Rural & Urban Comparisons In North East England

Transcription

1 Rural & Urban Comparisons In North East England July 2006 Report produced by North East Regional Information Partnership Executive Team North East Regional Information Partnership Stella House Newburn Riverside Newcastle upon Tyne NE15 8NY Tel:

2 Rural And Urban Comparisons In North East England Foreword North East England is a region of contrasts. Close to the economic centres around Tyneside, Wearside and the Tees Valley are more sparsely populated rural areas. There is increasing momentum for policy-makers to consider how to deliver economic growth from the economic cores of Tyne and Wear and the Tees Valley, in ways that benefit the city regions around them. This immediately raises questions of geography: where are the city regions? what is the extent of the rural area? In April 2006 the NERIP Board (consisting of senior officers from One NorthEast, Government Office for the North East, the North East Assembly, the Association of North East Councils and the Regional Skills Partnership) asked the NERIP Executive Team to look at these issues and produce a series of reports. They are: - analysis of economic flows - profile of the rural part of the region - profile of Tyne and Wear City Region - profile of Tees Valley City Region The latter two of these will be produced during autumn The first two were produced during the spring and this report represents the rural profile. The reports will have a number of purposes. The rural one, for example, will serve as the evidence base to accompany the region s submission to the European Commission for the Rural Development Programme. In producing these reports, the team has come to the view that there are effectively three types of area to consider urban, rural, and that portion of the region that is somewhere between the two. We have described this latter portion as fringe or mixed in this report, which contains definitions of each. The report follows the Business People Place format used in a number of regional strategies and in NERIP s State of the Region Report Where possible, comparisons have been made between the urban, rural and fringe/mixed areas, and regional and national comparators. Constraints around data acquisition and classification have prevented us from being able to make comparisons with the rural portion of the rest of the country per se. Thanks are due to Michael Jackson, John Mooney, Rebecca Hulbert and Gavin Bewick of the NERIP Executive Team, who researched and drafted this report. Jon Carling Head of NERIP Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

3 Content Executive Summary 1.0 Introduction 7 Business 2.0 Structure & Performance of the Economy 2.1 Gross Value Added Generated in the North East Business Stock of the Region Business Employment in the North East Land Use in the North East by Businesses 3.1 Spatial Location of Key Employment Centres 20 People 4.0 Society & Living 4.1 Demography of the North East Households in the Region School Education Attainment Health of the Region Economic Activity 5.1 Economic Participation Skills Levels of the Population Individual & Household Incomes Commuting to Work in the North East 44 Place 6.0 Society/Living 6.1 Housing Stock of the North East The House Market in the North East Crime Levels Environment & Infrastructure 7.1 Sites of Special Scientific Interest & Heritage Sites Land Use Profile of the North East Ecological Footprints of the Region Transport Routes Across the North East Access to Services in Rural Areas 62 Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

4 Rural And Urban Comparisons In North East England Executive Summary Definitions North East England is an area of almost 9000 square kilometres, and has just over 2.5 million residents. The region does not divide easily into discrete urban and rural sections, but it is possible to define three general types of areas - urban, rural, and that portion of the region that is somewhere between the two. In this report, this latter portion is described as fringe, or mixed. Fringe refers to those wards not classified by the 2004 Rural & Urban Area Classification as urban, but in which at least 50% of the working age population commuting to an urban ward to work. Mixed is used as a definition where data is not available at ward level, and refers to Local Authority Districts that fall outside both the classifications for rural and urban areas. Business The economy of North East England, measured using GVA per head, has performed below the rate of most other English regions for some years. Indeed, it has the lowest level of GVA per head of any English region. GVA per head in the rural and mixed areas is lower than that in urban areas, and it has tended to grow at a slightly slower rate in recent years, but this masks some of the strengths of the rural economy, and its distinctive nature. Looking at industrial sectors, the public sector provides the largest contribution to GVA for all three geographical types, but the rural and mixed areas produce a significantly higher proportion of their GVA from the retail, distribution and restaurants sector and a lower proportion from business services and manufacturing. The traditional rural sector of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing is more important in the rural areas than urban or mixed, but even in the rural areas only contributes 6% of GVA and 4% of jobs and there are important differences in this even between different parts of the rural area of the North East. One interesting feature of the rural economy is the relatively higher number of businesses per head of population compared to the urban area two and a half times as high, and 25% higher than the national average. 33% of rural businesses are in the distribution, restaurants and retail sector. Businesses in the rural areas tend to be smaller than those elsewhere, as half of them have an annual turnover of under 100,000 whereas only 25% of urban businesses are of that size. It follows that they will have fewer employees, with over 90% of rural businesses being classed as small or micro-businesses, having fewer than 10 employees and fewer than one in a hundred having more than 50 employees. Business start-ups per head of population are 75% higher in rural areas than urban areas, and have consistently been so for some years, and growth in the number of new businesses has also been stronger than in urban areas. What is more, rural businesses are more likely to continue to be in existence after three years than their urban counterparts, and the survival rate for rural businesses is higher than the national average. Perhaps reflecting the higher number of businesses per head, there are more professional and managerial employees in rural firms than in urban ones. Employees of rural companies are also more likely to work part-time, and to work from home. People 6% of the North East s population live in rural areas, 32% in mixed areas and 62% in urban areas. The population of the region has been declining for many years but the rural population has grown by 6.6% since 1981, unlike the urban and mixed areas that have seen a decline. There is some evidence of urban-rural drift, albeit much of it from urban centres to Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

5 mixed areas within easy commuting distance of areas of high job density. ONS projections suggest that the region s population will continue to fall, but that there will be a modest increase in the rural population over the period to In rural areas the population is generally older than in the urban parts of the region, with a significantly higher proportion of people aged over 65 for example. The proportion of the population that is of working age is consequently lower than in urban areas, and ONS are projecting that this proportion will decline further, by six percentage points to 58% of population in 2021 whilst those over 65 will have grown by 60% between 1981 and The proportion of residents of rural areas who are from black and minority ethnic groups is very small. Levels of economic participation are higher in rural areas than urban ones, averaging around 79% in recent years and occasionally being above the national average. It should be noted, however, that there are important variations between different rural areas, with participation levels being as low as 45% in some deprived rural wards. There are significantly fewer claimants of JSA and Incapacity Benefits in rural areas than urban areas, although again there are significant differences between different rural wards and there is evidence to suggestions that the proportion of IB claimants in rural areas has started to rise, whereas in the region as a whole it is falling. Self-employment, at 12.4% of the rural working age population (1:5.5 amongst males), is seven percentage points higher than in mixed or urban areas endorsing the point made earlier about the high number of relatively small rural businesses. Commuters in rural areas are more likely to use their car to travel to work, less likely to use public transport, but also more likely to walk to work. This reflects the composition of settlements people are likely to be able to work in their own village or market town, but if they do not they may have a considerable journey to work in an urban centre. Working age residents of rural areas are more likely to have higher qualifications than their urban counterparts, with the proportions of people with NVQ levels 2 and 4 both being higher in rural areas than urban areas. School educational attainment in rural areas is higher than in urban ones, with schools in the rural part of the North East having already met, on average, the Government s 2008 target for 60% of pupils to attain five or more GCSEs at grades A*-C a significantly better performance than the average for schools in urban areas. Life expectance in rural areas is higher than in urban areas, averaging 76.5 years for men two years above the regional average. Place Much of the rural part of the North East is known to be a pleasant area to live in, and one that people aspire to live in. This may be reflected in the affordability of housing. Residents of rural areas are less likely to be able to afford a property in their own district than residents of urban areas. There are similar proportions of vacant dwellings in rural areas and urban areas, although the proportion in mixed areas is higher. Property sales in rural areas have held up quite strongly in recent years, whereas they have declined in urban and mixed areas since Looking at the assets of the rural part of the North East, there are more heritage sites and greater areas of Sites of Special Scientific Interest than in the rest of the region. If we look at land usage, we find that as might be expected, rural areas have more agricultural, seminatural and marshland than urban areas. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

6 The crime rate in rural areas is lower than elsewhere in the region, and is in decline. Stockholm Environmental Institute s ecological footprint enables comparisons to be made between areas in terms of the per capita consumption of natural resources. These show that, generally, people from rural areas consume more resources than those in urban areas. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

7 1.0 Introduction The purpose of this report is to provide a high level profile of the North East by discussing the contrasts between the rural, urban and mixed areas of the region and using thematic analyses based on the Business People and Place structure featured in the State of the Region Report ( the Regional Economic Strategy and other recent reports produced in the North East. The analysis and interpretation of the data contained in this report is based on two sets of area definitions developed specifically for this series of reports by the NERIP Executive Team. The methodology underpinning the definitions is documented in the report entitled Spatial Analysis of Economic Flows in North East England and is available via NERIP website ( The first sets of definitions are ward based and incorporate the 2004 Rural & Urban Area Classifications developed with cross central departmental collaboration. The criteria used in the NERIP definitions are: - Urban - urban in the 2004 classification. Fringe - not urban in the 2004 classification. At least 50% of workers in the ward commute to an urban ward. Rural - not urban in the 2004 classification. Less than 50% of workers in the ward commute to an urban ward. The definition is easily understood and, as the map below shows, gives an intuitively correct picture the major urban areas being surrounded by a halo of fringe wards. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

8 The predominance of data available for analysis in this report is based at local authority district level, so it was deemed necessary that a district level definition was needed for the region. The summarising for larger areas definition, as illustrated in the above report, utilised the ward-based classifications and enhanced using the following criteria: - Larger areas with a minimum of 87.5% of their population in urban wards are classed as urban. Larger areas with a minimum of 40.0% of their population in rural wards are classed as rural. The remaining larger areas are classed as mixed. The following report provides analysis of relevant data sets than give a high level profile of the North East. The geographical units used in the report are rural, urban and fringe/mixed areas based on wards and districts boundaries as defined above. mixed. The Market Town geographies of the North East are not explicitly represented in this report, however the structure and composition of the Market Towns will affect the classifications of the area in which they are located and their surrounding areas. At district level, 10 of the Market Town are in districts classified as rural, with the remaining four; Crook, Guisborough, Morpeth and Stanhope all in districts classified as At ward level, Alnwick, Amble, Barnard Castle, Haltwhistle, Rothbury, Seahouses and Wooler are located within rural wards, whereas the seven wards surrounding the town of Berwick are classified as urban wards. The market towns of Hexam and Prudhoe cover a mixture of wards, the former having four urban wards and one rural ward, while the latter has five urban wards and one fringe ward. The market towns located within the mixed districts also have varying ward classifications. Crook covers four rural wards and Stanhope covers one rural ward in Wear Valley district, while Morpeth Town covers four wards classified as urban and Guisborough is located in three wards also classified as urban. As the purpose of this report is to provide a high level profile of constituent parts of the region, the detail and data is summarised to the conglomerations of rural, fringe/mixed and urban areas. Further disaggregated data is available at district level and in some cases at ward level. Please contact the Executive Team for further information. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

9 Business 2.0 Performance & Structure of the Economy 2.1 Gross Value Added Generated in the North East Gross Value Added (GVA) is the method used by Government to measure the economic activity and performance of regions in the UK. In 2004, 32bn of GVA was generated by the North East economy, illustrating expansion of over 5.0% on the previous year and an annual average growth of 3.5% since (For further information view NERIP Report ). GVA is calculated using a combination of three different methods, income, production and expenditure. GVA data for our selected geographies is not routinely produced, so the following data has been derived from regional level GVA data for sectors and then apportioned to Urban, Mixed or Rural using the number of employee jobs per sector (ABI). This approach assumes that productivity is constant across each sector irrespective of the location or size of the units. This approach has been used for illustrative purposes and the results should be viewed with caution. By far the largest generation of GVA in the North East is from the urban areas, generating round 70% of the region s GVA, with mixed areas generating about 25% and rural areas contributing about 5% of the regional production. These proportions have remained fairly constant since 1998 with the respective areas generating GVA to the value of 22.5bn, 7.8bn and 1.7bn in % Gross Value Added by Area Type 1998 to 2003 ( millions) 90% 80% Proportion Generated by Area Type 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 17,798 18,781 19,387 20,194 21,417 22,493 Urban Mixed Rural 20% 7,047 6,838 7,231 7,746 7,842 8,357 10% 0% 1,389 1,386 1,347 1,403 1,542 1, Source: NERIP Executive Team, Annual Business Inquiry -Office for National Statistics The economy in the rural areas has expanded by 20% during the period 1998 to 2003 (at market prices), ahead of the rate of growth in mixed areas (19%), but behind the growth in urban areas (26%) and the regional average of 24%. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

10 Gross Value Added by Sector for Area Type 2003 ( millions) Rural Mixed 1,940 1,335 2,167 1, Urban 5,266 5,266 3,924 3,285 1,813 1,419 1, ,040 North East 7,682 6,877 6,376 4,750 2,422 2,191 1, % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Public administration,education & health (SIC L,M,N) Banking, finance and insurance, etc (SIC J,K) Manufacturing (SIC D) Distribution, hotels and restaurants (SIC G,H) Transport and communications (SIC I) Construction (SIC F) Other services (SIC O,P,Q) Energy and water (SIC C,E) Agriculture and fishing (SIC A,B) Source: NERIP Executive Team/ Annual Business Inquiry -Office for National The key sectors for the generation of GVA in each area are Public Sector, Business Services, Distribution & Restaurants & Retail and Manufacturing, which collectively account for approximately 80% of the GVA at the regional level, 26bn in Across all geographies, the public section is the largest sector contributing to GVA generation, accounting for between 22% (Rural) and 24% (Urban) of output. In absolute terms the value of GVA generated from the Public Sector in rural areas is only 7% of that generated in urban areas, while for mixed areas the statistic is 36%. Business Services is the second largest sector generating GVA in urban areas, accounting for 23%, while this sector produces between 16% and 17% of GVA in the rural and mixed areas. The second largest sector in rural areas is the Distribution & Restaurants & Retail sector including tourism, generating 19% of rural GVA, valued at 0.3bn. This sector has a lesser importance to the economies of the mixed and urban areas, but still generate between 14% and 15% of the GVA, 1.2bn and 3.2bn respectively. Manufacturing still plays a key role in the economy of the region, generating over one-fifth of total GVA. Manufacturing is particularly important in the mixed area economy, providing over 26% of the GVA, where as in the rural and urban areas this sector contributes between 17% and 18% of output. The traditional rural sector of Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing generated 0.2bn of GVA output for the North East economy in 2003, equivalent to 1% of the total regional GVA generated. Forty-eight percent of that is generated in rural areas, accounting for only 6% of the total rural GVA output. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

11 2.2 Business Stock of the Region In 2003 it was estimated that the North East economy consisted of a total of 98,960 enterprises 1, of which 66% (65,245) had no employees, five percentage points lower than the national average, and there were 540 (0.5%) companies in the region with employment over 100 individuals. (NB 1 SBS East'!A1) In 2005 the total VAT registered Business Stock in the North East had reached 45,610 an increase of 800 (1.8%) on the previous year and an increase of 2,115 (4.9%) since The majority of VAT registered businesses of the region are registered in urban areas (57%) amounting to 26,055 establishments, with 30% (13,645) in mixed areas and 13% (6,105) registered in rural areas 600 VAT Registered Business Stock Per 10,000 Population by Area Type Number of Businesses Rural Mixed Urban North East England Source: UK Business: Size, Activity & Location - Office for National Statistics At the regional level the number of businesses per 10,000 head of population has grown marginally (2%) since 2000, to a rate of 222, approximately half the national average. Within the North East this rate is greatest in rural areas, with 517 businesses per 10,000 head of population. This rate is not only 25% higher than the national average it is also approximately two and half times the regional average and the average for urban areas. The area with the largest growth in the rate of the statistic over the period has been in the mixed areas, increasing by 3.4% (7 businesses per 10,000 population), while in the rural areas any growth had fallen away by 2004 and in urban areas the growth was similar to the North East rate of 2%. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

12 Economic Structure by Size of Business Sector by Area Type Rural Mixed Urban North East Great Britain % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Distribution, hotels and restaurants (G,H) Public administration,education & health (L,M,N) Construction (F) Transport and communications (I) Energy and water (C,E) Banking, finance and insurance, etc (J,K) Other services (O,P,Q) Manufacturing (D) Agriculture and fishing (A,B) Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2004 The largest sectors by business stock in the rural areas are Distribution Restaurants & Retail 33%, Banking & Finance 21%, Public Sector 10%, Construction 10% and other services at 9%. The first three sectors are the same ranking in all areas across the regional, but with varying importance. Distribution Restaurants & Retail has equal importance in the structure of the economy in rural areas as in urban areas, but in mixed areas it increases to 35%, accounting for 1,975 businesses in rural areas, 14,357 in urban and 6,654 in mixed areas. The Banking & Finance sector is of significant importance in rural areas with over 1,259 businesses, 21% of stock, marginally ahead of the proportion in mixed areas (20% - 3,949). However in urban areas this sector is more dominant, with a 25% share of business stock (11,047), which is however considerably lower than the 31% share of stock at the national level. The Public Sector accounts for 10% of businesses in rural areas (608), which is less than the dependence of the urban (13% - 5,283) and mixed (13% - 2,378) areas, and marginally higher (1 percentage point) than the national average. The sectors of Construction, Other Services and Manufacturing have similar importance to the structure of economies in the urban and mixed areas (8%-9%), while in rural areas the significance of Construction and Other Services are similar, the Manufacturing sector has only a 5% share of businesses. One in two businesses in rural areas (2,810) has a turnover under 100,000 per annum, five percentage points above the national average and 50% more than businesses in the urban areas. Consequently only 5% (270) businesses in rural areas have a turnover in excess of 1m, where as regionally and nationally the average is 10% and in urban areas in the North East it is 12% of businesses. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

13 Businesses by Turnover size ( 000's) by Area Type 230 Rural 1,380 1,430 1, Mixed 2,090 2,970 3,550 1, ,080 Urban 3,160 5,435 6,490 3,345 2, ,170 North East 6,630 9,840 11,620 5,650 3,355 1, ,725 United Kingdom 318, , , , ,430 39,790 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ,000-4,999 5,000 + Source: UK Business: Activity, Size and Location , Office for National Statistics Businesses in rural areas generally have fewer employees that their counter parts, with over 91% of the stock being classed as small or micro (i.e. < 10 employees), some eight percentage points greater than in urban areas, five percentage points in mixed areas and exceeding the national average by three percentage points. Conversely, less than 1% of businesses in rural areas employ greater than 50 employees, whereas the businesses based in urban (3.4%) and mixed (2.4%) areas exhibit employment size proportions that exceed the national average (2.1%) for this band. Businesses by Number of Employees by Area Type Rural 4, Mixed 8,695 1, Urban 15,675 3,625 1,945 1,255 North East 28,860 6,205 3,130 1,940 United Kingdom 1,225, ,430 98,650 55,940 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0-4 Employees 5-9 Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Employees Source: UK Business: Activity, Size and Location 2005, Office for National Statistics Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

14 During 2004 there were 4,275 new VAT businesses registered in the North East, of which 10% were in rural areas, 29% in mixed areas and 61% were located in urban areas of the region. In terms of registration per 10,000 head of population, the highest rate can be found in rural areas with 36 registrations, marginally lower than the national average (39 registrations), but 75% higher than the rates found in urban (20) and mixed (19) areas within the region. This higher registration rate trend is evidently consistent since 2000, and even during the Foot & Mouth crisis of The rate of growth of new business registration has also grown fastest in rural areas since 2002, on average 4% per annum, twice that of growth in mixed areas (average 2% p.a.), while in urban areas there has been on average a 1% p.a. fall in new registrations over the period. Business Registrations per 10,000 Population by Area Type Registrations per 10,000 population Rural Mixed Urban North East England Source: NERIP Executive Team / Small Business Service VAT statistics, 2003 / Office for National Statistics population estimates. The new business registration trends are consistent with earlier business stock analysis illustrating that relative entrepreneurial trends in rural areas are significantly greater than those in the mixed and urban areas, but due to the size of the areas, the absolute number is considerably less significant. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

15 VAT Business Survival Rates 1999 to % 91% 90% 90% 90% 91% 90% 90% 91% 92% 90% 91% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 93% 92% 92% 92% 80% 72% 67% 68% 69% 71% 67% 68% 70% 72% 68% 69% 69% 60% 40% 20% 0% Rural/Mixed 1yr Urban 1yr North East 1yr UK - 1yr Rural/Mixed 3yr Urban 3yr North East 3yr UK - 3ry Source: VAT Statistics, Small Business Service Since 1999 the 1-year survival rate for businesses in rural & mixed areas has been consistently at or above the rate for the national average, whilst also continuing the upward trend since In 2003 the whole of the North East was performing better than the national average on this statistic, if only marginally. Since 1999 the 1-year survival rate for businesses in the rural & mixed areas has been greater than those in urban areas, with the rate of growth since 1999 being two percentage points for both areas. Similarly, the likelihood of a businesses surviving three years past its registration is greatest in the rural/mixed areas at 72% in 2001, some 5 percentage points above the rate for urban areas and above the national average. The recent trends also illustrate that the rural/mixed areas have been consistently out-performing the urban areas and the national average. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

16 2.3 Business Employment In the North East The number of employee jobs in the region in 2004 was reported as 1,006,000 of which 70% (701,000) are based in urban areas, 25% (254,000) in mixed areas and 5% (50,000) in rural areas. The largest sector again, but this time in terms of employee jobs in rural areas is Distribution Hotels & Retail accounting for 28% of jobs, while the Public Sector also accounts for a similar proportion, and Manufacturing and Banking & Finance have 11% each of the employee jobs in the rural economy. Employee Jobs by Sector 2004 by Area Type Rural 13,770 13,738 5,405 5,494 Mixed 83,242 54,313 48,134 27,099 Urban 224, ,459 84, ,808 North East 321, , , ,400 Great Britain 6,872,265 6,418,524 3,092,131 5,193,452 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Public administration,education & health (SIC L,M,N) Distribution, hotels and restaurants (SIC G,H) Manufacturing (SIC D) Banking, finance and insurance, etc (SIC J,K) Other services (SIC O,P,Q) Construction (SIC F) Transport and communications (SIC I) Energy and water (SIC C,E) Agriculture and fishing (SIC A,B) Source: Employee Analysis, Annual Business Inquiry Office for National Statistics Rural employment has a greater dependency on the Distribution Hotels & Retail sector than the national and regional averages, and that of the urban and mixed economies. However the rural areas have significantly less dependency on the Public Sector than the urban and mixed areas with at least 4 percentage points fewer employee jobs in the sector. Banking & Finance are under represented in employee jobs in both rural and mixed areas, with 11% of jobs, approximately half the national average and two-thirds that of the urban areas in the North East. Manufacturing is the third most important sector in mixed areas, accounting for 19% of employee jobs, the largest proportion of manufacturing jobs across the regional geographies and the national average. Agriculture Hunting Forestry & Fishing accounts for 4% of employee jobs in the rural economy in 2004, seven-times the proportion in mixed areas and forty-times higher than the proportion in urban areas. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

17 NB. The above Agriculture Hunting Forestry & Fishing statistic is for employee jobs taken from the Annual Business Inquiry. The employee figure is low due to the predominance of business in rural areas employing fewer than 5 individuals and the higher rates of self employed individuals operating in rural areas. Statistics taken from the Annual Population Survey suggest that using the workplace employment analysis, there are 4,100 individuals employed in the sector in rural areas, 2,700 in mixed areas and 3,200 in urban areas in March The proportion of employment (including self-employment) in Agriculture Hunting Forestry & Fishing sector in rural areas is 7.3%, whereas in mixed areas it is 1.0% and in urban areas 0.4%. The dependency of different rural areas for employment in economic sectors also varies considerably. In 2001 ward based employment rates taken from the Census illustrate that the range of dependency for employment in rural areas in Distribution Hotels & Retail ranges from 14% to 34%, with a median value of 19%. Employment in this sector is most concentrated (greater than 20%) in rural wards is Tynedale, Berwick, Alnwick and Wear Valley. For the Public Sector the range of employment dependencies was 16% to 44%, with a median value of 27%, highest concentrations of residents around Alnwick district (greater than 35%). The range of employment levels in the Manufacturing sector was between 5% and 31% with median value of 11%. Manufacturing is most concentrated i.e. above 20% in wards in predominantly in Teesdale (Barnard Castle), Wear Valley and Tynedale. Banking & Finance has employment dependencies of 6% and 20% of residents, with median of 10%. Banking & Finance employment is concentrated in rural wards in Tynedale, Castle Morpeth and Alnwick districts. Rural Ward Employment Dependencies by Business Sector (2001) 50% = Median 45% 40% % of Resident Employment by Ward 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Agriculture and fishing (A,B) Energy and water (C,E) Manufacturing (D) Construction (F) Distribution, hotels and restaurants (G,H) Transport and communications (I) Banking, finance and insurance, etc (J,K) Public administration,education & health (L,M,N) Other services (O,P,Q) Source: Census 2001, Office for National Statistics NB The above graph uses resident based data and thus, due to commuting factors, is not a wholly true representation of actual employee jobs by ward. However it does enable employment dependencies by business sector to be illustrated. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

18 By far the largest range in employment dependencies by sector is for the traditional rural sectors of Agriculture Hunting Forestry and Fishing, with the range between 1% and 31% of employment. However the median value of only 8%, illustrating that while in some areas that this sector has a significant contribution to local employment i.e. in 6 wards the employment rate is greater than 20% in parts of Berwick, Alnwick and Tynedale in Northumberland and Teesdale and Wear Valley in County Durham, 42% of the wards in rural areas have less than a 5% dependency of the sector i.e. in wards in Alnwick, Castle Morpeth, Tynedale, Wear Valley and Teesdale. Analysis of the workplace based employment occupations illustrates a larger proportion (17%) of Managers & Senior Officials employed in rural areas, than in both the mixed and urban areas (13%) and above the regional average (13%). Similarly, the proportion of Skilled Trades Occupations in rural areas also exceeds the urban (12%) and mixed (15%) areas, with 20% of employment. The smallest occupational class in rural areas is Sales & Customer Service Occupations with 6% of employment, half that of the proportion in urban areas. Employment Occupations by Area Type (Workplace Analysis) 2005 Rural 8,600 5,400 7,000 6,000 9,900 5,100 3,200 4,800 6,500 Mixed 28,800 27,400 29,200 28,100 32,800 24,500 22,400 30,500 34,900 Urban 88,800 88,600 99, ,800 79,600 57,500 82,000 59,900 92,100 North East 126, , , , ,300 87, ,600 95, ,500 Great Britain 4,060,700 3,413,600 3,794,200 3,419,300 3,023,700 2,079,700 2,135,800 2,036,300 3,124,500 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Managers and Senior Officials Professional Occupations Associate Prof & Tech Occupations Administrative and Secretarial Occupations Skilled Trades Occupations Personal Service Occupations Sales and Customer Service Occupations Process, Plant and Machine Operatives Elementary occupations Source: Annual Population Survery March 2005, Office for National Statistics In 2004, less than two-thirds of the employee jobs in rural areas are on a full-time basis, which is the lowest rate in the region and below the national average of 68.1%. The proportion of full-time jobs in urban areas is the highest rate at 68.6%, with the mixed areas 0.4 percentage points lower. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

19 Employee Full-time / Part-time Analysis by Area Type 100% 90% 80% % Proportion of Workers 60% 50% 40% 30% % 10% 0% Rural Mixed Urban North East England Full-time Part-time Source: Annual Business Inquiry Employee Analysis, 2004, Office for National Statistics Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

20 3.0 Land Use in the North East by Businesses 3.1 Spatial Location of Key Employment Centres Following the 2001 Census the NERIP Executive Team commissioned a project that identified the largest fifty-one-employment centre of the North East using the commuting destination field from the Special Workplace Statistics data set. Employment in the region is dispersed widely throughout the region; these fifty-one centres account for approximately one-third of all employment places in the North East. This analysis illustrates that there are two of the top fifty-one employment centres in the rural areas, i.e. the market towns of Hexham and Barnard Castle. The Hexham centre is the larger of the two with 2,826 employment places, largely in the Retail & Leisure sector. Barnard Castle has 1,867 employment places and is characterised by light industry. The mixed areas of the region contain twelve of the fifty-one largest employment centres, accounting for 68,000 employment places. The largest is Durham City with 19,483 employment places engaged in the majority of sectors e.g. health, education, public sector offices, private sector offices and retail & leisure. Illustrating the variety of sectors in the mixed areas, the next two largest centres are at Redcar/Wilton/Lazenby/Teesport and Peterlee, with 10,830 and 8,578 employment places respectively. These have been classified as Industry (heavy & light) and public sector offices for the former and private sector offices for Peterlee. Thirty-seven of the largest employment centres are in urban areas, with the largest by far being Newcastle City Centre with over 61,000 employment places, and employment covering all sectors apart from light and heavy industry. Middlesbrough Town Centre is the second largest employment centre in North East with approximately 24,000 employment places, covering all the sectors from retail & leisure to industry (heavy). Further analysis of the employment centres is found in Commuting & Workplace Analysis of the North East Report Phase 2 on the NERIP website ( Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

21 No Name No Name No Name No Name 1 Ashington 14 Elswick 28 Sunderland - City Centre 41 Darlington - Morton Park 2 Morpeth Town centre 15 Newcastle Business Park 29 Sunderland General Hospital 42 North Tees General Hospital 3 Blyth Town Centre 16 Newcastle City Centre 30 Sunderland - Doxford Park 43 Stockton - Centre/Teesdale/Portrack 4 Cramlington 18 Byker 31 Durham - City Centre 44 Stockton-Preston Farm/Bowesfield 5 Newcastle Airport 19 Derwenthaugh/Metrocentre 32 Durham - Dragonville & Belmont 46 Billingham -Seal Sands 6 Killingworth 20 Team Valley 33 Peterlee NW, SW & Bracken Hill 47 Hartlepool -Graythorpe 7 North Tyneside- New York 21 Gateshead Town centre 34 Spennymoor - Green Lane & Merrington Lane 49 Middlesborough - Town centre & Middlehaven 8 North Tyneside Hospital 22 Gateshead Queen Elizabeth Hospital 35 Aycliffe Industrial Park 50 Middlesbrough-James Cook University Hospital 9 North Shields -Town centre 23 South Shields Town centre 36 Bishop Auckland Town Centre 51 Redcar - Town centre 10 Silverlink 24 South Tyneside District Hospital 37 Hartlepool - Town Centre & Longhill 52 Redcar - Wilton-Lazenby-Teesport 11 Tyne Park View 25 Washington Town Centre 38 Barnard Castle - Harmire 53 Hexham 12 Longbenton/Freeman 26 Washington East 39 Darlington Memorial Hospital 55 Teeside Industrial Estate 13 Gosforth High Strret -Regent Centre 27 Sunderland - Southwick 40 Darlington - Town Centre Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

22 People 4.0 Society & Living 4.1 Demography of the North East At the time of the last census in 2001, the population of the North East was 2,515,510, of which 82.9% of residents lived in urban wards, 11.6% in fringe wards and 5.5% in rural wards. The density of population is clearly highest in urban areas, however the number of the population in each ward varied considerably, both between and within area types. In rural areas, the median size of wards is 1,500 people, less than half the size of fringe wards and one-third of the median in urban areas. The largest wards in rural areas are in Redcar & Cleveland (2 wards circa 7,000), Wear Valley (3 wards circa 4,000) and one ward each in Alnwick, Castle Morpeth, Tynedale and Wear Valley with 3,500 residents. The smallest wards of between 550 and 750 residents are in Teesdale district, while one ward from Tynedale and two from Berwick have between 752 and 780 residents. Ward Level Population Size by Area Types, 2001 Median 20,000 16,000 12,000 Population 8,000 4,000 3,615 4,974 1,498 0 Rural Fringe Urban Source: NERIP Executive Team / Census 2001 The smallest wards, in terms of population in urban areas are from Berwick and Tynedale districts with less than 1,000 residents. Conversely the largest wards are in Sunderland (circa 18,000 residents), Stockton (circa 16,000) and Newcastle (circa 15,500). Since 1981 the population in rural areas has been steadily increasing and by 2004 the population was estimated to be 142,800 residents in rural districts. The population growth in rural areas was 6.6% over the period amounting to circa 9,000 residents, with the rate of change increasing more rapidly in the latter years. Conversely the populations in the mixed and urban areas have been declining, with net falls over the period from 1981 to 2004 being 24,000 and 76,000 respectively. The resulting 2004 populations are 2.9% and 4.5% lower than the respective 1981-population level. Since 2001 the rate of decline in the urban and mixed areas has slowed down. In fact the rate of decline in mixed areas has reduced from a rate of 3.4% to -2.9% by 2004 with increased inward migration from urban areas. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

23 Population Estimates and Change by Area Type (1981 to 2004) 10,000,000 1,000,000 25% 1,674,300 1,634,200 1,599,900 1,598,500 20% 828, , , ,100 Total Population 100,000 10,000 1, , , % -1.7% 140, % -3.4% 142,800 15% 10% 6.6% 5% 0% -2.9% Percentage change since % -4.4% -4.5% -5% 1-10% Rural Mixed Urban Rural Change Mixed Change Urban Change Source: Population Estimates - Office for National Statistics Findings of a recent study into regional internal migration by the NERIP Executive Team concluded that there was evidence of a drift from urban centres to locations in rural/fringe areas. However it did identify that urban centres such as Newcastle and Middlesbrough had lost their appeal to internal migrants from surrounding areas, with preferred destinations being more on the fringe of the cities than in the cities. In the case of Newcastle areas such as Consett, Prodhoe and Morpeth were offering a perceived better value for money. (A Study of Recent Population Migration Trends These findings are re-iterated below with large migration flows between the urban and mixed areas in 2003, with a net outward migration from urban areas of 2,600 individuals and a net inward migration into mixed areas of 1,900. Rural areas are net importers of population from both the mixed (150) and urban (600) areas, but the flows are relatively small compared to the patterns in the other areas. Internal Migration Flows 2003 Destination Origin Rural Mixed Urban Rural 1,170 1,240 Mixed 1,320 8,560 Urban 1,880 10,580 Source: NERIP Executive Team/National Health Service Central Register The working age population (15 to 64 year old) in rural areas is the smallest within the region and accounts for 64% of the total population, with 22% of the working age over 50 years of age. In contrast 66% of the population in urban and mixed areas (and regional average) are of working age, with the proportion of over 50s larger in mixed areas at 20%. The proportion of 15 to 49 year olds in rural areas is seven percentage points lower than the national average and four percentage points higher for the over 50s population. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

24 Population Proportions of Key Agebands by Area Type (2004) Rural 5% 12% 42% 22% 15% 5% Mixed 5% 12% 46% 20% 13% 4% Urban 5% 12% 49% 17% 12% 4% North East 5% 12% 48% 18% 13% 4% England 6% 13% 49% 18% 12% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 to 4 years 5 to 14 years 15 to 49 years 50 to 64 years 65 to 79 years 80+ years Source: Population Estimates - Office for National Statistics The proportion of the under 15 year olds in rural areas is identical in all areas of the region at 17%, but marginally lower than the national average. Twenty-percent of the population in rural areas is over 65 years of age, with 5% over 80 years - two to three percentage points higher than the other areas for the 65 to 79 year olds and 1 percentage point (25%) higher for over 80s. The North East has suffered significant levels of outward migration from the region over the last twenty years or so that has been reflected in the total population estimates illustrated above. However in recent years there are signs that the population outflows are reducing and the net migration statistics suggest a modest influx of around two thousand individuals per annum into the region. The population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are based on the past trends and are therefore conservative about future population growth in the North East, thus projecting a further decline of population to 2,489,000 in More upbeat population projections on the region s future have been produced by the North East Assembly and published in the Regional Spatial Strategy, which illustrate a population increase to 2,575,000 by (RSS Technical Paper: Housing/Sustainable Communities Analysis of the data from ONS illustrates that by 2028 the rural population is projected to be 146,300 individuals, just less than 10% of the urban population and one-fifth of the mixed areas population. The projected population in rural areas is expected to continue to increase, by 3,500 over the period, but at a rate of growth less that the observed between 1981 and The projected populations for urban and mixed areas are expected to decline a further 2.1% and 3.3% by 2028 respectively, with the mixed areas declining more quickly than the urban areas reversing the previous trends. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

25 Population Projections and Change by Area Type (2004 to 2028) 10,000,000 1,598,500 1,583,100 1,574,700 1,564,800 20% 1,000, , , , ,600 15% Total Population 100,000 10,000 1, Estimates 142, , % -1.4% Projections , % -1.5% -2.3% , % Rural Mixed Urban Rural Change Mixed Change Urban Change 10% 5% 0% -2.1% -3.3% -5% Percentage Change since 2004 Source: Population Projections 2003 Based - Office for National Statistics As discussed earlier, the proportion of the population in rural areas classed as working age, in 2004 was 64% of the total population. This proportion is projected to decrease further by 2021 to 58% of the population, of which 25% will be between 50 and 64 years old. The under 15 year old age band, will also continue to decline in proportion, with the under 5s representing 4% of the population, down one-third over the period 1981 to 2021 and the 5 to 14 years old representing 9% of the population, down 25% since Proportion of Rural Populations by Age band (1981 to 2021) 100% 3% 4% 4% 6% 8% 90% 80% 15% 14% 14% 17% 21% 80+ years 70% 18% 17% 21% 65 to 79 years Population Proportion 60% 50% 40% 30% 45% 46% 43% 25% 38% 25% 33% 50 to 64 years 15 to 49 years 20% 5 to 14 years 10% 0% 13% 12% 12% 10% 9% 0 to 4 years 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% Source: Population Estimates & Population Projections 2003 Based - Office for National Statistics Conversely the proportion of the population in rural areas aged over 65 years old will increase by 60% from 18% in 1981 to 29% of the total population in 2021, with the proportion of the over 80s nearly tripling to 8% over the period. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

26 Breakdown of Black and Minority EthnicPopulations by Area Type % Other Black Proportion of the Black and Minority Ethnic Population 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4% 7% 12% 8% 11% 10% 19% 14% 17% 22% 28% 25% 8% 7% 2% Rural Mixed Urban Caribbean White and Black African African White and Black Caribbean Other Mixed Other Asian Other Ethnic Group White and Asian Chinese Bangladeshi Indian Pakistani Source: Census Office for National Statistics According to the Census 2001, there were 60,000 individuals, approximately 2.4% of the region s population, classed as belonging to a non-white ethnic minority compared to the national average of 8.7%. It was estimated that in 2001 there were approximately 800 individuals from ethnic minorities resident in rural areas, of which 22% were Chinese, 19% were White & Asian mixed and 12% White & Black Caribbean. In urban areas the ethnic population was estimated to be 57,000 individuals with the largest group (25%) being from the Pakistani communities, 17% from Indian communities and 11% from the Bangladeshi communities. The largest proportion of the 3,000 ethnic minorities residing in the mixed areas of the region is Indian at 28% of the non-white ethnic population. 4.2 Households in the Region In 2003 it was estimated that there were 1,090,000 households in the North East, of which 5.5% (61,000) were in rural areas, 31% (341,000) in mixed areas and 63.5% in urban (689,000), consistent with the population proportions discussed above. The projected numbers of households for the region is to increase to 1,212,000 by 2026, with a rate of growth from 2003 being at highest in rural areas at 16% with an increase of 10,000 households. The growth in the number of households in mixed areas is projected to be 12% over the period to 2026, increasing by 34,000 on the 2003 figure, while in urban areas projected growth is 10% growth, increasing by 70,000 households. The increase in household numbers over the project period is due to a variety of reasons including living habits and aging population. As illustrated earlier the proportion of the over 65-year-old population in rural areas is set to increase by 60% to 2021, combined with the decreasing household size. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

27 Numbers of Households by Area Type (1996 Based) 10,000, % 1,000, , , % Number of Households 100,000 10,000 1, , ,000 60,000 72,000 Estimate Projection 16% 12% 10% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% Percentage Change since % 2% % Rural Mixed Urban Rural Change Mixed Change Urban Change Source: Department for Communities and Local Government The analysis of the household types illustrates that in all areas the largest proportion of households contain a married couple, with this type of household representing 53% of the total households in rural areas and combined with the co-habiting category, the proportion increases to 59% in 2003, above the national average. These two categories represent the lowest proportion of household in urban areas at 52% of total households, even below the national average. Household Types by Area % 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 80% 4% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7% 6% 8% 7% 10% Other Multi-person Proportion of Total Households 60% 40% 31% 30% 33% 32% 31% Lone Parent Cohabiting Couple 20% 53% 50% 44% 47% 46% One Person Married Couple 0% Rural Mixed Urban North East England Source: Department of Communities and Local Government The proportion of single person household is lowest in mixed areas with 30% of households, whereas in rural areas it is marginally higher at 31%, equal to the national average. The proportion of lone parent households is greatest in urban areas at 8% of households, twice the rate in rural areas, greater than the regional average and one-third greater than the national average. Collectively the single adult categories account for 41% of households in urban areas, 36% in mixed areas and in rural 34%. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

28 4.3 School Education Achievement The proportion of successful candidates attaining 5 A*-C grades at GCSE level in schools was the highest in rural areas and was approximately 60% of candidates, a third higher than the rates in other areas of the region and seven-percentage points higher than the national average. The proportion of candidates achieving 5 A*-G grades in rural areas was also the highest in the region at 93.4%, six-percentage points ahead of the rates for the urban and mixed areas, and the regional average. School GCSE Performance by Area Type (2002 / 3) 100% 93.4% 87.3% 87.6% 87.8% 88.8% Proportion Candidates Registered for Examination 75% 50% 25% 59.5% 46.3% 46.0% 46.8% 52.9% 3.4% 6.0% 6.3% 6.1% 5.2% 0% Rural Mixed Urban North East England 5 A* - C 5A* - G No Passes Source: Local Authority GCSE Performance Tables, Department for Education and Skills Conversely the level of no passes in rural areas is considerably lower than elsewhere in the region at 3.4% of candidates. 4.4 Health of the Region Life expectancy at birth is a theoretical measure derived from death rates of different age groups within the current population. Using the most recent data, the regional average life expectancy of someone born in is 74.7 years for males and 79.6 years for females. The regional average is 1.5 years below the national average for males and 1.3 years for females. Life expectancy for males is greatest on average in rural areas at 76.5 years with local authority district rates ranging from 76.5 to 77.8 years, all above the national average. The average life expectancy for newborn children in mixed areas is 75.3 years, with local authority district range of 73.7 to 77.5 years, with only two districts, Durham City and Castle Morpeth having rates above the national average. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

29 Life Expectancy at Birth by Area Type Local Authority District Mixed Urban Rural Alnwick Berwick-upon-Tweed Teesdale Tynedale Darlington Gateshead Hartlepool Middlesbrough Newcastle upon Tyne North Tyneside South Tyneside Stockton-on-Tees Sunderland Blyth Valley Castle Morpeth Chester-le-Street Derwentside Durham Easington Redcar and Cleveland Sedgefield Wansbeck Wear Valley NORTH EAST ENGLAND Females Males Life Expectancy (Years) Source: Clinical & Health Outcomes Knowledge Base- National Health Service The lowest average rate for life expectancy at birth for newborn males is in urban areas at 74.8 years. The local authority district rate range is from 73.4 years to 75.5 years, with no value exceeding the national average. The life expectancy at birth of newborn females in rural areas is on average 82.1 years, with the range being from 81.4 to 82.7 years at district level and all rates exceeding the national average. The average rates for mixed and urban areas are 79.6 years and 79.3 years respectively. Only one of these districts, in a mixed area exceeded the national average life expectancy and that was Castle Morpeth (81.1 years). The life expectancy at birth illustrated at ward level provides additional analysis on this topic. The median of the data in rural wards is greatest at 79.2 years, compared to the fringe (76.1 years) and urban (76.8 years). The range of values for life expectancy at birth in rural wards is between 84.6 years and 75.3 years (i.e. range of 9.3 years), with the wards with highest levels of life expectancies spread across a number of districts in Northumberland (Alnwick, Berwick, Castle Morpeth and Tynedale) and County Durham (Derwentside and Wear Valley). The highest level of life expectancy at birth in the North East can be found in the urban ward of West Park in Darlington at 84.9 years, followed closely behind with wards from Durham City, Wansbeck and Tynedale in Northumberland and wards from the unitary authorities of Middlesbrough, Stockton, Redcar & Cleveland and Harlepool all in the top ten urban wards. The urban wards also contain some of the lowest level of level expectancy in the North East; in fact sixty-three of the lowest 66 wards are in urban areas (i.e. less than 74.6 years). Twenty of urban wards are in Tyne Wear, twenty-six in Tees Valley, six in Northumberland and eleven in County Durham. The range of values of life expectancy for urban wards is between 67.8 years and 84.9 years. The range of values in the fringe wards is less than the urban areas, with life expectancy at birth ranging between 70.4 years and 84.1 years. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

30 Ward Level Life Expectancy at Birth of Persons by Area Type = Median 85 Life Expectancy in years Rural Fringe Urban Source: Experimental Ward - Level Life Expectancy Statistics, , Office for National Statistics Life expectancy at birth for a ward in is an estimate of the average number of years a newborn baby would survive if he or she experienced the particular ward s agespecific mortality rates for that time period throughout his or her life. The figure reflects mortality among those living in the ward in , rather than mortality among those born in each area. It is not therefore the number of years a baby born in the ward in could actually expect to live, both because the death rates of the area are likely to change in the future and because many of those born in the ward will live elsewhere for at least some part of their lives. Life expectancy at birth is also not a guide to the remaining expectation of life at any given age. For example, if female life expectancy was 80 years for a particular ward, life expectancy of women aged 75 years in that area would exceed 5 years. This reflects the fact that survival from a particular age depends only on the mortality rates beyond that age, whereas survival from birth is based on mortality rates at every age. Further information on definitions is available via Ward Level Life Expectancy at Birth is a new experimental data set from the Office of National Statistics. Further information on the source and consultation is available via Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

31 5.0 Economic Activity 5.1 Economic Participation The working age population of the North East is estimated to be 1,570,500 individuals in 2005, of which nearly 75% are classed as economically active i.e. an employee, self employed, on a government training scheme or registered unemployed. Approximately 25% of the working age population are therefore classed as economically inactive. NB The following set of charts illustrating trend data from Mar 1999-Feb 2000 to Apr 2004-Mar 2005 utilises the Local Labour Force Survey data for the first five data points then the Annual Population Survey. The Annual Population Survey has improved district level sample sizes that enable smaller confidence intervals to be calculated and thus improved estimates of the population to be made. A consequence of this change of survey could be a step change in the data trends that could be misinterpreted as a real change in the trend, rather than an improvement in the estimate of the rate. This approach has been included in this report to provide a contemporary set of figures and a recent trend. Caution should be used when interpreting the charts. 84% Working Age Economic Activity Rates by Area Type 82% Proportion of Working Age Population (%) 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 79.0% 78.9% 78.4% 77.3% 74.9% 74.4% 74.8% 74.4% 73.6% 72.8% 70% Mar 1999-Feb 2000 Mar 2000-Feb 2001 Mar 2001-Feb 2002 Mar 2002-Feb 2003 Mar 2003-Feb 2004 Apr Mar 2005 Rural Mixed Urban North East England Source: Local Labour Force Suvey & Annual Population Survey- Office for National S i i The economic activity rate in rural areas has been the greatest within the region for a considerable period of time at around 79% of the working age population and at times the rate has been estimated to be above the national average. However there is evidence of a marginal decrease in the rate since In 2005 the economic activity rate for the urban and mixed areas were between two-and-half and three percentage points below the rural statistic. The trend in the mixed areas has recently recovered following fluctuations from the earlier higher rate of 74.4%, whereas the trend in urban areas has seen a steady improvement over the period to 74.4%. Data from the Census 2001 help illustrate the range of economic activity rates for wards of the North East by area type, with the median in rural areas being the greatest at 65.3% of the Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

32 population, two percentage points above the median in fringe areas (63.3%) and four percentage points above the statistics for urban areas (61.3%). Ward Level Distrbution of Economic Activity Rates by Area Type = median 75 Proportion of Working Age Population Rural Fringe Urban 0 Source:Census 2001, Office for National Statistics However the range in economic activity rates are significantly varied across the region. In rural areas the range of rates is from 44.8% to 74.1% (29.3 percentage point), with only five wards of the eighty-two wards below 57.8%, with pockets of low rates in Teesdale, Castle Morpeth, Alnwick (Amble) and in Redcar & Cleveland. The range in the fringe areas is smaller than in rural areas at 23.5 percentage points with values between 47.9% and 71.4% of the working age population. The highest being in Darlington and the lowest being predominantly in Easington, along with Chester le Street. The urban areas provide the extremes of the region with the largest range of rates, some 60.9 percentage point difference between 22.5%, the lowest in any part of the region and 83.4% of the working age population, the highest in any part of the region. However there are only three wards below the rate of 43.7%, two of which are in Durham City. Adjusting for the student effect, the lowest rates of economic activity are found in Moorside in Newcastle at 40% and Middlehaven in Middlesbrough at 45%. In 2005, the rate of employment for the rural areas was again significantly higher than those of the mixed and urban areas, whilst the average rate itself reached a low of 74.5%, down from a high of 78% of the working age population in For the majority of the period 2000 to 2005, the employment rate for the rural areas was in excess of the national average, although the latter decline in the trend has equalised it. The rate for the mixed areas rallied to 70.9%, 3.6 percentage points below the rural rate, following an upturn in trend in The employment rate in urban areas was 69.6% in 2005, 4.9 percentage points below the rural rate. Similarly with the rate for economic activity, the employment rate in urban areas is showing an increasing trend over the period, approximately five percentage points higher than in Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

33 Working Age Employment Rates by Area Type 80% Proportion of the Working Age Population (%) 75% 70% 65% 60% 74.4% 74.0% 68.7% 66.6% 65.0% 74.7% 74.5% 70.9% 70.3% 69.6% 55% Mar 1999-Feb 2000 Mar 2000-Feb 2001 Mar 2001-Feb 2002 Mar 2002-Feb 2003 Mar 2003-Feb 2004 Apr Mar 2005 Rural Mixed Urban North East England Source: Local Labour Force Suvey & Annual Population Survey- Office for National Statistics Male employment in rural areas ended the period at 77.5% of the male working age population, following a similar trend to the total working age population, down from a peak in 2003 of 82.1%. The differential of the rates between the rural and the urban and mixed areas for males is similar to total working age population, with the employment rates in urban and mixed areas being 72.6% and 74.3% respectively, and following similar trend trajectories. The employment rate for females in 2005 for rural areas is 71.4%, some 6.1 percentage points lower than the male rate. The rate for female employment has been static for the last couple of years, following a five-percentage point decline in , around the time of the Foot & Mouth Disease crisis. However, the rate for female employment is still the highest in the region, some four-percentage points above the rate for the mixed areas (67.4%) and 4.9 percentage points above the urban areas (66.5%). Female employment in urban areas declined marginally in 2004, down 1 percentage point on 2003 and against the male trend, but appears to have recovered again by The above analysis of employment rates includes both categories of employees and those self-employed. Analysing further the self-employed individuals, 12.4% of the working age population of rural areas in 2005 are considered to be self-employed, some seven percentage points above the statistics for both the mixed and urban areas of the region. The recent trends for both the urban and mixed areas have been relatively static since 2000, with between approximately five and six percent of the working age population classed as self employed. The trend for the rural areas however has been more erratic, with a decline in 2002 to 11%, followed by a sharp increase in 2003 to 15.7% of the working age population, before falling back to 12.4% in Throughout the period the rate for self-employment in the rural areas has remained at least 2.2 percentage points above the national average. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

34 Working Age Self Employment Rates by Area Type 18.0% 15.0% Proportion of the Working Age Population (%) 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 11.5% 8.8% 6.0% 5.7% 5.7% 12.4% 9.3% 5.8% 5.5% 5.4% 3.0% 0.0% Mar 1999-Feb 2000 Mar 2000-Feb 2001 Mar 2001-Feb 2002 Mar 2002-Feb 2003 Mar 2003-Feb 2004 Apr Mar 2005 Rural Mixed Urban North East England Source: Local Labour Force Suvey & Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics In 2005, the rate for self-employment amongst males in rural areas was 1:5.5 (18.1%), more than twice the rate in both mixed and urban areas (8.3% and 8.2% respectively) and more than five-percentage points greater than the national average of 13.2%. Self-employment amongst females is only a third of the rate of males, at 6.2% of the female working age population. However self-employment in females in rural areas is still nearly three times the rate for the mixed and urban areas (2.4%), over twice the regional average (2.6%) and 1.6 percentage points above the national average. Working Age Self Employment Rates by Gender by Area Type % 18.1% 15% 13.2% Working Age Population % 10% 12.4% 6.2% 8.3% 8.2% 5.5% 5.4% 5.8% 8.8% 9.1% 5% 4.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 0% Rural Mixed Urban North East United Kingdom Self Employed Male Self Employed Female Self Employed Source: Annual Population Survey- Office for National Statistics Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

35 The level of International Labour Organisation (ILO) unemployment in the North East has fallen significantly in recent years. Since 2000, the statistic has fallen by around 3.5 percentage points, while nationally the fall was around 1.1 percentage points. The unemployment rate within the North East still remains higher than the national average by over 1.3 percentage points, but the gap has been closing. NB International Labour Organisation (ILO) unemployment rate is calculated as the number unemployed divided by the economically active population. This indicator is the internationally accepted measure of unemployment. However for comparative purposes with other Labour Market indicators, the measure of unemployment as a proportion of working age population has also been included. The fall in unemployment in the North East accounted for an estimated 38,000 individuals, around 2.4 percentage points of the working age population. In 2005 the number of unemployed as a proportion of the working age population stood at 4.5%, 0.8 percentage points above the national average. Unemployment Rates For North East 10.0% 10.0% 9.5% Proportion of Working Age Population (%) 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.9% 4.6% 6.0% 4.5% 3.7% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% ILO - Proportion of Economically Active Population 0.0% Mar 1999-Feb 2000 Mar 2000-Feb 2001 Mar 2001-Feb 2002 Mar 2002-Feb 2003 Mar 2003-Feb 2004 Apr Mar 2005 North East WAP Unemployment England WAP Unemployment North East ILO Unemployment England ILO Unemployment 0.0% Source: Local Labour Force Suvey & Annual Population Survey- Office for National Statistics Unemployment in rural areas is the lowest in the region at 2.8% of the working age population and is 0.9 percentage points below the national average. Similarly the rates for both males and females are the lowest in the region and below the national average. Male unemployment is greatest in urban areas at 5.7% of the working age population, approximately twice the rate in rural areas and 0.5 percentage points above the regional average. Female unemployment is also highest in urban areas at 4.0% of the working age population, two-third the rate of urban males and one-third higher than females in rural areas. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

36 Working Age Unemployment Rates by Area Types % Proportion of the Working Age Population (%) 6% 4% 2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 4.0% 4.7% 3.3% 4.9% 5.7% 4.0% 4.5% 5.2% 3.7% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 0% Rural Mixed Urban North East United Kingdom WAP Total WAP Male WAP Female Source: Annual Population Survey- Office for National St ti ti An alternative way of measuring unemployment is through the numbers of individuals on unemployment benefits i.e. Job Seekers Allowance (JSA). These individuals are classed as economically active because they are unemployed but looking for work and are available to work. The trend lines in the box in the lower half of the chart below relate to JSA claimants and illustrate that the proportion of the working age population on JSA benefits is lowest in rural areas and has been declining, by over 50% to 1.3% during the period of 2000 to The highest JSA claimant rate has been in urban areas and here too the rate had been declining prior to 2004, with a marginal increase in The increase in JSA claimant rates in the latter year of the period is reflected both at the regional and national level, but is greatest in the mixed areas, although in 2005 the rate in mixed areas (2.7%) remains 0.5 percent points below the urban areas and 1.4 percentage points above the rural areas. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

37 Working Age Income Replacement Benefit Rates by Area Type 15.0% Proportion of the Working Age Population 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 12.4% 11.6% 11.3% 11.5% 10.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.1%. 6.9% 4.7% 4.3% 3.8% 3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% Rural JSA Mixed JSA Urban JSA North East JSA Great Britain JSA Rural IB Mixed IB Urban IB North East IB Great Britain IB Source: Benefit Data 5% Sample- Department for Work & Pensions NB The above statistics for Incapacity Benefits (IB) includes all individuals on IB and Severe Disablement Allowance, and including all who may also be receiving Income Support (IS) and Disability Living Allowance A second income replacement benefit is the benefit that is paid due to ill health. In recent years the focus of attention has been on the claimants of the Incapacity Benefits as some of those claimants might be capable of being in the labour market pool, given the appropriate employment opportunities and condition management. IB claimant rates in rural areas are the lowest within the region and below the national average. However since 2003 there is evidence to suggest that there has been a marginal increase in the rate of claimants. In 2005 the proportion of the working age population in rural areas claiming IB was 6.9%, two-thirds of the rate in urban areas (10.6%) and 60% of the rate in mixed areas (11.3%), which is the highest in the North East. Recent trends in the rate of IB claimants for the mixed and urban areas shows evidence of falls in both areas, with a fall in rates since 2002 of 1.2 and 1.0 percentage points respectively. These improvements come of the back of significant publicity and government initiatives to address the growing numbers including the national Department for Works & Pension target to reduce IB claimants by one-million. The scatter graph of the IB claimants at ward level illustrates that the median proportion of the population claming benefits in rural areas is 6.2% of the working age population, the lowest in the region, some 3.7 percentage points lower than the fringe areas and 4.7 percentage points below the urban rate. The lowest rates i.e. less than 4% of the working age population in rural wards (12 of them) are in the districts of Alnwick, Tynedale, Castle Morpeth and Teesdale, whereas the areas with the highest rates of IB claimants (maximum of 15.7%) can be found in Teesdale, Weardale and Redcar & Cleveland. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

38 The median proportion of IB claimants in urban wards is 10.9% of the working age population, with the lowest rates (18 less than 4%) spread across 9 districts, are found in Durham City, Chester le Street, Stockton, Darlington, Middlesbrough, Redcar & Cleveland, Newcastle, North and South Tynesides. The highest rate for the urban wards is 26.9% of the working age population, with the districts containing the highest rates being Middlesbrough, Stockton, Hartlepool, Easington and Newcastle. The district of Easington also contains the wards that have the highest proportion of the working age population on benefits in the fringe areas. There are 5 wards with approximately 24.3% of its population on benefits. The wards with the lowest rates (less than 4%) are found Tynedale and Castle Morpeth districts. Ward Level Incapacity Benefit Claimants by Area Type, November Media 25 Percentage of workclaimaints per ward Rural Fringe Urban Source: Ward Level Incapacity Benefits Data, Department for Work and Pensions Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

39 5.2 Skills Levels of the Population In 2003 the proportion of the working age population in rural areas with a qualification level of 2 & above was 64.1%, whilst in urban areas the rate was 56.9%, 1.3 percentage points above the rate for mixed areas. The recent trends in the rates for level 2 & above qualifications at the regional and urban levels are both increasing over time, with the growth in urban areas being 10.3 percentage points over the period from 1999 to % Working Age Population with Qualification Level 2 & Above by Area Type 61.4% 60% 59.1% Proportion of Working Age Population (%) 55% 50% 45% 53.4% 48.7% 45.6% 56.9% 56.8% 55.6% 40% Rural Mixed Urban North East England Source: Local Area Labour Force Suvey - Office for National Statistics Using data from the Census 2001, the distribution of rates of qualifications of level 2 and above illustrates that the median rate in rural wards is 47.8% of the 16 to 74 year old population with level 2+ qualifications, with a range of values from 25.2% to 64.8% (39.6 percentage points). The range of values in the fringe areas is 53.0 percentage points, with greater rates of qualifications up to 77.4% of the population. The statistics for the urban areas again illustrate the largest extremes of qualification rates. The lowest rates are approximately one-in-five individuals in the east end of Newcastle, while the highest rate is 93.9% of the population, in parts of Durham City heavily populated with students. However, the median rate for level 2 and above qualifications in the urban area is the lowest in the region at 37.2% of the population. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

40 Ward Level Distribution of Proportion of Population with Qualification Level 2 & Above by Area Type, = median Proportion of Yearold Population (%) Rural Fringe Urban Source: Census 2001, Office for National Statistcs The proportion of the population with higher qualification is again highest in rural areas (29.2%) in 2005, marginally above the national average. The rate in rural areas is some 4.5 percentage points higher than in urban areas (24.7%) and 5.3 percentage points higher than the rate in mixed areas (23.9%). Similar to the level 2 qualifications, the recent trends at the urban and regional level has been for increasing rates since 2000, consistent with the trend of the national average. Working Age Population with Qualification Level 4 & Above by Area Type 30% 29% 29.2% Proportion of Working Age Population (%) 28% 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 26.3% 22.5% 22.0% 28.3% 24.8% 24.7% 23.9% 21% 20% Rural Mixed Urban North East England Source: Local Labour Force Suvey - Office for National Statistics Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

41 5.3 Individual and Household Incomes Total Incomes of Areas Types ( Mean of Means and Medians) Incomes ( ) 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 19,600 17,075 16,370 16,300 15,833 14,400 21,900 20,950 18,500 18,280 18,211 16,000 15,350 14,800 14,778 14,650 13,000 12,000 13,080 12,900 12,811 12, Rural Mean Mixed Mean Urban Mean North East Mean United Kingdon Mean Rural Median Mixed Median Urban Median North East Median United Kingdom Median Source: Table Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs In , the mean individual incomes of those registered for tax in rural areas was 20,900, some 2,700 above the mixed and urban areas, but below the national average of 21,900. The average incomes of individuals in all areas of the region have been growing over the period, with the growth in rural areas (23%) out stripping that of the urban (15%) and mixed (12%) areas. As a consequence the gap in average incomes between the rural and the urban & mixed areas has been growing over the period, with the rural statistics growing from 108% to 115% of the urban statistic. Using the median statistics i.e. the middle ranking figure, the average individual incomes for the three areas are more similar, with the range between the figures in the latter year being only 600, and the rural statistics being the largest at 15,350. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

42 Individual Incomes by Status (Mean of Median) 16,000 14,690 15,120 14,826 14,900 15,800 12,000 Incomes ( ) 8,000 10,388 9,312 9,541 8,173 10,462 8,959 9,890 10,400 8,510 8,630 4,000 0 Rural Urban Mixed North East United Kingdom Self Employed Employment Pension Source: Table Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs The data supplier, HM Revenue and Customs, also identifies the average incomes by source type. During , the self-employed in rural areas earned marginally less than counterparts in mixed areas who exceeded the national average, but have higher average incomes than those in urban areas and the regional average. Those in employment (employees) in rural areas earn the least income in the region 14,690, 500 below the urban counterparts. The average income for pensioners who pay tax is greatest in rural areas 9,312, approximately 1,200 more than pensioners in urban areas and exceeding the national average. However, this data source excludes statistics on pensioners that do not pay tax. The PayCheck data from CACI enables further analysis of incomes by household and at ward level. The median statistics for the mean of wards in rural areas ( 27,958) is similar to the statistics for the urban fringe, but both figures are approximately 2,500 higher than value for urban areas in The range of variation in the mean of household incomes in rural areas is 25,500, being between 19,259 and 44,771. The largest range ( 30,800) is in urban fringe areas with the mean being between 19,300 and 50,160, while in the urban areas the range is between 15,780 and 43,571. The highest mean household incomes in the region can be found in the Ponteland area of Castle Morpeth, parts of Tynedale and Stockton. The lowest can be found in wards with Middlesbrough, Redcar & Cleveland and Newcastle. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

43 Mean Household Incomes by Ward for Area Types ,000 = Median of Means 40,000 Income Value 27,958 27,242 24,729 20,000 0 Area Type Rural Fringe Urban Source: NERIP Executive Team, PayCheck Data CACI 2005 Seventy-four percent of households in rural areas have a median household income of between 20,000-30,000, while 21% of wards have median household incomes less than 20,000 and only 2% of wards have incomes in excess of 35,000. Significantly more households in urban areas have a median household income less than 20,000 (44%), while in fringe areas the proportion is 26%. There are also a smaller proportion of households in urban areas, approximately two-thirds, where the median household income is between 20,000 and 30,000, and similarly for household incomes in excess of 35,000 i.e. 2%. In the fringe areas however, the proportion of wards with household incomes in excess 30,000 is the greatest at 13%. Proportion of Households by Median Household Income (Ward Level 2004) Type 10-15k 15-20k 20-25k 25-30k 30-35k 35-40k 40-45k Rural 0% 21% 48% 26% 3% 2% 0% Fringe 0% 26% 45% 15% 8% 3% 2% Urban 4% 40% 32% 17% 5% 2% 0% Source: NERIP Executive Team: PayCheck CACI Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

44 5.4 Commuting to Work in the North East In rural areas, the prevalence of individuals working from home is proportionally twice that of other areas in the region. Similarly, proportionally more individuals in the rural areas travel shorter distances to work. In total, 42% of journeys to work in rural areas are less than 2km, while in mixed and urban areas it is 27% of journeys. Significantly fewer commuters (16%) from rural areas travel between 2km and 10km to work, less than half the proportion of mixed areas and less than one-third of those journeys from urban areas. One-quarter of journeys from rural areas to work are 20km and over, with 9% travelling over 40km (or abroad), whereas in urban and mixed areas travel over 20km represents 9% and 13% of journeys and travel over 40km (or abroad) accounts for 5% and 4% respectively. Distance Travelled to Work by Commuters by Area Type 2001 Rural 16% 26% 7% 9% 17% 9% 9% Mixed 8% 19% 16% 20% 24% 7% 4% Urban 7% 20% 27% 23% 14% 3% 5% North East 8% 20% 23% 21% 17% 4% 5% England 10% 21% 21% 19% 16% 6% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Works mainly at or from home Less than 2 km 2km to less than 5km 5km to less than 10km 10km to less than 20km 20km to less than 30km 30km to less than 40km Over 40km (incl abroad) Source: Special Workplace Statistics, Census 2001 Office for National Statistics The car/van is the most prevalent mode of transport in all areas of the region, but its usage, as a proportion of journeys to work, is greatest in rural and mixed areas at 65% of journeys. Bus usage in rural areas, at 16% of journeys, is less than a third of that in urban areas and half that of mixed areas. Proportionally more individuals travel to work by foot in rural areas (17%), six percentage points greater than in urban and mixed areas. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

45 Mode of Transport used by Commuters by Area Type 2001 Rural 65% 4% 17% 8% Mixed 65% 8% 11% 11% Urban 57% 14% 11% 9% North East 60% 12% 11% 10% England 60% 8% 11% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Driving a car or van Bus; minibus; coach On foot Passenger in a car or van Underground; metro; light rail, tram Bicycle Train Other Taxi or minicab Motorcycle; scooter or moped Source: Special Workplace Statistics, Census 2001 Office for National Statistics Further analysis of the Census 2001 commuting data can be found on the NERIP website ( Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

46 Place 6.0 Society & Living 6.1 Housing Stock of the North East In the North East in 2004 total housing stock reached 1,141,124 dwellings across the region. The majority of this housing stock is located in the urban areas, equating to just fewer than 63% of the total stock, which translates to 716,915 dwellings situated in urban areas. A large proportion of urban housing stock is designated to Sunderland and Newcastle upon Tyne which combined account for 34% of total urban housing stock in the North East. In contrast, rural areas are only attributed 6% of total housing stock for the region, which equates to 66,481 dwellings. 39% of all the rural housing stock is located in Tynedale. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

47 Mixed areas of the region contain 31% of the total housing stock (357,728), with Redcar and Cleveland having the largest proportion of this at 17% of mixed housing stock. Generally speaking housing stock levels in local authorities are relative to the number of people living there. As you would expect, densely populated urban areas have a much higher proportion of the total housing stock compared with the relatively sparsely populated rural areas. Detached dwellings is the largest proportion of house type in rural areas (32%), with Semi Detached and Terraced housing be approximately equal in share at 30%. The proportion of detached dwellings in rural areas is twice than of the mixed areas and the regional average. The proportion of Semi Detached housing in the mixed and urban areas are approximately 40% of housing stock, while in rural areas it is 30%. Terraced housing is most common in mixed areas at 37% of stock, whilst they are least common in the rural areas. Flats, Maisonettes & Apartments are most common in urban areas, with 18% of the housing stock, while in the mixed and rural areas they represent between 7% and 8% of stock. 100% Proportion of Housing Stock by Type by Area Type % 80% 70% Percentage of Total housing 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Rural Mixed Urban North East Detached Terraced (incl end terrace) Semi Detached Flat; maisonette or apartment Source: Regional Spatial Strategy Annual Monitoring Report 2006 The total number of vacant dwellings in the North East reached 38,154 in The vacant dwelling distribution is as follows: Urban-62% Rural-4% and Mixed-34%. The proportion of urban vacant dwellings represents 1 percentage point less than the equivalent proportion of stock and 22% of that is situated in Newcastle upon Tyne, which is proportionally much higher than the equivalent stock levels in Newcastle. Rural housing vacancies account for 4% of all vacant dwellings in the region nearly half of which (49%) are situated in Tynedale. Housing vacancies in mixed areas account for 34% of all vacant dwellings in the North East Easington represented the highest proportion with 17% of all mixed vacant dwellings located in this district. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

48 Housing Vacancy Rates by Area Type, Proportion of Housing Stock (%) Rural Mixed Urban NE Source: Regional Planning Guidance Annual Monitoring Report, North East Assembly, 2005 Looking at the vacancies as a proportion of stock illustrates that there are far more vacant dwellings in mixed districts of the region (6.6%) and far fewer in the urban districts (1.8%). Rural districts have a proportion of 2.5% vacancies from total stock putting them above the urban proportions but below the regional average. 6.2 The Housing Market in the North East The affordability of housing is a pertinent policy issue within the region following a decade of high house price inflation, resulting in fewer and fewer first time buyers being able to access the housing market. To monitor the situation, the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister commissioned the development of a Housing Affordability Index, a scale which benchmarks the cost of housing relative to incomes, enabling the identification of hotspots in the housing market that require policy intervention. The official Housing Affordability Index is a local authority district level indicator which is the ratio of the house price value for the lower quartile of sales per district and the lower quartile of earnings. The higher the ratio the more unaffordable the housing in the district is. The NERIP Executive Team have adapted the Housing Affordability Index to provide analysis of affordability issues at ward level by the use of PayCheck ward based household incomes. The methodology used therefore is the house price value for the lower quartile of sales per district and the lower quartile of household incomes. Household incomes will be higher than the earnings of individuals and thus reflects better the relative wealth of individuals and also this approach enables better spatial analysis to be undertaken. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

49 The above map illustrates the spatial distribution of the housing affordability index by wards within the North East. In the North East 30.7% of households in the lower quartile of household income band, are in wards where the affordability index is in excess of 10 units, while a further 37.7% are in wards where the index is between 7 and 10 units. Only 6.1% of households from this quartile of households are in wards where the index is less than 4 units. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

50 50.0% Proportion of Households in North East England by Housing Affordability Ratio (2004 Ward Based Lower Quartile Household Income Band) Proportion of Households in Lower Quartile Household Income Band (%) 25.0% 7.4% 6.5% 6.1% 11.8% 11.9% 11.2% 26.0% 17.3% 14.3% 13.0% 27.2% 21.1% 17.3% 15.9% 21.8% 20.4% 18.2% 6.2% 38.5% 31.0% 30.7% 24.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 4 & less to 7 7 to to Afforadability Index - Ratio of Lowest Quartile House Prices to Lowest Quartile Household Incomes Rural Fringe Urban North East Source: NERIP Executive Team using PayCheck - CACI and Department of Communities and Local Government House Price Data From the above chart it is evident that in rural areas there is a larger proportions of households with a higher affordability ratio than in other parts of the region. Clearly the proportion of households in wards where the affordability index is in excess of 10 units is 38.5% (7,535 households) in rural areas, compared to 24% in fringe areas and 31% in urban areas. Further it is significant that there are no households in rural areas where the affordability index is less than 4 units, similarly there are only 2.1% of households in areas with the index less than 5.5 units. This compares to 18.3% of households in fringe areas and 18.3% of households in urban areas. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

51 The total number of property sales in the North East equalled 45,169 in Of these, 64% (28,771) took place in urban districts of the region; 31% (13,983) took place in mixed districts and only 5% (2,415) of property sales took place in the rural districts. 10,000,000 Property Sales in the North East: by Area Type 1,000, , ,526 Number of Propety Sales 100,000 38,660 24,017 28,771 45,169 10,000 12,326 13,983 2,317 2,415 1, Rural Mixed Urban North East England Source: House Sales figures, Department of Communities and Local Government In both urban and mixed districts the number of sales has fallen significantly from 2004 to In the case of urban districts this decrease equates to a 21% drop in the number of sales and in mixed areas a 23% drop. Rural districts experienced a less dramatic fall of 18%. You would expect numbers of property sales to differ between the urban, rural and mixed districts simply because of the significant differences in population sizes and housing stock. However there are some marked differences between the growth rates of property sales in these areas, which give a more useful comparison between the geographies. Over the 10-year period the average annual growth rate for property sales has been highest in urban districts at 2.5% and lowest in rural districts at 1.1% - mixed districts have experienced a growth rate of 2%. Growth rates in rural districts have been fairly erratic, having in some years massively exceeded that of urban districts and in others been significantly lower. With these extremes taking place in consecutive years there seems to be no logical trend and this may at least in part be a reflection of the small number of sales. Despite the differences within the region, property sale growth rates across all three geographies have exceeded the national average which has an average annual growth rate of 0.4% since Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

52 6.3 Crime Levels The crime data used in this report is extracted from recorded crime statistics for six key offences published by the home office. For the purposes of this report total crime equates to the sum of these six key offences and as such may be lower than other published statistics of total crime. The six key offences are Violence against another person; Sexual Offences; Robbery; Burglary of a Dwelling; Theft of a Motor Vehicle and Theft from a Motor Vehicle. Car theft crime equals the sum of Theft of a motor Vehicle and Theft from a Motor Vehicle. Average total crime in the North East reached 31.4 incidents per 1,000 populations in Urban areas have the highest incidence of crime per 1,000 populations over the six-year period, averaging at 45 per 1,000 populations. The disparity between urban areas and the regional average has remained about the same since 1999 with total incidence of crime continually about 12 more per 1,000 populations than in the North East on average. Total Crime in North East England by Area Type Incidents per 1,000 Population /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 Rural Mixed Urban North East Source: Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships, Home Office Both mixed and rural areas have a lower than average incidence of total crime. Crime in mixed areas is on average 29 incidents per 1,000 populations, and in rural it is even lower at an average of 15 incidents per 1,000 populations. Total crime per 1,000 populations has decreased in both urban and mixed areas since 2002/03, but in rural areas the decrease did not begin until 2004/05 Car theft crime reached an average of 10 incidents per 1,000 populations in 2004/05 in the North East. Car theft crime in urban areas is well above the regional average at 15 incidents per 1,000 population in 2004/05 but has fallen annually since 1999 when the rate was 22 incidents per 1,000 pop. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

53 Car Theft Crime in North East England by Area Type Incidents per 1,000 Population /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 Rural Mixed Urban North East Source: Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships, Home Office Car theft crime in mixed and rural areas is below the regional average and has remained so since The incidence of car theft crime in mixed areas of the region reached 9 per 1,000 pops in 2004/05 and in rural areas this figure was only 4 per 1,000 pops. The disparity between urban car theft crime and rural car theft crime has been decreasing since 1999 and whilst incidence of car theft is continuing to drop in urban areas, rural car theft crime has remained unchanged for the last three years. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

54 7.0 Environment and Infrastructure 7.1 Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and Heritage Sites SSSIs are representative of the country's very best wildlife and geological sites. There are over 4,000 SSSIs in England, covering around 7% of the country's land area. Over half of these sites, by area, are internationally important for their wildlife, and designated as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), Special Protection Areas (SPAs) or Ramsar sites. Many SSSIs are also National Nature Reserves (NNRs) or Local Nature Reserves (LNRs). In 2005 the region had 251 SSSI comprising 1,130 SSSI units, of which 71 percent (801) were located in rural districts, 22% (244) in mixed districts and 8% (88) were situated in Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

55 urban districts. SSSIs are predominantly semi-natural habitats such as bogs, grasslands and coastlands and consequently mostly situated in agricultural areas, and so unsurprisingly the largest proportion of them are present in the rural areas of the region as opposed to the highly developed urban districts. In the North East in 2005 there were 12,206 listed buildings, 46 per cent (5,568) of which were located in Rural Districts; 30 percent (3,678) in mixed districts and 24 (2,960) per cent in urban districts. The highest proportion of listed buildings can be found in Tynedale, which contains 15 percent of the region s listed buildings. Significantly all the rural districts contain over 1,000 listed buildings each, and although the physical area covered by these districts are larger in size than urban districts they are much less populated and developed. To illustrate this, the average number of listed buildings in rural districts is 42 per 1,000 population compared to only 2 listed buildings per 1,000 population in the urban districts. Listed buildings by Local Authority District - North East England: 2005 Number of Buildings 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Tynedale Alnwick Teesdale Berwick Castle Morpeth Durham Redcar & C'land Wear Valley Derwentside Sedgefield Blyth Valley Wansbeck Easington Chester-le-Street Newcastle Darlington Stockton-on-Tees Sunderland Gateshead North Tyneside South Tyneside Hartlepool Middlesbrough Rural Mixed Urban Source: Buildings at Risk Register, 2005, English Heritage Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

56 7.2 Land Use Profile of the North East Analysis of land use uses two data sources - Corine land use data and the experimental Generalised Land use Database. The Corine Land Use data set is derived from a computer classification of satellite scenes, obtained mainly from Landsat satellites, the data is comprehensive and very detailed and for the purposes of this report has been aggregated up to five different types of land use. The experimental Generalised Land use Database categorises land parcels into nine key themes and draws on data derived from Ordnance Survey. Further information on the Corine data source is available via the following links Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

57 The map of the region below illustrates the distribution of different types of land cover in the region. You can see that, as you would expect, the developed areas are predominately located in the urban areas and become more spaced out into the fringe areas like the south of Derwentside, and parts of Castle Morpeth and Blyth Valley. In the rural regions the developed areas become much more sporadic and smaller in size and are largely situated near the coast where many of the larger rural settlements are. Marsh and bog lands are mainly found in the rural districts and in particular Tynedale and Teesdale, the rural parts of wear valley and a small amount on the fringe parts of Derwentside. Similarly, Semi Natural land cover is predominantly positioned to the west of the region throughout all the rural districts, the rural parts of Wear Valley and the fringe part of Derwentside. Land Use of North East England by Area Type, 2001 Rural Fringe Urban 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Path Rail Non Domestic Buildings Domestic Buildings Other Gardens Road Water Greenspace Source: Generalised Land Use Database Statistics for England, Department of Communities and Local Government The above chart shows the distribution of land use across the rural, urban and fringe geographies as of The rural areas of the North East are made up of 97% greenspace, this is 4.6 percentage points more greenspace than in fringe areas (92.4%) and 27.9 percentage points more greenspace than in urban areas (69.1%) Rural areas are made up of 1.3% water, 0.8% roads, and 0.4% gardens. This means that only 0.2% of rural areas are made up of non-domestic and domestic buildings, and just 0.03% of rural areas are rail and paths. In contrast urban areas are made up of 9.9% garden; 6.9% Road; 3.8% domestic buildings, 2.2% non domestic buildings; 2.3% water and 1.2% rail and path. Fringe areas run the balance between rural and urban across all land uses with proportions roughly half way between the two with the exception of water, which only accounts for 0.9% of fringe areas land use. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65

58 The following maps illustrate the North East s rural, urban and fringe areas and location of settlements in the region. Rural, Urban and Fringe classifications are based on a combination of settlement patterns and commuting flow datasets. Settlement locations are based on address data. It is possible to present this data on a single map but this causes some detail to be obscured. The maps illustrate that urban areas of the North East have a much more dense distribution of settlements. Urban settlements are larger in size and close together, this is evident in areas such as Tyne and Wear; Gateshead; North and South Tyneside; Sunderland; Middlesbrough and Stockton-on-Tees. The fringe areas of the North East contain a high number of smaller sized settlements which appear to be more concentrated and greater in size the closer they are situated to the urban areas. In contrast the areas of fringe that border with rural areas contain smaller settlements, which are more sparsely distributed. Rural areas of the North East have a high number of settlements, but a large proportion of these are very small in size many being just a single postcode. The settlements are more closely positioned nearer the urban and fringe areas and become increasingly sparse in the rural areas furthest away from the urban and fringe areas. There are some more substantial settlements in rural areas in particular in some parts of the south west of the region in Tynedale, located near to the urban area of Hexham, and in Teesdale towards the Yorkshire border. There are also several larger rural settlements to the north east of the region, most noticeably near to the coast. The rural areas with very few settlements are predominantly in the north west of the region, in Alnwick; Tynedale and Berwick-upon Tweed. Rural & Urban Comparison in North East England NERIP July /65