Markets in higher education

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1 Markets in higher education Simon Marginson Institute of Education (IOE) Conference on The State and Market in Education: Partnership or Competition? The Grundtvig Study Centre Aarhus University and LLAKES, IOE 21 March 2014, IOE

2 National and global perspectives

3 High Participation Systems (HPS)

4 Declining value of credentials in HPS but graduate premium is maintained

5 Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio 1995/2011 Selected OECD and European systems, UNESCO Institute for Statistics data 2014

6 Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio 1995/2011 World regions, UNESCO Institute for Statistics data 2014 North America & Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe La n America & Carribean East Asia & Pacific Central Asia Arab States South & West Asia Sub-Saharan Africa WORLD

7 Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio, 2011 Post-Confucian systems UNESCO Institute for Statistics & Taiwan Ministry of Education South Korea Taiwan (2010) Macau SAR Hong Kong SAR Japan China Vietnam Singapore world India Data not available

8 Asian middle class (millions) Source of extrapolation: European Union Institute for Strategic Studies A middle class person is defined as someone living on USD $ per day PPP

9 Economic demand

10 Social demand

11 Marketisation and HPS

12 Quasi-markets

13 Stratification in HPS

14 Bifurcation

15 Cost pressures and positional competition drive stratification

16 Social demand varies in time, place and form

17 Different states, different political cultures, different educational cultures

18 Journal papers per year, Total world output US National Science Foundation data 900, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

19 Three leading producers of science: journal papers per year, Source: US National Science Foundation data, , , , ,000 50, USA UK China

20 51 countries with 1000 journal papers p.a. US National Science Foundation data for 2011 ANGLO- SPHERE EUROPE EU NATIONS EUROPE NON-EU ASIA LATIN AMERICA Australia Austria Italy Croatia* China Argentina Canada Belgium Netherlands Norway India Brazil N. Zealand Czech Rep. Poland Russia Japan Chile* UK Denmark Portugal* Serbia* Malaysia* Mexico USA Finland Romania* Switzerland Pakistan* M.EAST /AF France Slovakia Turkey Singapore Egypt Germany Slovenia* Ukraine South Korea Iran* Greece Sweden Taiwan Israel Hungary Spain Thailand* Saudi Arab.* Ireland Sweden Sth. Africa *countries that reached the annual level of 1000 journal papers after 1995 (12 out of 51) Tunisia*

21 World-Class Universities

22 Fast growing Post-Confucian systems journal papers per year, Source: US National Science Foundation data, 2014

23 Shanghai ARWU top 500 universities Chinese systems, 2005 & China mainland 8 28 Hong Kong SAR 5 5 Taiwan China 5 9 total 18 42

24 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Some other fast growing systems: journal papers per year, Source: US National Science Foundation data, Brazil Iran Portugal Ireland Malaysia

25 Globalisation, HPS and stratification

26 Imagining the global market

27 Top ten school systems OECD PISA 2012 (mean student scores, Post Confucian education systems in yellow) Reading Mathematics Science Shanghai China 570 Shanghai China 613 Shanghai China 580 Hong Kong SAR 545 Singapore 573 Hong Kong SAR 555 Singapore 542 Hong Kong SAR 561 Singapore 551 Japan 538 Taiwan 560 Japan 547 South Korea 536 South Korea 554 Finland 545 Finland 524 Macao SAR 538 Estonia 541 Taiwan 523 Japan 536 South Korea 538 Canada 523 Liechtenstein 535 Vietnam 528 Ireland 523 Switzerland 531 Poland 526 Poland 518 Netherlands 523 Liechtenstein 525 Vietnam 508 Vietnam 511 Canada 525 UKA 499 UK 494 UK 514 USA 498 USA 481 USA 497

28

29 Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities top 200, 2013 China, 5 Hong Kong, 2 other Asia, 3 Japan, 9 La n America, 3 Israel, 4 Saudi Arabia, 1 other Europe, 4 Denmark, 3 Italy, 4 Belgium, 4 Sweden, 5 USA, 85 Switzerland, 6 Netherlands, 8 France, 8 Germany, 14 Australia, 7 Canada, 8 UK, 19

30 MOOCs

31 Students enrolled outside their country of citizenship, millions, OECD data, 2013

32 4.3 million foreign tertiary students, 2011: world market shares (OECD data) other non-oecd, 15% other OECD, 8% Belgium, 1% Netherlands, 1% Switzerland, 1% Korea, 2% South Africa, 2% Austria, 2% Italy, 2% New Zealand, 2% USA, 17% UK, 13% Australia, 6% Germany, 6% China, 2% Spain, 3% Russia, 4% Canada, 5% Japan, 4% France, 6%

33 Regional origins of foreign students, 2011 OECD data 2013

34 Leiden University ranking top 12 largest number of journal papers in University total papers normalised citations per paper world av =1.00 papers in top 10% of research field, field-normalised citations 1 Harvard U USA 29, % 2 U Toronto CANADA 18, % 3 U Michigan USA 15, % 4 U Tokyo JAPAN 14, % 5 U California (LA) USA 13, % 6 Johns Hopkins U USA 13, % 7 U Washington, Seattle USA 12, % 8 Stanford U USA 12, % 9 U Oxford UK 12, % 10 U Pennsylvania USA 12, % 11 U Cambridge UK 11, % 12 U Sao Paulo BRAZIL 11, %

35 Public good through higher education

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