Greater Golden Horseshoe Transportation Plan

Transcription

1 Greater Golden Horseshoe Transportation Plan Socio-Economic Profile December 2017 PREPARED BY Urban Strategies Inc. and HDR for the Ministry of Transportation

2 Prepared by Urban Strategies Inc. and HDR for the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) in support of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) Transportation Plan. The Ontario Ministry of Transportation is developing a long-term and comprehensive transportation plan for the GGH. A functioning, efficient, and well-planned transportation system is vital to keep the population and economy of the GGH moving. To support the development of the GGH transportation plan, it is important to build an understanding of the region, its people and economy, and their changing needs. This working paper provides a socio-economic profile of the GGH as a foundational input to the GGH transportation plan.

3 Table of Contents Executive Summary Introduction 1 Planning & Policy Framework 2 The GGH Today 6 Trends and Forecasts 11 People 11 Population 11 Health and Active Living 16 Economy 18 Employment 18 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 22 Industrial Structure 23 Automation 26 Online and On Demand Economy 27 Land Use 28 Urban Intensification and Housing Preferences 28 Employment Location 29 Future Outlooks 34 Appendix 40 Note on the Study Area 40 Image Sources 41

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5 Introduction Understanding the current and evolving socio-economic context of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) is essential to planning for its future transportation system. The population and economy of the GGH will be undergoing significant change over the coming decades, which will impact where people live, where they work, and where and how they access goods and services. This working paper provides a socio-economic profile of the GGH as a foundational input to the GGH Transportation Plan. The profile starts by describing the GGH today - its geographic area, population, and place within the larger context of both the Ontario and Canadian economies. The data makes clear the area s increasing importance as an economic engine for the province and country as a whole. To plan for the future prosperity of the GGH is to plan for the future prosperity of Ontario and Canada. The next section, Trends and Forecasts, describes trends in population, economy, and land use in the GGH. The region has seen and will continue to see considerable population growth, primarily through immigration. However, the distribution of growth throughout the region will change over time, with consequent impacts on transportation planning. The demographic profile of the GGH s population is also changing: the population is aging, and mobility issues affecting people s transportation needs are increasing. The economy is also in transition in response to global economic restructuring, and new developments such as automation and the sharing economy. The nature of work is changing, and the places where the jobs of the future will be located will be different than in the past. The final section of the document, Future Outlooks, analyzes the trends that have been presented to draw out major themes and their relevance to the GGH Transportation Plan. In addition to Statistics Canada data, 1 a number of policy documents were reviewed, and form the basis of this profile. These include: Provincial Policy Statement, 2014; The Big Move and Big Move Baseline Monitoring Report; Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe 2017, Greenbelt Plan, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, and Niagara Escarpment Plan; Performance Indicators for the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006; Our Region, Our Community, Our Home; and the Official Plans of GGH municipalities. Relevant research papers, essays, and reports were also reviewed. This profile, along with the environmental and transportation profiles, will inform several components of the GGH Transportation Plan going forward, including the horizon scan, goals and objectives, system analysis, and long-term vision. INTRODUCTION 1 At the time of publication, 2016 Census data had yet to be released in full by Statistics Canada SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 1

6 Planning & Policy Framework The GGH is a large, vibrant, and quickly-growing city-region. It contains the largest Canadian city (the City of Toronto), as well as several other large cities, smaller cities, suburban areas, rural communities, and agricultural areas. In total, there are 110 municipalities in the GGH, each defined by the Municipal Act as either an upper-, lower-, or single-tier municipality. This distinction is an important one for the division, or sharing, of authority related to the provision of services. Figure 1. Map of the Greater Golden Horseshoe 2 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

7 In single-tier municipalities, services are delivered by a single governing body with a single Official Plan. With two-tier municipal structures, the Municipal Act provides specific rules for the division of powers between upperand lower-tier municipalities. Upper-tier municipalities are commonly referred to as counties (which are largely rural), or as regions. Regions were created in the 1970s by special legislation to address the emerging demands of rapidly growing urban centres. Importantly, power is divided differently between regions and counties. For example, upper-tier services provided by regional municipalities often include transportation infrastructure such as arterial roads and public transit, and servicing such as sewer and water systems, and waste disposal. Upper-tier services provided by counties often only include arterial roads, and it is the lower-tier municipalities which are usually responsible for local roads and garbage collection. Since the 1990s, provincial and municipal policies have required all municipalities to plan for more compact, walkable, transit-supportive, and complete communities, while using existing infrastructure in an efficient and costeffective way. Whereas these policies provide direction on how to grow, the Growth Plan directs where, and how much, growth should be accommodated across the region. This distribution of growth provides the foundation for all the population, employment, and growth forecasts in this report. Provincial Policy Statement The Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) is issued under Section 3 of the Planning Act and provides direction on matters of provincial interest in relation to land use planning, transportation and development. All municipal decisions affecting land use planning matters shall be consistent with the PPS. The PPS includes policies pertaining to the efficient use and management of land and infrastructure; protection of the natural environment and resources; and employment and residential development. The PPS provides direction for land use and transportation planning through numerous policies. For example, it directs settlement areas to be transit supportive where transit is planned, exists, or may be developed. It supports goods movement through the protection of transportation and infrastructure corridors. It also encourages public service facilities to be co-located in community hubs in order to support access by transit and active transportation. PLANNING & POLICY FRAMEWORK SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 3

8 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2017) Growth Plan Greenbelt Plan (2017) The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2017), established under the Places to Grow Act (2005), sets the regional vision to which all transportation plans need to respond. The Growth Plan establishes a regional growth structure comprising 25 urban growth centres (UGC), built-boundary, and designated greenfield areas to reduce sprawl; protect valuable natural and agricultural resources; and plan for more complete, transit-supportive, and compact communities. Growth Plan policies require municipalities to direct growth to settlement areas and prioritize intensification, with a focus on strategic growth areas such as urban growth centres, major transit station areas, and brownfield and greyfield sites. The population forecasts in the Growth Plan were developed using a method that applies demographic assumptions (e.g. birth and death rates) to each cohort (e.g. age groupings in five-year intervals), based on age and gender. This is a widely accepted methodology used in demographic forecasting, and is also used by the Ministry of Finance in its Population Projections. Additionally, the Growth Plan forecasts take into account Growth Plan policies and the government s objectives in shaping the region (including intensification targets, building complete communities, and directing growth to strategic growth areas). The Growth Plan divides the region into the Inner Ring and Outer Ring. The Inner Ring is the geographic area consisting of the cities of Toronto and Hamilton, and the Regions of Halton, Peel, York, and Durham. The Outer Ring includes the cities of Barrie, Brantford, Guelph, Kawartha Lakes, Orillia, and Peterborough; the Counties of Brant, Dufferin, Haldimand, Northumberland, Simcoe, and Wellington; and the Regions of Niagara and Waterloo. Generally speaking, the Inner Ring is experiencing the most significant growth pressures as it includes many of the region s fastest growing, and most urbanized municipalities. Greenbelt Plan The Greenbelt Plan, established under the Greenbelt Act (2005), plays a critical role in protecting the agricultural land base and key ecological features and functions in the region. It restricts the use of land and resources within the greenbelt - a more than 2 million acre area surrounding much of the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The Greenbelt Area includes over 800,000 acres of land protected by the Niagara Escarpment Plan and the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, and over 1.2 million acres of land known as Protected Countryside and Urban River Valley established by the overarching Greenbelt Plan. All land use planning decisions made under the Planning Act must conform to the Greenbelt Plan. Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (2017) Niagara Escarpment Plan and Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan Niagara Escarpment Plan (2017) The purpose of the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (ORMCP) and the Niagara Escarpment Plan (NEP) is to manage growth, curb sprawl, build complete communities, and protect the natural environment in the GGH. The ORMCP specifically deals with the Oak Ridges Moraine, a natural heritage landform that stretches 160 kilometres across the GGH from the Trent River in the east to the Niagara Escarpment in the west, delivering critical ecological and hydrological functions - such as groundwater resources and recharge areas - to the region. The NEP deals with the Niagara Escarpment, a natural heritage landform that stretches across the western portion of the GGH. All land use planning decisions made under the Planning Act must conform to the ORMCP and not conflict with the NEP. 4 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

9 the world will have implemented or are scheduled to put a price on carbon. they are rewarded with a credit. If a company emits too much, they need to invest in credits from other companies. Climate Change Strategy The 2015 Climate Change Strategy aims to bring greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 and to build a low-carbon economy. Transportationrelated policies include encouraging as many existing drivers as possible to switch to transit, cycling, and walking; developing new communities alongside transit, with transit-supportive densities; helping households shift to ultra-low and zero-emission vehicles; reducing emissions from goods movement; integrating transit planning and land use planning to maximize GHG reductions; and integrating climate change adaptation considerations into infrastructure decision-making. #ONclimate ONTARIO S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY #ONclimate lowered over time to ensure emissions continue to fall. Ontario s program will cover a wide variety of sectors, including gasoline and natural gas distributors. The initial cap in 2017 would be set to align with the best estimate of emissions in that year, declining at a rate to help ensure the province achieves its 2020 emissions reduction target. This will encourage companies to find new ways to reduce their carbon footprint. It will foster innovation as clean technology becomes more in demand, and as researchers, entrepreneurs and start-ups rise to How Does Cap and Trade Work? Cap and Trade: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Pollution The cap sets a maximum limit on the amount of greenhouse gas pollution industry can produce. Over time, the cap is lowered, which means less greenhouse gas pollution and improved air quality. Municipal Official Plans Under Section 16 of the Planning Act, individual municipalities are responsible for the preparation of Official Plans, which articulate general planning visions, goals, objectives, and policies to guide future land use and the effects on the social, economic, and natural environments of the municipality. Official Plans for upper-tier municipalities deal with broad planning issues that affect more than one municipality. All lower-tier Official Plans and zoning by-laws must conform to the upper-tier plan. In addition to setting forward a vision for the municipality, an Official Plan often deals with issues related to housing, transportation, employment, built form, natural heritage, infrastructure, and policy implementation. Importantly, all Official Plans must implement higher level provincial policies, including the PPS and provincial plans. Municipalities are required to amend their Official Plans to conform with, or to not conflict with the policies of applicable provincial plans applying to the GGH, including the Growth Plan and Greenbelt Plan. For example, the Growth Plan requires municipalities to include the Growth Plan forecasts, updated every five years, in their Official Plans, as the basis for planning and managing growth. The five-year time frame for updating the forecasts helps to ensure a consistent and coordinated approach to planning for infrastructure and development across the region, and for municipalities to plan for long-term growth in their communities. PLANNING & POLICY FRAMEWORK the challenge. Cap and Trade: YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 As of August 2015, 39 national and 23 subnational jurisdictions around Rewarding Innovation If a company does not emit as much as their cap, Over time, a cap and trade system can accumulate proceeds as emitters purchase allowances from the government through, for example, auctions. Specifics on how Ontario s cap and trade proceeds will be used are still being worked out. Proceeds will be reinvested in a transparent way back into projects that reduce greenhouse gas pollution and help businesses transition to a low-carbon economy. Projects may include helping families consume less energy through more energy-efficient appliances or housing, building more public #ONclimate Reaching 37 Per Cent by 2030 By 2030, we envision that Ontario will be building on existing networks and programs to enhance scientific knowledge, supporting the development and deployment of new low-carbon technologies and solutions, and encouraging the growth of clean-tech companies. Cap and Trade: Protecting Ontario for Future Generations The money raised will be reinvested back into projects that reduce greenhouse gas pollution like public transit, and energy retrofits. Reducing Greenhouse Gas pollution will help to protect the air we breathe, the water we drink and the health of our children and grandchildren The Toronto Stock Exchange and S&P Dow Jones have launched three new climate change indices for Canada designed to measure the performance of companies relative to their carbon footprint. A Prosperous Low-Carbon Economy with World-Leading Innovation, Science and Technology SECTION 1 We will have put in place financial mechanisms to help innovative start-ups and commercialize products that reduce emissions. We will have taken key steps towards being a global hub for climate science, low-carbon innovation and technology, and will have captured a significant share of the global clean-technology market. Ontario will focus on the following actions to achieve these goals. 1. Attract and retain investment and risk capital for low-carbon innovation. Our strategy supports the growth and strength of Ontario s low-carbon and clean-tech industries. We will provide local entrepreneurs access to capital to help start-ups grow and thrive. We will help bridge the gap between development and commer cialization of new technology, nurturing local innovation through all stages of development. According to the Conference Board of Canada, each $100 million invested in Ontario in climate-related technologies is estimated to generate a gain of $107 million in gross domestic product, and 1,400 new jobs. #ONclimate ONTARIO S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY 11 #ONclimate Ontario s Climate Change Strategy Adaptation and Risk Awareness Climate Change Adaptation and Government Decision- Making Alignment Climate Modelling and Risk Assessment Collaborative Approach to Assess Carbon Sequestration Climate Change and Agricultural Sector Initiatives Alignment A Resource-Efficient, High Productivity Society Zero Emission Vehicles Actions Goods Movement Actions Low Carbon Fuels Net-Zero-Energy Buildings Actions Create Incentive Programs Transportation and Land Use Planning Initiatives A Prosperous Low- Carbon Economy with World-Leading Innovation, Science and Technology Investment and Risk Capital Actions Research and Innovation Strategy Assist Businesses in their Low-Carbon Transition Build Green Infrastructure A High Productivity Low Carbon Economy and Society Government Collaboration and Leadership Climate Change Legislation Climate Change Integrated with Government Decision-Making and Infrastructure Planning Aboriginal Implementation Frameworks Carbon Neutral Government Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across Key Sectors Climate Change in Long-term Energy Plans Resource Recovery and Waste Reduction Framework Review of Policies and Programs that Incent Fossil Fuel Use and Technology #ONclimate The following pages provide an overview of each of these five sections. We are just five years away from reaching our 2020 target of 15 per cent below 1990 levels. This strategy offers a snapshot of where we expect to be in 2030 upon reaching our next target of 37 per cent below 1990 levels. Each section discusses the practical short and long-term actions we will take to get there. This strategy will be supported by a series of five-year action plans, the first of which will be released in ONTARIO S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY 13 #ONclimate Taking Responsibility, Making a Difference Our government is committed to a healthy and prosperous Ontario. It is our responsibility to be excellent stewards of the air, land and water entrusted to our care. Fighting climate change is part of that responsibility, and it s a responsibility we call upon everyone to share. Ontarians are already taking a stand. They re changing their habits. They re acting individually and collectively to conserve energy and reduce emissions. But so much more can be done. So let s do it. Let s work together to build this legacy of hope and optimism for our children and grandchildren. Let s work together to fight climate change, build a stronger Ontario, and make a difference to our future and the future of our planet. What Will Ontario Look Like in 2050? Renewable Low carbon Sustainable Sustainable energy homes forestry agriculture Clean Energy Ground Electric/ Electric charging/ source heat hydrogen/ hydrogen Hybrid/biogas Low carbon businesses pump Bicycles biofuel car fuelling station hydrogen bus and industries #ONclimate ONTARIO S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY 37 ONTARIO S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY 17 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 5

10 The GGH Today A growing and diverse region The total population of the GGH in 2015 was 9.5 million. 2 The GGH s age distribution is dominated by baby boomers and the baby boom echo. There is a smaller population under the age of 19 partly as a result of a historically low fertility rate, reaching 1.46 children per woman in The GGH region is one of great diversity, home to residents representing over 200 different ethnic groups. According to the 2011 Census, approximately 40% of the GGH s population is comprised of immigrants, totaling approximately 3.8 million people. While this proportion increased between 1996 and 2011, across the GGH as a whole it remained steady during the period between 2006 and However, the distribution of immigrant populations is not uniform across the region. The proportion of immigrants is largest in the municipalities of Peel (50%), Toronto (48%), and York (45%). Immigrant populations in Outer Ring municipalities represent smaller proportions. During the last decade there has been a major shift in immigrants countries of origin. Historically, the majority of immigrants arrived from Europe. However, from 2006 to 2011, all regions in the GGH experienced significant immigration originating from Asia; during this five-year period, approximately 67% of immigrants to the GGH arrived from Asian countries, whereas only 11% arrived from Europe. The majority of Asian immigrants live in Peel, Toronto, and York. 2 Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table and Table Hemson, 2012 >Toronto Pearson International Airport - Public art celebrating the diversity of the population. 6 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

11 Beausoleil Chippewas of Rama Curve Lake Chippewas of Georgina Island Hiawatha Mississaugas of Scugog Island Alderville THE GGH TODAY Six Nations of the Grand River Mississauga of the New Credit Figure 2. First Nations Reserves in the GGH A large and diverse Indigenous community Indigenous peoples in Canada include First Nations, Métis and Inuit peoples. According to the 2011 Census, approximately 300,000 Indigenous people live in Ontario, which is about 2.4% of the total population of the province. One in five Indigenous people in Canada lives in Ontario. Overall, the Indigenous population in Canada (and Ontario) is younger and faster-growing than the non- Indigenous population. The Ontario Indigenous population is made up of primarily First Nations and Métis peoples, which is consistent with their historical presence in the province. While the Inuit historically resided mostly in northern parts of Canada (Nunavut), a number of them now live in Ontario, particularly in large cities such as Toronto or Ottawa. 133 First Nations communities are located in Ontario, of which nine are in the GGH. Six Nations of the Grand River is the largest First Nation reserve in Canada with about 25,000 people, and more than half of them live on reserve. Figure 2 shows the locations of the First Nations reserves in the GGH. 84% of First Nations peoples in Ontario live off-reserve, 4 and the off-reserve population is the fastest growing segment of Canadian society. A number of Métis communities are also located in Ontario, and most are affiliated with the Métis Nation of Ontario (MNO), which is the largest of three Métis governments in Ontario. Unlike First Nations, Métis peoples do not have a land base (reserves). Métis peoples predominantly live in urban centres. The MNO has a number of community councils, located in defined regions. Four MNO regions and 13 community councils are located in the GGH. A large urban Indigenous population is also present in the GGH. According to the 2011 National Household Survey, about 115,000 Indigenous peoples live in the GGH, which is about 38% of the total Indigenous population in Ontario, and 1.4% of the total population of the province. 5 Toronto as a city has the fourth largest Indigenous population in Canada at approximately 37, First Nations peoples are highly mobile between reserves and urban centres, and many who live in urban centres such as Toronto, return to their communities regularly. The GGH is also a place of historical, cultural, and spiritual importance for many Indigenous peoples in Ontario, including for some who do not reside in the area , National Household Survey , National Household Survey 6 Urban Indigenous Peoples, Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada, gc.ca/eng/ / SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 7

12 The GGH urban Indigenous population and Indigenous peoples living off-reserve have access to culturally appropriate and specific services (health, etc.) from a number of associations and not-for-profits, including Indigenous Friendship Centres and Native Women s Associations. Eight Indigenous Friendship Centres and seven local Native Women s Associations are located throughout the GGH, from St. Catharines and Niagara, to Peterborough and Midland. The Métis Nation of Ontario, the Ontario Federation of Friendship Centres, and the Ontario Native Women s Association work together on programming and a wide range of policy issues, such as the 2016 Urban Indigenous Action Plan in collaboration with the Ministry of Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation. In addition to these communities, the Huron-Wendat were historically present in the GGH area until the 17th century. Today, they are resident in Quebec, but have a continued interest in undertakings in Ontario (e.g. cultural heritage and archaeological resources) because of their historical presence there. Varied rural communities The Greater Golden Horseshoe contains many rural communities including rural settlement areas and agricultural communities. While rural areas within the GGH contain just over 6.5% of the population, they play an important role in the quality of life and economic success of the region, contributing to the province s agricultural and resource assets, natural heritage features, and recreational and entertainment amenities. As such, the success of both urban and rural areas within the GGH are fully intertwined. In contrast to more urban areas within the region, the rural portions of the GGH have a generally older population, with a smaller proportion of younger people, and a higher proportion of people over the age of 65. This varies across the GGH with a greater proportion of seniors located in the rural eastern half of the region, and a lower proportion of seniors in the rural central parts of the region, stretching from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) north to the County of Simcoe. Employment in the rural GGH displays many of the same characteristics of more urban parts of the region. Almost 25% of employers are small businesses with one to four employees. The number of jobs in rural areas has grown by 17% since The top industry employers in rural areas, as determined based on number of employees, are almost the same top industry employers as in urban areas. The exception is the greater role that the construction industry plays in rural employment. 7 An important driver of the Ontario and Canadian economies The GGH is frequently referred to as the economic engine of Ontario, and the largest economic engine in Canada. 8 Figures 3 and 4 show statistics on population, employment, and gross domestic product (GDP) that provide the basis for these assertions. The GGH accounts for more than half of Ontario s economy (Figure 3). The share of the GGH in the Ontario economy increased over the period of 2001 to 2015, across all socio-economic metrics considered. In 2015, the GGH accounted for 64% of population, 66% of employment, 67% of manufacturing employment, nearly 80% of employment in finance and real estate industries, 77% of employment in professional services, and 68% of total Ontario GDP. It is notable that the GGH s share of Ontario s employment is higher than its share of total population, and that its share of GDP is higher than its share of total employment. This is indicative of relatively high employment rates and high productivity compared to the Ontario average. In terms of the GGH s role in the Canadian economy, the GGH s share of employment in finance industries and employment in professional services increased over the period of 2001 to 2015, while its share of manufacturing employment decreased (Figure 4). As with the comparison to Ontario, the GGH s share of Canadian employment is higher than its share of Canadian population, although its share of GDP in 2015 is not higher than its share of employment. While the GGH s role within the Ontario and Canadian economies has increased over the past 15 years, GDP 7 Rural Profile of the GGH, prepared by the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, August Neptis, Context of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, introduction/chapters/context-greater-golden-horseshoe#_ftn1 (accessed July 25, 2016) 8 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

13 Figure 3. Share of the GGH in the Ontario Economy % 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% THE GGH TODAY 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% Population Total Employment Manufacturing Employment Finance Professional Services Employment Employment GDP Figure 3 shows that the GGH accounts for more than half of Ontario s economy, and that the share increased over the period of 2001 to 2015 across all socio-economic metrics considered. Source: Statistics Canada (CANSIM Table Population by CMA; CANSIM Table Population for Ontario; CANSIM Table Labour Force Survey Estimates/Employment by CMA; CANSIM Table Labour Force Survey Estimates/Employment for Ontario), Conference Board of Canada (GDP by CMA and Ontario). Figure 4. Share of the GGH in Total Canadian Economy 45.0% % 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% Population Total Employment Manufacturing Employment Finance Professional Services Employment Employment GDP Figure 4 shows that employment in finance and professional services increased over the period of 2001 to 2015, while the region s share of manufacturing employment decreased. Source: Statistics Canada (CANSIM Table Population by CMA; CANSIM Table Population for Canada; CANSIM Table Labour Force Survey Estimates/Employment by CMA; CANSIM Table Labour Force Survey Estimates/Employment for Canada), Conference Board of Canada (GDP by CMA and Canada) SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 9

14 growth has not kept up with the pace of population growth. There has also been a clear difference between major sectors of the economy. For example, there has been a significant growth in the share of financial employment, and a decline in the share of manufacturing employment in relation to the Canadian economy as a whole. A major gateway for people and goods Situated on the Great Lakes, and in close proximity to the border with the United States and its major markets of the Midwest and East Coast, the GGH functions as an important gateway for trade and the movement of people, providing transportation linkages to northern and eastern Ontario, the U.S., and the rest of the world through its ports and airports. An important component of the GGH s critical role in the regional, provincial, and national economy relates to the ability to make, move, and trade goods through and beyond the region, which is located within a day s drive of 55% of the U.S., and 62% of the Canadian population. The U.S. is Canada s most significant trade partner and this is no different for Ontario and the GGH. In 2015, the value of Canadian exports accounted for more than 26% of Canadian GDP (up from 23.3% in 2010). The value of Ontario exports accounted for nearly 31% of Ontario GDP (up from 25.9% in 2010). 9 41% of external freight (by commodity value) shipped by truck and destined to the GGH comes from the U.S., 36% comes from the rest of Ontario, and 23% from other Canadian provinces. These proportions remained effectively unchanged between 2006 and 2012, according to data from the MTO s Commercial Vehicle Survey. The GGH is both a significant generator of truck trips and a link that connects commercial traffic between the U.S. and northern and eastern Ontario. The QEW and Highway 401 are the two most significant linkages for commercial traffic. extensive transportation system that is comprised of a grid of highways, major arterials, collectors and local roads, complemented by airports, ports, railways, transit lines and active transportation networks. The 400-series highways are a network of provinciallycontrolled access highways that cover the southern portion of Ontario, and run throughout the GGH. The highway network expands in a somewhat radial shape, with most north-south roads ending in Toronto, and with the corridors that travel east and west across the GGH converging in the centre as they approach Toronto. The railways within the GGH follow a similar pattern, with most rail lines running parallel and in close proximity to one of the major 400-series highways. The railway lines are shared between freight operations, Canadian National and Canadian Pacific, and passenger services provided by GO Transit for regional connection, VIA Rail for intercity passenger travel across Canada, and Amtrak for connections to Niagara and New York City. Except for the railway network, only a few parts of the GGH have other rail-based transit. The City of Toronto has a subway and streetcar network, and York Region and Mississauga maintain Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) routes along Highway 7 and Highway 403 respectively. The GGH region is covered by trails and bike lanes which are planned and maintained by each municipality. There are three recreational trails that cross multiple upper-tier and single tier municipalities: the Waterfront trail; the TransCanada trail; and the Greenbelt route. The GGH is also served through key gateways via air and water. The six airports and seven major marine ports in the GGH transport people and goods, and connect the GGH, Ontario, and Canada with the U.S. and other international destinations. Additional details about the transportation system, its characteristics, and important trends and outlooks can be found in the Transportation Profile. The movement of people and goods is facilitated by an 9 Calculated based on 2015 trade and GDP data. Trade data information for all of Canada: Industry Canada, Trade Data Online, scr/tdst/tdo/crtr.html?&producttype=naics&lang=eng. GDP data: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

15 Trends and Forecasts People POPULATION From 2001 to 2015, the total population in the GGH increased by over 1.6 million, implying an average annual rate of growth over that period of 1.4%. This rate was higher than the rate of growth for Ontario and Canada, which amounted to just over 1% annually (as shown in the two bottom rows of Table 1). In general, the rate of growth slowed over time, and in the last five years it was lower than for the entire analysis period. Two notable exceptions are Toronto and Dufferin County, where the rate of growth actually increased. Population growth driven by immigration Net immigration is by far the largest driver of population growth in the GGH, averaging 95,925 people per year from 2006 to 2011, and 93,091 people per year from 2011to By comparison, natural increase averaged 43,504 people per year from 2006 and 2011 and 41,573 people per year from 2011 to Population growth varied by municipality within the GGH during these two time periods, as a result of net immigration and/or net intra-provincial migration flows. The City of Toronto received approximately half of the total number of immigrants to the GGH between 2006 and 2014, the most of any municipality in the GGH. Its net immigration averaged 49,363 people per year from 2006 to 2011, and 45,076 people per year from 2011 to Peel Region also received a large number of net immigrants, averaging over 28,000 per year during those time periods. York Region was the only other municipality that averaged more than 10,000 net immigrants per year during the same period. TRENDS AND FORECASTS Intra-regional migration is also a factor in population growth. While population growth in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) is primarily due to immigration from outside the country or province, growth from migration in Outer Ring municipalities is predominantly a function of people moving from the GTHA. Waterloo and Niagara Regions and the Wellington Census Division are the only Outer Ring areas where immigration outpaces migration from the GTHA. 10 Population Dynamics in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Millennials vs. Baby Boomers Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, Ryerson University, November 2015, derived from Statistics Canada 11 Ibid 12 Ibid SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 11

16 Immigration is managed by the federal government, which sets annual immigration targets. On average, Canada accepted nearly 255,000 new permanent residents per year between 2006 and Within that period, the highest peak occurred in 2010, when just over 280,000 new permanent residents were accepted. For 2016 and 2017, Citizen and Immigration Canada set a specific target of 300,000 new permanent residents per year. 13 Historically, Ontario hast hosted the greatest percentage of those immigrating to Canada, peaking at 60% in However, this number has steadily declined since 2002 and is now somewhere around 40%. This is due in large part to strong resource-based job growth in western Canada, as well as provincial nominee programs. Despite the decrease in the percentage of immigrants that it receives, Ontario continues to receive more immigrants than any other province. With continued low fertility rates going forward, the GGH will remain dependent on immigration for its population growth, and growth will, to some extent, be dependent on national immigration policy and global circumstances. For example, it has been suggested that with much of the world suffering more severe consequences of climate change, the GGH may be seen as a safe haven by global migrants, and may be under pressure for increased immigration. A recent history of higher growth rates in the Inner Ring municipalities Between 2001 and 2015, the average annual rate of growth varied between individual census divisions, from 0.5% or less (Northumberland, Peterborough, Kawartha Lakes, Niagara, and Haldimand) to more than 2% (York, Halton, and Peel). With Durham only slightly behind at 1.6%, the four fastest growing census divisions were the GTA municipalities outside of the City of Toronto. Outside of the GTA, Simcoe, Waterloo, and Dufferin were the only census districts with an annual growth rate above the Ontario and Canada averages. The GTA s share of total GGH population increased over the period of 2001 to 2015, from 67.5% to 69.7%. Within the GTA, Toronto s share declined from 32.9% to 29.7% while the share of the other census divisions increased. However, even at this reduced share, Toronto is still the largest census division, followed by Peel (15%), and York (12%). > Mississauga City Centre - The Regions of Peel, Durham, and York have had some of the highest rates of growth since Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts & Figures, GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

17 Table 1. Population Trends GGH Census Division Northumberland Total Growth 2015 Average Annual Growth Rate 2015 Average Annual Growth Rate Share of Total 2001 Share of Total ,513 83,823 86,188 5, % 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% Peterborough 130, , ,886 9, % 0.2% 1.7% 1.5% Kawartha Lakes 72,004 75,018 75,845 3, % 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% TRENDS AND FORECASTS Durham 527, , , , % 1.3% 6.7% 7.0% York 762,797 1,043,585 1,140, , % 1.8% 9.7% 12.0% Toronto 2,584,246 2,676,148 2,826, , % 1.1% 32.9% 29.7% Peel 1,032,170 1,318,153 1,438, , % 1.8% 13.1% 15.1% Dufferin 53,087 58,014 62,024 8, % 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% Wellington 194, , ,850 27, % 0.9% 2.5% 2.3% Halton 390, , , , % 2.0% 5.0% 5.9% Hamilton 510, , ,359 46, % 0.9% 6.5% 5.9% Niagara 426, , ,098 22, % 0.3% 5.4% 4.7% Haldimand 45,595 46,617 46, % -0.1% 0.6% 0.5% Brant 128, , ,242 15, % 0.7% 1.6% 1.5% Waterloo 456, , ,511 85, % 0.9% 5.8% 5.7% Simcoe 392, , ,088 93, % 1.4% 5.0% 5.1% Total GGH 7,790,201 8,862,937 9,437,268 1,647, % 1.3% 100.0% 100.0% GTA Total 5,297,773 6,163,657 6,625,695 1,327, % 1.46% 67.5% 69.7% Non-GTA Total 2,492,428 2,699,280 2,811, , % 0.82% 32.0% 29.8% Ontario 11,897,370 13,135,063 13,792,052 1,894, % 0.98% Canada 31,020,596 34,005,274 35,851,774 4,831, % 1.06% Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table and Table SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 13

18 Table 2. Population Forecasts Area Population Forecasts (Figures in 000s) Average Annual Rate of Growth, Percent Total Growth (000s) Total Growth Rate, Percent Region of Durham ,080 1, % 2.17% 1.96% % 10.19% Region of York 1,200 1,590 1,700 1, % 1.35% 1.04% % 5.29% City of Toronto 2,870 3,190 3,300 3, % 0.68% 0.60% % 3.03% Region of Peel 1,460 1,770 1,870 1, % 1.11% 1.05% % 5.35% Region of Halton City of Hamilton , % 2.10% 1.90% % 9.89% % 1.43% 1.33% % 6.85% GTHA Total 7,370 9,010 9,590 10, % 1.26% 1.10% % 5.63% County of Northumberland County of Peterborough City of Peterborough City of Kawartha Lakes County of Simcoe % 0.98% 0.93% % 4.76% % 0.84% 0.81% % 4.11% % 1.14% 1.08% % 5.50% % 0.20% 1.16% % 5.94% % 1.85% 1.74% % 8.99% City of Barrie % 1.92% 1.84% % 9.52% City of Orillia % 1.42% 0.89% % 4.55% County of Dufferin County of Wellington % 0.25% 0.97% % 4.94% % 1.59% 1.18% % 6.06% City of Guelph % 0.78% 0.75% % 3.80% Region of Waterloo % 1.24% 1.14% % 5.83% County of Brant % 1.58% 1.47% % 7.55% County of Brantford County of Haldimand Region of Niagara Outer GGH Ring Total % 1.80% 1.41% % 7.24% % 1.03% 1.30% % 6.67% % 1.22% 1.12% % 5.72% 2,300 2,940 3,150 3, % 1.39% 1.24% % 6.35% GGH Total 9,670 11,950 12,740 13, % 1.29% 1.14% % 5.81% Source: Growth Plan for the Golden Horseshoe, 2017, Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs, May 2017, Schedule 3. Note: 2016 population figures are sourced from Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts, Technical Report (November 2012) Addendum, June 2013 Reference Scenario, HEMSON Consulting 14 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

19 > The GGH is experiencing significant population aging. Rural growth has not kept pace with more urban areas The majority of people living in the GGH reside within its urban census subdivisions. In 2011 rural areas accounted for only 6.7% of the total GGH population. This proportion is projected to decrease slightly to 6.5% by While rural areas within the GGH are experiencing population growth and are projected to grow by 156,736 residents (21%) between 2011 and 2024, growth is not keeping pace with the more urban areas of the region. 14 Continued rapid growth, followed by a slowdown Forecasts state that the total GGH population will increase to nearly 12 million by 2031, and nearly 13.5 million by 2041 (see Table 2). This implies by 2031 there will be another million people living in GGH, and a further 1.5 million in Growth rates across the GGH will slow down slightly over the analysis period. Population forecasts anticipate that the GGH s age distribution will flatten out by In part, this is due to rising life expectancy rates, and the strong inflow of younger immigrants into the region. An aging population Although the GGH is one of the most youthful regions in Canada, it is also experiencing significant population aging, with every municipality expected to have a greater portion of the population aged over 65 by Population aging is not occurring equally across the region; and Outer Ring municipalities are forecast to experience the most rapid rates of aging. Labour force growth is expected to slow over the period to This is due to less growth in the working age population, and greater growth in the non-working age population, especially older adults. The proportion of Ontario s population in their prime working years is forecasted to decline from 70% in 2011, to 59% by This will pose a significant financial challenge to the region, as revenues from a smaller labour force will need to support services for a growing and aging population. However, it is forecasted that there will be a modest and gradual increase in labour force participation among seniors, due to a number of factors, including: Greater labour force participation among older women who have been in the workforce for much or all of their working lives; Increasing life expectancy and overall improvement in seniors health and therefore their ability to continue work as they age; The increasing need for labour as the baby boom generation enters retirement age; Concern among the aging population that they will not have sufficient income to support themselves; and Government policies, including changes to old age security eligibility, that are set to be phased in between 2023 and 2029, that may contribute to retirement being delayed. TRENDS AND FORECASTS 14 Rural Profile of the GGH, prepared by the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, August Miner Management Consultants, 2010 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 15

20 HEALTH AND ACTIVE LIVING A decline in physical activity Routine daily physical activity has declined for decades in Ontario due to a variety of factors, including a decrease in manual occupations that necessitate walking, neighbourhood design that discourages walking, and lifestyles that have made it less common for children to walk to school. 16 The health consequences of this trend are significant and are reflected in the increase in metabolic diseases like obesity and diabetes. The consequences to human health result in significant costs to the healthcare system. Estimated costs attributable to physical inactivity and obesity in the GTHA are $4 billion annually, which includes $1.4 billion per year in direct medical costs. Physical activity reduces the risk of many chronic diseases, yet many residents do not get enough of it in their daily lives. For example, 60% of Torontonians aged 12 and older were below recommended levels for physical activity during their leisure time in Not surprisingly, about one in five adolescents and four out of ten adults were overweight or obese in Similarly, in Peel Region, between and , diabetes prevalence increased by more than 50%, rising from 5.9% to 9.2%. Increasing links between health, transportation, and built form The link between transportation behaviour and health has been well established by recent research. Much of the built form of the GGH is highly automobile oriented, discouraging active transportation (walking, cycling) and public transit use. Many specific areas show health patterns that are closely tied to their particular transportation and built form conditions. In Mississauga and Brampton, for example, many high-diabetes areas (with rates 20% or higher than the GTA average) had a lower-to-medium density of walkable destinations. Meanwhile, most high-diabetes areas had medium or lower rates of average daily public transit trips. Many of these areas are home to large proportions of new immigrants, often from countries with high diabetes prevalence. 17 When combined with lower incomes, and low neighbourhood walkability, the health and economic costs of low active transportation rates are multiplied. > The link between transportation and health has been well established. Regions, cities, and towns can play a big role in supporting more active and healthy modes of transportation, such as the Waterfront Trail in the City of Toronto. 16 Improving Health by Design in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA), Diabetes Atlas for the Region of Peel, GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

21 Low income and elderly residents are particularly impacted by the characteristic of the transportation system Like new immigrants, low-income residents as a whole share many of these same vulnerabilities. This makes them another particularly at-risk group when healthy transportation options are lacking. According to a 2016 report from Toronto s Transit Fare Equity Program, lowincome Torontonians are more likely to depend on transit to access healthy food, and are less likely to take a sick child to the doctor if they lack access to a car. 18 This is particularly important in suburban areas, where transit is not always readily accessible, given that low-income residents are generally above-average users of transit for their commutes to work. 19 The aging population of the GGH is another vulnerable group, and it is growing. Seniors need broader transportation options to accommodate the health, mobility, and independence challenges that come with age. A Hamilton report noted seniors fears of inaccessible or unfamiliar transit systems if they were to lose their ability to drive. They also expressed related concerns over challenging pedestrian conditions such as those related to crosswalks and stoplight timing which reduce opportunities for physical activity and aging in place. 20 For all of these groups in the GGH, healthy and accessible transportation options help to even out gaps in health equity, a key issue in a region where immigration will continue to rise, while the existing population ages. Supporting an accessible province In an effort to promote greater accessibility, the province established the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act in The Act legislates accessibility reporting, and establishes standards so that people with disabilities can participate more actively in their communities. It includes standards related to customer service, information and communications, employment, design of public spaces, integrated accessibility standards, and a transportation standard. The latter includes guidance on communicating the availability of accessible transportation services, providing training for transit service providers, supporting transit riders, the provision of transportation services, and the design of vehicles and transportation facilities. TRENDS AND FORECASTS >The Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act, 2005, establishes standards so people with disabilities can participate more actively in their communities. 18 Fair Pass: Transit Fare Equity Program for Low Income Torontonians, Report for Action, November 17, 2016, mmis/2016/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile pdf 19 Toronto Public Health, Next Stop Health: Transit Access and Health Inequities in Toronto, March Hamilton s Plan for an Age-Friendly City, Hamilton Council on Aging, Fall 2014, SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 17

22 Relatively high unemployment and labour force participation $ Economy EMPLOYMENT Employment is a key factor in overall economic and population growth. The GGH has seen relatively strong employment growth over the long term. Transportation networks are a key contributor to enabling growth both in the role of connecting workers to employment, and also goods to market. Figure 5 illustrates trends in total employment in the GGH over the period of 2001 to 2015, compared to trends across Ontario and Canada over the same period. Table 3 provides select statistics that correspond to this figure. Significant job growth Over the period of 2001 to 2015, total employment in the GGH s census metropolitan areas increased from about 3.7 million to almost 4.6 million jobs, or by 23.5% (869,000 jobs) (Figure 5 and Table 3). This total growth implies an average annual rate of growth of over 1.5%. Employment in the GGH grew faster than the average in Ontario and across Canada, where total growth over the period and average annual growth rates were lower. In the GGH and in all of Ontario employment also grew faster than the population (Table 1). From 2001 to 2015, the unemployment rate in the GGH fluctuated between 6.2% and 9.5% (Figure 6). This rate tended to be above the unemployment rate for Ontario, and in general it closely followed fluctuations in the Ontario rate. Until 2005, both the Ontario and the GGH unemployment rates were below the unemployment rate for all of Canada. After that year, the GGH and Ontario unemployment rates started increasing and exceeded the rate for Canada. Unemployment rates for the GGH, Ontario, and Canada reached a peak in 2009, and started declining following the global financial crisis. By 2015 they converged to approximately the same level. Participation rates in the labour force declined in the GGH, Ontario, and Canada from 2001 to 2015 (Figure 7). In the GGH, the participation rate declined from a high of 70% in 2003 to 67% in It is notable that the participation rate in the GGH was above the rate for all of Ontario and Canada. This implies that relatively more people in the GGH were engaged in the labour market (by either actively working or looking for employment opportunities) than on average across Ontario and Canada. This can partly explain the somewhat higher unemployment rates in the GGH than on average across Ontario and Canada. Figure 5. Employment Trends in the GGH, Ontario, and Canada, ,000 19,000 In 2009, employment in the GGH, Ontario, and Canada declined compared to the previous year, reflecting the global economic recession (Figure 5). While it took an additional year for employment numbers to recover for all of Ontario and Canada, by 2010 employment in the GGH had reached pre-recession levels. Thousands (GGH, Ontario) 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 Thousands (Canada) 3, GGH Ontario Canada ,000 4,000 7,000 Between 2001 and 2015, employment in the GGH s Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) increased from approximately 3.7 million to almost 4.6 million jobs. 18 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table and Table

23 Table 3. Total Employment in the GGH, Ontario, and Canada, Geography Average Annual Change Growth Rate GGH CMAs 3, , , % 1.52% Ontario 5, , , % 1.12% Canada 16, , , % 0.77% Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table and Table Table 4. Employment Forecasts TRENDS AND FORECASTS Area Employment Forecasts (000s) Average Annual Rate of Growth, Percent Total Growth (000s) Total Growth Rate, Percent Region of Durham % 1.6% 2.0% % 19.4% Region of York % 1.2% 1.4% % 13.9% City of Toronto 1,573 1,660 1,680 1, % 0.2% 0.5% % 3.6% Region of Peel % 0.9% 1.1% % 10.2% Region of Halton City of Hamilton % 2.0% 1.8% % 20.5% % 1.3% 1.2% % 12.9% GTHA Total 3,735 4,380 4,580 4, % 0.9% 1.0% % 10.0% Outer GGH Ring 1,071 1,280 1,360 1, % 1.2% 1.3% % 13.3% GGH Total 4,805 5,650 5,930 6, % 1.0% 1.1% % 11.0% Source: Growth Plan for the Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure, Office Consolidation, June 2013, Schedule 3. Note: 2016 employment figures are sourced from Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts, Technical Report (November 2012) Addendum, June 2013, HEMSON Consulting SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 19

24 Income level and income disparity vary across the GGH GTHA municipalities tend to have higher median and average household incomes compared to Outer Ring GGH municipalities (Table 5). The highest median and average incomes are in the region of Halton ($91,955 and $119,403, respectively) followed by region of York ($89,100 and $110,751, respectively). The City of Toronto has the lowest median income and the second lowest average income in the GTHA. Outer Ring GGH municipalities tend to have lower incomes, both in terms of median and average income. However, there are a few areas where income is not far behind income levels in the GTHA. These include the Counties of Dufferin, Brant, and Wellington. In each of these areas, median total income exceeds $70,000 annually. For the first two of these areas, average total income exceeds $90,000 annually, and for the third area, it exceeds $87,000. A large difference between average and median incomes within an area (Table 5) suggests existing inequalities and large income gaps between households. The table demonstrates that the largest income gaps are in the City of Toronto, where the difference between the average and median incomes amounts to $28,657, which is over 49% of the median income. The Region of Halton is second in terms of inequality among the GTHA municipalities, with a difference of over $27,000 (nearly 30%) between the average and median incomes. However, this difference is based on a much higher income level than in the City of Toronto. Within the GTHA, Hamilton and the Regions of Durham and Peel have more equal income distribution, with a smaller difference between the average and median incomes. Outer Ring GGH municipalities have smaller differences between average and median incomes, primarily due to lower income levels. When the difference between average and median is analyzed in terms of the percentage of the median, the numbers reach well over 20% in a few areas. This indicates a similar magnitude of inequality to that experienced in the previously mentioned GTHA municipalities. Examples of those areas include the City of Orillia (with 30% difference), County of Brant (26% difference), and City of Peterborough (25% difference). GTHA municipalities tend to have a higher percentage of households with annual incomes of $150,000 and over compared with Outer Ring GGH municipalities. In particular, more than 20% of households in the Region of Halton and the Region of York have total incomes exceeding $150,000. FIGURE 6. Unemployment Rate, Percent Over the period of 2001 to 2015, the unemployment rate in the GGH fluctuated between 6.2% and 9.5%. This rate tended to be above the unemployment rate for Ontario and in general it closely followed fluctuations in the Ontario rate. GGH CMAs Ontario Canada Source: Statistics Canada, Unemployment rate for GGH CMAs: CANSIM Table Note: The series illustrated in the graph represents the weighted average of rates for individual CMAs. Unemployment rate for Ontario and Canada: CANSIM Table GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

25 Figure 7. Labour Force Participation Rate, Percent 70.0 Between and 2015, labour force participation 69.0 rates declined in 68.5 all geographic areas. However, 68.0 the participation 67.5 rate in the GGH was above the rate 67.0 for all of Ontario 66.5 and Canada GGH CMAs Ontario Canada TRENDS AND FORECASTS Source: Statistics Canada. Participation rate for GGH CMAs: CANSIM Table Note: The series illustrated in the graph represents the weighted average of rates for individual CMAs. Participation rate for Ontario and Canada: CANSIM Table Table 5. Household Income in the GGH Geographic Region GTHA Municipalities Median Total Income Average Total Income Difference Average vs. Median Percent Difference Average vs. Median Percent of Households with Income $150,000 or Over Region of Durham $81,119 $95,567 $14, % 16.40% Region of York $89,100 $110,751 $21, % 21.50% City of Toronto $58,381 $87,038 $28, % 12.60% Region of Peel $77,588 $93,916 $16, % 15.30% Region of Halton $91,955 $119,403 $27, % 23.80% City of Hamilton $60,259 $76,742 $16, % 10.00% Outer Ring GGH Municipalities County of Northumberland $62,173 $74,998 $12, % 8.40% County of Peterborough $57,790 $72,033 $14, % 7.70% City of Peterborough $52,883 $66,284 $13, % 6.30% City of Kawartha Lakes $59,392 $72,694 $13, % 7.50% County of Simcoe $67,468 $80,842 $13, % 10.30% City of Barrie $69,471 $80,928 $11, % 10.30% City of Orillia $48,972 $63,896 $14, % 5.70% County of Dufferin $77,186 $94,295 $17, % 14.30% County of Wellington $71,864 $87,365 $15, % 12.60% City of Guelph $68,570 $83,047 $14, % 11.30% Region of Waterloo $69,706 $85,546 $15, % 11.50% County of Brant $74,955 $94,540 $19, % 13.50% City of Brantford $56,837 $67,554 $10, % 6.00% County of Haldimand $68,510 $79,352 $10, % 8.90% Region of Niagara $58,662 $72,453 $13, % 8.10% Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey Profiles. Note: Data presented in the table represents 2010 total income for all households in a geographic area SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 21

26 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) GGH as an engine of the Ontario and Canadian economies In the GGH, GDP increased over the period of 2001 to 2015 from $315,718 to $417,750 million 21, or by 32% (Table 6). This GDP growth exceeds the growth in Ontario and Canada in the same time period. In other words, the GGH economy grew faster overall than the Ontario and Canadian economies. The table also demonstrates that the GGH accounts for a substantial portion of the overall Ontario and Canadian GDPs, as illustrated earlier in Figures 3 and 4. Over the period of 2002 to 2015, GDP in the GGH grew at a rate between 1.8% and 3.4%, except for in 2008 and 2009 when GDP declined (Figure 8). Figure 8 demonstrates that over the analysis period, the GGH GDP growth rate exceeded that of Ontario, and in the last two years - as a result of a decline in the price of oil - it also exceeded that of Canada. The GGH and Ontario GDPs declined in 2008 and 2009, years of economic slowdown and recession. Overall Canadian GDP growth was still positive in 2008 but declined in 2009 at a similar rate as the GGH and Ontario GDPs. From 2001 to 2015, GDP per capita in the GGH increased from $43,654 in 2001 to $47,298 in 2015 (or 8.3%) (Figure 9). GDP per capita in the GGH declined sharply in While it started growing the following year, it only recovered to the pre-recession peak in Figure 9 also demonstrates that over the entire analysis period, GDP per capita in the GGH was higher than the averages in Ontario and Canada. However, the gap between the GGH and Canada has widened substantially since the financial crisis. Table 6. GDP in the GGH, Ontario, and Canada Geographic Area GDP, Millions 2007 Dollars GDP Growth , Percent GGH 315, ,750 32% Ontario 490, ,975 26% Canada 1,251,355 1,648,540 32% 21 Expressed in 2007 Canadian dollar value Figure 8. GDP Growth Rate in the GGH, Ontario, and Canada Source: Conference Board of Canada. Note: GDP for the GGH CMAs was derived as explained in the Appendix 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% With the exception of 2008 and 2009, the growth of GDP in the GGH exceeded that of the rest of the province. However, GDP growth lagged behind the rest of the country for much of the period between 2003 and % -4.0% GGH CMAs Ontario Canada Source: Developed based on Conference Board of Canada GDP data. Total GDP for the GGH CMAs was derived as explained in the Appendix 22 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

27 Figure 9. GDP per Capita in the GGH, Ontario, and Canada, in Constant 2007 Dollars $ Per capita GDP remains higher, but $ growth has lagged behind that of the rest of the country $ since $ $ $ $ $ TRENDS AND FORECASTS $ GGH CMAs Ontario Canada Source: GDP: Developed based on Conference Board of Canada GDP data. GDP for the GGH CMAs was derived as explained in the Appendix. Population: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables and INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE Shift from a manufacturing-based to a service-based economy Between 2001 and 2015, total employment in the GGH increased by almost 869,000 jobs (Table 7). However, employment growth was not experienced across all sectors, and in some traditional sectors, such as manufacturing, employment declined. More specifically, service industries grew by 962,800 jobs (or 35%). At the same time, the goods producing sector declined by almost 94,000 jobs (or 10%). Within the goods producing sector, manufacturing had the greatest decline with a loss of nearly 210,000 jobs. The largest growth was in health care and social assistance services at 161,000 jobs (or 51%), followed by finance, insurance, and real estate industries at 141,000 jobs (or 48%), and educational services at 140,000 jobs (or 69%). In 2001, the largest industry in the GGH was manufacturing, employing over 709,000 people, followed by wholesale and retail trade and professional services. By 2015, wholesale and retail trade became the largest industry, followed by manufacturing, and health care and social assistance. Professional services, and finance and insurance industries, also represent large industries, with a total employment figure of over 430,000 jobs each. The following trends can be seen in the employment for key industries in the GGH in 2001 and 2015 (Figure 10): In 2001, manufacturing was the largest industry sector in the GGH with a share of 19% of total employment. By 2015, the share of employment in manufacturing fell to 11%; In contrast, the shares of most service industries increased from 2001 to 2015; The share of employment in finance, insurance, and real estate increased from just below 8% in 2001 to 9.5% in 2015; The share of professional services increased from 8.7% to 9.7%; The share of health care and social assistance increased from 8.5% to 10.4%; The share of accommodation and food services increased from 5.2% to 6.3%; The share of employment in the construction industry also increased from 5.4% in 2001, to 6.7% in SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 23

28 Figure 10. Industry Employment Shares in the GGH, 2001 and 2015 Public administration [91] Other services [81] Accommodation and food services [72] Information, culture, recreation [51,71] Health care and social assistance [62] Educational services [61] Business support services [55-56] Professional services [54] Finance, insurance, real estate [52-53] Transportation and warehousing [48-49] Wholesale and retail trade [41,44-45] Manufacturing [31-33] Construction [23] While manufacturing has seen a substantial drop in share of GGH employment the share of most service industries has increased. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Table 7. Trends in Employment by Industry in the GGH Industry Employment (Thousands) Employment Change (Thousands) Employment Growth (Percent) Industry Share of Total, 2015 (Percent) Total employed, all industries 3, , % 100% Goods-producing sector % 19.0% Services-producing sector 2, , % 81.0% Construction [23] % 6.7% Manufacturing [31-33] % 10.9% Wholesale and retail trade [41, 44-45] % 15.3% Transportation and warehousing [48-49] % 4.8% Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing [52-53] Professional, scientific and technical services [54] Business, building and other support services [55-56] % 9.5% % 9.7% % 5.1% Educational services [61] % 7.5% Health care and social assistance [62] % 10.4% Information, culture and recreation [51, 71] % 4.9% Accommodation and food services [72] % 6.4% Other services (except public administration) [81] % 4.0% Public administration [91] % 3.4% Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table (sum of employment in GGH CMAs). Note: The table does not show employment in agriculture and utilities that were suppressed by Statistics Canada 24 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

29 Shift to high-skilled jobs Although the decline in manufacturing, with its loss of almost 210,000 jobs, emerges as a very profound change in the industrial structure of the GGH, it also should be noted that manufacturing is a very diverse sector and certain manufacturing sectors are actually experiencing some growth. Table 8 shows total employment in manufacturing in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) as well as employment in select manufacturing industries. The table demonstrates that although total manufacturing employment declined by more than 100,000 over the period of 2001 to 2014, employment in the food manufacturing and aerospace sectors increased over the same period. The food manufacturing sector is the largest manufacturing industry employer in the region. Also, employment in primary metal manufacturing and instruments manufacturing increased over the period of 2004 to This is indicative of another trend in the shift to more skilled jobs, and higher value-added activities in all industries, including manufacturing. Current economic restructuring in the GGH is characterized by a shift to higher-value-added activities, including a shift to knowledge-intensive activities. This is true for jobs in both the manufacturing and service sectors. According to recent work completed by the Neptis Foundation, examining the changing economy of the GGH, employment in the highest skilled, knowledge-intensive industries has grown by 33% since 2001, while jobs in the low-skilled industries, where routine jobs are concentrated, saw very little growth. Job losses were experienced in some categories, including 19,000 assembly line workers, 23,000 machine operators, 24,000 secretaries, and 11,000 finance and insurance clerks. 22 Despite the significant increases in high-skilled employment, there was also an increase in work such as cleaning, construction, and food services, due to the inability to move these types of jobs off-shore. These jobs are often of varied hours and more dispersed throughout the region, presenting a challenge to provide efficient and affordable transportation choices. TRENDS AND FORECASTS 22 Planning for Prosperity, Neptis Foundation, 2015 Table 8. Employment in Select Manufacturing Industries in the Toronto CMA Industry Manufacturing, total 452, , ,890 Food manufacturing 42,030 49,680 55,150 Primary metal manufacturing 11,330 5,800 8,200 Navigational, measuring, medical, and control instruments manufacturing 5,350 2,940 4,650 Aerospace product and parts manufacturing 11,490 6,580 13,820 Source: Toronto CMA Industry Profiles, Labour Force Survey data, M d60f89RCRD SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 25

30 Warehousing, distribution, and logistics is a growing sector Warehouse, distribution, and logistics-related activities are an important and growing part of the GGH economy. The industry takes care of transporting goods from their origins to destinations, but also provides value-added services and capacity related to operations (such as receiving, storage, cross-docking, inventory planning and management, order consolidation, or packaging and re-packaging). These functions are essential to an efficient, low-cost flow of goods from their origins (including manufacturing factories), to where they are used or consumed (such as retail stores, and individual consumers). In the GGH, there are currently 89,910 jobs associated with this sector, including at major distribution facilities for some of the country s largest distributors. Unsurprisingly, given a reliance on trucks for much of the associated shipping, there is a strong relationship between the concentration of warehouse and logistics facilities and the Region s highway network. Some of the largest concentrations of these are located at major highway interchanges, including Highways 404/407, 407/401, and the QEW/427. The largest cluster of logistics and warehousing related employment is located in and around Pearson International Airport where four major highways converge, and the airport is located. An important factor influencing the growth and expansion of logistics and warehousing has been the demand for just-in-time delivery required by the region s manufacturing sector and more recently the growth of online retailing. This poses a significant challenge given the increasingly congested highway networks and land consumptive characteristic of these uses. AUTOMATION Introduction of significant automation across multiple industries Further changes in economic structure and employment are likely to be seen due to the introduction of automation within industries across the board. The impact of automation can already be seen in the shift from low-skilled to high-skilled jobs discussed in the previous section. Routine jobs such as many back office and administrative functions are being replaced by automation, and industries such as finance, manufacturing, and even law are undergoing their own transformations as they increasingly automate processes. Autonomous vehicles are another manifestation of this much larger trend towards automation. In the case of autonomous vehicles, the entire infrastructure that has developed over the 20th century to support automobiles is in flux. As cars become sophisticated computers, repairs will be handled by software engineers rather than by mechanics. Safety will improve and collisions will decrease, further reducing the need for local towing companies and body shops. It is not merely drivers who may one day be replaced, but an entire support industry. Fewer jobs, different jobs > Automation is replacing low-skilled jobs, and increasing the demand for high-skilled employment. A 2016 report 23 forecasted that artificial intelligence will replace 16% of jobs in the U.S. by 2025, while the equivalent of 9% of jobs will be created, resulting in a net loss of 7% of jobs. New job descriptions will be invented as humans seek to monitor autonomous applications and manage big data. That the nature and geography of employment will be different is certain, but whether automation generates more jobs than it eliminates is an open question. Every technological revolution to date 23 The Future of White-Collar Work: Sharing your cubicle with Robots, June 2016, Craig Le Clair, J.P. Gownder with Laura Koetzle, Michele Goetz, Diego Lo Giudice, James L. McQuivey, Alex Cullen, Shaun McGovern, Diane Lynch, Jobs+By+2025/-/E-PRE GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

31 has ultimately resulted in a net job gain, but there is no definitive answer yet when it comes to the current shift to automation. ONLINE AND ON DEMAND ECONOMY Greater use of scarce resources through sharing A trend toward greater participation in the sharing economy has occurred in the GGH in recent years, disrupting some markets and developing into a significant feature of the broader economy. The sharing economy uses applications that allow for the sharing of resources (it should be noted that generally this is for a fee) that can be considered spare capacity, and that can be easily and inexpensively offered on the market for productive use. The sharing economy is enmeshed in various aspects of the overall economy, including goods (e.g. peers trading and sharing pre-owned goods with one another), accommodation (e.g. peers offering overnight accommodation or storage to one another), mobility (e.g. car-sharing and ride- sharing), money (e.g. peers lending or giving money and start-up funding to one another) and services (e.g. peers offering professional or personal services to one another). New models of service delivery The growth of the sharing economy coupled with the ability for on-demand services facilitated by smart phone technology has resulted in disruptions to incumbent established industries. For example, the growing popularity of Uber a personal ride-sharing application is already disrupting the taxi services industry in the GGH. Ubertype applications for freight shipments may also lead to profound changes in the truck transportation industry. Similarly, Airbnb, which allows individuals to offer their homes to travelers who need overnight accommodation, is also leading to disruptions in the accommodation services industry in the GGH. Increasingly, individuals are earning income through these platforms instead of, or to supplement the income they earn from day jobs. This may be leading to a rise in precarious employment as services shift away from more established, and therefore regulated, models. TRENDS AND FORECASTS > New models of service delivery will continue to impact transportation patterns across the GGH. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 27

32 Land Use URBAN INTENSIFICATION AND HOUSING PREFERENCES Strong policy planning for intensification While about half of the homes in the GGH are singlefamily detached dwellings, municipalities are planning for a greater range and mix of housing options - including affordable housing - in line with provincial policy such as the Growth Plan. The Growth Plan directs a significant portion of forecasted growth to built-up areas, both through intensification, and by focusing growth in strategic growth areas, particularly Urban Growth Centres. It sets out a broad vision for transportation, and establishes a regional structure for future growth. It directs integration between transportation and land use planning decisions by requiring transit supportive densities in major transit station areas, promoting connected urban centres, and prioritizing transit and the efficient movement of people and goods among transportation modes. The Growth Plan sets forth specific targets for municipalities to achieve this end, stating that by the year 2031, and for each year thereafter, a minimum of 60 percent of all residential development occurring annually within each upper- and single-tier municipality will be within a delineated built-up area. This will facilitate the residential intensification of the Urban Growth Centres and the delineated built-up area. This furthers the goal of intensifying built-up areas that are already connected to existing infrastructure. > Municipalities have begun to plan for greater intensification and housing diversity, in line with provincial policy. Gap between locational preference and affordability The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and the Pembina Institute s Home Location Study, released in 2012, found that over 80% of GTA residents would give up a large home and yard to live in a location-efficient neighbourhood that is transit-friendly, walkable, and offers shorter commute times. However, more than 70% of residents in the GTA live where they do because of affordability rather than preference. While this study is GTA-specific, it indicates that households are choosing car-dependent neighbourhoods largely because of prices rather than a preference for these locations. 24 Demand for single-family homes in established and location-efficient neighbourhoods in the City of Toronto and in other urban/suburban locations in the GTA has outstripped supply, driving up prices for these homes. Due to the relative scarcity of larger, affordable, and location-efficient homes there has been an increase in demand for smaller and therefore more affordable apartment and multi-unit homes in location-efficient neighbourhoods. From 2006 to 2013, there was a regionwide shift in the new-build housing split from single-family to apartment, led largely by Toronto s condominium boom. While smaller units may be suitable for small household sizes, the lack of more affordable, larger, and locationefficient housing is creating challenges for larger families and/or smaller families that wish to grow while remaining in their location-efficient neighbourhood. Outside Toronto the dominant housing stock remains single-family detached homes. The challenge for many of these areas relates to supporting their gradual 24 RBC-Pembina Home Location Study, GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

33 TRENDS AND FORECASTS > Outside of downtown Toronto there is a strong relationship between some of the region s largest employment clusters and the proximity to highway corridors. intensification over time so that they can improve their locational efficiency while supporting a greater mix of housing types. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION A majority of employment is spread throughout the GGH Over two thirds of employment is located outside of the four largest employment clusters. It is spread throughout the GGH, including in the downtowns of each city within the GGH (in particular in Mississauga, Hamilton, Kitchener, Peterborough, and Oshawa), and industrial districts with a significant number of jobs in manufacturing, construction, and utilities (in Scarborough, Pickering, Oshawa, Guelph, Waterloo, and Hamilton). An important factor in the location of employment uses throughout the GGH has been the proximity to significant highway corridors. These corridors have helped to support businesses by facilitating the movement of goods, and have been critical in supporting access to the broader GGH labour pool. Significant intra-regional commuting While labour force survey employment data represents a good macroeconomic statistic regarding employment of residents of a geographic area, it is also helpful to consider employment statistics by place of work (i.e. locations where individuals work as opposed to where they reside). In large and dense urban areas, the two statistics may not be the same due to significant intra-regional work commuting, defined as travel from one census geographic area of residence to another census geographic area of work place. This situation is very common in the GGH, in particular in the GTA. Commuting trips to Toronto account for a substantial share of commuting trips in many areas (Table 9). For example, 53% of commuting trips from Pickering, and 49% of trips from Markham are to Toronto. At the same time, the share of commuting trips within the same geographic area of residence is relatively low (except for in Toronto itself). It exceeds 50% in Burlington, Mississauga, and Toronto, but it is much lower in other areas. For example, Table 9 shows that the share of within residence area commuting trips in Pickering amounts to just 21% of total trips, and in Richmond Hill to 23% of total trips. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 29

34 Table 9. Commuting Flows in the GTA Residence Area (Census Subdivision) Total Trips to Workplaces in GTA from Residence Area Trips to Toronto as % of Total Trips From Residence Area Within Residence Area Trips as % of Total Destination Trips Brampton 210, % 37.3% Burlington 67, % 50.8% Markham 119, % 31.1% Mississauga 295, % 56.3% Oakville 72, % 37.4% Oshawa 57, % 43.2% Pickering 37, % 20.8% Richmond Hill 74, % 23.2% Toronto 1,020, % 82.1% Vaughan 119, % 35.1% Whitby 51, % 26.4% Other Census Subdivisions in GTA 289, % 38.5% Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no X Table 10. Employment Trends in GGH, by Work Place Location Geographic Area within GGH Total Growth Total Growth , Percent Average Annual Growth Downtown Toronto 416, ,650 48, % 1.1% Airport Area 275, ,990 22, % 0.8% Tor-York West 132, ,890 6, % 0.5% Tor-York East 96, ,260 9, % 1.0% Rest of GGH 2,310,290 2,531, , % 0.9% Total GGH Employment 3,231,380 3,538, , % 0.9% Suburban Knowledge Intensive Districts Within Megazones (Airport South, Markham) Outside Megazones (Meadowvale, Sheridan, Waterloo) 107, ,540 19, % 1.6% 46,530 70,290 23, % 4.2% Source: Based on The Neptis Foundation, Planning for Prosperity, 2015, Tables No. 2 and 5. Note: The data presented in this table is focused on employment by work location rather than by residence. Therefore, it is not directly comparable with employment data sourced from Statistics Canada labour force survey data sets. The data shown in the table excludes jobs with no fixed work addresses and those worked outside Canada. In 2011, these three categories amounted to 372,000 jobs. 30 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

35 Figure 11. Spatial Economic Structure of the GGH Airport Employment Area Tor-York West Employment Area Tor-York East Employment Area TRENDS AND FORECASTS Downtown Toronto Significant Employment Zone Suburban Knowledge Intensive District Source: Derived from The Neptis Foundation, Planning for Prosperity, 2015 Concentration of employment in employment zones There are over 3.5 million jobs in the GGH, spread throughout the region in both urban and rural centres and spread throughout residential/living areas. Over three quarters of jobs within the GGH are located within the GTHA, and almost one third (28%) are concentrated within four large employment zones within, and ringing the City of Toronto (Figure 11). The largest of the employment centres is downtown Toronto. In 2011, it had a total employment figure of over 464,000 (Table 10), and that number grew to over 508,000 in 2015, with an average annual rate of growth of 1.8%. In contrast to the downtown, employment in other areas of Toronto grew at a much slower rate, or even declined. The average rate of employment growth for the City of Toronto - excluding Downtown, North York Centre, Yonge-Eglinton, Scarborough Centre, and Etobicoke Centre - was just 0.3% (Table 11). The second-largest concentration of employment emerges around Pearson International Airport, with a total employment figure of nearly 300,000 jobs. The Airport Employment Area differs from downtown Toronto in terms of its scale, density, and transportation modes. The Airport Employment Area is a 15,230-hectare area that straddles the borders of Toronto, Mississauga, and Brampton, and is roughly bound by Highway 10 to the north, Islington Avenue to the east, Burnhamthorpe Road to the south, and Hurontario Street to the west. It is one of the region s most significant nodes of manufacturing jobs, and is increasingly home to significant concentrations of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM), and finance jobs, particularly within Mississauga s Airport Corporate Centre Part of the discussion in this section is draws on Planning for Prosperity, Globalization, Competitiveness, and Growth Plan for the Golden Horseshoe (2015) by Neptis Foundation, which used detailed census and National Household Survey data for census tracts and census subdivisions to identify employment by industry, and occupation by workplace (rather than by place of residence). SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 31

36 Table 11. Employment Trends within the City of Toronto, by Work Place Location Average Geographic Area Total Growth Annual Growth Rate Share of Toronto 2015 Share of Toronto Downtown 397, , , , % 30.9% 35.8% North York Centre 31,100 38,800 35,000 3, % 2.4% 2.5% Yonge-Eglinton 31,300 15,800 17,390-13, % 2.4% 1.2% Scarborough Centre Etobicoke Centre 16,000 14,700 16, % 1.2% 1.2% 11,400 9,200 9,770-1, % 0.9% 0.7% Rest of City 798, , ,790 36, % 62.1% 58.7% Total Toronto Employment 1,286,300 1,298,300 1,422, , % 38.5% Source: Compiled from City of Toronto employment surveys Note: In 2010 there was a reclassification of Yonge-Eglington and starting from that year, employment for this centre is about half of the figures reported in earlier surveys. The difference/ reduction in Yonge-Eglington employment was reallocated to employment in Rest of City. Transportation infrastructure is central to the success of the Airport Employment Area. Toronto Pearson Airport served 41 million passengers in , and is now the second busiest international passenger airport in North America. There are 49,000 jobs at the Airport itself, and it facilitates an estimated 332,000 jobs across the province, accounting for $42 billion in economic impact. That represents 6% of the total GDP of Ontario. With the right investments, and based on anticipated growth, by 2030, the Airport Employment Area will facilitate 542,000 jobs in the province, and generate $63 billion in economic impact, or 6.8% of the Ontario GDP. 27 The airport and surrounding highway network also facilitate significant logistics and goods movement activities. Toronto Pearson handles roughly half of Canada s annual air cargo (GTAA), and the highway networks within the Airport Employment Area are the highest value truck-based logistics routes in Canada, with segments that carry up to $1.1 billion in commercial goods daily. The next largest employment zone is centred on the 404/407 highway interchange, and boasts a total employment figure of around 139,000 jobs. The fourth zone stretches from the intersection of Highways 400 and 407 east to Keele Street, and south towards Toronto, featuring employment of 106,000 people. These employment zones are referred to as Tor-York East and Tor-York West, respectively. Downtown Toronto and Tor-York East are characterized by a relatively high rate of employment growth of about 1% annually. This is higher than the rate for Tor-York West (an annual rate of 0.5%), the Airport Employment Area (a rate of 0.8%), and the rest of the GGH (a rate of 0.9%). 26 Welcome to the Neighbourhood, GTAA, Annual Report, Toronto Pearson s Economic Impact: A report for the Greater Toronto Airports Authority, Frontier Economics, Quod, MNP LLP, GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

37 The emergence of Suburban Knowledge Intensive Districts A recent report released by the Neptis Foundation titled Planning for Prosperity, identifies a new category of employment areas - Suburban Knowledge Intensive Districts (SKIDs). These areas are suburban in nature but demonstrate significant concentrations of knowledgeintensive industries. What differentiates these areas from traditional suburban office parks is the desire from both employers and employees for higher levels of amenities in the form of restaurants and services, greater emphasis on place-making, and improved transit accessibility. The five GGH SKIDs (Figure 11) identified in the report are Meadowvale Business Park in Mississauga, The Airport Corporate Centre located within the Airport Employment Area in Mississauga, Sheridan Business Park in Mississauga, suburban Waterloo, and a sub-area of the Tor-York East employment zone straddling Richmond Hill and Markham. Based on the data shown in Table 10, SKIDs emerge as having the strongest employment growth in the GGH. Specifically, over the period of 2001 to 2011, employment in the Meadowvale, Sheridan, and Waterloo SKIDs increased by over 50%, or nearly 24,000 jobs, implying an average annual rate of employment growth of 4.2%. The Airport South and Markham SKIDs expanded by over 19,000 jobs over the same period, or by an average annual rate of growth of 1.6%. There is a disconnect between the largest employment zones and transit planning Apart from downtown Toronto, the other large employment areas are not well connected to existing and planned transit, and are suffering from significant congestion. This is increasingly making it difficult for employees to get to work, impacting the movement of goods to and from these areas, and hindering their continued development as economic generators. While many of these areas have historically had low densities, some are beginning to and/or have the potential for significant intensification. This would be supportive of more knowledge-intensive industries, an important growing sector in the region s economy which typically seeks more urban, transit-supportive, and amenityrich environments. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Airport Employment Area. Despite its emergence as Canada s second most significant employment area with nearly 300,000 employees, the Airport Employment Area lacks recognition and planning for the types of higher order transit services that serve the employment population in downtown Toronto (e.g. commuter rail, subway, streetcar, and express bus). It is a comparatively diffuse and lowdensity employment area, and 93% of its employees drive to work. The Tor-York West and Tor-York East employment zones demonstrate similar characteristics. TRENDS AND FORECASTS > Apart from downtown Toronto, the large employment clusters suffer from poor connectivity to higher order transit services. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 33

38 Future Outlooks The review of existing conditions and trends has led to the identification of ten key outlooks that will be important considerations for the Greater Golden Horseshoe Transportation Plan. These outlooks will influence the way people live and work throughout the GGH, and the characteristics of the transportation system required to support their needs. > Barrie - There is an increasing emphasis on more compact development and intensification. 1 Regional growth with concentration in centres The region has grown and is anticipated to continue to grow at a substantial rate. Current projections forecast an increase of approximately 150,000 people per year over the next 25 years. This growth coincides with increased provincial emphasis on more compact growth and intensification, and the targeting of new growth and development to existing built-up areas and designated UGCs, major transit station areas, corridors, and designated greenfields within the region. The implications for the transportation system are threefold. First, the ability to serve and support connectivity between centres will be increasingly important. This connectivity will need to be facilitated in a very urban environment, with less ability for the expansion of the Region s transportation corridors (both street and rail). Within the centres, and increasingly between them, opportunities to facilitate movement from a variety of modes that can take advantage of more diverse origins and destinations and limited space will be required. Second, in existing low density neighbourhoods and employment areas where it is currently more challenging and costly to provide high-quality transit service, it will be important to consider strategic intensification and planning interventions aimed at increasing the transitsupportiveness of these areas and facilitating a greater mix of uses. Third, while growth is increasingly being directed towards existing centres and built-up areas, there will continue to be some development in greenfield areas. Development in these areas is typically less dense and more difficult to serve by transit and other non-vehicular modes than development in centres. Therefore, strategies will be required to adequately serve these areas. 34 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

39 FUTURE OUTLOOKS > Mississauga - Some of the largest clusters of employment are now found within suburban employment areas. > The growth of the on-demand and peer to peer economy is transforming how people access goods and services. 2 Supporting 3 employment clusters Growth of the on demand and peer to peer economy The bulk of growth in numbers of both people and jobs over the last 15 years has occurred in the Inner Ring regional municipalities of Durham, York, Peel, and Halton. The growth in these areas is reflected not only in the growing population of their urban centres, but also in the significant clusters of jobs that have emerged in those locations. Three of the four largest clusters of employment within the GGH are now found in suburban employment areas straddling highways within the Inner Ring municipalities. This trend is reflected in commuting flows (Table 9) that illustrate that there is now more demand for travel within and between Inner Ring municipalities than to and from the traditional employment centre in downtown Toronto. The highways serving these areas are now some of the most congested in the country. There has been a lack of attention to providing quality transit service to the substantial clusters of jobs located in lower density employment centres around the Inner Ring. The result has been a substantial increase in congestion along the street and highway corridors serving these areas. Future planning must recognize the substantial growth in people, and in particular jobs, that has occurred proximate to Toronto, and develop strategies to greatly enhance transit access to and between these areas. An important economic trend impacting the region has been the growth of the on demand and peer to peer economy. While some of today s most recognizable examples include the rise of Uber and Airbnb, and services such as bike and auto share, the trend has the potential to impact a wide range of industries influencing how people move, live and access goods and services throughout the GGH. The growth of the peer to peer and on demand economy has been facilitated by an increasingly digital society, one where people, via their smart phones, have the ability to search for goods and services through an online marketplace and either access them on demand within the community, or have them delivered to their homes. The platform has also resulted in increased emphasis on data sharing, where users have the ability to track and access goods, services, and information (for example about the availability and location of the nearest bike, transit, car, or taxi service). The trend is also helping to blur the lines between the public and private delivery of services (such as transportation) by providing users with a range of both public and private options in a format that presents users with the information needed to make more informed decisions about the options to get to their destinations. From a transportation perspective, this will mean increased emphasis on intelligent transportation systems that both track and share information with users in real-time, and are linked to a full spectrum of mobility options. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 35

40 > The growth of e-commerce is transforming retail patterns. > Kitchener - The growth of knowledge intensive jobs is influencing locational demands of growing job centres. 4 Growth of e-commerce 5 E-commerce has been steadily growing over the last number of years. It is the ability for consumers to access a broad range of goods and services online without having to travel to a physical location to make the purchase. While the growth of e-commerce will have significant implications for the region s transportation system (see Transportation Profile: Future Outlooks) it will also have implications for the region s urban corridors, centres, and retail areas that depend on activity from retail shoppers to support their businesses, enhance street vitality, and support travel demand. Shift to more knowledge intensive employment Over the last 15 years, there has been a significant decline in manufacturing, and a rise in the number of finance, health, education, and service-related jobs. This trend towards more knowledge intensive employment is reflected even within the manufacturing sector itself, where despite the overall decline, there are certain areas such as high-tech manufacturing and food production that have continued to see growth. The shift has implications for the distribution of jobs throughout the region, and therefore the demands on the transportation network. Knowledge intensive jobs tend to favour high quality work environments with a high degree of employee amenities, including access to convenience services and a high degree of accessibility, including by transit, cycling, and walking. An important consideration for the planning of the GGH transportation system will be how to provide access to less transit supportive clusters of knowledge intensive jobs, and support the re-urbanization of these and other transitioning employment areas so that they become more attractive for growing sectors within the knowledge economy. 36 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

41 FUTURE OUTLOOKS > Growth in precarious and low wage employment is creating challenges for job accessibility. > Increased automation is transforming the job market and transportation industry. 6 Growth in precarious and 7 low wage employment Increased automation of jobs and services In tandem with the growth of knowledge intensive employment has been the growth of unskilled, precarious employment throughout the GGH. Many of these jobs are part time and lower wage, requiring people to work two or even three jobs to meet their needs. They are also disproportionately held by women, new immigrants, and younger workers. A challenge resulting from the increase in precarious employment is the provision of adequate transit service. Many of these jobs are spread throughout the GGH where they serve residents in their communities. While some workers may be able to afford a car to reach these destinations, many cannot. For those reliant on transit, it can often mean long commutes traveling between their homes and various places of employment. An important consideration for the planning of the GGH transportation system relates to the ability of the system to support greater equity across the region. This can be facilitated by providing improved transit access to more dispersed areas within the region, and to neighbourhoods with higher concentrations of people engaged in low wage and precarious employment. While the growth of automation is not a new trend, it is continuing to have implications for regional growth and economic development. The increase in automation is resulting in a significant reduction in manufacturing jobs. While some jobs now require fewer people to complete the same tasks, it is also increasingly possible to automate formerly skilled tasks, and have them completed in lowercost jurisdictions. This is facilitated by the global flow of capital and trade agreements. The trend towards automation will also have a prominent role in the evolution of transportation. While some industries such as mining are already employing autonomous vehicles, and driverless trains are deployed on transit systems around the world, the gradual increase and broad adoption of autonomous vehicles has significant implications for the way people and goods move throughout the region. Automation may enable people to forgo car ownership and access cars when they need them through shared services. It may also facilitate new ways of shipping goods including a transition to off-peak delivery. Additionally, it may result in an overall reduction in the number of vehicles needed to serve the transportation needs of the region. For more details, please see the Transportation Profile. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 37

42 >The rapid growth of Pearson Airport creates the need to understand how it and other airports best support and connect with the region. >The aging population will place new demands on the region s transportation system. 8 Rise of Pearson as an 9 international hub The rapid growth of Toronto Pearson Airport into the second busiest international airport in North America has significant implications for the planning of the GGH transportation network. Improving transit connectivity will be critical to the Airport. It will help to alleviate highway congestion that delays commuters and the movement of valuable commercial goods in and around the airport, and will secure the airport as an international hub. Connecting the airport to both local and regional transit services will be required to not only serve the significant concentration of jobs in the Airport area, but to spread the benefits of the connectivity it brings to municipalities and businesses throughout the GGH. The growth of Pearson Airport creates the need to determine how it functions as part of a GGH multiairport system, ensuring that the airports services are complementary to each other and work together to maximize the system s overall capacity. This could mean encouraging more short haul flights from airports such as Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport and Waterloo International Airport, and concentrating cargo at others such as Hamilton International Airport. Future and planned airports such as the Pickering site may also come into play over the longer term. An aging population The growth in the number of seniors is not unique to the GGH, but poses significant challenges to the transportation system. An important consideration will be the ability of the network and region to support the transportation needs of an aging population, a cohort of people who may no longer be able to drive to meet their daily needs (driving to work, shopping, access to services etc.). This will be particularly challenging in the lower density and often auto-dependent Outer Ring of municipalities, an area with the most rapid increase in the population of seniors. The design of streets, sidewalks, and transit systems will all play a role in helping to increase the safety and comfort of an increasingly elderly population. In addition to mobility concerns, the aging population may bring about other shifts which might impact the growth and development of the region. This includes a shift towards more community or home-based delivery of health services, and growth of online retail and services. A trend will be the emphasis on developing more complete communities where residents can meet most of their daily needs within a short walk of their home, and where it is more convenient to live more active lifestyles that will help to extend health and quality of life. 38 GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

43 FUTURE OUTLOOKS > Increased chronic disease has led to a shift to more active and environmentally sustainable modes of transportation. 10 Increasing links between health and transportation One of the most significant trends in health and wellness facing the Greater Golden Horseshoe has been the growth of chronic disease due to the decline of physical activity. The GGH transportation system can play an important role in helping to address some of the issues contributing to chronic disease. The rise of traffic as one of the major contributors to air pollution within the GGH creates the need to develop strategies that can help minimize congestion while promoting a shift towards more environmentally friendly modes of travel. The development of more walkable, pedestrian, and cycling supportive environments is increasingly recognized as an important strategy to support more active and healthy lifestyles that can help prevent the onset of chronic disease in the first place. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 39