The Social Network Perspective

Transcription

1 The Social Network Perspective Prof. Kathleen M. Carley Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems

2 Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU Network Science - Connecting the Dots and Trails to Predict and Explain Behavior

3 Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU What is a Network? Ties Between Nodes (links) Who do you like or respect? Transfer of resources Authority lines Association or affiliation Alliance Substitution Precedence Proximity Nodes People Units of action Coalition partners Departments Resources Ideas or Skills Events Nation-states Networks are ubiquitous

4 4 We pull out the Meta-Network WHAT: Tasks Events HOW: Resources, Knowledge WHERE: Location WHO: People, Teams Organizations WHY: Beliefs Baseline Without Top Conservative Without Top Liberal

5 Name of Meta-matrix Entity Individual Agent Knowledge on Resource Task-Event Organizati Location Role Attribute Abdul chemicals chemicals bomb, Al Qaeda operative 26-Feb-93 Rahman World Yasin Trade Center Abu Abbas Hussein mastermindi Dying, Green Iraq terrorist palestinian ng Achille Berets Baghdad 1985 Lauro cruise ship hijackin 2000 Hisham Al school phone, M anila, second February Hussein bomb Zamboanga secretary 13, 2003, October 3, 2002 Abu Madja phone Abu Philippine leader Sayyaf, Al Qaeda Hamsiraji phone Abu Philippine leader Ali Sayyaf, Al Qaeda Abdurajak Jamal 1980s Janjalani Mohammad Khalifa, Osama bin brother-inlaw Laden Hamsiraji Saddam $20,000 Abu Basilan commander Ali Hussein Sayyaf, Iraqis Muwafak business bomb Philippines, terrorists, Iraqi al-ani card M anila diplomat 1991 Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU 5 Build Tools and Workflows Network - Exist and Are Improving Text Mining for extracting, Data analyzing, forecasting, Assess Collection Analyze Statistics SNA, DNA, Link Analysis Change, What if Analysis Multi-agent DNA WEB SCRAPER Meta-Network DyNetML

6 6 Identify: Who are the Key Players? Drilling down *ORA s Key Entity Report shows 3 agents critical to operations. Narrow our focus from set of interstitial members to small group of leaders.

7 7 Assess: How are they organized? FOG (Fuzzy Group Clustering) shows suspicious entities organized into 5 groups w/shared members. Interstitial members are likely to contain coordinators & leaders

8 Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU 8 Geo-Enabled Network Analysis Networks In an Area Location as Match Criteria Visualizing Networks in Space Trails Information Loss Tracking

9 9 Socio-Cultural Data is Every Where Unstructured Text e.g. interviews, news articles, blogs, Various on-line sources Semi-structured Blogs s Crowd-sourced Structured Government and corporate documents Proceedings Unstructured Sudan Tribune Review Year articles Archive of Lobban writing Semi-structured UN Reports IDA Study 1796 files Structured African gazateer

10 Georeferencing news (here, crime) with emphasis on location MetaCarta, crime around Washington as shown on Google Earth MetaCarta Copywrite 10

11 Geo-Referencing Challenges Khartoum escalates conflict in Eastern, Southern Sudan, and Darfur Sunday 15 January :30. By Eric Reeves Easy Less Easy Hard Very Hard Jan 14, 2006 A wide range of recent news and policy reports clearly reveal the consequences of ongoing international failure to confront Khartoum s National Islamic Front, the dominant force in Sudan s nominal "Government of National Unity." For the NIF continues to escalate a series of militarily-driven crises in Africa s largest country, all of which imperil the widely heralded north/south peace agreement of a year ago. Physicians for Human Rights and the International Crisis Group have released particularly important reports: on the aftermath of genocidal violence in Darfur; on the growing military confrontation in eastern Sudan; and on Khartoum s continuing support for the destabilizing Lord s Resistance Army in southern Sudan and northern Uganda. Yet other reports suggest that a border war between Chad and Sudan, in areas that are filled with desperate refugees and internally displaced persons, may break out at any time. 11 ~40% accuracy with gazateers

12 Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2008 WVHTC 12 WVHTC Lunch Data

13 13 ORA-Loom Trails Lunch Day 1 Each location is a table. The unknown location is the enter or exit Most people go to 2 or more tables. The 5 th column shows the most popular region. Next step: common trails

14 Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU 14 Visit Network Lunch Data - Day 1 4 tables are visited by almost all people (located in middle) Geo-temporal metric e.g. following, meeting, hiding

15 15 Drug Seizure: Origins to Destinations

16 16 Drug Seizures Regular Louisville Nashville Houston Albuquerque Betweenness Tucson Atlanta Louisville Albuquerque Spatial Geo-Network Measures Improve focus

17 Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU 17 Networks Vary Over Time, And Media Choice has Geo-Relation Face-to-Face Are there regular spatial relations?

18 18 Timeline Event Bashir Garang Taha Kiir Darfur rebellion President International recognition of Genocide UN Sanctions Autonomo us S. Sudan VP Died S. Sudan President VP S. Sudan President Khartoum governme nt and Sudan Liberation Movement sign peace accord War crime charges Increased UN presence Sudan- Chad accord

19 Summary Table Year No of Texts No of Sudan Agents No of Total Agents No of Tribes No of Sudan Organizations No of Total Organizations Density of Sudan Agents Density of All Agents Density of Tribe Network Dominant Organization Sudan Liberation Movement Fur Dinka Dinka Dinka Dinka Dominant Issue Ecology, Land Water Use Land Water Use, Ideology Ideology, Economy Ideology, Economy Economy, Ideology Land Water Use, Economy

20 Increasing Complexity in Tribal Areas of Conflict Administration Politics Land Water Rights Grazing Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU 20

21 21 Points of Conflict According to the U.N. Water Rights Grazing Administration Politics Rapid Ethnographic Assessment Provides Better Picture but geo-referencing is har Are there regular spatial relations? Land Van Holt, Johnson, Carley and Lobban

22 22 Within the Sudan at a macro level there is little change

23 23 Who Connects Disconnected Groups Within the Sudan? High Betweenness Low Degree Bashir Minnawi Garang

24 24 Who is the Emergent Leader Within the Sudan Garang Bashir Taha Kiir Minnawi

25 25 Basic Tribal Structure Linking Ties to Borders and Areas - Difficult Sudan Tribal Network - Hereditary Tribal Network in the News

26 The Network of American Cities Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU 26

27 No Geo-Spatial Relation! Dec 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU 27

28 28 Media Differences by U.S. cities Different Cities have different networks leading to differen diffusion patterns and so distribution of results %Change in Behavior

29 29 Summary & Challenges Summary Sufficient Metrics & Visualizations exist Geo-DNA tools exist Challenges But they need to be speeded up and size reduced Drill down find information of interest from a combined spatial temporal network perspective Location identification in texts Geo-temporal network forecasts