EIBTM 2014 TRENDS WATCH REPORT

Transcription

1 EIBTM 2014 TRENDS WATCH REPORT ROB DAVIDSON Knowledge Programme sponsored by Organised by The EIBTM and IBTM trademarks are owned and protected by Elsevier Properties SA and Reed Exhibitions Limited uses such trademark under licence. Hosted Buyer is a registered trademark of Reed Exhibitions Limited. Reed Travel Exhibitions is a registered trademark of Reed Elsevier Group Plc. Reed Travel Exhibitions is a registered trademark of Reed Elsevier Group Plc.

2 The Global Economic Situation in 2014

3 The Global Economic Situation in 2014 Global economic growth but mainly in emerging economies Stagnation in the Eurozone. The threat of deflation Japan back in recession. A strengthening US economy and a stronger US$

4 The Global Economic Situation in 2014 Slowing rates of growth in the BRIC economies But a major trade deal between China and Australia The Russian economy is slowing as a consequence of the conflict in Ukraine stronger trade links with China and Asian markets Expansion in sub-saharan African economies increasing urbanisation, young populations A new normal of modest growth in developed economies and stabilisation of growth in emerging economies Deloitte s Global Economic Outlook

5 Key corporate markets - ICT

6 Key corporate markets - ICT Top markets for revenue growth: US, China and the UK Data & Analytics = leading source of growth The US, India and China are expected to be the leading markets for job growth Also high expectations for Canada, the UK and Germany American capital flowing into the European ICT sector

7 Key corporate markets - Automotive

8 Key corporate markets - automotive The US and China account for over 55% of global car sales China has been the world s largest car market since 2010 Western car manufacturers (via joint ventures with Chinese state-owned makers) have a 60% share of that market.

9 Key corporate markets - Automotive 2013 growth rate Units sold 2014 growth rate Units sold (est.) China percent 18 million +10 percent 20 million United States +7.5 percent 16 million +4 percent 16.5 million Europe -1.8 percent 12.3 million +3 percent 12.6 million Russia -5.5 percent 2.8 million -2 percent 2.7 million India -10 percent 1.8 million +4 percent 1.9 million Brazil -1 percent 2.76 million +3 percent 2.85 million

10 Key corporate markets - Pharmaceutical

11 Key corporate markets - Pharmaceutical Growing expenditure on R&D: 2004: US$88 billion 2013: US$135 billion 2018: US$149 billion (est.) Strong pipelines for pharma companies Expansion in the Chinese market But Western governments reducing expenditure on pharma products although Obamacare will lead to a 5% increase in US demand, with 7 million newly-insured citizens

12 Key corporate markets - Pharmaceutical

13 Key corporate markets - Construction

14 Key corporate markets - Construction Confidence is back, especially in the US Even in Europe: construction to grow on average by 1.8% a year from But wide variations: Ireland: +9% Poland: +6% Czech Republic and Spain still below 2013 levels The developing world and the Middle East account for more than half of global growth.

15 Association conferences

16 Association conferences Marketing Challenges International s survey report, Trends in International Association Meetings from North America 91% of planners expect their budgets to increase or remain the same for their upcoming events. A significant percentage of association planners expressed willingness to repeat locations for their largest international events

17 Association conferences Less concern for destination s reputation, so emerging destinations have a role to play During the research and planning stages, convention bureaus and tourist boards are a crucial resource to planners: 83% of the survey respondents reported using CB services: Site visits (74 percent of respondents) Marketing materials (52 percent) Impartial advice (51 percent) Venue finding services (45 percent) Bid support (45 percent).

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19 Association conferences

20 Association conferences There is clear evidence of growth in the number of association meetings being held worldwide, as the total number of meetings in the UIA database for 2013 reached 408,798, a significant rise from the 392,588 meetings on the database for the previous year.

21 Incentive Travel

22 Incentive Travel Two key surveys this year point to a resurgence in the use of incentive travel and upbeat expectations for the future of this sector. SITE International Foundation s most recent Index Annual Survey demonstrated that optimism about the overall use of motivational travel experiences is at a four-year high The Incentive Research Foundation Fall Pulse Survey, conducted in August of this year: Two-thirds of the respondents were positive or strongly positive about the impact of the economy on IT.

23 Incentive Travel Even though the length of incentive trips is generally not increasing, the number of programmes decreasing in size and duration has steadily dropped. The involvement of Procurement professionals in the buying of incentive travel: 52 percent of respondents did not expect this to change 32 percent expected it to increase moderately 12 percent expected it to increase significa More emphasis on ROI and work elements in IT

24 Incentive Travel Destination trends for the coming year

25 Europe Difficult to generalise Success in meetings and events follows economic performance: 92% of the Top 50 agencies in the UK are forecasting growth. Infrastructural investments: e.g. ICE Krakow New convention bureaus: e.g. Costa Brava Centre CB, Italia CB Booming demand for meetings facilities in first-tier cities rate increases

26 The US Positive mood in the meetings industry Lead-times for large meetings getting slightly longer: from 2.4 to 2.6 years Venue rates in the US have returned close to the previous record levels of It is a now sellers market in almost all destinations, especially in high-demand cities such as New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami and San Francisco

27 The US 42% of respondents (up from 39% in last year s PCMA survey) reported that they would be holding meetings outside the US Survey 2013 Survey Canada 82 percent 70 percent Western Europe 44 percent 36 percent United Kingdom 42 percent 34 percent Asia 42 percent 38 percent Eastern Europe 39 percent 25 percent Mexico 35 percent 28 percent Caribbean and Bermuda 34 percent 27 percent South America 28 percent 25 percent Australia / Pacific Rim 28 percent 21 percent Africa 20 percent 13 percent

28 Asia A growing source of demand and competition for established destinations In China, price has become much more important as a factor taken into account by buyers when choosing destinations and venues The Chinese government s austerity drive, has had an impact on the market for government meetings But there is stronger potential in the corporate and association meetings segments.

29 Asia With China s rapidly ageing population, there are more medical and academic congresses Plans for new convention bureaus, e.g. Hangzhou New infrastructure for the conference industry, e.g. the MICE Cluster in Seoul

30 Middle East / Africa A robust intra-regional market for ME meetings, with Dubai emerging as the GCC country most widely chosen by meeting planners ME planners are also using destinations well beyond their own region. Just under 70 percent of respondents reported that they had used European destinations for their events in the past 2 years France, Spain, Austria, Italy and Turkey.

31 Middle East / Africa Expansion of meetings facilities continued this year in the Middle East / Africa region. 628 new hotels under contract, totalling 147,454 rooms Nigeria s first dedicated international convention centre, the Calabar International Convention Centre.

32 Outlook for 2015

33 Outlook for 2015 Forecasters are practically unanimous in their predictions that 2015 will witness continuing growth in meetings, events and business travel generally Advito predicts that in some world regions the US and parts of Europe there will be more of a sellers market, thanks to growing demand and little new supply. Longer lead times. But more compliance and Procurement involvement

34 Outlook for 2015 GBTA Foundation Carlson Wagonlit Travel Global Travel Price Outlook makes the following predictions: Asia Pacific Europe, Middle East and Africa Latin America Modest attendee cost and group size increases Group sizes remaining flat, and slightly lower attendee costs The highest expected per-attendee cost Increases, and moderately increasing demand (due to high inflation) North America Modest increases in per-attendee spending and group size

35 Risk factors: Outlook for 2015 The Russia / Ukraine crisis and conflict in Syria Eurozone deflation could provoke another recession Local government and corporate debt in China could result in a hard landing for the Chinese economy, with consequences for the whole world The Ebola virus outbreak might extend its reach and have an impact of international travel.

36 The way ahead

37 The way ahead Resilience the ability to remain strong and successful in the face of challenges Dynamism energy, and a strong desire to progress through vigorous activity.

38 We d like to thank our kind sponsors! Official AV Partner Knowledge video partner Post show survey Online certification portal CEU verification Organised by The EIBTM and IBTM trademarks are owned and protected by Elsevier Properties SA and Reed Exhibitions Limited uses such trademark under licence. Hosted Buyer is a registered trademark of Reed Exhibitions Limited. Reed Travel Exhibitions is a registered trademark of Reed Elsevier Group Plc. Reed Travel Exhibitions is a registered trademark of Reed Elsevier Group Plc.

39 THANK YOU Rob Davidson