers to the U.S. national mean, sd refers to the U.S. standard deviation, same scale refers to scores without accommodation, and new scale refers to scores with accommodation. Normalization of Scales to Base Year 2011 Next, we normalize each scale eight-grade math, etc. to have a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 100 in the common base year This is done by subtracting from each test score the 2011 U.S. mean and dividing by the 2011 U.S. standard deviation and then multiplying by 100 and adding 500: ssssssssss ssssssssssssssss ssss = ssssssssss aaaaaa ssss mmmmmmmmuuuu, tt= (E2.2) ssss UUUU, tt=2011

20 Regression-based Estimation of Mean State Scores by State Fixed Effects Using the normalized scores, we estimate the average test score of each state over all test scores that are available until This is done by estimating state fixed effects in a regression with year fixed effects that take into account systematic differences over time, as well as in estimations that combine tests across subjects and grades grade-by-subject fixed effects that takes into account systematic differences between grades and subjects: 50 ssssssssss ssssssssssssssss ssssssss = ss=1 αα ss II ss + II gg II uu + II tt + εε ssssssss (E2.3) II ss is the fixed effect of state s that we are interested in. II tt are time fixed effects and II gg II uu are grade-by-subject fixed effects. By leaving out the indicators that represent math, grade eight, and the year 2011, all state fixed effects refer to this subject, grade, and year. The same adjustments and estimations can also be performed for different subsamples of the population, e.g., by education category of the parents. In further analysis, we estimate average standard deviations by employing the same fixed effects regression framework. 6 E.2.2 Adjustment for Interstate Migration Adjusting for State of Birth To be able to adjust the state skill measure for interstate migration, we start by computing the birthplace composition of each state from the Census data. In particular, we compute the population shares of people currently living in state s who were born in state s ( state locals ), those born in in another state k ( interstate migrants ), and those born in another country ( international immigrants ). Thus, the population share of individuals i from origin state/country o living in state s at time t is given by pppppppppppppppppppp sshaaaaaa oooooo = ii pppppppppppp wwwwwwwwhtttt iiiiiiii ii pppppppppppp wwwwwwwwhtttt iiiiii (E2.4) Each state is composed of individuals educated in other states. To adjust, at least partially, for the differences in schooling that these individuals brought with them to their current state of residence, we construct a series of composite test scores. The idea is that each person who is 6 Standard deviations are also adjusted to be on the same scale by ssss ssssssssssssssss ssss = ssss aaaaaa ssss ssssuuuu, tt= ssss UUUU, tt=

21 living in a state receives the test score of his home state. The baseline composite test score of state s at time t is then the weighted sum of test scores from all origin states o which are weighted by the fraction of people born in a particular origin o living in state s at time t: ssssssssss aaaaaa ssss = oo pppppppppppppppppppp sshaaaaaa oooooo sscccccccc oo (E2.5) Thus, each person currently living in a state is assigned the test score from the respective state of birth. The baseline composite test score thus assigns all locals the mean test score of the state of residence which is also their state of birth, assuming that the locals have not moved during their school career to another state. Assuming that internal migrants have not left their state of birth before finishing grade eight, all internal migrants receive the mean test score of their state of birth. In this variant, the international immigrants receive the mean score of their current state of residence. Adjusting for Selective Interstate Migration based on Educational Background To address selective interstate migration, we compute all population shares separately by educational background. We distinguish two educational categories: Persons with (at least some) university education and persons without university education. For each state, we also construct separate test scores by the education category of the parents (some university education or not). We then assign separate test scores by educational background e: ssssssssss ssssss ssss = ooee pppppppppppppppppppp sshaaaaaa ooeessss sscccccccc ooee (E2.6) For state locals, this adjusted score replaces the average test score of the state of residence with the average test score of the state of residence by education category (university / no university). Likewise, for in-migrants it adjusts the average test scores of by education category. The assumption is that we can assign the population with a university education the test score of children with parents who have a university degree, and equivalently for those without a university education. E.2.3 Adjustment for International Migration Our adjustment for international migration combines data from international achievement tests with population shares of immigrants from different countries of origin.

22 International Test Score Data We use international test score data from PISA, TIMSS, and PIRLS for international immigrants residing in one of the U.S. states. 7 As a first step, the international test data have to be rescaled onto a common scale with the national NAEP data (Hanushek, Peterson, and Woessmann (2012a)). To do so, we first standardize all international test scores by subtracting from each mean score on the international scale the U.S. mean value on the international scale by subject, grade, and year and divide this difference by the U.S. standard deviation on the international scale, also by subject, grade, and year. Next, we multiply the standardized value by the U.S. standard deviation of the NAEP score by subject, grade, and year and add the U.S. mean of the NAEP score by subject, grade, and year: ssssssssss aaaaaa ssssssss = ssssssssss iiiiii ll ssssssss mmmmmmmm UUUU,gggggg ssss iiiiii ll ssss NNNNNNNN NNNNNNNN UUUU,gggggg + mmmmmmmm UUUU,gggggg UUUU,gggggg (E2.7) where ssssssssss ssssssss is the raw international test score of country s at grade g in subject u in year t. To compute average test scores for each country, we proceed in the same way as for the national test data. The regression design takes into account systematic differences between grades, subjects, and years. The final estimate of the country average test score is then a country fixed effect: ssssssssss ssssssssssssssss ssssssss = ss αα ss II ss + II gg II uu II tttttttt + II tt + εε ssssssss (E2.8) where II ss is the fixed effect of country s that we are interested in. II tt are time fixed effects and II gg II uu II tttttttt are grade times subject times survey fixed effects. The survey fixed effects indicate whether we identify grade 4 in PIRLS or grade 4 in TIMSS. Thus, they are dummy variables for TIMSS, PIRLS, and PISA. Again, the same regression can be estimated for different subsamples of the population. 8 7 We draw the data from the International Data Explorer (IDE) of the National Center of Education Statistics ( 8 When estimating separate scores by the education category of the father, in PISA we use a simple average of the test scores in ISCED categories 0-4 for non-university education and ISCED categories 5a and 6 for university education. In TIMSS 1995 and 1999, we use the average of the categories until finished secondary for nonuniversity education and finished university for university education. In the subsequent TIMSS waves, we use ISCED categories 0-4 for non-university education and ISCED categories 5a and more than 5a for university education. The IDE does not report educational background variables for PIRLS and TIMSS grade 4.

23 Apart from the mean test score, we also estimate the performance of the 75 th and the 90 th percentile of students in each country. We also estimate the standard deviation. 9 In cases where a source country did not participate in the international achievement tests, we impute values from neighboring countries or regions. Table E1 reports the respective imputations for the main source countries of immigrants in the United States. Selectivity Adjustment of Home-Country Test Scores As discussed in the paper, the skills of migrants are not random draws from the homecountry skill distribution. To estimate the migrant selectivity for each country, we proceed in two steps. First, for each country of origin (country subscripts omitted), we calculate the selectivity parameter for school attainment as the percentile p of the home-country distribution from which the average immigrant to the U.S. is drawn: pp = ss pppppp UUUU 1 ss pppppp 2 hoooooo + ss ssssss pppppp UUUU ss hoooooo + 1 ss ssssss 2 hoooooo + ss tttttt pppppp ssssss UUUU ss hoooooo + ss hoooooo + 1 ss tttttt 2 hoooooo (E2.9) where the respective educational degrees of the population are given by pri = primary, sec = secondary, and ter = tertiary, s refers to the shares of the population with the respective degrees (with s pri + s sec + s ter =1), home refers to the population in the respective home country, and US refers to the immigrants from the specific home country living in the United States. Data are taken from Docquier, Lowell, and Marfouk (2009) and refer to the year Second, to adjust for skill selectivity within educational degrees, our baseline estimate uses the country-specific attainment selection parameter p to calculate the percentile of the cognitive skill distribution for the average immigrant as pp = pp + pp (1 pp). For each country, we know the mean and standard deviation of the test score distribution. Assuming a normal distribution, we can calculate the corresponding test score that is adjusted for international migrant selectivity: ssssssssss ssssssssssssssssssssss ssssssss = iiiiiiiiiiiiii(pp ) ssss ssssssssssssssss ssssssssssssssss ssssssss + ssssssssss ssssssss (E2.10) where iiiiiiiiiiiiii(pp ) are draws of the p * th percentile from a normal (0,1) distribution, ssssssssssssssss ssssssssss ssssssss is the average international test score of country s at grade g in subject u in year t, ssssssssssssssss and ssss ssssssss is the corresponding standard deviation. The comparison of ssssssssss ssssssssssssssssssssss ss in 9 Standard deviations are again adjusted to be on the same scale with NAEP.

24 math, grade 8, in the year 2007, using pp = 75 and pp = 90, respectively, with the available country-specific observed test scores at the 75 th and 90 th percentile, respectively, show that this prediction works well (correlations almost perfect with r = 99 percent in both cases). Population Shares of Immigrants from Different Countries of Origin Using Census data, we next calculate the population shares of those born outside the United States. Table E1 shows the main source countries of immigrants who came to the United States over the last 70 years. In calculating the share of immigrants from different origin countries in the birthplace composition of each state, we take into account the age of immigration. In particular, immigrants arriving in the United States before the age of 6 are assumed to have spent their school career in the U.S. school system, so they are assigned the NAEP score of their state of residence. Those who immigrated after the age of 20 are assigned the test score of their country of origin. And those who immigrated between ages 6 and 20 are assigned a weighted average of the two. Using the population shares of immigrants from different countries of origin as in equation (E2.4), we then basically proceed in the same way as with the national test score data. That is, we adjust the composite test score of each state by applying the selectivity-adjusted country-oforigin test scores for international immigrants.

25 Table E1: Main Source Countries Country of Birth Total Census Observations, Share of all immigrants (in percent) Imputation of international test scores Mexico 1,054, Philippines 192, Puerto Rico 184, NAEP Germany 138, India 136, Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand + Iran Canada 136, Cuba 115, Central America: El Salvador, Panama, Honduras, Trinidad&Tobago China 115, East Asia: Shanghai-China, Hong Kong, Macao-China, Mongolia, Taiwan (Chinese Taipei), Japan, Korea, Rep. Vietnam 111, Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand Italy 102, El Salvador 93, Korea 87, South Korea England 81, USA, Unknown State 72, NAEP Poland 71, Dominican Republic 67, Central America Japan 62, Jamaica 58, Central America Colombia 57, Guatemala 55, Central America Abroad, ns 52, Total Average Other USSR/Russia 44, USSR: Russia, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Taiwan 40, Haiti 40, Central America West Germany 36, Germany Iran 34, Ecuador 32, South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay Peru 32, Portugal 31, Honduras 31, Ireland 30, Greece 29, France 28, Brazil 25, United Kingdom 25, Hong Kong 25, Nicaragua 23, Central America Pakistan 23, Southeast Asia + Iran Guyana/British Guiana 22, South America Laos 21, Southeast Asia Trinidad and Tobago 21, Notes: Main source countries/regions of immigrants living in the United States. Only countries with a share of the total immigrant inflow of at least 0.5 percent. Averages over all available Census years. Imputation: Countries/ region by which test scores are imputed in cases without international test score data. Source: Authors calculations based on Ruggles et al. (2010).

26 Table E2: Selectivity of Migrant Sending Countries Country School-attainment selectivity Country School-attainment selectivity Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Mongolia England Indonesia Scotland Macedonia United Kingdom Botswana American Samoa Ghana Guam Southern Africa Japan Africa Overseas Territories Algeria U.S. Virgin Islands Morocco Israel/Palestine South Africa Kazakhstan Egypt Panama Northern Africa Colombia Tunisia Estonia Bahrain Baltic States Iran Denmark Qatar New Zealand Saudi Arabia Trinidad and Tobago United Arab Emirates Sweden Singapore Western Europe Kuwait Belgium Liechtenstein Former USSR without Russia Switzerland Chile Taiwan (Chinese Taipei) Former USSR Southeast Asia + Iran Kyrgyzstan Brazil Hungary Turkey Finland Southeast Asia South America Palestinian Nat'l Auth Total Average Thailand Netherlands Malaysia Argentina Asia Lithuania Middle East Northern Europe France Ukraine Georgia Moldova East Asia Oceania Lebanon Syrian Arab Republic Hong Kong Europe Macao-China Iceland Azerbaijan Jordan Spain Antarctica Philippines Austria Latvia Montenegro Bulgaria Serbia (continued on next page)

27 Table E2 (continued) Country School-attainment selectivity Country School-attainment selectivity Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Slovak Rep Norway Czechoslovakia Central America Romania Bosnia and Herzegovina Eastern Europe Malta Australia Poland Czech Rep Croatia Yugoslavia Ireland Cyprus Honduras Oman Germany Peru Portugal Armenia Italy Korea, Rep Greece Albania El Salvador Southern Europe Canada Uruguay North America Luxembourg Mexico Notes: Selectivity of U.S. immigrants based on their home-country distribution of school attainment. See section E2.3 for details.