Ignacio Molina and Iliana Olivié May 2011

Transcription

1 Ignacio Molina and Iliana Olivié May 2011

2 What is the IEPG? The Elcano Global Presence Index (IEPG after its initials in Spanish) is a synthetic index that orders, quantifies and aggregates the external projection of different countries in the economic, military, scientific, social and cultural realms.

3 The IEPG intends to be a useful tool for: Analyzing global trends in international presence (evolution of multipolarity and bipolarity, the rise or decline of certain powers and regions, a greater or lesser role for soft as opposed to hard power ). Examining the foreign policy of the countries for which the index is calculated (assessment of their efforts considering outputs, sector-based analysis of presence, the relationship between presence and actual influence).

4 What s new about the IEPG? Indexes Main differences with IEPG Dependent variable Methodology: Quantitative (hard data), Qualitative (perceptions), or Combination of both Indicators: National, International, or Both Elcano Global Presence Index Presence Quantitative International Economic indexes Globalization Index Measuring Globalisation: OECD Economic Globalisation Indicators KOF Index of Globalization Northwest globalization Index Global Competitive Index Index of Economic Freedom Economic globalisation Quantitative Both Economic globalisation Quantitative Both Economic globalisation Quantitative Both Economic globalisation Quantitative Both Economic competitiveness Both Both Economic freedom Both Both Commitment to Development Index Commitment to development Both Both

5 What s new about the IEPG?(II) Indexes Main differences with IEPG Dependent variable Methodology: Quantitative (hard data), Qualitative (perceptions), or Combination of both Indicators: National, International, or Both Elcano Global Presence Index Presence Quantitative International Other indexes The Global Power Barometer Global power (trends) Both Both Global Power City Index Concentration Both National Soft Power in Asia: Results of a 2008 Multinational Survey of Public Opinion Soft power in Asia Qualitative Both Global Peace Index Conditions for maintaining peace Quantitative Both Confidence In U.S. Foreign Policy Index Foreign policy Quantitative National Country Reputation Country image Qualitative Both

6 List of countries studied in the IEPG Argentina Czech Republic Iceland Netherlands Slovenia Australia Denmark Ireland New Zealand South Africa Austria Estonia Israel Nigeria Spain Belgium Finland Italy Norway Sweden Brazil France Japan Poland Switzerland Bulgaria Germany Latvia Portugal Thailand Canada Greece Lithuania Republic of Korea Turkey Chile Hungary Luxembourg Romania United Kingdom China India Malaysia Russian Federation United States of America Colombia Indonesia Malta Saudi Arabia Venezuela Cyprus Iran Mexico Slovakia

7 Criteria for selecting indicators and variables Transnational dimension Unidirectionality Results vs. means Absolute, not relative, presence Quantity as opposed to nature Objective data Minimal number of indicators for a maximum number of cases Variability of data

8 Economy Area indicator description source Trade in goods Trade in services Exports of primary goods (food, beverages, tobacco, agricultural raw materials, ores, metals, precious stones and non-monetary goods) excluding energy; and manufactured goods (chemical products, machinery and transport equipment, and other manufactured goods) Export flows of services (transport, travel, communications, construction, insurance, financial services, computer and information, royalties and license fees, personal, cultural and recreational services, other business services, and government services) UNCTAD Energy Investment s Exports of energy products (fuels) Stock of outward foreign direct investment

9 Economy Area

10 Defense Area indicator description source Troops deployed Capacity for military deployment Number of troops deployed in international missions and foreign bases Weighted sum of strategic transport systems: aircraft carriers, principal amphibious ships and logistical vessels, frigates and heavy transport aircrafts IISS

11 Defense Area

12 Migration and Tourism Area indicator description source Immigration Estimated number of international migrants at mid-year United Nations Population Division Tourism Thousands of arrivals of tourists at borders UNWTO

13 Migration and Tourism Area

14 Culture and Science Area indicator description source Cultural outreach Sports Technological development Scientific research Educational outreach Exports of audiovisual services (music, movies, television, radio) Weighted sum of points in world s men football ranking and medals won in summer Olympic games Foreign-oriented patents: inter-related patent applications field in one or more foreign countries to protect the same invention Number of articles published in the areas of arts and humanities, social sciences and sciences International mobile students in tertiary education WTO and authors estimates FIFA & IOC WIPO Thomson Reuters UNESCO, OCDE and authors estimates

15 Culture and Science Area

16 Development Assistance Area indicator description source Developme nt assistance Total gross flows of official development assistance OECD

17 Development Assistance Area

18 IEPG Structure

19 Aggregating the components of the index estimation of missing cases (2.6 %) linearity of all variables 0-1,000 scale two-levels weighting: experts criteria for one of them Economy 37.3 Defense 17.7 Migration and tourism 11.5 Culture and science 21.5 Development assistance 12.0

20 Elcano Global Presence Index (IEPG)

21 Ignacio Molina and Iliana Olivié May 2011