350 Global Marketing

Transcription

1 1 2 Global Marketing ABS MKT 350 Introduction to Global Marketing & the Global Economic Environment Session 1 part 2 Introduction This chapter includes: An overview of the world economy A survey of economic system types The stages of market development The balance of payments Prof. 3 In the early 20 th century economic integration was at 10%; today it is 50% EU and NAFTA are very integrated Global competitors have displaced or absorbed local ones The World Economy An Overview KS1 4 The World Economy An Overview The new realities: Capital movements have replaced trade as the driving force of the world economy Production has become uncoupled from employment The world economy, not individual countries, is the dominating factor 5 The World Economy An Overview 6 Economic Systems The new realities, continued: 75-year struggle between capitalism and socialism has almost ended E-Commerce diminishes the importance of national barriers and forces companies to re-evaluate business models Private Resource Market Market Capitalism Resource Allocation Command Centrally Planned Capitalism Ownership State Market Socialism Centrally Planned Socialism 1

2 Slide 4 KS1 In the notes, second paragraph: "the figure was 26 percent" To what does figure refer? Also, in the next sentence: "40-year period" Given the dates that are mentioned, there is only about a 22 year span. Please review. Kate Stephenson, 05/04/2012

3 7 8 Market Capitalism Western Market Systems Type of System Key Characteristics Countries Individuals and firms allocate resources Production resources are privately owned Driven by consumers Government s role is to promote competition among firms and ensure consumer protection Anglo-Saxon Private ownership US, Canada, Minimal social safety net Great Britain Social Market Private ownership France, Germany, Economy Model Inflexible employment Italy policies, social partners Nordic Model Mix of state and private Sweden, Norway ownership, large safety net High taxes Centrally Planned Socialism Opposite of market capitalism State holds broad powers to serve the public interest; decides what goods and services are produced and in what quantities Consumers can spend only what is available Government owns entire industries and controls distribution Demand typically exceeds supply Little reliance on product differentiation, advertising, pricing strategy China, India, and the former USSR now moving towards some market allocation and private ownership Centrally Planned Capitalism Economic system in which command resource allocation is used extensively in an environment of private resource ownership Example: Swedish government controls 2/3s of all spending; a hybrid of CPS and capitalism Swedish government plans move towards privatization What is economic freedom? Economic freedom is the fundamental right of every human to control his or her own labor and property. In an economically free society, individuals are free to work, produce, consume, and invest in any way they please, with that freedom both protected by the state and unconstrained by the state. Economic Freedom Rankings of economic freedom among countries free mostly free mostly unfree repressed Variables considered include such things as: Trade policy Taxation policy Capital flows and foreign investment Banking policy Wage and price controls Property rights Black market 2

4 13 14 Free 1. Hong Kong 2. Singapore 3. Australia 4. New Zealand 5. Switzerland 6. Canada 7. Ireland 8. Denmark 9. United States 10. Bahrain Economic Freedom 2011 Rankings Repressed 169. Turkmenistan 170. Timor-Leste 171. Iran 172. Dem. Rep. Congo 173. Libya 174. Burma 175. Venezuela 176. Eritrea 177. Cuba 178. Zimbabwe 179. North Korea Stages of Market Development The World Bank has defined four categories of development using Gross National Income (GNI) as a base BEMs, identified 10 years ago, were countries in Central Europe, Latin America, and Asia that were to have rapid economic growth Today, the focus is on BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, and China Not ranked: Afghanistan, Iraq, Liechtenstein, Sudan 15 Low-Income Countries GNP per capita of $996 or less Characteristics Limited industrialization High percentage of population in farming High birth rates Low literacy rates Heavy reliance on foreign aid Political instability and unrest Concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa Uzbekistan and Turmenistan 16 Lower-Middle-Income Countries GNI per capita: $996 to $3,945 Characteristics Rapidly expanding consumer markets Cheap labor Mature, standardized, labor-intensive industries like footwear, textiles and toys BRIC nations are India, China 17 Upper-Middle-Income Countries GNP per capita: $3,946 to $12,195 Characteristics: Rapidly industrializing, less agricultural employment Increasing urbanization Rising wages High literacy rates and advanced education Chilean copper mine Lower wage costs than advanced countries Also called newly industrializing economies (NIEs) Examples: Brazil, Russia, Malaysia, Chile, Venezuela, Hungary, Mexico 18 Marketing Opportunities in LDCs Characterized by a shortage of goods and services Long-term opportunities must be nurtured in these countries Look beyond per capita GNP Consider the LDCs collectively rather than individually Consider first mover advantage Set realistic deadlines 3

5 19 Mistaken Assumptions about LDCs 1. The poor have no money. 2. The poor will not waste money on nonessential goods. 3. Entering developing markets is fruitless because goods there are too cheap to make a profit. 4. People in BOP (bottom of the pyramid) countries cannot use technology. 5. Global companies doing business in BOP countries will be seen as exploiting the poor. 20 High-Income Countries GNI per capita: $12,196 or more Also known as advanced, developed, industrialized, or postindustrial countries Characteristics: Sustained economic growth through disciplined innovation Service sector is more than 50% of GNI Households have high ownership levels of basic products Tokyo High-Income Countries Characteristics, continued: Importance of information processing and exchange Ascendancy of knowledge over capital, intellectual over machine technology, scientists and professionals over engineers and semiskilled workers Future oriented Importance of interpersonal relationships G-8, the Group of Eight Goal of global economic stability and prosperity U.S. Japan Germany France Britain Canada Italy Russia (1998) 2011 G-8 Leaders in Deauville, France 23 OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 24 The Triad 30 nations Post-WW II European origin Canada, U.S. (1961), Japan (1964) Promotes economic growth and social well-being Focuses on world trade, global issues, labor market deregulation Anti-bribery conventions U.S., Western Europe, and Japan Represents 75% of world income Expanded Triad includes all of North America and the Pacific Rim and most of Eastern Europe Global companies should be equally strong in each part 4

6 25 26 Product Saturation Levels The % of potential buyers or households who own a product India: 20% of people have telephones Autos: 1 per 43,000 Chinese; 21 per 100 Poles; 8 per 1,000 Indians Computers: 1 PC per 6,000 Chinese; 11 PCs per 100 Poles; 34 PCs per 100 EU citizen Balance of Payments Balance of Payments Record of all economic transactions between the residents of a country and the rest of the world Current account record of all recurring trade in merchandise and services, and humanitarian aid trade deficit negative current account trade surplus positive current account Capital account record of all long-term direct investment, portfolio investment, and capital flows 29 Top Exporters and Importers in Overview of International Finance Foreign exchange makes it possible to do business across the boundary of a national currency Currency of various countries are traded for both immediate (spot) and future (forward) delivery Currency risk adds turbulence to global commerce 5

7 31 Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics 32 Managing Economic Exposure Supply and Demand interaction Country sells more goods/services than it buys There is a greater demand for the currency The currency will appreciate in value Economic exposure refers to the impact of currency fluctuations on the present value of the company s future cash flows Two categories of economic exposure: Transaction exposure is from sales/purchases Real operating exposure arises when currency fluctuations, together with price changes, alter a company s future revenues and costs Exchange Risks and Gains in Foreign Transactions 33 Managing Economic Exposure Numerous techniques and strategies have been developed to reduce exchange rate risk Hedging involves balancing the risk of loss in one currency with a corresponding gain in another currency Forward Contracts set the price of the exchange rate at some point in the future to eliminate some risk 34 Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product The monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory. GDP is commonly used as an indicator of the economic health of a country, as well as to gauge a country's standard of living. GDP per capita is the share of individual members of the population to the annual GDP. Mathematically it is calculated by dividing real or nominal GDP by the number of population per year. 35 GDP vs GNI Gross Domestic Product is the value produced within a country s borders, whereas the Gross national Income is the value produced by all the citizens. GDP is said to be the measure of a country s overall economic output. The GNI is the total value that is produced within a country, which comprises of the Gross Domestic Product along with the income obtained from other countries (dividends, interests). Gross Domestic Product helps to show the strength of a country s local income. On the other hand, Gross National Income helps to show the economic strength of the citizens of a country. GNI is based on location, and GDP is based on ownership. 36 GDP per Capita (PPP US $) Qatar 179,000 2 Liechtenstein 141,100 3 Luxembourg 82,600 4 Bermuda 69,900 5 Singapore 62,100 6 Jersey 57,000 7 Norway 54,600 8 Brunei 51,600 9 U.A.E. 49, Kuwait 48, United States 47,200 6

8 37 38 GDP Per Capita Adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) The 2008 Big Mac Index The GDP dollar estimates given on this page are derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations. Using a PPP basis is arguably more useful when comparing generalized differences in living standards on the whole between nations because PPP takes into account the relative cost of living and the inflation rates of the countries, rather than using just exchange rates which may distort the real differences in income. Is a certain currency over/under-valued compared to another? Assumption is that the Big Mac in any country should equal the price of the Big Mac in the U.S. after being converted to a dollar price Global Economic Considerations Key Economic Variables Gross Domestic product Unemployment rates Interest rates & inflation Consumer sentiment Budget Deficits 41 Global Economic Considerations 42 Global Economic Considerations The Price Inflation Process 7

9 43 Global Economic Considerations 44 Global Economic Considerations Employment and Consumer Confidence COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS Political Risk Risk of change in political environment or government policy that would adversely affect a company s ability to operate effectively and profitably When perceived political risk is high, a country will have a difficult time attracting foreign direct investment Who gives. and Who Takes. Source: Aon Global Corporate Marketing and Communications 8

10 49 50 Political is the use of legislated powers by government officials for illegitimate private gain. Misuse of government power for other purposes, such as repression of political opponents and general police brutality, is not considered political corruption. Neither are illegal acts by private persons or corporations not directly involved with the government. An illegal act by an officeholder constitutes political corruption only if the act is directly related to their official duties. All forms of government are susceptible to political corruption. Forms of corruption vary, but include bribery, extortion, cronyism, nepotism, patronage, graft, and embezzlement. While corruption may facilitate criminal enterprise such as drug trafficking, money laundering, and trafficking, it is not restricted to these activities. World map of the 2011 Perceptions Index by Transparency International, which measures "the degree to which corruption is perceived to exist among public officials and politicians". High numbers (green) indicate less perception of corruption, whereas lower numbers (red) indicate higher perception of corruption Who gives. The Rational of The 2008 Bribe Payers Survey allows us to evaluate the informed views of foreign bribery by companies from the 22 countries even further, by exploring the frequency of different types of foreign bribery. The three types of bribery assessed included: bribery of high-ranking politicians or political parties bribery of low-level public officials to speed things up the use of personal or familiar relationships to win public contracts. Who gives. The Rational of Transparency International Bribe Payers Survey In west Africa truck drivers are held up by official checkpoints and must pay bribes to pass through. In Mali, a driver pays over $25 in bribes at some 4/6 checkpoints every 100km. Customs officers are the most successful when it comes to supplementing their income, followed by the police. Political Risk - 54 Discussion Questions Is it realistic to prohibit all forms of corruption in international trade? What possible future political risks do you see in Europe? 9

11 55 Sources of Eco-Politico Data CIA World FactBook - IMF data & Stats - The World Bank site Doing Business In Guides 10