Mapping Africa s allure. Goolam Ballim* May

Transcription

1 Mapping Africa s allure Goolam Ballim* May Goolam.Ballim@standardbank.co.za

2 1 Page Political

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4 3 Economic growth has been widespread, and inclusive Growth rate, average, % More countries are growing at a faster clip Political % Less than 1 to to to to to s 199s 2s Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF), Standard Bank Research Sources: Standard Bank Research; IMF, African Development Bank (AfDB)

5 4 Political Africa s post-recession recovery This time around, Africa s recovery has not lagged the rest of the world Advanced average Sources: Standard Bank Research; Bloomberg, IMF

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7 6 Improved macroeconomic management has supported growth Inflation structurally lower Maturity in current account balance 198s 2s 198s 2s Political More than 2% 1% to 2% Less than 1% Insufficient data More than 1% deficit 5% to 1% deficit % to 5% deficit Surplus Insufficient data Sources: IMF, Standard Bank Research; Sources: IMF, Standard Bank Research;

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9 8 Expanded political freedom has deepened participation in economic growth Expanding political freedom Number of electoral democracies Political Partly Free, 15 (32%) Free, 4 (9%) 198 Not Free, 27 (59%) Free, 1 (21%) 28 Not Free, 15 (31%) 1 5 Partly Free, 23 (48%) Sources: Freedom House, Standard Bank Research Sources: Freedom House, Standard Bank Research;

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11 Africans have become more wealthy GDP per capita (PPP) growth, 2-21 (%) Africa s population is growing, and urbanising 2 Total population (') 8 Political Less than 1 % Economically active population Dependent population Total fertility rate*(rhs) to 2 2 to 5 5 to 8 8 to 1 1+ Sources: IMF, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Standard Bank Research India Africa China Europe Latin Rural Urban America Sources: United Nations (UN), Standard Bank Research; North America

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13 China US France Italy Germany Spain India Neth. UK Japan Korea Brazil Belgium SA Turkey Canada UAE Nigeria Portugal Taiwan 12 Emerging markets, led by BRICs, growing in stature Breakdown of Africa s new post-21 trade Africa s top 2 trade partnerships 4 3% 16 USD bn Political 3 25% Russia Brazil India 2% 1 8 China % 4 Other 2 Nigeria South Africa 1% Developed DevelopingIntra-Africa BRIC Non-BRIC or Africa Growth rate (RHS) Change (LHS) Sources: IMF, International Trade Centre (ITC),World Trade Organisation (WTO), Standard Bank Research Sources: IMF, ITC, WTO, Standard Bank Research

14 13 BRIC s have been important players in more inclusive world Africa s exports Africa s imports 6 USD bn 4 USD bn Political US Japan EU-27 Brazil US Japan EU-27 Brazil Russia India China Africa Russia India China Africa Sources: IMF, ITC, WTO, Standard Bank Research Sources: IMF, ITC, WTO, Standard Bank Research

15 France US China UK Italy South Africa Netherlands Switzerland Brazil India Germany Japan Norway Russia Malaysia Saudi Arabia Portugal UAE Spain Denmark Canada Korea Sweden Thailand 14 Traditional partners clearly still matter, new partners prospects are alluring Traditional partners dominant in investment... But BRICs will accelerate commercial ties 6 FDI stock, USD bn 6 USD bn Political Trade FDI China Brazil India Russia Sources: UNCTAD, ITC Standard Bank Research Sources: ITC, Standard Bank Research

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17 16 Africa s resources potential Commodities in Africa as a % of world total Growth of proved oil reserves, 1989 to 29 Political % 15% 1% 5% 116% 6 % % Europe & Eurasia, S. & Cent. America Africa, Africa N. America, 73.3 Europe & Eurasia Asia Pacific Middle East Proved oil reserves at end 29, bn barrels North America Asia Pacific, 42.2 Middle East, E Sources: United States Geological Survey (USGS), Credit Suisse, Standard Bank Research; S. & Cent. America, Sources: British Petroleum (BP), Standard Bank Research

18 17 Agriculture poised for growth World share of unexploited cropland Countries with the largest potentially available cropland Political 2% % of world total Latin America, 31% Others, 8% 16% 12% 8% Sub- Saharan Africa, 61% 4% % Sources: Harmonised Soil Database, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Standard Bank Research Sources: Harmonised Soil Database, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Standard Bank Research

19 18 Regional integration will propel deeper economic growth Africa s regional groupings Intra-African trade has accelerated Algeria 1 USD bn Political US$16.3 bn Egypt US$218.5 bn Nigeria US$216.8 bn All other intra-african trade South Africa's trade with Africa WAMZ (West African Monetary Zone) Angola US$85.3 bn WAEMU (West African Economic & Monetary Union) ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) CEMAC (Central African Economic & Monetary Community) SACU (Southern African Customs Union) RSA US$357.3 bn EAC (East African Community) SADC (Southern African Development Community) COMESA (Common Market for Eastern & Southern Africa) Sources: IMF, Standard Bank Research Sources: ITC, UN COMTRADE, Standard Bank Research

20 19 Political Africa and the world Africa s economic resurgence is robust, underpinned by sound structural fundamentals. While challenges clearly persist, Africa is more stable than ever before. Africa s population is growing, and becoming more affluent, creating widespread opportunities. Commercial linkages with the emerging world are accelerating, fundamentally reversing Africa s marginalised position in world trade. Increasingly, Africa s abundant agricultural potential will provide fresh impetus for investment. Meanwhile, the continent s resources potential remains surprisingly dormant. Gaining access to is emerging as a vital tool in negotiating the world s new reality.

21 2 Goolam Ballim* Chief Economist Contact:

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