European Vacancy Monitor

Transcription

1 ISSN: European Vacancy Monitor Issue No. 9 / May 2013 The European Vacancy Monitor is published quarterly by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion of the European Commission. This is a publication within the Europe 2020 flagship initiative An Agenda for New Skills and Jobs feeding into the European Skills Panorama. It will be further refined taking into account stakeholders feedback. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication. Comments on the content are gratefully received and should be sent to: HIGHLIGHTS DEVELOPMENT OF VACANCIES: Job vacancies declined overall, confirming continuing weak demand for labour Total job vacancies in the third quarter of 2012 amounted to approximately 1.7 million (16 countries), representing a decrease of around -4 per cent on the same quarter in The decrease was -4 per cent in both private and public sector vacancies. Nevertheless there was variation between countries with one third showing increases over the period, though mostly small scale. The PES job vacancy inflow declined by around 10 per cent in the 17 countries covered over the period, with just four Member States (and Norway) registering increases. Demand for temporary agency workers weakened in the five countries covered by the Randstad data, falling by around 9 per cent in the last quarter of Read more on page 3 Job hirings were most numerous in the low to mediumskilled occupations such as shop salespersons, domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers, and waiters and bartenders, with these three alone accounting for almost one in every three of all hirings in the Top 25 occupations. In the PES, those occupations with the highest inflows of vacancies required medium skills (equally distributed between manual and non-manual). Read more on page 9 EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS: By educational level hirings increased for those with post-secondary and tertiary education. Although this is in line with the increased hirings of professionals, other literature indicates increasing employment of overqualified workers. Read more on page 17 DG EMPL C.3 European Commission B-1049 Bruxelles/Brussels empl-c3-unit@ec.europa.eu WHAT S INSIDE? INTRODUCTION 2 1. VACANCIES AND JOB PROSPECTS 3 2. OCCUPATIONS 9 3. EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS TOP OCCUPATIONS PER COUNTRY 18 ENDNOTES 26 ANNEXES 27 Further Information European Job Mobility Bulletin EU Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review Employment Package JOB PROSPECTS FOR THE UNEMPLOYED: Opportunities to get hired continued to decrease Short-term developments in hirings comparing the third quarters of 2011 and 2012 show a continued decline at -3 per cent. The unemployment rate continued to increase reaching 10.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 and this contributed to a higher unemployed-to-hirings ratio of 2.14 compared to 1.97 in the same quarter in 2011 and to 1.27 in Job prospects remained better with ratios at one or below in Austria and most of the Northern EU countries comprising Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden. Read more on page 7 OCCUPATIONAL DEMAND: Labour demand continued to decline overall but not for professionals and service and sales workers Only two of the nine main occupational groups showed increased hirings in the third quarter of 2012 compared to Professionals and service and sales workers increased by +2 per cent and +3 per cent respectively. For professionals this confirmed the medium-term trend of growth, demonstrating the consistent demand for these high-skilled workers. As in EVM8, both hirings and employment increased in certain high-skilled jobs related to administration, teaching, health care and engineering. TOP 10 growth in employment per country on page 18 TOP 5 growth PES inflow per country on page 25 TOP 5 in the EURES Job Mobility Portal on page 26 TOP 5 growth employment Administrative and specialised secretaries Administrative professionals Business services and administration managers Client information workers Protective services workers TOP 5 growth hirings Domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers Waiters and bartenders Manufacturing labourers Personal care workers in health services PES TOP 5 growth occupations (vacancy inflow)* Police inspectors and detectives Administrative associate professionals Customs, tax and related government associate professionals Personal care and related workers Stall and market salespersons *only 8 countries included Social Europe

2 INTRODUCTION As part of its Europe 2020 flagship initiative An Agenda for New Skills and Jobs, in 2010 the European Commission (EC) launched the Monitoring Labour Market Developments in Europe project. The objective of this project is to increase labour market transparency for all stakeholders who need information about recent developments on the demand side of the labour market, such as decision-makers in the fields of education and employment, public and private employment services including EURES advisers, education and training providers, career guidance services, and policy and labour market analysts. The European Vacancy Monitor is a component of the European Commission s endeavour to develop a labour market monitoring system focusing on changes in the demand for skills including contractual arrangements, sector demand, occupational demand, growing occupations, hard-to-fill vacancies (bottleneck occupations) and skills requirements. Monitoring the activities of different recruitment agencies is important because they are at the interface of labour demand and supply, matching vacancies with suitable jobseekers in particular segments of the labour market. Results of the analysis are disseminated on a quarterly basis. Other initiatives within this project include a second quarterly bulletin, the European Job Mobility Bulletin, and a biennial report, the European Vacancy and Recruitment Report (EVRR). 1 Together with other relevant studies, labour market data and analyses, these form part of the European Commission s Skills Panorama launched in December THE EUROPEAN VACANCY MONITOR (EVM) The key sources of information for the EVM include European and national sources: - the Labour Force Survey (data of recent job hirings for 27 countries) including a breakdown by sector, occupation, educational level and educational fields, as well as the relationship of unemployment to job hirings (a measurement of the tightness of the labour market), the Job Vacancy Statistics (vacancy data for 21 countries) including by sector, PES data for job vacancy inflow and registered unemployed (18 countries), - data from a Temporary Work Agency (TWA) (5 countries) and Eurociett, the European Confederation of Private Employment Agencies. - EVM provides regular updates on developments in the following aspects of labour demand: Numbers of job vacancies and of job hirings (quarterly) Inflow of newly registered vacancies with PES, also by occupational group (quarterly) Recruitment demand in TWAs (quarterly) Relationship between recruitment demand and supply (quarterly) Occupational demand (quarterly) Educational level (quarterly) Educational field (annually) Job vacancies by economic sector (annually) Hard-to-fill ( bottleneck ) vacancies (annually) THE EUROPEAN JOB MOBILITY BULLETIN (EJMB) The main sources of data analysis for the European Job Mobility Bulletin are Job vacancies uploaded by the PES to the European Job Mobility portal (EURES portal), The EURES database including a breakdown by sectors, occupations and skills. The EURES database is currently being revised to increase the coverage of posts. For this reason, the ninth and following issues of the EJMB are limited to the EURES portal, until the completion of the revision of the EURES database which is expected December THE EUROPEAN VACANCY AND RECRUITMENT REPORT (EVRR) The biennial report is based upon the data analysis for the European Vacancy Monitor and further national labour market information and studies. In addition to the topics presented in the European Vacancy Monitor, the report focuses on the identification of top-growth occupations with most recent recruits and of top bottleneck occupations in Europe for which employers experience difficulties in filling their vacancies. It also provides an analysis of the development of market shares of recruitment agencies, in particular of PES and of TWAs. In this issue, the charts have been slightly revised in two aspects: For a number of charts the presentation has been further refined. An increasing number of PES have switched from ISCO- 88 classification of occupations to the newer ISCO-08 classification a year or longer ago. For this reason two versions of the PES chart on growth by occupation have been developed, to increase the coverage of countries on PES data. Corresponding to feedback from readers the EVM now focuses on vacancy development while data for hirings (LFS) will be further analysed in the European Vacancy and Recruitment Report In order to better present outcomes of demand for occupations and to better represent smaller countries, from now on the top rankings per country focus on employment growth by occupation. The analysis of the demand for occupations is based on the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO- 08 for job hirings and a mix of ISCO-88 and ISCO-08 for PES data). To allow for international comparisons where necessary, some PES data on occupations have been harmonised with ISCO. The analysis of demand by educational level and field is based on the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED). 2

3 Part 1 VACANCIES AND JOB PROSPECTS 1.1 TRENDS IN VACANCIES Job vacancies stabilised at lower level for both public and private sectors The index of job vacancies was hovering between 70 and 80 (base 100 at the start of 2008) for the past seven quarters and showed little sign of picking up in the third quarter of These overall figures are dominated by private sector job vacancies which account for around four out of every five recorded in the EU16 covered (Chart 1). In the third quarter of 2012 there was a convergence of the indices for private sector and public sector job vacancies following a period with a wide divergence from around the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of During this period private sector vacancies declined sharply in relation to the 2008 level and picked up from the third quarter of 2009 while public sector vacancies showed a slower but longer-lasting decline. However, the more recent figures showed that in the case of the private sector, the continuing poor economic conditions in most Member States contributed to low levels of recruitment overall, though some sectors have baulked the trend (for example health and social care which, while predominantly public sector has a growing private sector in many countries). In contrast, the slight improvement in the index for public sector job vacancies suggests that the effects of austerity measures on job losses lessened, or there was an increased replacement demand (due to retirements and other attrition see Chart 6 for a discussion of this). Job vacancies (Eurostat Job Vacancy Statistics) Job vacancies refer to vacant paid posts (i.e. for employees), exclusive of internal vacancies (see Annex A3 for a full definition). Their number is measured by taking stock of the open vacancies at a certain moment of time. Chart 1 shows the changes over the period from the first quarter of 2008 (the base year) to the latest quarter (in this case the third quarter of 2012) in index form. Following some grounds for optimism in EVM8 that job vacancies had started to pick up, the latest quarter s figures showed a small fall in the index and so repeated the pattern for the last six quarters (Chart 1). The overall fall in the index (of -4.3 in the third quarter of 2012) compares with a positive movement of 1.6 in the previous quarter of the same year. In addition, the separate figures for the private and public sectors showed similar sized movements in their indices. This downturn in vacancy activity is consistent with the continuing weak economic conditions in the EU. For example, in the third quarter of 2012 real GDP in the EU27 grew by just 0.1 of a percentage point on the previous quarter, but on the previous year it was down by -0.4 of a percentage point 1. Other indicators available for the EU27 showed mixed developments that tended to confirm an uncertain economic scenario. Chart 1: Development of job vacancies (total, private, and public sector) Index, 2008Q1-2012Q3, 2008Q1= Total job vacancies Private sector job vacancies Public sector job vacancies 40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Source: Eurostat, Job Vacancy Statistics - own calculations (16 countries): Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal (Portugal exclusive public administration), Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Sweden, the United Kingdom. A job vacancy is defined as a paid post that is newly created, unoccupied, or about to become vacant. Here, the public sector is defined as the total of four NACE sectors: 1. public administration, 2. education, 3. human health and 4. arts and other services. Due to data limitations, the private sector is defined as the rest of the economy exclusive agriculture. Agriculture is not in the total either. Number of job vacancies in 2012Q3 (EU16, in thousands): total: 1,660; in private sector: 1,316; in public sector:

4 -92% -83% -73% -71% -59% -55% -52% -46% -44% -36% -29% -23% -21% -14% -2% 3% 15% The change in the index of job vacancies in the public sector seemed to be in line with expectations, given that austerity measures in most Member States affected job prospects as a result of cuts in public expenditure. Here the -4.4 year-onyear fall in the index for job vacancies is more consistent with these expectations than the previous quarter s 7.5 per cent increase, though looking back over the period since the start of 2009, the index has tended to fluctuate somewhat. However, confirming the downward trend, taken over a longer period (between the third quarters of 2009 and 2012) there was an overall fall of around -4.7 per cent in employment in the sector of public administration and defence in the EU27. Job vacancies declined in most countries Comparing the third quarters of 2012 and 2011, the stock of job vacancies increased in seven countries (Austria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Portugal and the United Kingdom) out of the 21 where information was available (Chart 2). In most cases the percentage increases were small and even in the three countries with the biggest short-term increases (Lithuania, Latvia and the Czech Republic), they still represented only one half or even less of their 2008 values for the third quarter. Furthermore, these increases follow changeable patterns in the stock of job vacancies in previous quarters for these countries (see EVM8) and so are not necessarily indicative of an established pattern. This is confirmed by the medium term developments (comparing the second quarter of 2012 with the same quarter in 2008) which show this volatility, except for Austria where the short and medium term figures were close to each other. Of these seven countries, the Austrian labour market seems to be affected least by the crisis, and managed to maintain a low level of unemployment over the period (4.5 per cent in September 2012) and with little change in youth unemployment (at 9.0 per cent in September 2012). For those countries showing falls in the number of job vacancies, the majority (nine out of 14) had decreases of less than -10 per cent but five countries had falls above this -10 per cent threshold (namely Cyprus, Greece, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Spain), and of these, Cyprus and Greece had significantly high falls of 56 and 65 per cent respectively. These two countries have been severely affected by the crisis, a factor also reflected in their medium term trends in the number of job vacancies. In fact, the latest change figures comparing the third quarters of 2012 and 2011 show some small improvement, though this cannot be taken as an indication of any sustained improvement in labour market conditions. Unemployment rates were high in both countries, with 26 per cent in Greece (September 2012) and 13 per cent in Cyprus and even higher levels of youth unemployment (58 per cent in Greece and 27 per cent in Cyprus). Comparing the short-term changes in the stock of job vacancies, it is possible to group the 21 countries according to how they fared comparing the third quarters of 2012 and 2011 and this is presented below: Growth (> +5 %) The Czech Republic, Latvia and Lithuania Relatively stable Austria, Estonia, Hungary, Luxembourg, ( -5 % and < +5 %) Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and the United Kingdom Decline ( -5 %) Bulgaria, Cyprus*, Finland, Germany, Greece*, the Netherlands*, Norway, Slovenia*, Spain* and Sweden Note: in the countries marked with * the decrease was over 10%. The above groupings contain some noteworthy entries. For example, in the group of countries with declining job Country Vacancies 2012Q3 Lithuania 14,400 Latvia 3,300 Czech Republic 41,300 United Kingdom 496,000 Austria** 73,100 Luxembourg 2,700 Portugal* 12,500 Romania 26,200 Estonia 7,500 Hungary** 26,400 EU16 1,660,000 Slovakia 13,400 Sweden 54,500 Germany 856,300 Bulgaria 14,500 Finland** 36,700 Norway** 60,700 Slovenia 6,200 Netherlands 104,700 Spain** 92,100 Cyprus 1,200 Greece*** 5,300 Chart 2: Development of job vacancies Percentages, 2012Q3 compared to 2011Q3 and to 2008Q3, absolute numbers of 2012Q3-100% -90% -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2011Q3-2012Q3 2008Q3-2012Q3 % change Source: Eurostat, Job Vacancy Statistics - own calculations (21 countries). Countries included in the EU16 total: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Sweden, Slovakia, the United Kingdom. A job vacancy is defined as a paid post that is newly created, unoccupied, or about to become vacant. * For Portugal public administration is excluded due to missing 2011Q3 data. ** Changes for Austria, Finland, Hungary, Norway and Spain are only shown for 2011Q3-2012Q3, due to missing values for 2008Q3. The EU16 total for 2011Q3-2012Q3 does not include these four EU-countries and Norway. *** For Greece the method of weighting sectors was adjusted which resulted in a more stable time series but also in higher values for 2011Q3 Number of job vacancies (EU16, in thousands): in 2008Q3: 2,144; in 2011Q3: 1,735; in 2012Q3: 1,660. 4

5 vacancies in the short-term were Germany, Norway and Sweden, countries where their labour markets up to then have been least affected by the crisis, suggesting a halt to hitherto favourable developments over the medium-term, as is confirmed by available data for Germany and Sweden. In the group of countries with relatively stable vacancy developments, all had significant negative growth in the stock of job vacancies in the medium-term, with the sole exception of Luxembourg with just a -2 per cent fall between the third quarters of 2008 and This suggests a temporarily stable labour market situation at lower vacancy levels. The three countries with growth of greater than 5 per cent in the stock of vacancies (the Czech Republic, Latvia and Lithuania) shared some common characteristics in terms of those sectors driving this growth between the third quarters of 2012 and In all three cases job vacancy growth was spread across manufacturing, construction and services, and with public and private sector vacancies contributing to the increases. However, in Lithuania the business services sectors grew particularly well, though construction was also a strong performer. In Latvia, service sector growth was more pronounced, with manufacturing and construction creating fewer new vacancies. Weakening or unstable labour demand reflected in PES vacancy inflow in many countries Excluding the UK the PES inflow declined by 10 per cent in the remaining EU16 (Chart 3). The UK figures have been excluded as they alone accounted for almost 49 per cent of the total inflow in the third quarter of Therefore, in considering the overall EU developments the UK figures have been excluded. Following on from this the PES inflow declined by 10 per cent in the remaining EU16. However, just three countries besides the UK (Denmark, Latvia and Lithuania) still showed an increased inflow of PES job vacancies between the third quarters of 2011 and Otherwise the trend has been relatively stable in six countries and declining in the other eight countries. According to the year-on-year PES inflow changes, the countries can be grouped as follows: Growth (> + 5 %) Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania Relatively stable Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, Norway, ( -5 % and < +5 %) Portugal, and Romania Decline (< -5 %) Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden Spain experienced a particularly large fall of -45 per cent, further reducing the overall number of vacancies notified to PES to just under 70,000 in the third quarter of 2012, a small number in relation to the size of the country. A similar situation prevailed in Cyprus where a much smaller fall of -16 per cent in the inflow of PES vacancies was accompanied by a relatively small overall number of vacancies in the third quarter of As such the PES inflow figures broadly confirm the development of the more encompassing JVS job vacancies (Chart 2) and in both series two countries, Latvia and Lithuania (here the United Kingdom also appears positive in both charts but is excluded because of the inflated PES figures on the inflow of vacancies) stand out as the only two countries with positive changes in both indicators. Furthermore, these are two of only three Member States which showed significant positive economic growth over the period. For example, in Latvia in the third quarter of 2012 GDP grew by 5.2 per cent on the previous year, while in Lithuania the increase was 3.4 per cent. This compares with negative growth in the EU27 of -0.4 of one percentage point and with only Estonia coming close to the other Baltic countries with an increase in GDP of 3.7 per cent. In the case of Denmark, the other significant contributor to the small overall growth in PES job vacancies inflow, improvements in the economy are less explanatory of the improvement with zero growth in GDP between the third quarters of 2012 and Country PES inflow 2012Q3 Lithuania 58,541 United Kingdom 1,365,859 Latvia 9,644 Denmark 32,030 Norway 15,822 Bulgaria 33,495 Austria 107,598 Romania 113,860 Estonia 13,274 Portugal 25,873 Sweden 133,767 Finland 98,957 Slovenia 46,823 EU16 1,548,141 Belgium 172,003 Germany 520,265 Cyprus 3,215 Hungary 109,344 Spain 69,939 Chart 3: Development in PES vacancy inflow Percentages, 2012Q3 compared to 2011Q3, numbers of 2012Q3-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% % change Source: PES - own calculations (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Spain, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, Slovenia and the United Kingdom. Since the PES inflow in the United Kingdom was almost as high as in the other 16 EU countries combined, UK was left out of the total figure. PES inflow refers to new job vacancies which have been registered in a certain quarter. PES inflow (EU16 excl. Norway and the United Kingdom, in thousands): in 2011Q3: 1,730; in 2012Q3: 1,548. 5

6 The better performance of the labour markets in two Baltic States can be attributed to a number of factors and one of the most significant is the mobility of the population. During the crisis these countries saw increased economic migration to other Member States in search of work and this is likely to have restricted the availability of labour when their economies started to pick up (according to the GDP figures). Recruiting employers in such a situation will tend to use all means to secure their labour needs and this includes using the PES, hence the increased inflow of vacancies in Latvia and Lithuania, and Estonia in the previous quarter (see EVM8). Weakening demand for temporary agency workers continues According to the Randstad figures, the downturn in the demand for temporary agency workers that started in the third quarter of 2012 continued in the final quarter of the year. Furthermore, demand in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom registered small declines following a period of less volatility than in the other countries shown (France, Germany and Spain - Chart 4). These trends reflected the continuing low levels of economic activity in these Member States that is also evident in the job vacancy data already discussed. As discussed in EVM8, while the Randstad data are relatively up-to-date, they only cover a small part of the total temporary work agency market which, in Europe alone, is estimated to account for around 1.6 per cent of the volume of total employment. As such, reference to the wider CIETT annual economic reports 3 is useful to gain a wider perspective. Here the recently published report for 2012 shows that the temporary agency sector in Europe 4 began to decline in the first quarter of 2012 following a short period of recovery that began in This is confirmed by the Eurociett figures on the number of hours worked 5 by agency workers in Europe (tracked since 2008 and referred to in the CIETT report). These show that demand for temporary agency work fell from the beginning of 2008 to the second quarter of 2010, followed by a brief recovery that lasted until the first quarter of 2012, after which decline set in once again, though not as marked as in As an indicator of labour market fortunes, the number of hours worked by agency workers is considered to some extent to reflect the prevailing economic conditions, since it responds more quickly to changes in labour demand. As such, comparing September 2012 to the same month in the previous year, shows that in the EU27 the number of hours worked by agency workers fell by -9.2 per cent while the increase in unemployment was of a similar (though opposite) magnitude (+8.9 per cent). Furthermore, the decline in GDP for the EU27 over the same period was -0.4 per cent. Of course these are figures for the EU as a whole and different Member States will have different experiences, to some extent depending on their use of agency workers. This is evident in the five countries represented in Chart 4, for example, with three (France, Germany and Spain) with indices still above the base at the start of 2009, while the remaining two (the Netherlands and the United Kingdom) still well below. The CIETT report also provides a useful insight into the profile of the temporary agency workers. In Europe well over half (57 per cent) are aged under 30 and the fact that opportunities for agency work have declined is likely to have a detrimental effect on opportunities for young people to enter the labour market at a time of high youth unemployment. 300 Chart 4: Development of job vacancies in temporary work agencies (Randstad) Index, January December 2012, January 2009 = Germany 150 Spain 100 France United Kingdom 50 Netherlands 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Randstad (5 countries). The index is based on the number of open vacancies published by the subsidiaries of the Randstad Group on the internet. Randstad only publishes job vacancies that cannot be filled directly from the available pool of candidates. The figures are based on daily measurements of the number of open job vacancies. Number of Randstad vacancies December 2012: France: 6,667; Germany: 7,205; the Netherlands: 3,029; Spain: 904; the United Kingdom: 7,542. 6

7 1.2 JOB PROSPECTS Job hirings (based on Eurostat Labour Force Survey - LFS) For job hirings LFS data are used on employees in a reference week who had started working for an employer at the most three months earlier this excludes contract renewals. For a person who started multiple jobs within the same quarter, only the last hire is counted. Statistical offices often define such persons as job-finders according to different national definitions. Eurostat uses the neutral term time since job started. Job hirings reflect completed recruitment even if no formal vacancies had been posted. The ratio of unemployed to job hirings indicates the relative ease of hiring, or the relative competition for jobs among unemployed. An increase in the ratio can be due to increasing unemployment, decreasing job hirings or both. Differences in the ratio between countries may reflect not only differences in shortages or surpluses, but also differences in job search requirements (affecting the number of unemployed) and labour market flexibility (affecting the number of job hirings). Job prospects deteriorated overall due mainly to increased unemployment - though some countries fared better than others For the EU27 the ratio of unemployed to hirings increased in the third quarter of 2012 to 2.14, representing just over two unemployed persons for each person hired. This deteriorating ratio reflects the continuing lack of economic growth in the EU27 which has seen unemployment increase to 10.6 per cent at the end of the third quarter of 2012 compared to 7.1 per cent in This was an increase in the ratio of 1.91 in the same quarter of 2011 and considerably higher than in 2008 when it was 1.27 (Chart 5). The EU north-south divide observed in the figures in EVM8 remained intact, with Malta the only exception among the group of countries comprising those with the lowest ten ratios. The short-term increase in the ratio for the EU27 has been driven by adverse changes in both hirings and unemployment, though an increase in the numbers unemployed was the dominant factor. Between the third quarters of 2011 and 2012, the numbers unemployed increased by around 9.2 per cent whereas the number of hirings fell by -2.6 per cent, suggesting that there was a continuing shakeout of labour. This same trend is also confirmed by the medium-term figures which show that between the third quarters of 2008 and 2012, unemployment numbers increased by around 52.1 per cent while hirings fell by per cent. Grouping the countries according to the range of ratios for the third quarter of 2012 shows just five countries with ratios of 1.0 or under and the biggest group (comprising over half the Member States) was that with ratios of more than 2.0. Ratio of 1.0 or under: Ratio of over 1.0 and to 2.0: Ratio of more than 2 Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Malta and the United Kingdom Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and Spain The majority of Member States with the lowest ratios (i.e. under 1.0) were Nordic countries. The continuing increase in the numbers unemployed can be attributed to job losses in both the public and private sectors. However, the implementation of austerity measures in many Member States is particularly affecting the loss of public sector jobs. This is confirmed by figures in the latest EU Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Report (March Country Unemployed Hirings 2012Q3 2012Q3 (x1,000) (x 1,000) Austria Finland Sweden Denmark Netherlands Germany 2,281 2,158 Luxembourg Malta 12 8 Estonia France 2,779 1,870 United Kingdom 2,536 1,383 Belgium Slovenia Czech Republic EU27 24,616 11,476 Latvia Cyprus Hungary Poland 1, Bulgaria Lithuania Italy 2, Ireland Portugal Spain 5,771 1,233 Romania Slovakia Greece 1, Chart 5: Ratio of unemployed to hirings Ratios, 2012Q3, 2011Q3, 2008Q3, and absolute numbers of 2012Q Q3 2008Q3 2011Q3 Unemployed / job hirings Source: Eurostat, LFS - own calculations (27 countries). Unemployed: unadjusted, age Hirings: employees who were employed in a 'reference week' and had started working for their employer at most three 7

8 2013) which shows that between the third quarters of 2009 and 2012, employment in public administration and defence fell by -4.7 per cent in the EU27. However, the job losses were not evenly distributed with 17 of the 27 Member States experiencing falls (Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Romania, Finland and the United Kingdom) ranging from -1.0 per cent in Austria to per cent in Portugal. For the remaining nine Member States, employment in public administration and defence actually increased over the period, ranging from +0.4 per cent in Germany to per cent in Luxembourg. In some countries where there was growth in employment in the public sector, they were still represented in the list of Member States with comparatively high ratios of unemployed to hirings. These included Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia, all of which had ratios in excess of 2.0 in the third quarter of This suggests that their ratios have been affected more by falls in private sector jobs and so increasing unemployment. 8

9 Part 2 OCCUPATIONS 2.1 RECRUITMENT DEMAND FOR OCCUPATIONS Despite overall decline, demand continues to grow for service and sales workers and professionals According to the number of hirings, the demand for labour in the EU27 continued its overall decline in the third quarter of 2012 with a fall of around -3 per cent compared to the same quarter in 2011, consolidating a fall of -10 per cent over the medium term (Chart 6). Across the nine main occupational groups only two, professionals and service and sales workers, increased, by +2 per cent and +3 per cent respectively. For the professionals occupational group, this confirmed the medium-term trend of growth, with an increase of +5 per cent between the third quarters of 2012 and 2008, demonstrating the consistent demand for these higher skilled workers. For service and sales workers, the positive short-term growth drew the medium-term trend into positive territory for the first time, registering just a one per cent increase, but nevertheless providing evidence of the durability of recruitment demand in this occupational group. However, this growth in sales workers in particular may seem at odds with the developments in consumer spending over both the short and medium-terms. According to one relatively consistent indicator of consumer activity 6, in the EU27 consumer spending actually fell in the third quarter of 2012 compared to the same quarter in 2011, and furthermore this was the second consecutive quarterly fall following a sustained period of growth over the past three years. In the EU27, comparing the third quarters in 2012 and 2011, household expenditure fell by -1.6 per cent and this followed a -2.4 per cent fall in the previous period (second quarters of 2012 and 2011), though the experience of different countries varied. Out of the EU27, 16 Member States recorded some positive growth and another 11 negative growth. Among the larger countries only Germany saw household expenditure increase (up by 0.8 per cent) and this is consistent with in an increase in service and sales occupations over the same period. Elsewhere, using this measure household expenditure declined in Spain by -5.3 per cent, Italy by 4.6 per cent, the United Kingdom by -3.3 per cent and in France by -0.6 per cent. In contrast, it was the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that continued to show the strongest rate of increase in household consumption. These apparently contradictory developments of falling household expenditure and increasing hirings in service and sales workers can to some extent be explained by the comparatively high level of labour turnover in this occupational group. With significant numbers of low skilled jobs, entry and exit is relatively easy and workers may move between employers in search of better terms and conditions. Similarly, these jobs are often used by young people as a transition from education to employment and so serve a very useful route for helping reduce youth unemployment and inactivity. Therefore, the buoyancy of job opportunities in service and sales workers may not be due to the creation of incremental jobs but to the normal churn in this occupational group. Main occupational group Hirings 2012Q3 Legislators, senior officials and managers 222,000 Chart 6: Development in hirings by main occupational group (ISCO) Percentages, 2012Q3 compared to 2011Q3 and to 2008Q3 Professionals 1,122,000 Technicians and associate professionals 1,240,000 Clerical support workers 1,300,000 Service and sales workers 2,773,000 Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers 164,000 Craft and related trades workers 1,306,000 Plant and machine operators and assemblers 898,000 Elementary occupations 2,301,000 EU27 11,379,000-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2011Q3-2012Q3 2008Q3-2012Q3 % change Source: LFS data by ISCO 1 digit level - own calculations (26 countries, 27 for total). Ireland is included in the total but not in the breakdown by main occupational group due to partial non-response on ISCO for 2011Q3. Total is inclusive Ireland, armed forced and non-response (together 150,000). From 2011, the ISCO-08 classification is used in the LFS, in 2008 the ISCO-88 classification was used. Job hirings: employees who were employed in a 'reference week' and had started working for their employer at most three months earlier. 9

10 For the remaining seven occupational groups, their short-term decline in hirings over the third quarters of 2012 and 2011 was consistent with the medium-term developments, with the exception of elementary occupations. In the third quarter of 2012 hirings in elementary occupations fell by -3 per cent against the medium-term trend (still just positive at +1 per cent). Here the changes in hirings in elementary occupations can be explained to some extent by their mostly low-skilled nature. This permits relatively easy entry and exit to these jobs and so generates higher than average levels of labour turnover. Therefore, although not necessarily creating incremental jobs, it does provide a valuable route into the labour market for new entrants and re-entrants. The -15 per cent fall in hirings for legislators, senior officials and managers, is the largest of the seven declining occupations. This group comprises a high proportion employed in the public sector and so the fall is likely to reflect the effects of widespread cuts in public expenditure. However, in terms of overall volatility, skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers have shown most change over the short and mediumterms, though the number of hirings represents a very small proportion of the total (1.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2012). High-skilled occupations continue to dominate the Top25 for employee growth Top 25 occupational growth The top 25 occupations are determined by comparing numbers per ISCO category (at 3-digit level) of the third quarter of 2012 compared to the same quarter of Occupations are ranked by absolute growth rather than percentage change to avoid the numerically smallest occupations always ending on top, or using arbitrary minimum thresholds for selecting larger occupations. To provide a more comprehensive picture of the development of skills demand, this section provides following top 25 occupations: 1. growth in employment (where are increasing numbers of workers needed?) 2. growth in hirings (where are hirings increasing, including those to replace workers leaving employment?) 3. most recent hirings (where is recruitment demand high even if not increasing?) Similar to the situation reported in EVM8, the high-skilled occupations dominated the Top 25 in terms of increased employee numbers between the third quarters of 2012 and 2011 (Chart 7). Among the 13 listed (see below), a high proportion are principally employed in the service sectors such as health, teaching and the law, though other occupations such as software and applications developers and analyst, and finance professionals can be found across all sectors of industry. Other high-skilled occupations that grew over the reference period such as life science professionals and engineering professionals (excluding electro technology), are likely to be concentrated in more specialised sectors of industry. The Top 25 occupations by growth in employee numbers aggregated by skills level comprised 15 high-skilled, five skilled non-manual occupations, two skilled manual occupations and three elementary occupations. The occupation with the highest proportion of employees in the third quarter of 2012 was domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers, which fell into the elementary category, though other occupations accounting for large proportions of employees were to be found in all skills categories. By comparing this ranking in employee absolute growth with that in EVM8 some interesting changes can be highlighted. For high-skilled occupations there were 15 identified in EVM8 compared to 15 in the latest quarterly figures, though only Occupation Employees 2012Q3 Administrative and specialised secretaries HS 2,911,000 Administration professionals HS 2,237,000 Business services and administration managers HS 1,707,000 Client information workers NM 2,669,000 Protective services workers NM 3,106,000 Mining, manufacturing and construction supervisors HS 1,262,000 Other sales workers NM 976,000 Software and applications developers and analysts HS 1,819,000 Manufacturing labourers EL 1,674,000 Sales, marketing and public relations professionals HS 1,398,000 Material-recording and transport clerks NM 2,347,000 Nursing and midwifery professionals HS 1,901,000 Personal care workers in health services NM 4,466,000 Other teaching professionals HS 1,355,000 Legal professionals HS 726,000 Life science professionals HS 448,000 Other craft and related workers M 403,000 Domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers EL 6,262,000 Animal producers M 371,000 Engineering professionals (excl. electrotechnology) HS 226,000 Finance professionals HS 2,062,000 Medical and pharmaceutical technicians HS 1,419,000 University and higher education teachers HS 777,000 Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers EL 794,000 Telecommunications and broadcasting technicians HS 1,193,000 Chart 7: Top 25 growth occupations (ISCO-08) - employees Absolute growth, 2012Q3 compared to 2011Q3, numbers of 2012Q Change (x1,000) Source: Eurostat, LFS data by ISCO-08 3 digit level - own calculations (25 countries). Germany is excluded due to changes in the coding of occupations in 2012 and Ireland due to partial non-response on ISCO for 2011Q3. Occupations are indicated with broad skills levels: EL = Elementary (ISCO 9); M = Skilled manual (ISCO 6-8); NM = Skilled nonmanual (ISCO 4-5); HS = high-skilled (ISCO 1-3). 10

11 13 occupations are common to both. The two occupations falling from the list in the latest quarter were: secondary education teachers ; and other health professionals. The two that replaced them in the latest quarter were: life science professionals (e.g. biologists, pathologists) and telecommunications and broadcasting technicians. However, the main differences are to be found further down the skills hierarchy. For example, there are fewer skilled non-manual occupations in the latest quarter (five compared to nine), more skilled manual (two compared to none) and more elementary (three compared to one). This would suggest that labour demand for skilled non-manual occupations fell in the latest quarter and increased for skilled manual and lower-skilled elementary workers, though some of this change may be caused by seasonal changes in demand. Top 25 growing occupations comprised ten high-skilled jobs The top 25 occupations for hirings provide more detail about where the principal occupational changes in demand occurred. Only two main occupational groups recorded growth in the number of hirings over the period between the third quarters of 2012 and 2011, professionals and service and sales workers (up by 2 per cent and 3 per cent respectively). Looking in more detail at the sorts of occupations covered by these main groups within the Top 25 growth occupations for hirings (Chart 8), the professionals list is dominated by those in health with four high-skilled occupations included (see below). Technical occupations accounted for a further two, followed by one each from administrative and teaching. Service and sales worker formed the second broad group showing most overall growth in hirings over the period, and this mostly comprised skilled non-manual occupations such as shop salespersons (also the most numerous number of hirings among the Top 25 in the third quarter of 2013 accounting for almost 12 per cent of the total), and waiters and bartenders. However, the Top 25 occupation with the most numerous hirings in the third quarter of 2012, domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers (with 10.5 per cent of the total Top 25 hirings) falls into the elementary skills category. Aggregated by skills level the Top 25 growth occupations were as follows: high-skilled (ten occupations), skilled non-manual (eight occupations), skilled manual (four occupations) and elementary (three occupations). Comparing the growing occupations in terms of employee numbers (Chart 7) with those as measured by number of hirings (Chart 8) shows some differences. These differences could be taken as an indication that if there has been no overall growth in employee numbers in the occupation in addition to growth in hirings, then much of the recruitment activity is likely to have been due to recruitment for labour turnover rather than incremental demand (i.e. the creation of new jobs). The following eleven occupations appeared in the Top 25 hirings but not in the Top 25 by employee numbers growth: High- skilled (6 occupations) legal, social and religious associate professionals, other health associate professionals, medical doctors, nursing and midwifery associate professionals, manufacturing, mining, construction and distribution managers Skilled Non-Manual (4 occupations) childcare workers and teachers aides, shop salespersons, waiters and bartenders, and cooks Skilled Manual (2 occupations) mixed crop and animal producers, garment and related trade workers. There were fourteen occupations appearing in both the Top 25 for hirings and the Top 25 for employee growth between the third quarters of 2012 and 2011 and are grouped below Occupation Hirings Y-o-y 2012Q3 change* Chart 8: Top 25 growth occupations (ISCO-08) - hirings Absolute growth, 2012Q3 compared to 2011Q3, numbers of 2012Q Change (x1,000) Source: Eurostat, LFS data by ISCO-08 3 digit level - own calculations (25 countries). Germany is excluded due to changes of coding occupations in 2012 and Ireland due to partial non-response on ISCO for 2011Q3. Job hirings: employees who were employed in a 'reference week' and had started working for their employer at most three months earlier. Occupations are indicated with broad skills levels: EL = Elementary (ISCO 9); M = Skilled manual (ISCO 6-8); NM = Skilled nonmanual (ISCO 4-5); HS = high-skilled (ISCO 1-3). * Year-on-year change employees: -5% ( ); > -5% and +5% (=) ; > +5% ( ). 11

12 according to skills group: High-skilled (5 occupations) administrative and specialised secretaries ; other teaching professionals ; life sciences professionals ; engineering professionals (excluding electrotechnology) ; nursing and midwifery associate professionals Skilled Non-Manual (4 occupations) personal care workers in health services ; client information workers ; protective services workers ; other sales worker Skilled Manual (2 occupations) other craft and related workers; animal producers Elementary (3 occupations) domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers ; agricultural, forestry and fishery labourer ; manufacturing labourers For these occupations, which range across the skills categories, featuring in both lists tends to indicate that the increased hiring activity is likely to be due to both recruitment for reasons of labour turnover and incremental recruitment. If this pattern was sustained over a longer period then this could be indicative of rising demand for these occupations. Increasing employment and hirings for specialised secretaries and sales workers Job hirings in low to medium-skilled occupations were most numerous in the EU27 in the third quarter of These included occupations such as shop salespersons, domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers, and waiters and bartenders, with these three alone accounting for almost one in every three of all hirings in the Top 25 occupations (Chart 9). Furthermore, these three occupations have been prominent in all previous quarters and this fact underlines their importance in creating employment opportunities though these overall figures say nothing about the quality of the jobs created in these occupations, which are more likely to be part-time, temporary, requiring unsocial working hours and with low pay. Job quality is less likely to be an issue in the next most numerous occupations in the Top 25 of hirings, personal care workers in health services, which accounted for around seven per cent of all the Top 25 hirings during the reference period, thus providing an important source of jobs in the labour market. When comparing the changes in hirings between the third quarters of 2012 and 2011, only two occupations increased their positions in the Top 25 ranking. The first of these, other sales workers is classed as skilled non-manual, and the second, administrative and specialised secretaries as Chart 9 Top 25 occupations with most recent hirings With ranking, indication of employees growth, and numbers of 2012Q3 Ranking Occupations (ISCO-08, 3-digit level) Skills level Employee Hirings 2012Q3 2012Q3 y-o-y change* y-o-y change* job hirings 1 Shop salespersons Skilled NM = = 664,000 2 Domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers Elementary = 592,000 3 Waiters and bartenders Skilled NM = 514,000 4 Personal care workers in health services Skilled NM = 369,000 5 Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers Elementary = 300,000 6 Building frame and related trades workers Skilled M 267,000 7 Manufacturing labourers Elementary = 241,000 8 Transport and storage labourers Elementary = 239,000 9 Client information workers Skilled NM = 221, Mining and construction labourers Elementary 198, Food preparation assistants Elementary = = 184, Protective services workers Skilled NM = 176, Cooks Skilled NM = = 174, Heavy truck and bus drivers Skilled M = 167, Child care workers and teachers aides Skilled NM = = 150, Building finishers and related trades workers Skilled M = 130, Sales and purchasing agents and brokers High = 130, Cashiers and ticket clerks Skilled NM = 126, Other sales workers Skilled NM 125, Physical and engineering science technicians High = 123, Material-recording and transport clerks Skilled NM = 118, Mobile plant operators Skilled M = 114, Other elementary workers Elementary 112, Administrative and specialised secretaries High 110, Other clerical support workers** Skilled NM = 106,000 Total top 25*** 5,648,000 Total *** 9,127,000 * «=» change > -5% and +5%; increase > +5%; decrease -5%. ** UK is excluded for this occupation due to apparent inconsistencies in coding various clerical occupations into ISCO-08. *** Totals exclusive Germany, Ireland and non-response Skilled NM = skilled non-manual; skilled M = skilled manual. 12