Global Consumer Confidence

Transcription

1 Global Consumer Confidence The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen 1ST QUARTER 2018 RESULTS CONTENTS Global Highlights Asia-Pacific Africa and the Middle East Latin America North America Europe

2 BACK TO CONTENTS PAGE Global Consumer Confidence Index: Global Highlights Key Insights The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Index improved by 1 point in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the last quarter of 2017, reaching a new all-time high of 106. Out of 36 mature economies, 14 countries, including the United States and Germany, had consumer confidence gains of 2 or more points, while only 8 out of 28 emerging market economies had gains. Among the world s largest 10 economies, the United States and Germany showed an increase in consumer confidence of more than 5 points, and Brazil had an increase of 3 points. Confidence declined in 17 of 64 countries globally, with the largest declines in emerging market economies. Global Consumer Confidence Index improved in the first quarter of 2018 The global economy has been improving lately, as has global trade and investment. Global GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in 2017, when confidence remained high, compared to 2.6 percent in Growth is expected to remain solid this year. Consumers seem to be confident as well, as suggested by the latest update of The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Index (the TCB Global CCI ), which increased in the first quarter of 2018 by 1 point, reaching an all-time high level. There are a number of exceptions to the general improvement in confidence, though. For instance, of the 64 countries surveyed, 22 countries had an increase in consumer confidence greater than 2 points, while 17 had a decline of similar magnitude. On average, countries in Europe as well as Africa and the Middle East are the ones where confidence declined, whereas countries in North America had the largest gain over the previous quarter. The following chart shows the level of the index in Q1 2018, and the table on page 4 reports the results on a country-by-country basis compared to Q GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX, Q1 2018: 106 Norway 89 Canada 103 US 123 Mexico Venezuela Colombia Brazil 88 Chile 95 Argentina 83 Sweden 99 UK Poland 96 Germany FranceSwitzerland Turkey Spain ItalyGreece Morocco 61 Israel 105 UAE Saudi Arabia 95 South Africa 95 Kazakhstan 79 India 130 Russia 68 South Korea China 59 Japan 115 Vietnam Taiwan Philippines Thailand Indonesia 127 Australia 91 New Zealand 104 2

3 Overall, the general trend is one of increasing consumer confidence, and for industries which are largely consumer-centric, the short-term outlook remains promising. Some larger markets, such as the United States (US), India, Germany, UK, Brazil, and Mexico, could experience improvements; however, prospects may become more challenging in some of the smaller, wealthier economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where confidence declined. Globally, consumers perceptions on the current state of the economy, job prospects, personal financial situation, and recession risks for the next 12 months have not changed substantially in the first quarter of 2018, compared to the last quarter of On average, 40 percent of global respondents consider job prospects in the next 12 months not so good and 33 percent feels similarly about their personal financial situation. The pessimism over the health of the economy varies notably across countries, with more than 60 percent of consumers in 27 of the 64 countries claiming their economy is not in a good condition. But that number declined substantially to 15 countries when asked about their expectation of the recession continuing to the next 12 months. Thus, despite the low confidence in the current state of the economy, consumers largely hold a positive view of the future an encouraging signal for consumer-facing businesses. 3

4 BACK TO CONTENTS PAGE Global Consumer Confidence Index by Region and Country Q Q Change Q Q Change Global Consumer Confidence Index Asia-Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Africa & The Middle East Egypt Morocco Pakistan Saudi Arabia South Africa UAE Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Mexico Peru Venezuela North America Canada US Europe Austria Belarus Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Israel Italy Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK Ukraine

5 BACK TO CONTENTS PAGE Global Consumer Confidence Index: Global Ranking Country Rank Q Country Rank Q India Philippines Indonesia Vietnam US China Denmark Thailand UAE Czech Republic Germany Pakistan Hong Kong Israel Malaysia Switzerland New Zealand Poland Canada Ireland Netherlands Austria Colombia Sweden Singapore UK Saudi Arabia South Africa Chile Peru Mexico Australia Spain Romania Portugal Slovakia Norway Turkey Belgium Brazil Japan Latvia Egypt Argentina Costa Rica Finland Estonia Bulgaria Slovenia Taiwan Kazakhstan France Hungary Croatia Lithuania Serbia Russia Morocco Italy Greece Belarus South Korea Ukraine Venezuela

6 BACK TO CONTENTS PAGE Global Consumer Confidence Index: Asia-Pacific Confidence in Asia-Pacific remains high and further improved in the first quarter of 2018 Overall consumer confidence in the Asia-Pacific region improved by 1 point, from 114 in the last quarter of 2017 to 115 in the first quarter of The wealthier countries within the region maintain a relatively low level of confidence compared to their less wealthy counterparts. While concerns over jobs and personal finances for the upcoming year are less dominant in this region, the overall health of the economy is a worry for many consumers. Now, 59 percent of consumers across Asia-Pacific, excluding China, claims their country is in recession. But 40 percent say the recession will be over in the next 12 months. Asia-Pacific had the highest level of consumer confidence after North America. Moreover, consumers in Asia-Pacific remain relatively optimistic, with confidence increasing by 1 point from 114 in Q to 115 in Q1 of this year. Fast-growing countries in the region Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia had an annual average GDP growth of 6 7 percent in the last quarter of 2017, and saw confidence improve by more than 2 points, with Vietnam and Malaysia surging by 9 and 10 points respectively. These two countries posted among the top 5 increases across the world. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, Q1 2018: 115 GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, Q1 2018: 115 China 115 South Korea 59 Japan 86 India 130 Hong Kong Taiwan Vietnam Philippines Thailand Malaysia Singapore Indonesia 127 Australia New Zealand 104 6

7 Taiwan and Philippines posted the region s biggest declines in confidence, down 3 points, followed by somewhat lower declines in some of the region s wealthier nations, including New Zealand, Hong Kong, South Korea and Thailand. Japan and Singapore saw an increase of 2 and 3 points, respectively. Yet these countries still have a relatively low level of confidence compared to their less wealthy counterparts within the region, most of which maintained a confidence level above 100. China, the largest economy in the Asia-Pacific, has a reasonably higher level of confidence at 115 and is 1 point higher than the last quarter. Moreover, 70 percent of respondents are optimistic about job prospects and their personal financial situation for the coming 12 months. In Q4 2017, the Philippines had the highest confidence level at 131, but has conceded the top spot after declining 3 points in Q India now boasts the highest confidence level globally, despite no change this quarter. In general, India, Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam have higher levels of confidence than the rest of the Asia-Pacific countries. High confidence in these economies is in keeping with their fast growth and higher potential for further growth. Wealthier countries within the region, such as Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Thailand, remained below the region s average level of confidence, while Singapore, Australia, and to a greater extent South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are well-below the regional average and in pessimistic territory of below 100. Asia-Pacific s consumers have more confidence in the short-term future of their economies, job prospects and personal finances. This optimism may help future confidence and also impact spending decisions. However, consumers also foresee some short-term challenges, such as the current condition of the economy, job security, health, and work-life balance. These concerns may result in curbing their discretionary spending this year and therefore, consumer facing businesses need to keep a close eye on changes in consumer sentiments. 7

8 Global Consumer Confidence Index: Africa and the Middle East BACK TO CONTENTS PAGE Confidence declined marginally in Africa and the Middle East Overall confidence in Q declined by 1 point to 91 from the previous quarter. Confidence rose by 15 points in South Africa and just 1 point in Egypt. The rest of the region experienced an erosion in confidence, with the largest decline in Morocco (-13), followed by UAE (-8), Pakistan (-5) and Saudi Arabia (-4). Consumers in the UAE, however, are the most confident in the region with confidence at 110, followed by Pakistan at 107. With its continued loss of consumer confidence, Morocco has the lowest level of confidence at 67. Concern over the current health of the economy is quite dominant in all countries with more than 60 percent of respondents claiming their economies are in recession, except in the UAE. Confidence levels in Africa and the Middle East declined 1 point to 91 and remain lower than Asia-Pacific, North America, and the global average, but higher than Europe and Latin America. The decline was widespread only South Africa and Egypt had a gain in confidence over the previous quarter. Morocco and the UAE experienced large declines, by 13 and 8 points respectively, and Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, saw a drop of 4 points. While confidence in the UAE remains strong, the situation in Morocco is quite the opposite, with consumers growing increasingly pessimistic. Moreover, 65 percent of Moroccan respondents said they were worried about job prospects, and nearly half were also apprehensive about their personal finances. Rising food prices is a major concern for Moroccan consumers, and has curbed spending on discretionary goods. Overall, despite the decline, the current confidence levels in Africa and the Middle East remain sound compared to historical levels and are suggestive of continued business opportunities for consumer-centric businesses. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST, Q1 2018: 91 Morocco 67 Egypt 85 Saudi Arabia 95 UAE 110 Pakistan South Africa 95 8

9 BACK TO CONTENTS PAGE Global Consumer Confidence Index: Latin America Confidence modestly improved in Latin American countries, but is confined to Brazil and Mexico After a marginal drop in Q4 2017, overall confidence improved from 87 to 88 in the first quarter of The increase in this region was not widespread: confidence increased only in Brazil and Mexico, while it declined in all other markets besides Venezuela, where it remained at the low level of 57. The largest decline was in Peru, which gave up almost all of its 10-point increase in the previous quarter, bringing confidence down from 104 to 95. The highest level of confidence in the region is now in Colombia, followed by Chile and Peru. Concerns about job prospects in the next 12 months and the current state of the economy are wide-spread across Latin America, except in Chile. As a whole, nearly 70 percent of respondents in the region consider job prospects to be not good for the upcoming year. The TCB Global CCI for Latin America improved in the first quarter of The improvement was not widespread but confined to the two largest economies in the region, Brazil and Mexico. Despite the political uncertainty over the outcome of upcoming presidential elections in both countries, consumers are increasingly confident, with confidence levels increasing by 3 and 5 points, respectively. Job prospects posed a concern for nearly 70 percent of respondents in both countries. Confidence remained extremely low in Venezuela, and declined in all other markets, including Argentina, the third largest economy in the region. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR LATIN AMERICA, Q1 2018: 88 Mexico 93 Costa Rica 83 Colombia 99 Venezuela 57 Peru 95 Brazil 88 Argentina Chile 95 9

10 Peru had the largest decline in confidence, which is mostly a reflection of consumers less optimistic perspective on job prospects. However, Peru has the third highest level of confidence in the region, after Colombia and Chile, so the impact should be subdued. Job prospects are a big concern across the region, with the exception of Chile, with nearly 70 percent of respondents in Latin America as a whole claiming job prospects are not good for the upcoming year. Personal finances posed less of a concern for respondents across the region, except in Venezuela. In Venezuela, job prospects, personal finances, and economy are eroding consumers confidence and spending intentions. The country is embroiled in economic and political turmoil, which has resulted in a shortage of food and other essentials. Be it policy mismanagement, corruption or the fall in oil prices, the future of this economy is alarming, and consumers are very wary about prospects for the Venezuelan economy. Other than job prospects, Latin American consumers have a fairly bleak view of the current health of the economy, with nearly 80 percent (ranging from 60 percent in Peru to 97 percent in Venezuela) claiming their economy is in recession. Chile is again an exception to this pervasive concern about the state of economy. Job security, not surprisingly, is rated as the top concern in 6 out of 8 Latin American countries, followed by the state of the economy. While the decline in confidence in most Latin American economies are worrying, it is encouraging for consumer-facing businesses to learn that consumers in larger regional economies are growing in confidence. Focusing on large economies and trying to leverage those investments to push products and solutions into other economies may be an appropriate strategy. 10

11 BACK TO CONTENTS PAGE Global Consumer Confidence Index: North America Confidence improved in the first quarter of 2018 and remains high in North America North America experienced the largest gain in consumer confidence, 4 points, reaching an all-time high of 121. Consumer confidence increased in both Canada and United States, rising by 5 points to 123 in the US, and by 2 points to 103 in Canada. The selloff in the US stock markets did not affect consumers optimism in the first quarter, and improving labor market conditions, low inflation and rising wages contributed to and should continue to sustain confidence in the US. Consumers in Canada also remain confident. Yet the uncertainties around NAFTA may have important implications for future consumer confidence and behavior. Consumers in both the US and Canada are confident about job prospects, the state of the economy and personal finances. North America had the largest gain in consumer confidence in the first quarter of Consumer confidence in both Canada and US increased, with confidence increasing by 5 points to 123 in the United States and by 2 points to 103 in Canada. In the US, the stronger growth in the end of 2017 raised the level of confidence in the economy, which, along with lowest unemployment levels in two decades, low inflation and rising wages, seems to have translated into increased spending and consumer confidence. Moreover, it appears that the selloff in US stock markets did not affect consumers optimism. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR NORTH AMERICA, Q1 2018: 121 Canada 103 US Note: The quarterly US data shown here are based on The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey and are included to enable country/regional comparisons. These data and methodology differ from the Consumer Confidence Survey and Consumer Confidence Index which are published monthly by The Conference Board. 11

12 Despite a weakening currency and declining stock prices, consumers in Canada expressed greater confidence. Concerns over the US-China trade war and uncertainties around NAFTA that have implications for US Canada relation had yet to impact consumer sentiment at the time of the survey, but these developments may impact consumer sentiment in the future. Consumer-facing businesses may want to monitor these developments to see if they have any meaningful impact on consumer confidence in the medium-term. Consumers in North America showed little concern over job prospects in the next 12 months, with more than half of respondents in Canada and nearly 70 percent in the US believing that job prospects are good. This is in conformity with the tightening labor market in the US and low unemployment rates. Furthermore, personal finances aren t constraining consumption in either country. On average 70 percent in the region consider their personal financial situation to be good for the next 12 months. Consumers in both countries are also confident about the state of the economy. Among the main concerns expressed by consumers are health and debt, with debt being dominant in Canada and health in the US. In general, these sentiments should support consumer spending in the upcoming months in the region, which is good news for many consumer-centric businesses and overall economic growth. 12

13 BACK TO CONTENTS PAGE Global Consumer Confidence Index: Europe Confidence declined marginally in Europe in the first quarter of 2018 Bucking the recent increasing trend globally, consumer confidence in Europe has declined, albeit marginally, by 1 point. In more than one-third of European countries, consumer confidence declined, with the largest declines seen in Turkey and Bulgaria. The level of confidence in this region remains the lowest across the world, yet confidence in some countries like Germany, Austria, Denmark, Netherlands, Poland and Switzerland are higher than the regional average. The biggest gains in consumer confidence are in Latvia (13 points), Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Serbia (all 5 points). Despite a tightening labor market in much of Europe, European consumers in general are less optimistic about their job prospects than their global counterparts. However, concerns about the availability of jobs are relatively lower in Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, Denmark and Czech Republic. Consumer confidence in Europe improved consistently throughout 2017 in line with an improving labor market and output growth. At the beginning of this year confidence levels declined marginally, to 86 in Q from 87 in Q4 2017, but remains lower than in other regions. Among the 15 eurozone countries, only four Austria, Germany, Ireland and Netherlands had a confidence level above 100. In 12 of the 34 European countries consumer confidence declined, with the biggest decline in Turkey (-23 points), followed by Bulgaria (-8 points). Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Slovenia, Spain, Lithuania, Denmark, Austria, and Italy all had a decline of 2 points or more, whereas confidence in France, Poland, Estonia, Belarus, and the UK remained unchanged. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INDEX FOR FOR EUROPE, EUROPE, Q1 2018: Q : Ireland 103 Portugal 90 Spain 91 UK 96 Norway 89 Denmark 114 Sweden 99 Finland 82 Estonia 81 Latvia 86 Lithuania 77 Netherlands Poland 101 Germany 103 Belgium 108 Czech Republic Slovakia Austria 90 France Switzerland 100 Hungary 104 Slovenia 78 Romania 79 Croatia Italy Serbia Bulgaria 81 Greece 61 Belarus 60 Ukraine 58 Turkey 89 Russia 68 Kazakhstan 79 Israel

14 In less than half of the European countries both west and east there is high concern about the future of the economy, with nearly 60 percent of respondents saying their country is and will remain in recession over the next 12 months. Only 12 percent of respondents across European countries had confidence that the region s economy will regain strength in the next 12 months. Overall, the trend in consumer confidence points to a moderation in Europe s growth prospects. Job security and health were cited as top concerns for the region over the next six months. The concern over job prospects in the next 12 months was highest in Belarus, Greece, Ukraine, Italy, Russia, Croatia and Turkey. On the other end of the spectrum, less than one-third of consumers in Germany, Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland, Denmark and Czech expressed concern over job prospects. These countries have seen very low unemployment rates in recent months. Furthermore, in the troubled economies of Europe, such as Italy, Greece, Ukraine and Russia, consumers personal financial situation came out as a major concern over the next 12 months and will likely impact their willingness to spend. 14

15 About The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. It was conducted in February 2018 and polled more than 32,000 online consumers in 64 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample includes internet users who agreed to participate in this survey and has quotas based on age and gender for each country. It is weighted to be representative of internet consumers by country. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. However, a probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of error of ±0.6% at the global level. This survey is based only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country. The Conference Board uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The Nielsen China Consumer Confidence Index is sourced from a separate survey conducted by Nielsen China, which is based on a mixed methodology survey of more than 2,400 respondents in China. The Global Consumer Confidence Survey was established in About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: to provide the world s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (US), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity, holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the USA. About Nielsen Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers Watch and Buy. Nielsen s Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement services across all devices where content video, audio and text is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry s only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen provides its clients with both world-class measurement as well as analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries that cover more than 90% of the world s population. For more information, visit THE CONFERENCE BOARD, INC. ( ) AMERICAS customer.service@conferenceboard.org ASIA service.ap@conferenceboard.org EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA brussels@conferenceboard.org THE COMMITTEE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONFERENCE BOARD THE CONFERENCE BOARD OF CANADA Copyright 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. All rights reserved.