Trade: Behind the Headlines The Public s View

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1 Trade: Behind the Headlines The Public s View Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes WTO, Geneva, September 26, 2017

2 THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT HAS IMPROVED October 3,

3 Views of National Economies Vary Widely The current economic situation in our country is good Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. Q5. October 3,

4 Many Feel Better About Their National Economies The current economic situation in our country is good Note: Only double digit changes shown. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey Change % Poland Russia Indonesia Ghana Turkey U.S Senegal Philippines Israel Germany Spain Mexico South Africa Argentina Nigeria

5 80% In EU, Japan, U.S., Views of Economy Have Recovered to Pre-Financial Crisis Levels The current economic situation in our country is good U.S. 51 EU 41 Japan Note: EU median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes survey. Q5. October 3,

6 BUT DON T UNDERESTIMATE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE CHANGING SOCIAL CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION October 3,

7 Americans Have Experienced Dramatic Change in One Lifetime % % Non-white Foreign-born White, no college education , living with parents Births to unmarried women Women in the workforce Share of wealth owned by top 1% Source: Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen & Thomas analysis based on data from U.S. Census Bureau, Pew Research Center, U.S. Dept. of Labor and T. Piketty. October 3,

8 PUBLICS SUPPORT GLOBALIZATION IN PRINCIPLE October 3,

9 People Around the World Favor International Trade and Business Ties In general, trade and business ties between our country and other countries around the world is a good thing Europe 91% Africa 90 Asia-Pacific 88 Middle East 83 Latin America 80 U.S. 87 Note: Percentages represent regional medians. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. 9

10 But If Costs and Benefits Are Noted, Support Goes Down Which statement comes closer to your view about our country s involvement in the global economy? Netherlands Sweden Germany Kenya Nigeria Australia Canada UK China Japan Hungary Spain India France Poland South Africa Italy U.S. Greece Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. Bad because it lowers wages and costs jobs in our country 25% Good because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth 71%

11 THOSE WHO HAVE PROSPERED ARE PARTICULARLY UPBEAT ABOUT GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION October 3,

12 Chinese Have Positive View of Global Economic Engagement Which statement comes closer to your view about China s involvement in the global economy? It is bad because it lowers wages and costs jobs 23% Neither (VOL) 6% Don't know 11% It is good because it provides China with new markets and opportunities for growth 60% Involvement in the global economy is a good thing for China because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth TOTAL 60% Urban 63 Rural 55 Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3,

13 Roughly Half of Indians Think India s Involvement in the Global Economy Is a Good Thing Which statement comes closer to your view about India s involvement in the global economy? Neither (VOL) It s bad because it lowers wages, costs jobs 25% 3% Don t know 20% It s good because it provides India with new markets, opportunities for growth 52% Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3,

14 AFRICANS SOMEWHAT DIVIDED ON ECONOMIC INTEGRATION October 3,

15 Kenyans, Nigerians Quite Positive on the Benefits of Global Economic Involvement; South Africans Split Which statement comes closer to your view about our country s involvement in the global economy? It is bad because it lowers wages and costs jobs It is good because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth Kenya 25% 70% Nigeria South Africa Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. 15

16 IN EUROPE, IT DEPENDS WHO YOU ASK October 3,

17 Widely Differing European Views on Economic Engagement Our country s involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth Netherlands Sweden Germany 72% UK 64 Hungary Spain France Poland Italy 44 Greece 35 Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3,

18 Those Partial to Populist Parties Are More Negative on Global Economic Engagement Our country s involvement in the global economy is a bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs Among those with a favorable view of Among those with an unfavorable view of French National Front 43% 53% Dutch Party for Freedom Swedish Democrats Alternative for Germany UK Independence Party Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3,

19 One Reason: Many Doubt the Benefits of Trade and FDI Trade is good Trade increases wages Trade creates jobs October 3, Trade lowers prices Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good Foreign companies building factories in our country is good % % % % % % Spain Germany UK Greece Poland France Italy Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes Survey.

20 JAPANESE BACK ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN PRINCIPLE BUT DOUBT ITS BENEFITS October 3,

21 Majority Say Global Economic Engagement is a Good Thing, But Women and Older People Are Less Positive Involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides Japan with new markets and opportunities for growth Total 58% Men 63 Women Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3,

22 Japanese Are the Least Enthusiastic in Asia-Pacific About Globalization s Benefits Trade is good Trade increases wages Trade creates jobs Trade lowers prices Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good Foreign companies building factories in our country is good % % % % % % Vietnam Malaysia Chile Peru Mexico Japan Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3,

23 AMERICAN VIEWS ON TRADE ARE PARTISAN AND CHANGING Sept. 18,

24 In Principle Americans Favor Free Trade Deals Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a for the United States 80% Good thing Bad thing Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, October 3,

25 Older White Men Are the Most Negative on Free Trade Deals Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a for the United States Good thing Bad thing % % TOTAL Population White men Note: Whites include only those who are not Hispanic. Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, October 3,

26 All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic October 3,

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