Playing to Win California Moving & Storage Association Terry R. Head, President International Association of Movers

Transcription

1 Playing to Win California Moving & Storage Association 2012 Terry R. Head, President International Association of Movers

2 IAM Who We Are: The largest international trade association and advocacy group for household goods forwarders, movers and service providers Founded in 1962 to represent the interests of military TSPs; broadened scope to include commercial business in 1970 s Currently provide the largest networking opportunity for business development within the moving industry Membership today includes 2,300+ companies in more than 170 countries and territories Company Memberships: 1,995 Individual Memberships: 245 Total IAM Members: 2,249

3 U.S. ECONOMY More Reasons for Optimism, than Reasons to Worry! Notion of a Double Dip is Dead or Fading Away Manufacturing Rebounding Spurring Recovery of Freight On the Front-End of an Expansion Cycle How Long Will it Last? Improvements in U.S. and Foreign (Brazilian) Stock Markets Absence of any Sharp Fall in European Stocks

4 U.S. Economy cont d U.S. Economy Growth of 2.4% for 2012 ~ National Association of Business Economies 2012 Forecast for Growth in U.S. Domestic Product (2-2.5% over 2011) ~ National Truck Equipment Association U.S. Domestic Freight Shipments Hit a Seven-Year High in December North American Free Trade (NAFTA) Up 27% from 2009 Up 40.3% over Recession Levels of Surface Trade Canada/Mexico up 14.3% ~ Bureau of Transportation Statics

5 If You Still Need Reasons to Worry! Renewed European Debt Woes Portugal and Spain Possible Weakness in the U.S. Economy Warmer weather may have pulled forward some shopping and construction activity segueing data Higher Gasoline Prices a bite out of consumers pocketbooks Slower Corporate Earnings Growth and Profit Margins down from near record levels Sharp Fall in European Stocks will there be?

6 Global Trade - in a State of Flux Growth in Trade ($ Value) will Slow 4.7% in 2012 versus a 6.6% Expansion in 2011 Trade (volume) to Slacken to 5.2% in 2012 after expanding 6.4% in 2011 ~The World Bank

7 U.S. Imports: Up 10% Year-Over-Year Retailers stocking up; and driven by robust automotive and strengthening housing industries ~National Retail Federation

8 U.S. Exports: 2011 Started with a Bang 6% Increase to Record Volumes Fizzled out in 4 th Quarter 2012 Projections Lowered from 4.3% to 3.5% ~National Association of Business Economics

9 Why Focus on the World?

10 Why Focus on World Economies and Trade? Trade is to International Moving as Home Sales are to Domestic Moving

11 Where are the Markets? After Canada and Mexico: European Union is the biggest U.S. Export (and Moving) Market Everything is tied together by Exchange Rates (Value of the U.S. dollar) and the rate of Economic Growth in overseas markets

12 CHINA IS A KEY PLAYER, but: CHINA Now the World s 2 nd Largest Economy (behind the U.S.) Slowest Trade Growth in Two Years - $3.6 Trillion China s Trade Surplus Sank to a 3-year Low Growth in Middle Class = Higher Wages

13 THE JOBS ARE MOVING Global Out-Sourcing Trends Beginning to Shift Near-Sourcing Countries like Mexico/Canada In-Sourcing Jobs Returning to the U.S. 37,000 Manufacturing Jobs Created in March ~ US Department of Labor

14 GLOBAL HOT SPOTS FOR MOVES For Decades was U.S. to Europe to U.S. Then the BRIC s: Brazil, Russia, India and China Emerging Markets are Next Emerging Markets will grow 5.6% in Far ahead of the 1.3% projected for the Advanced Economies. Africa is leading the way One-third of Continent considered Middle Class - Tripled since 1980 Recent Trade Agreements: Columbia, S. Korea & Panama

15 What Percent of U.S. Employees Relocate to Each Country? Japan 5% Singapore India 4% 4% Malaysia 3% Brazil 3% Belgium 3% Italy 2% Israel 2% U.K 24% U.K Germany China Australia France Switzerland Netherlands Japan Netherlands 5% India Singapore Switzerland 5% Germany 16% Malaysia Brazil Belgium France 6% Australia 6% China 12% Italy Israel

16 Where Will People be Moving to and from? TOP TEN Most popular relocation destinations: 1.United States 2.United Kingdom 3.Singapore 4.China 5.Switzerland 6. India 7. Germany 8. Hong Kong 9. Japan 10. Canada Source: 2010 UniGroup Worldwide UTS Migration Study

17 What Will People be Moving? Probably Smaller Shipments! Relocation trends showing shorter time periods for International assignments and shorter term projects Younger employees willing to take on overseas postings, particularly in emerging markets Many companies combining overseas job with charitable projects IBM 1200 employees 100 projects -23 countries FedEX Global Leadership Corp. works with Peace Corp.

18 In What Will They be Living? With trends for postings to be shorter and more assignments to Emerging Markets we will see: Long Term or extended stay hotels or temporary housing Serviced / (semi or fully) furnished apartments Rotation in and out of corporate housing Packaged Home Furnishings Smaller quarters and shipments of personal things Creating need for long-term storage?

19 U.S. Government (DOD) Moves Shifting Too! Withdrawals from Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan Drawdown of Troops Levels out Europe Increased presence in Pacific Rim, Korea, Guam & Australia Overall Reductions in ALL Military Services Reduce Forces by 123,900 Goal: Down to 2.15 Million by Oct Numerous Separations and Retirements

20 Other U.S. Government IMPACTS on International Moving MOU FMCSA and Federal Maritime Commission Increased Focus on International Rogue Movers FMC I-27 Investigation Barrel Trade Enhanced Licensing and Bonding Highway Bill Initiative Bonding for Forwarders and Brokers raised from $10,000 to $100,000 Federal, State & Local (Regulatory) Agencies looking for ways to generate revenue

21 Government IMPACTS - Cont d Screening vs. Scanning Advance Manifests Filings/Reviews Personal Identity Information (PII) Data-mining and sharing of INFO Movers getting blame! C&BP Intensive Customs Exams IAM Survey and advocacy

22 Other Things to Watch in 2012 Spiking Oil Prices Inland and Ocean Bunker Renegotiation of ILA Port Labor Contracts Potential Work-Actions or Strikes Push traffic from East to West Coast Agent / Driver - Shortages in Capacity Expanded use of containerization

23 IAM Annual Meeting 2012 IAM 50 th Anniversary Annual Meeting October 10-13, 2012 Gaylord National Hotel and Convention Center National Harbor, Maryland Washington, DC

24 THANK YOU!

25 CMSA International Panel Terry Head (Panel Moderator) President International Association of Movers (IAM) Tony Waugh Director, U.S. Partner Relations AGS Worldwide Movers Sherry Williams Executive Director Pan- American International Movers Association (PAIMA) Edward Wong President Royal Hawaiian Movers, Inc.