Forecast for International Travel to the United States

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1 Forecast for International Travel to the United States Presented by: JULIE HEIZER National Travel and Tourism Office International Trade Administration U.S. Department of Commerce February

2 U.S. Department of Commerce Agencies National Oceanic & Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) International Trade Administration (ITA) >> National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) U.S. Census Bureau Bureau Economic Analysis (BEA) Patent & Trademarks (PTO) National Institute of Standards & Technology NIST 2

3 Impact of Travel on U.S. Economy (2012) Total Tourism Sales: Direct tourism sales: Indirect tourism sales: $1.46 trillion $865.4 billion $591.2 billion Total Tourism Employment: 7.8 million Direct employment: Indirect tourism employment: 5.6 million 2.2 million Tourism Percentage of GDP: 2.8% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries & Bureau of Economic Analysis 3

4 U.S. Travel & Tourism Employment (2012) Travel and tourism industries support 7.8 million American jobs 71% of all travel and tourism employment is accounted for by these four sectors: Food Services & Drinking Places 2.2 million employees (28%) Traveler Accommodations 1.8 million employees (23%) Air Transportation Services 781,000 employees (10%) Shopping (Retail) 750,000 employees (10%) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries & Bureau of Economic Analysis 4

5 Why is International Travel Important to the United States? International travel & tourism accounts for 4% of total U.S. travelers, but 17% of, where it counts more, spending, jobs, wages and travel taxes. Federal tax accounts for 50% of all federal, state, and local taxes generated by the travel and tourism industry. 20% 15% 17% 10% 5% 0% 4% Total Travelers Total Spending, Employment, Payroll, Taxes 5

6 Travel & Tourism As a Leading Export (2012) Travel & Tourism exports $165.6 billion Percentage of total exports 7% Percentage of service exports 25% Travel trade surplus $47.5 billion Employment from tourism exports 1.2 million 6

7 U.S. Visitors & Spending ( ) Visitor spending (receipts) closely mirrors visitor volume. Spending $165.6 billion in 2012, while visitor volume was 66.7 million. millions of visitors $billions in spending Spending Visitors Sources: Department of Commerce, National Travel & Tourism Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Statistics Canada; Banco de Mexico. 7

8 International Travelers to the U.S. ( ) millions of visitors Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries; Banco de Mexico/ Secretaria de Turismo (Mexico); Statistics Canada Note: All arrivals are for one or more nights * Overseas includes all countries except Canada and Mexico. 8

9 Overseas Visitors to Go West States (Main Destinations) 29.8m 6.6m 23% 9

10 Go West Destinations from Overseas Markets (2012) Destination Main (main + secondary) Ratio Go West Total 6,577,300 12,916, Alaska 29,800 89, Arizona 119, , California 3,898,700 6,011, Colorado 238, , Idaho 29,800 29, Montana 29,800 29, Nevada 744,000 2,767, New Mexico 29,800 89, Oregon 89, , South Dakota 29,800 29, Texas 1,011,900 1,339, Utah 89, , Washington 208, , Wyoming 29, ,

11 Go West Destinations from International Regions Destination Overseas ( 12) Canada ( 11) Mexico-Air Go West Total 12,916,400 9,016,000 1,328,000 Alaska 89, ,000 Arizona* 803, ,000 42,000 California* 6,011,700 1,476, ,000 Colorado* 446, ,000 Idaho 29, ,000 Montana 29, ,000 Nevada* 2,767,800 1,481, ,000 New Mexico 89, ,000 Oregon 208, ,000 South Dakota 29, ,000 Texas* 1,339, , ,000 Utah* 476, ,000 Washington* 446,400 2,587,000 Wyoming 148, ,000 11

12 Go West Destinations from Overseas Regions (2012) Destination Europe Asia So. Am * Go West Total 5,890,000 3,790,000 1,696,000 Alaska 25,000 33,000 na Arizona 537, ,000 26,000 California 2,421,000 2,169, ,000 Colorado 237,000 75,000 44,000 Idaho 12,000 17,000 na Montana 25,000 8,000 na Nevada 1,335, , ,000 New Mexico 62,000 8,000 na Oregon 75,000 66,000 22,000 South Dakota 25,000 17,000 na Texas 537, , ,000 Utah 337,000 66,000 22,000 Washington 175, ,000 31,000 Wyoming 87,000 41,

13 Who were the top traveler volume game changers in 2012? (among the top 40 origin markets) Volume rank Country of Residence Arrivals Change % Change 1 Canada 22,697,000 1,360,000 6% 2 Mexico 14,119, ,000 4% 4 Japan 3,698, ,504 14% 7 China 1,474, ,003 35% 6 Brazil 1,791, ,824 19% 13 Venezuela 674, ,674 20% 9 Korea 1,251, ,216 9% 16 Colombia 602, ,524 21% 14 Argentina 614, ,246 20% 10 Australia 1,122,180 84,328 8% 12 India 724,433 60,968 9% 5 Germany 1,875,952 52,155 3% 35 Saudi Arabia 182,225 49,305 37% 26 Russia 259,699 37,811 17% 31 Peru 190,205 18,335 11% 32 Chile 187,603 16,144 9% 27 Dominican Republic 244,417 14,229 6% 24 Norway 262,822 13,655 5% 40 Trinidad and Tobago 144,535 11,604 9% 36 Costa Rica 179,755 11,033 7% 13

14 Who contributed to the largest declines in traveler volume in 2012? (among the top 40 origin markets) Volume rank Country of Residence Arrivals Change % Change 15 Spain 607,273-92,910-13% 3 United Kingdom 3,763,381-71,919-2% 11 Italy 831,343-60,228-7% 8 France 1,455,720-48,462-3% 20 Ireland 331,850-15,029-4% 17 Netherlands 591,746-9,267-2% 33 New Zealand 185,706-3,268-2% 23 Denmark 271,363-3,057-1% 29 Ecuador 209,828-1,082-1% 22 Taiwan Province of China 290, % 18 Switzerland 476, % 25 Belgium 260, % 21 Israel 303, % 28 Bahamas, the 224,997 2,256 1% 39 Singapore 162,077 2,775 2% 19 Sweden 442,013 3,041 1% 34 Austria 183,276 3,794 2% 38 Jamaica 166,984 7,749 5% 37 Philippines 176,218 9,389 6% 30 Guatemala 194,373 10,702 6% 14

15 Global Travel Forecasts 15

16 United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO Spring 2012) Forecasts for world and world regions only. Includes INbound and OUTbound forecasts! Methodology based on changes in GDP and transport costs. 1) assumes similar GDP growth trends as in the past; 2) assumes air transport costs will cease declining in real terms: 3) land transport costs to increase faster than air. 16

17 UNWTO 2030 Forecast Arrivals growth by year Arrivals > travelers, reflecting multiple counting across multiple country visits on a trip. Growth rates decelerate through 2030 reflecting 1) an ever-growing base, 2) assumption of increasing transport costs. = 43 million new travelers per year, on average to reach 1.8 billion arrivals by billion if transport costs and GDP assumptions are worse. 17

18 UNWTO 2030 Forecast Destination Growth...Asia / Pacific and Europe. Growth TO these regions mostly reflects... 18

19 UNWTO 2030 Forecast Outbound Growth...growth FROM these regions, due to 1) population increases, 2) living standard increases, and 3) high intra-regional travel incidence. Europe??? IMF forecasts population growth, GDP growth, continued high intraregional travel. 19

20 UNWTO 2030 Forecast What Does It Mean? International travel has a bright future, even under the darkest assumptions. Nearly all non-asian countries will continue to lose share of global arrivals... 20

21 World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) As the private sector industry representative, focuses on the bottom line of travel GDP and jobs. By % increase in travel real GDP value, 24% in employment, and 24 million net increase in travel employment. Increases in GDP and employment shares of total world GDP and employment. Thus, importance of travel as an industry continues to grow. 21

22 Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA August 2013) Forecasts for 40 PATA countries released in Aug. Includes INbound and OUTbound forecasts! PATA forecast for USA AAGR All 200 markets 1.4% China 17.6% Brazil 4.7% Australia 3.2% Mexico 1.0% Germany 0.7% Canada 0.0% U.K. -0.2% Japan -0.2% 22

23 U.S. Travel Association s Travel Forecast (July 2013) 23

24 The Current NTTO International Travel Forecast 24

25 The NTTO Methodology Jellybeans-in-a-Jar Approach 25

26 For each of 40 countries Total outbound: level, change, record Volume to USA: level, change, record USA share Outbound spending: level, change, record Spending in USA: level, change, record USA share Currency exchange rate Real GDP change GDP/capita Inflation rate Unemployment rate Population Government Debt Monthly volume trends Brand USA marketing effort Export % of GDP Air seat capacity trends And more 26

27 For each of 40 countries Qualitative review of positives and negatives from numerous sources. 27

28 For each of 40 countries Graphical review of relationships among variables 28

29 btw here s the relationship between change in real GDP and travel to the USA for a current year or next year. 29

30 Forecast for International Travel to the United States 30

31 Forecasting Sources Tourism UN WTO WTTC PATA IMF DOC/NTTO Aviation IATA FAA Aircraft Manufacturers Capacity Analysts 31

32 International Visitors to the U.S. and Projections ( ) Arrivals in Millions Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, National Travel & Tourism Office; Secretaria de Turismo (Mexico); Statistics Canada -- November 2013 forecast 32

33 Rank Visitor % % % Total % Order Origin Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Change Change Change Change Change CAGR 2012 Country /11 13/12 14/13 18/12 18/12 18/12 Grand Total 66,740 68,994 71,778 83, % 3.4% 4.0% 17, % 3.9% Overseas 29,761 31,477 33,135 40, % 5.8% 5.3% 10, % 5.3% 1 Canada 22,697 23,378 24,079 27, % 3% 3% 4, % 3.3% 2 Mexico 14,282 14,139 14,564 15, % -1% 3% 1, % 1.7% 3 United Kingdom 3,763 3,726 3,763 4, % -1% 1% % 2.2% 4 Japan 3,698 3,772 3,847 4, % 2% 2% % 1.5% 5 Germany 1,876 1,895 1,970 2, % 1% 4% % 1.5% 6 Brazil 1,791 2,096 2,242 3, % 17% 7% 1, % 9.3% 7 China 1,474 1,858 2,304 4, % 26% 24% 3, % 21.3% 8 France 1,456 1,441 1,513 1, % -1% 5% % 2.2% 9 Korea 1,251 1,327 1,406 1, % 6% 6% % 6.2% 10 Australia 1,122 1,190 1,249 1, % 6% 5% % 4.8% 11 Italy % 2% -1% % 1.3% 12 India , % 10% 8% % 7.2% 13 Venezuela , % 22% 5% % 7.7% 14 Argentina , % 20% 10% % 10.1% 15 Spain % 0% -1% % 1.0% 16 Colombia , % 22% 9% % 8.8% 17 Netherlands % -1% 0% % 1.2% 18 Switzerland % 2% 2% % 2.0% 19 Sweden % 1% 4% % 2.7% 20 Ireland % 5% 4% % 4.5%

34 Key Points from the Forecast 2012 performance exceeded expectations (Can/Mex/O-S); through June 2013 we are within 2% points of the annual forecast. Of the top 20, 14 markets are performing slightly better than forecasted 17 of the top 20 are all within 1-3 percentage points of our annual forecast India, Colombia, & Venezuela are the markets performing 4-8% better than forecasted The origin country rankings continue to shift, by China jumped up 4 slots to top overseas market Korea, India, Argentina, and Colombia will move up in the rankings Outside the top 20, The Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia are rising fast. Fastest growers are China and South America (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela) But, largest contributors to growth in travelers are Canada, China, Mexico, Brazil, and U.K. These five are 2/3 of volume growth. 34

35 So, how are we doing? 35

36 International Travel s Impact on Lodging Metrics +3.0% Smith Travel Research 2012 change in U.S. hotel/motel room demand 20.5% +12% U.S. Dept. of Commerce/BEA industry demand tables Estimate for share of lodging industry demand by international travelers. NTTO Survey of International Air Travelers Combined change in international traveler room demand [1) change in travelers; 2) change in hotel/motel use; 3) change in hotel / motel stay length] +2.4% = 20.5% x 12%. 2.4% / 3.0% = 80%. 1.5 ppr? = 80% / 1.5ppr, or approximately 50% of growth 36

37 Top Destinations visited by Overseas Travelers to the U.S. in Destination Destination Survey of International Estimated Estimated Percent Percent Air Travelers Visitation Visitation Change Change U.S. Destinations Visited (000) (000) (I-94 Overseas Arrivals) 27,883 29,761 6% 7% New York 9,508 9,315 10% -2% New York City-WP-Wayne 9,285 9,107 10% -2% Florida 5,688 6,577-2% 16% California 6,134 6,012 9% -2% Miami 2,956 3,482-5% 18% Los Angeles-Long Beach 3,653 3,393 9% -7% Orlando 2,788 3,184 3% 14% Hawaiian Islands 2,286 2,827 7% 24% San Francisco 2,872 2,798 9% -3% Nevada 2,872 2,768 15% -4% Las Vegas 2,788 2,708 15% -3% Oahu/Honolulu 1,785 2,232 9% 25% Washington, DC 1,812 1,756 4% -3% Illinois 1,255 1,399 6% 11% Guam 1,227 1,399-7% 14% 37

38 Volume & Change in First Time Travel to the U.S. Between 2011 & 2012 for Top Destinations st-Time 1st-Time 1st time 1st time TABLE 24 - Q14a. U.S. Visitor Visitor % change % change Destinations Visited (1) (%) (000) (000) 11/10 12/11 Total Overseas First Time Visitors 7,752 6,905 19% -11% New York 3,496 2,776 15% -21% New York City 3,434 2,721 14% -21% California 1,954 1,609 23% -18% Florida 1,357 1,250 25% -8% Los Angeles 1,318 1,084 25% -18% Nevada 1, % -14% Las Vegas 1, % -15% San Francisco 1, % -18% Hawaiian Islands % 9% Orlando % -8% Miami % -11% Oahu/Honolulu % 5% Guam % 14% DC Metro Area % -25% Massachusetts % -20% 38

39 Volume & Change for Repeat Visitors to the U.S. in 2011 & 2012 for Top Destinations Repeat Repeat TABLE 24 - Q14a. U.S. Visitor Visitor % change % change Destinations Visited (1) (%) (000) (000) 11/10 12/11 Total Overseas Repeat Visitors 20,132 22,856 1% 14% New York 6,040 6,445 8% 7% New York City 5,899 6,308 7% 7% Florida 4,228 5,371-11% 27% California 4,389 4,503 3% 3% Miami 2,235 2,857-10% 28% Orlando 1,892 2,423-10% 28% Los Angeles 2,396 2,331-1% -3% San Francisco 1,953 2,057 2% 5% Hawaiian Islands 1,389 1,943-11% 40% Nevada 1,812 1,920 9% 6% Las Vegas 1,751 1,851 9% 6% Oahu/Honolulu 1,148 1,577-11% 37% DC Metro Area 1,188 1,280 1% 8% Illinois 966 1,189 1% 23% Texas 1,027 1,189 18% 16% 39

40 Volume & Change for Vacation Travelers to the U.S. in 2011 & 2012 for Top Destinations Leisure Leisure TABLE 24 - Q14a. U.S. (VAC.) (VAC.) % change % change Destinations Visited (1) (%) (000) (000) 11/10 12/11 TOTAL Overseas Leisure Travelers % 6% New York 7,087 6,850 9% -3% New York City 6,993 6,750 9% -3% Florida 4,486 5,332-1% 19% California 4,053 3,754 9% -7% Orlando 2,469 2,916 1% 18% Miami 2,281 2,716-2% 19% Hawaiian Islands 2,055 2,496 9% 21% Los Angeles 2,677 2,376 9% -11% Nevada 2,450 2,317 12% -5% Las Vegas 2,394 2,257 11% -6% San Francisco 2,130 2,057 11% -3% Oahu/Honolulu 1,640 2,017 9% 23% Guam 1,169 1,258-3% 8% DC Metro Area 1,282 1,158 10% -10% Massachusetts % -3% 40

41 Volume & Change for Business Travelers to the U.S. in 2011 and 2012 for Top Destinations TABLE 24 - Q14a. U.S. Business Business % change % change Destinations Visited (1) (%) (000) (000) 11/10 12/11 All Overseas Business Travelers 5,521 4,672 4% -15% New York 1,645 1,173 12% -29% California 1,435 1,173 4% -18% New York City 1,573 1,135 11% -28% Florida % 8% Los Angeles % -18% Miami % 17% Texas % -8% San Francisco % -26% Illinois % -16% Chicago % -15% Nevada % -29% DC Metro Area % -35% Houston % -4% Pennsylvania % -15% Las Vegas % -30% 41

42 Key Points Today Travel and tourism industry to remain a dominant and growing factor in the global economy, often a leader in economic output and employment growth even under lessthan-rosy assumptions. The UNWTO expects traveler volume growth to average 3.3% per year through Asia will lead in both volume from and to a region; non-asia global market shares continue to decline. Traveler volume growth to the USA to average 3.9% from 2012 through Volume to grow from 67 million in 2012 to 84 million by Growth rates led by China, Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, and Venezuela. Growth volume led by Canada, China, Mexico, Brazil, and the United Kingdom. These five countries will account for two-thirds of all visitor volume growth. Within the U.S. the traveler characteristics of our visitors is changing and destinations and travel businesses need to track these changes and adjust their approach to the different countries of interest to them to stay ahead of these changes. International travel to the USA continues to be the driving force for the growth in the U.S. travel industry; such as recent growth in hotel room demand would have been perhaps half as much in 2012 without international travel. Likely the same for

43 The Quickest Way to U.S. International Tourism Information: Includes International Travel Research Online Order, read, download & print the latest statistics on international travel to and from the U.S. All of the latest summary tables highlighting specific tourism trends More than 30 plus market and regional profiles available Forecast of international travelers to the U.S. through 2018 Information on NTTO s nine ongoing market analysis (research) programs Updated monthly statistics on arrivals and departures Late-breaking TI News announcements and information releases Links and information on the Commerce, Commercial Service Travel & Tourism Team in the USA & abroad Links to other organizations in the travel industry Sign up for TINews, NTTO s FREE news service, for the latest in tourism industry news and program updates 43

44 Thank You! Questions? JULIE HEIZER National Travel and Tourism Office International Trade Administration U.S. Department of Commerce Phone:

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