Current Situation and Outlook of Asia and the Pacific

Transcription

1 ESCAP High-level Policy Dialogue Ministry of Finance of the Republic of International Economic Summit 2013 Eleventh Bank Annual International Seminar Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable Growth with Equity in East Asia May 2013, Yogyakarta, Jointly organized by UN ESCAP, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of and Bank Session 1 Current Macroeconomic Challenges Presentation Current Situation and Outlook of Asia and the Pacific by Aynul Hasan Chief, Development Policy Section, MPDD, ESCAP May 2013 The views expressed in the paper are those of the author(s) and should not necessarily be considered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. This paper has been issued without formal editing.

2 Current Situation and Outlook of Asia and the Pacific Aynul Hasan Chief Development Policy Section, MPDD, ESCAP ESCAP-Bank High-level Policy Dialogue Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable Growth with Equity May 2013, Yogyakarta Key messages economies facing a new normal of lower growth & increased volatility. Time to move from growth first, distribute later to forward-looking policies for inclusive & sustainable growth. 2

3 2013: Subdued regional growth Growth is forecast to increase to 6% in 2013 from 5.6% in 2012 to grow at 8%, up from 7.8% in 2012 to grow at 6.4%, up from 5% in 2012 Inflation likely to remain at 5.1% in 2013 Risk of oil and food price increase Lower growth could be new normal as region shows signs of strain from developed world uncertainty; estimated output loss of $1.3 trillion by end-2017 Pre-crisis ( ): 8% Projected growth ( ): 6.5% GDP growth Developing Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Arab Europe Developing : from 5.6% in 2012 to 6% in 2013 East Asia excl. Japan: from 6.3% in 2012 to 6.5% in Real GDP growth Inflation a b 2013 c b 2013 c Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Hong Kong, Japan Lao PDR Macao Malaysia Mongolia Myanmar Republic of Korea Singapore Timor-Leste Viet Nam East Asia d East Asia excl. Japan d

4 5 Policy challenge 1: Uncertain global environment Fiscal crisis in the euro zone + Policy uncertainty in US Impact on Decreased economic activity through the trade and finance channel Estimated regional GDP loss of 3% since the onset of the global crisis five years ago - $870 billion Loose monetary policies, quantitative easing (QE), of the developed world including in US Impact on Short-term capital flows volatility Rapid short-term currency appreciation Food and fuel price volatility Impact on Poverty and inflation (year-on-year) Russian Federation Republic of Korea Export growth World 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 Kazakhstan Malaysia Vulnerability Yardstick Least vulnerable Most vulnerable Policy challenge 2: Regional slowdown growth slowdown affects the region is currently the largest individual export market for the rest of the region About 50% of imports of intermediate goods to are sourced from developing Asia- Pacific economies and Japan export growth decelerated significantly After mid-2012, 10.5% in the second quarter to 4.5% in the subsequent quarter growth and exports still subdued : Monthly import growth Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Imports: Ordinary Trade Imports: Processing and Assembling Imports: Equipment Imported for Processing and Assembling 6

5 Policy challenge 3: Economic insecurity Decreased job growth, increased economic insecurity and vulnerabilities High incidence of informal sector jobs Nearly 1.1 billion of the region s workforce remain trapped in low quality, more pervasive among women and youth than men Youth employment information Youth unemployment is forecast to edge slightly upwards in % in South-East Asia and the Pacific, 10% in South Asia and 9.8% in East Asia Low social security Less than 2% of GDP in many countries Nepal Pakistan Viet Nam New Zealand Hong Kong, Taiwan province of Australia Pakistan Marshall Islands Republic of Korea Japan Macao, Singapore Viet Nam Informal sector (%) Youth Unemployment (%) Structural impediments 1: Growing inequality Income inequality (Gini index) increased from 33.5 in the 1990s to 37.5 in the latest available year Inequality-adjusted real GDP per capita falls : GDP per capita $4,555 to real GDP per capita $2,323 (in 2005 PPP) Republic of Korea: GDP per capita $27,415 to real GDP per capita $19,492. Inequality reduces social development gains by over 20% Pakistan: Gains reduced by over 30% Russian Federation: Gains reduced by over 10% Singapore Korea Rep Russian Fed Malaysia Kazakhstan Iran Is Rep Azerbaijan Maldives Armenia Mongolia Inequality-adjusted GDP per capita Turkey Georgia Fiji Bhutan GDP per capita Gini-adj Korea Rep Georgia Armenia Kazakhstan Russian Fed Mongolia Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Azerbaijan Tajikistan Maldives Turkey Viet Nam Inequality-adjusted social development index SDI Gini-adj

6 Structural impediments 2: Inadequate tax revenue + progressivity Many economies in the region have failed to raise sufficient tax revenue despite rapid growth Region has lowest tax burden of any developing region in the world The low tax revenue restricts governments fiscal space Negative relationship between the tax burden of countries in the region and their levels of inequality Korea Rep Pakistan Bangladesh Gini coefficient Tax (% of GDP) Government tax and inequality General government taxes/gdp Structural impediments 3: Infrastructure deficit Impediment to growth, especially in South Asia and the Pacific islands LDCs of the region, such as Afghanistan, Cambodia and Myanmar have the largest infrastructure deficits Power is the most critical bottleneck and then transportation Economic cost of traffic congestion: : 1.2% of GDP : 2.1% of GDP Republic of Korea: 2.6% of GDP Financing requirement in the region $600 billion to $800 billion per year Population without electricity access Papua New Guinea Myanmar Solomon Island Afghanistan Vanuatu Timor-Leste Cambodia Korea, Dem Rep Bangladesh Nepal Lao PDR Pakistan Mongolia Bhutan Fiji Samoa Viet Nam Iran, Islamic Rep Malaysia Brunei Darussalam Maldives Korea, Rep

7 Structural impediments 4: Unsustainable resource use economy is requiring more resources to produce one dollar of GDP as the economy grows For example, domestic material consumption intensity and water intensity are very high Future growth of resource use in several countries holds significant implications for overall resource demand Vulnerability to natural disasters 42% of the global economic losses due to natural disasters Disaster losses since 1980 have increased by 16 times in Asia while GDP per capita has grown by only 13 times Domestic material consumption intensity South / South-West North / Central South-East East / North-East 2008 Pacific 1992 World Tonnes per US dollar Water intensity South / South West North / Central South-East East / North East Pacific World Cubic metres per US dollar 11 Growth first, distribute later? Vulnerable employment & inequality hampering productivity growth 12

8 Growth first, distribute later? Social security & minimum wages Public social security expenditure as percentage of GDP (above); Monthly minimum wage rates (right) 13 Time for forward-looking policies Social investments to protect people from multiple shocks & boost their purchasing power and productivity. Global & regional cooperation for long-term development financing (vs. short-term capital flows). 14

9 Thank you! ESCAP-Bank High-level Policy Dialogue Macroeconomic Policies for Sustainable Growth with Equity May 2013, Yogyakarta