AMLO, the PRI, and the Frente: A Look at Mexico s 2018 Election
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1 AMLO, the PRI, and the Frente: A Look at Mexico s 2018 Election November 16, 2017 Wilson Center. Washington, D.C. Jorge Buendía Director of Buendía & Laredo
2 RETROSPECTIVE EVALUATIONS
3 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Jan 2012 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2013 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2014 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2015 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2016 Abr Jul Oct Jan 2017 Abr Jul Oct Source: INEGI & BANXICO
4 COUNTRY S DIRECTION Generally speaking would you say things in Mexico are heading in the right direction or are they on the wrong direction? FEB 2013 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2015 AUG NOV MAR 2016 JUL NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT Very good / somewhat good direction Neither good nor right Very wrong / somewhat wrong direction % of NR/DK not shown
5 PEÑA NIETO S APPROVAL RATING In general, do you approve or disapprove the work that Enrique Peña Nieto is doing as president? Strongly or Somewhat? Strongly/somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Strongly/somewhat disapprove FEB 2013 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2015 MAY AUG NOV MAR 2016 JUL AUG NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT % of NR/DK not shown
6 POLITICAL PARTIES AND THE 2018 ELECTION
7 OPINION OF POLITICAL PARTIES (% OF POSITIVE OPINION) Now, I am going to read you a list with the name of political parties. Please tell me if you have a very good, good, bad or very bad opinion of each one of them. What is your opinion of? FEB 2015 JUN AUG MAR 2016 JUL SEP NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT PAN PRI PRD MORENA
8 OPINION OF POLITICAL PARTIES (% OF NEGATIVE OPINION) Now, I am going to read you a list with the name of political parties. Please tell me if you have a very good, good, bad or very bad opinion of each one of them. What is your opinion of? FEB 2015 JUN AUG MAR 2016 JUL SEP NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT PAN PRI PRD MORENA
9 REJECTION OF POLITICAL PARTIES For what party would you never vote? JUN 2015 JUL 2016 SEP NOV MAR 2017 MAY AUG PAN PRI PRD MORENA OTHER
10 PARTY IDENTIFICATION 70 PEÑA NIETO BECOMES PRESIDENT FEB 2013 MAY AUG OCT NOV FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV FEB 2015 JUN AUG NOV MAR 2016 JUL AUG NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT Panistas Priístas Perredistas De MORENA Independents % OF OTHER PARTIES NOT SHOWN. DATA FROM 2010 TO 2012 ARE ANNUAL AVERAGES.
11 POLL OF POLLS Dirichlet Dynamic Model Hurtado Bodell, M. (2016). Bayesian poll of polls for multi-party systems. POLL OF POLLS (INCLUDING ITEM NONRESPONSE) BAYESIAN DYNAMIC MODEL POLL OF POLLS (EXCLUDING ITEM NONRESPONSE) BAYESIAN DYNAMIC MODEL PAN PRI PRD MORENA NR 19% 18% 5% 20% 29% PAN PRI PRD MORENA 27% 25% 7% 28% PAN+PRD+MC = 26 PRI + PVEM + NA = 23 MORENA+ PT = 21 PAN+PRD+MC = 37 PRI + PVEM + NA = 32 MORENA+ PT = 30 Source: Javier Márquez
12 POLL OF POLLS Multinomial dynamic model with correlated errors Cargnoni, C., Müller, P., & West, M. (1997). Bayesian forecasting of multinomial time series through conditionally Gaussian dynamic models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92(438), POLL OF POLLS (INCLUDING ITEM NONRESPONSE) BAYESIAN DYNAMIC MODEL POLL OF POLLS (EXCLUDING ITEM NONRESPONSE) BAYESIAN DYNAMIC MODEL PAN PRI PRD MORENA NR 20% [17-22] 18% [14-22] PAN+PRD+MC = 28 PRI + PVEM + NA = 23 MORENA+ PT = 21 6% [4-8] 20% [15-26] 28% [22-34] PAN PRI PRD MORENA 27% [24-30] PAN+PRD+MC = 38 PRI + PVEM + NA = 32 MORENA+ PT = 29 25% [19-31] 8% [6-11] 27% [21-35] Source: Javier Márquez
13 NAME RECOGNITION Do you know or have you heard of? AGO NOV MAR 2016 JUL SEP NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AGO OCT Margarita Zavala Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong Miguel Ángel Mancera Andrés Manuel López Obrador Jaime Rodríguez 'El Bronco' Ricardo Anaya
14 OPINION OF CANDIDATES (% of positive opinion) Please tell me if you have a very good, good, bad or very bad opinion of AUG NOV MAR 2016 JUL SEP NOV FEB 2017 MAR MAY AUG OCT Margarita Zavala Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong Miguel Ángel Mancera Andrés Manuel López Obrador Jaime Rodríguez 'El Bronco' Ricardo Anaya
15 HEAD TO HEAD Ricardo Anaya-PAN Ricardo Anaya-PRD Ricardo Anaya-MC M. A. Osorio Chong -PRI M. A. Osorio Chong-PVEM M. A. Osorio Chong-PANAL M. A. Osorio Chong-PES ANAYA: PAN-PRD-MC 22% OSORIO: PRI-PVEM- PANAL-PES 21% Ricardo Anaya PAN-PRD-MC Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong PRI-PVEM Andrés Manuel López Obrador MORENA-PT Ricardo Anaya PAN- PRD-MC Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong PRI-PVEM Andrés Manuel López Obrador MORENA-PT AMLO-PT AMLO-MORENA 6 22 AMLO MORENA-PT 28% Margarita Zavala- Independet 12 Margarita Zavala- Independet 7 M. Zavala-Independent A. Ríos Piter-Independent J. Rodríguez "El Bronco"- Independent Pedro Ferriz- Independent 7 Pedro Ferriz- Independent 5 María de Jesús "Marichuy"- Independent Pedro Ferriz-Independent 2 3 Not defined 23 No answer 24 No answer 12 SOURCE: BUENDÍA & LAREDO SOURCE: EL FINANCIERO SOURCE: CONSULTA MITOFSKY
16 HOW POLARIZED IS MEXICO
17 WORSE ELECTORAL SCENARIO Which of the following do you think would be the worse scenario for Mexico? Difference* Panistas (11%) Priístas (15%) MORENAist (10%) Indep. (56%) That the PRI wins the election That the PRI wins the election That Andrés Manuel López Obrador wins the election 32 0 That AMLO win the election Both 8 0 Both NR/DK NR/DK 5-3 Total *Difference with August survey
18 CLUSTER ANALYSIS Which of the following do you think would be the worse scenario for Mexico? (22.9%) (12.6%) (9%) (9.2%) (4.4%) (6.8%) (8.2%) (26.9%) AMLO Haters AMLO Haters- PRI Haters Not defined PRI Haters MORENA Lovers MORENA Haters- Positive AMLO Positive PRI- Positive AMLO AMLO Lovers
19 CLUSTER ANALYSIS DESCRIPTION Which of the following do you think would be the worse scenario for AMLO Mexico? Haters (22.9%) Opinion of López Obrador Bad (76%). Electoral preference Most of them vote PRI (34%). In second place, they vote PAN (22%). Potential vote 58% could vote PRI, 50% could vote PAN, and 93% would never vote MORENA. Party identification 54% is independent y 27% Priísta. AMLO LOVERS (26.9%) Opinion of López Obrador Good (99%). Electoral preference Most of them vote MORENA (63%). Potential vote 100% could vote MORENA, 45% could vote PAN, and 28% could vote PRI. Party identification 47% is independent y 28% MORENAist. MEDOID Sex: Woman Ages: years Education: Junior High School Occupation: Working Internet: No access Opinion of Education Reform: No response Opinion of Energy Reform: Positive Peña Nieto s approval: Disapprove Country s direction: Wrong direction MEDOID Sex: Man Ages: years Education: High school Occupation: Working Internet: With access Opinion of Education Reform : Positive Opinion of Energy Reform : Negative Peña Nieto s approval: Disapprove Country s direction: Wrong direction
20 RECOGNITION AND OPINION ABOUT REFORMS Which of the following do you think would be the worse scenario for Mexico? EDUCATION REFORM Recognition Positive Negative ENERGY REFORM Recognition Positive Negative NOV 2013 FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV 2015 MAR 2016 AUG MAR 2017 OCT NOV 2013 FEB 2014 MAY AUG NOV 2015 MAR 2016 AUG MAR 2017 OCT % of NR/DK not shown
21 OPINION OF REFORMS IS THERE POLARIZATION AROUND REFORMS? SUPPORT ENERGY SUPPORT EDUCATION AMLO HATERS AMLO LOVERS OPPOSE ENERGY OPPOSE EDUCATION PERCENTAGE
22 1 The race is really close and there is a good chance it will continue to be close 2 This is a fertile ground for negative campaigning 3 The cleavages that structure electoral preferences right now are Continuity vs change (PRI vs no-pri) Postures towards AMLO 4 At this moment, policy polarization has not overlapped with candidate polarization (yet)
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