Labor Market Integration: as a response to goods market failure to adjust
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1 Labor Market Integration: as a response to goods market failure to adjust LINK CONFERENCE 2005: DISCUSSING THE WORLD FOR THE FUTURE CLEMENTE RUIZ DURAN MEXICO, MAY 2005 North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
2 Index Basic model of adjustment Labor Market basic features Expected trade effects on integration Labor market specialization: the role of integration The role of integration on productivity Labor market scenarios
3 Traditional model of adjustment Adjustment in the traditional model gives as result unemployment Some modern models have introduced the concept of waiting to work (Akerlof, Rose and Yellen 2003) For developing countries theory has introduced the concept of segmented labor markets, bringing in the informal labor sector But up to date, all models assume closed labor markets, little research has been developed regarding open labor markets, where labor mobility has an impact on the performance of home and host economy, through migration.
4 World Economic Outlook 2004 introduced the question: how will demographics affect the global economy? Africa Middle East and Central Asia Latin America Emerging Asia United States Emerging Europe Europe Other advanced economies Japan -0.79
5 United Kingdom United States France Germany Korea Italy Japan Spain Inmigration (percent of end of period total population) Migration Migration Necessary for constant Labor Force to Total Population Ratio in 2050 All Advanced
6 NAFTA: expected results of trade integration North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
7 GDP North America: expected outputs INV Employment X North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
8 Changes in investment position of NAFTA countries in the region was positive ( millions of dollars) Canada USA Mexico Year 2003 Canada - 102,255 n.as. USA 192,409-61,526 Mexico n.d. 6,680 - Year 1994 Canada - 41,219 n.a. USA 74,221-16,968 Mexico n.d. 2,069 - Change in investment position Canada - 61,036 n.d. USA 118,188-44,558 Mexico n.d. 4,611 - Source: BEA web page September 2004
9 NAFTA trade had the expected exports behaviour but not in the imports side Intraregional Exports Share of Total Exports Intraregional Imports Share of total Imports Net integration effect A B C= A - B Source: Own estimates based on WTO web database September 2004
10 North America: Employment Gap ,000,000 6,000,000 Mexico 5,000,000 Surplus Labor 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000 Canada USA Shortage of Labor -2,000,000 North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
11 MEXICO: employment creation vs. Migration flows Migration Payed Employment , , , ,000 1,100,000 North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
12 Migration as adjusment to productive desequilibrium Year Total Migration to USA (millioins of persons) Mexican Migration (millions) Canadian Migration (millions) North American Migrants to USA (millions) % of total migration US population growth (millions) Migration as % of US population growth (%) Per od 1989 a Source: Own estimates based on US. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Inmigration Statistics "2003 Yearbook of Inmigration Statistics. Septermber 2004" Table 2. Inmigration by region and selected country of last residence fiscal years ; and US Census Bureau "Statistical Abstract of the United States 2003" Table 2. Population 1960 to 2002, P gina 8.
13 SUSTITUIBILITY OR COMPLEMENTARITY Natural resources, construction, and maintenance Service occupations Production, transportation, and material moving occupations Construction and extraction occupations Sales and office occupations Management occupations Professional and related occupations Management, business, and financial operations occupations US BORN OCCUPATIONS 000
14 MIGRATION FLOWS EFFECTS ON PRODUCTION Ω HOME ECONOMY Ω HOST ECONOMY Preliminary estimates show that 8% of US GDP comes from Mexican Migrants and that migration reduces in 27% the Mexican GDP
15 Second Stage Adjustment Labor Market Trends North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
16 North America will become more labor intensive Labor intensive activities Manufacturing relocation will keep design activities. Life Cycle enlargement will require more health activities Continuous Education will be the new rule for old and new generations
17 Millions of jobs Relocation of manufacturing outside the region is pushing down employment in the sector, transferring it to the service sector Mexico Estados Unidos Canadá Manufacturing employment decreased from 25 millions in 1988 to 21 million workers in
18 Life cycle changes will create new employment niches Childhood Adulthood Old Age Old Age New professions and new employment niches will emerge as life expectancy increases: health and education will the more demanded
19 Impact of Labor Market Integration in Productivity North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
20 North America Productivity Evolution 1994 to 2000 CANADA US MEXICO CANADA US MEXICO TOTAL Goods Producing Sectors Agriculture, forestry, and fishing Mining Electric, gas, and sanitary services Construction Manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods Service Producing Sectors Trade n.d n.d. Wholesale trade n.d n.d. Retail trade Transportation,communications, and Finance and insurance n.d n.d Real estate n.d n.d Professional services, scientific and technical; business assistance and Educational services Health and social services Information, culture and recreation Hotels and other lodging places Other Services Government
21 Labor Market Scenarios North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
22 Scenario 2003 to 2012 Estimates shows that population in the region will increase by 38 million between 2003 and 2012, if participation rates remains as today, labor force will increase by 18 millions, that will mean an average of 1.97 million a year.. Labor force scenario 2003 to 2012 Canada Mexico USA North America Growth ,207, ,718, ,342, ,267, ,818, ,975, ,508, ,302, Labor Force ,522,249 41,072, ,429, ,023, ,861, ,530, ,367, ,759,
23 North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
24 North America: INTEGRACION Labor DEL MERCADO MarketLABORAL Integration EN AMERICA DEL NORTE
25 An agenda for discussion If you US and Canada requires to increase to grow at their potenital rate, they will require to mantain open migration policies, and get a new migrant agreement with what we can call NAFTA II. US and Canada requires to recognize the positive benefits of migration and academics in the region should work on precise estimates of what are the effects of migration. Mexico should recognize that migration is a loss of human capital and of potentiial growth, so investment requires to be increased to take advantage of the growth of labor force.
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background The Economy Saskatoon s booming economy will bring significant changes to the city. As a hub for natural resource and agricultural industries Saskatoon houses the head offices of major corporations