DRAFT V0.1 7/11/12. Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report. Data to support the refresh of JSNA 2012

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1 DRAFT V0.1 7/11/12 Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report Data to support the refresh of JSNA 2012 Ann Richardson Public Health Analysis Team NHS Sheffield 722 Prince of Wales Road Sheffield S9 4EX The report covers Sheffield population trends Projections (overall and by age groups) Population distribution across the city Ethnic populations Tel: Date: 5 November 2012 Ref: 2012 (10) V1.0 Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 1 of 23

2 Title Sheffield 2012: JSNA Demographics Background Data Report Reference Status (Draft / Issued) DRAFT Version 0.1 Date Created Approved By Commissioned by Jeremy Wight Audience Distribution FOI Category No restrictions Author Ann Richardson, Public Health Analysis Team Owner (if different) Amendment History Review date Comments TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Key Points Introduction Sheffield Population Trends Sheffield Clinical Commissioning Group (SCCG) Resident and Registered Age and Sex Structure Change by Age Group Variations in Population Across the City Variations in age group composition across the City year olds year olds Comparison of ONS and NHS Sheffield Data Trend Data Comparison with the 2011 Census Population Projections and Population Change Components of Population Change Births and Deaths Migration Drivers of Change by Age Group Ethnicity ONS experimental data Geographical distribution School Children (5 to 16) by Ethnic Group Births by Ethnic Group APPENDIX 1 Neighbourhood Reference Map APPENDIX 2 Data Sources Population Trends and Small Area Counts Office of National Statistics NHS Sheffield Population Health Register Data on Ethnicity Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 2 of 23

3 1 Key Points Total population: 551,800 in 2011, predicted to rise by by 4.5% to 576,600 in 2017 (5 years hence), and by 6.8% to 589,500 in 2021 (9 years hence). 99% of the Sheffield population registered with GP practices are registered with NHS Sheffield. 6.1% are aged under 5, 24.4% under 20, 7.5% aged 75 and over, 2.1% aged 85 and over, and 0.8aged 95 and over. By 2017 ( 5 years hence) ONS project an increase of 8.5% (3,450 persons) aged 75+, and a 6.3% (2,100) increase in children aged under 5. By nine years hence (2012) there is projected 26.8% increase in 85+ year olds, and an 18.7% increase in 75+ year olds Neighbourhoods showing the largest increase in population between April 2008 and April 2012 are the City Centre, and Netherthorpe The distribution of population by age group varies across the City, and this has a direct impact on service usage and planning. There are two neighbourhoods (Tinsley and Firvale) where over 10% of the population are aged under 5 years old. 15.0% of the population in Lodge Moor neighbourhood is aged 75+ and 7 other neighbourhoods have over 12% of the population in this age group. There are four neighbourhoods (Tinsley, Firvale, Woodside and Burngreave) where over 90% of school children are from a non-white-british ethnic group Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 3 of 23

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5 2 Introduction This report has been commissioned by Jeremy Wight, Director of Public Health NHS Sheffield. It is intended to provide an overview of Sheffield of basic demographic data to support the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) process. Further detailed breakdowns of much of this data for geographical areas within Sheffield, i.e. the 100 Sheffield Neighbourhoods, 28 Electoral Wards and 7 Community Assemblies is obtainable via the Health Data and Reports section of the NHS Sheffield website. Figure 1 shows the above boundaries. Sheffield Neighbourhood Health and Well-being Atlas (includes neighbourhoods and Service Districts) Sheffield Ward Health and Well-being Atlas (includes wards and Community Assemblies) Neighbourhood Health Profiles Ward Health Profiles (includes Wards and Community Assemblies) A reference map of neighbourhoods can be found in Appendix 1. Brief details of the main sources of Sheffield population data used in this report can be found in Appendix 2. 3 Sheffield Population Trends The latest population estimate for Sheffield published by the ONS is 551,800 (mid 2011 estimate). The latest ONS projections (2011 based) predict an increase in the Sheffield population by 4.5% to 576,600 in 2017 (5 years hence), and by 6.8% to 589,500 in 2021 (9 years hence), (Figure 1) Figure 1 650,000 Sheffield Total Population 1974 to 2011 (ONS mid year estimates and 2011 based projections) Number of persons 600, , , , , , , , ,000 ONS Mid Yr Estimates ONS 2011 based projections Note : scale origin not Year Source: ONS Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield, 6/11/12 Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 5 of 23

6 3.1 Sheffield Clinical Commissioning Group (SCCG) Resident and Registered NHS Sheffield Clinical Commissioning Group (SCCG) is responsible for commissioning health care for all persons who registered with Sheffield GP practices. This includes Sheffield residents and some non-sheffield residents. It is also responsible for Sheffield residents who are not registered with any practice. It also follows that some Sheffield residents are registered with non-sheffield practices. SCCG has regular population extracts of all Sheffield residents (whomever they are registered with). This data source is called the Population Health Register (PHR) and allows the production of detailed population counts for small areas within Sheffield using the data items of age and sex. It however does not have any information on ethnic group. SCCG also has quarterly data on the total number of persons who are registered with it. The most recent Office of National Statistics (ONS) estimate of the Sheffield resident population is 551,800 for mid This estimate is however 1.8% lower than the actual number of Sheffield residents registered with any general practice of 561,527 in July 2011, and 3.1% lower than the number of Sheffield residents registered with general practices in July 2012 (569,153). The majority of persons registered with Sheffield CCG are Sheffield residents, 98.6% of the total 570,697 persons in April 2012, 570,697. At the same time period less than 1% of Sheffield s resident population (4,552), were registered with non-sheffield based practices: - North Derbyshire (2,078), Barnsley (1,966) and Rotherham (408). Conversely a slightly higher number of persons (7,983 in April 2012) live outside Sheffield but are registered with Sheffield practices (these practices tend to be on the outskirts of the City boundary). These non-sheffield residents constitute 1.4% of the total persons registered with Sheffield general practices. 3.2 Age and Sex Structure Figure 2 shows the age and sex structure of the Sheffield population as at 2011 and Since 2011 there has been a dramatic reduction in the proportion of children age under 15, dramatic increase in the proportion of people in the 20 to 24 year age bracket living in Sheffield due to the large number of students attending the universities in the City. There has also been a reduction in the proportion of persons aged between 45 and 64. Currently (ONS mid 2011), 6.1% (3,3,900) of the resident population are aged under 5, 24.4% (134,500) aged under 20, 7.5% (41,200) aged 75 and over, 2.1% (11,800 ) aged 85 and over, and 0.8% (4,300) aged 95 and over. Figure 2 Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 6 of 23

7 Sheffield Population 1974 and Year Age Group to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 0 to Females Females Males Males Population Source:ONS mid year population estimates Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield 3.3 Change by Age Group It is important to note in the planning of future service delivery that the projected change in numbers of persons in Sheffield differs across age groups, this is shown graphically in Figure 3 (for 5 years hence 2017) and Figure 4 and Figure 5 (for 9 years hence 2021). Figure 3 Sheffield Population 2011 and Year Age Group to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 0 to Females Females Males Males Population Source:ONS mid year population estimates Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield Figure 4 Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 7 of 23

8 Sheffield Population 2011 and Year Age Group to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 0 to Females Males Females Males Population Source:ONS mid year population estimates Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield Figure 5 70,000 Sheffield Projected Population Change 2011 to 2021 (5 year age groups) 60,000 Population 50,000 40,000 30, ,000 10, to 4 5 to 9 10 to to to to 29 Source: ONS 2011 mid year estimates and 2011 based projections 30 to to to to 49 Age group 50 to to to to to to to Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield, 6/11/12 Over the next five years (to 2017) (Figure 6), the major impact on demand for health services will be from the 65 and over age groups. There is a projected 8.2% increase in age group, (an increase of 3,680 persons), a projected increase of 6.8% in the age group (2,000 persons), and a projected increase of 12.3% (1,450 persons) in the 85 and over age group. This gives a total increase of over 75 year olds of 8.4% (3,450). There is also a projected increase of 6.3% (2,100) in children aged under 5 years. By nine years hence (2012) there is projected 26.8% increase in 85+ year olds, and an 18.7% increase in 75+ year olds. Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 8 of 23

9 Figure Sheffield Projected % Population Change 2011 to 2017, and 2021 for Selected Age Groups 25.0 % change from to 4 5 to to to to to 74 75to Source: ONS 2011 based projections Age Group Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield, 6/11/ Variations in Population Across the City Within Sheffield there is considerable variation in population change in different parts of the City (Figure 7). The neighbourhoods showing the largest increase in population between April 2008 and April 2012 are the City Centre, and Netherthorpe, largely due to large scale building of new student accommodation, which has led to a corresponding fall in the population in Broomhill and Endcliffe. The City Centre has seen and continues to experience large scale general housing development. Figure 7 Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 9 of 23

10 3.5 Variations in age group composition across the City The distribution of population by age group varies across the City, and this has a direct impact on service usage and planning. Figure 8 shows that the highest numbers of children aged under 5 are predominantly in the north, east and south of the city centre city, whilst the distribution of the population aged 85 and over (Figure 10) is very different, with very few older persons in the centre and east of the city. Below is a selection of neighbourhood population profiles showing how the age profiles of various parts of the city can be very different. Registered Population (April 2012) for Woodside Neighbourhood Registered Population (April 2012) for Darnall Neighbourhood Males Females Males Females Age (Years) Age (Years) % of Total Population % of Total Population Registered Population (April 2012) for Lodge Moor Neighbourhood Registered Population (April 2012) for Charnock Neighbourhood Age (Years) Males Females Age (Years) Males Females % of Total Population % of Total Population Registered Population (April 2012) for Endcliffe Neighbourhood Registered Population (April 2012) for Sothall Neighbourhood Age (Years) Males Females Age (Years) Males Females % of Total Population % of Total Population year olds There are two neighbourhoods (Tinsley and Firvale) where over 10% of the population are aged under 5 years old. The variation across the city is between 1.0% in Crookesmoor and 10.7% in Tinsley. In terms of numbers the range in from 27 Crookesmoor to 1,042 in Shiregreen. Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 10 of 23

11 Figure 8 Figure year olds The variation across the city neighbourhoods is between 0.3% in the City Centre to 15.0% in Lodge Moor. Eight neighbourhoods in total have over 12% of their population in this age group. In terms of numbers the range in from 37 persons in the City Centre to 1,162 in Woodhouse. It should be noted that the concentrations of older persons across the city is affected by the location of nursing homes. Figure 10 Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 11 of 23

12 Figure Comparison of ONS and NHS Sheffield Data This section is still to be written Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 12 of 23

13 3.6.1 Trend Data Sheffield Population Trends Jan 1999 to Apr 2012 Comparison of ONS and NHS data 580 Thousands Quarter CCG Sheffield Resident population (PHR) quarterly ONS Mid year estimates and April 2011 Census CCG Registered population (Quarterly) Source: NHS Sheffield CCG, PHR and GP_Pops extracts; ONS mid year and Census estimates Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield, 6/11/ Comparison with the 2011 Census This section is still to be written 4 Population Projections and Population Change This section needs to be completed Sheffield has participated in the development of a Sheffield City Region Population and Households Forecasting Tool which is complementary to the report "Forecasts of Populations and Households for the Sheffield City Region" (28/05/2012) produced by the Knowledge and Research Team, Sheffield City Council. This provides a consistent and objective assessment of future population and household growth across the Sheffield City Region, including the local authorities of: Doncaster, Sheffield, Chesterfield, Barnsley, Rotheham, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, North East Derbyshire and Derbyshire Dales. The forecasts provided have a direct link to the key theme of housing growth to support economic growth. They therefore form an important part of the picture that is needed to help policy makers determine the appropriate level of new housing that needs to be planned for in emerging Local Development Framework Core Strategies and future Local Plans. 4.1 Components of Population Change There are a rage of drivers and constraints which act to produce population change, including employment, dwelling completions, migration, commuting patterns, household headship rates, economic activity rates, mortality, births and household formation. Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 13 of 23

14 Between 1974 and 1991 the number of deaths was higher than the number of births in Sheffield and then until 2001 they were roughly equal. Since 2002 the number of deaths has continued to decline whilst the number of births has increased Births and Deaths The total number of births to Sheffield residents in 2008 was 6,690, only 0.8% higher than the previous year. Figure 12 shows a range of birth projections for the next 10 years. Projecting the trend of the number of births over the last 5 years, forward to 2012 gives a predicted figure of 7,360 births, which is an increase of 10.0%. It should be noted that the latest births projections published by the ONS (2006 based projections), are already out of date as they are predicting lower than actual for Sheffield Trends in Livebirths and All Deaths 1974 to Number Live Births All Deaths Year of Registration Source: ONS datafiles, NHS Sheffield Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield, 5/11/ Migration The ONS publish detail of the component elements of population change which give an insight into migration levels Interim 2011-based Subnational Population Projections Table 5: Population with components of change (births, deaths and migration) for all local authorities and higher administrative areas All ages Figures in thousands (to one decimal place) Area Component Sheffield Population Sheffield Natural change Sheffield Births Sheffield Deaths Sheffield All migration net Sheffield Internal migration in Sheffield Internal migration out Sheffield International migration in Sheffield International migration out Sheffield Cross border migration in Sheffield Cross border migration out Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 14 of 23

15 4.2 Drivers of Change by Age Group 0 to 4 Age Group The size of the 0-4 population is primarily driven by the birth rate. It is important to note that migration has little direct effect on the size of this population group, although increasing numbers of in-migrants of child-bearing age will most likely result in an increasing birth rate. Birth rates are particularly difficult to forecast, since there are a large range of factors which influence them. These include the economy, employment, housing & service access, the size of the potential child-bearing population, the higher education system and other cultural factors. 5 to 10, and 11 to 15 Age Groups Like the 0-4 age group, these age groups are most heavily influenced by birth rates. Longerterm variations in the forecasts are therefore symptomatic of divergences in forecast birth rates. Student Age Groups The age group is also primarily driven by birth rates, although migration begins to be more of a factor for this group. Student migration is a major influencer of the 18+ population in Sheffield. In terms of ONS estimates the student factor has little impact on the estimated size of the 18 year old population, since the estimate of the population is carried out mid-year before most 18 year olds will have arrived, or departed for university. The biggest variations in the forecasts are therefore for the year old age group. However, the student population is also partly represented by graduate students, mature students and graduates who remain in the city for some time after they graduate - particularly in the year old population. Hence, the model has to allow for complex migration patterns into and out of the city for the year age group - and it is not possible to simply apply higher education data uniformly to the year age group for these reasons. Working Age Population The definition of the working age population is the population aged 18-59F/64M. A weakness of considering this group en masse is that it includes the student population which is in many ways quite distinct from the rest of the population (concerning migration patterns, inflated age group size, employment patterns and so on).this population s size is likely to be one of the most difficult to forecast accurately, due to the wide range of factors which may influence migration into and out of Sheffield linked to the economy, social conditions and local/national policies. Retired Age Groups Perhaps surprisingly there are considerable variations in the older retired population in the different forecasts. Reasons for this are primarily linked to the mortality rates used in the forecasts. However it is important to note the generally higher numbers of actual persons in 2011 registered with the NHS. The highest mortality rates occur in the oldest populations. Hence, as mortality rates (and annual deaths) reduce, it is this older population which will be most greatly affected. Current circumstances would suggest that the higher forecasts are the more realistic for this group, although if mortality rates should suddenly increase, this would of course change. 5 Ethnicity There is a variety of sources of population counts by ethnic group in Sheffield, but these vary in quality and coverage. 1) ONS. Produced experimental data on ethnic groups in ) ONS Decennial Census data is the most comprehensive in coverage, but the 2011 data for Sheffield will not be published until ) Sheffield Local Authority Schools Annual Survey. This is the most comprehensive data coverage of ethnicity data for Sheffield children aged 6 to 16 years. Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 15 of 23

16 4) Births by Ethnic Group. This data is from births data recorded in the Sheffield teaching hospitals Trust 5) Ethnicity data on persons registered with Sheffield practices. This data is held within Practice registration systems, but is not currently available for analysis. However Sheffield CCG is hoping to be able to use this data in the future to assist in service planning and delivery. 5.1 ONS experimental data 2007 The latest ONS data on the ethnic mix of the Sheffield population comes from the ONS Experimental Population Estimates by Ethnic Group for 2007 published on 29/04/09. These show that 12.7% of the population are from Non-White ethnic groups, and that 15.5% of the population are from ethnic groups other than White British. The largest single non-white British ethnic group in Sheffield is Pakistani as shown in Figure 17, followed by Other White, Black African, Indian and then Chinese. This pattern is somewhat different to that in England as shown in Figure 18. Figure 17 Population in thousands Irish Other white Black Caribbean Black African Sheffield Non-White British Ethnic Groups Population by Sex, mid 2007 Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Other Asian Black Caribbean Black African Other Black Female Male Chinese Other White Mixed Asian or Asian British Black or Black British Chinese or Other Ethnic Group Ethnic Group Source: ONS 2007 Population Estimates by Ethnic Group ( Experimental statistics), Figure 18 Public Health Analysis Team Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 16 of 23

17 Sheffield and England. Non-White British Ethnic Groups Percentage of Population, mid % of total population England Sheffield 0.0 Irish Other white Black Caribbean Black African Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Other Asian Black Caribbean Black African Other Black Chinese Other White Mixed Asian or Asian British Black or Black British Chinese or Other Ethnic Group Source: ONS 2007 Population Estimates by Ethnic Group ( Experimental statistics), Public Health Analysis Team The number of Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) persons (i.e. non White-British) in Sheffield is increasing much faster than the overall population. Between 2006 and 2007 the BME population increased by 7.3%, compared to an increase of only 0.9% in the total population. The percentage change in population size between 2006 and 2007 by individual ethnic groups for Sheffield and England is shown in Figure 19. Figure 19 Percentage Population Change by Ethnic group 2006 to Sheffield and England 16 % change 2006 to ENGLAND Sheffield 0-2 British Irish Other White Black Black African Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Other Asian Black Caribbean Black African Other Black Chinese Other All Groups White Mixed Asian or Asian British Black or Black British Chinese or Other Ethnic Group Source: ONS 2007 Population Estimates by Ethnic Group ( Experimental statistics), Public Health Analysis Team The age profile varies between Non-White ethnic groups as shown in Figure 20. Generally Mixed ethnic groups and the Pakistani group have a higher proportion of children than other Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 17 of 23

18 ethnic groups, whilst only the Pakistani and Black Caribbean groups have a significant proportion in the 65 and over age group. This is because they are the ethnic groups that have been present in this country longest. Figure 20 population in thousands Non-White Ethnic Groups Population by Age group, mid 2007 Sheffield Black Caribbean Black African Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Other Asian Black Caribbean Black African Other Black Chinese Other Mixed Asian or Asian British Black or Black British Chinese or Other Ethnic Ethnic Group Group Source: ONS 2007 Population Estimates by Ethnic Group ( Experimental statistics), Public Health Analysis Team 5.2 Geographical distribution Within Sheffield many Black Minority and Ethnic groups have their own distinct communities and tend to be concentrated within these communities in certain parts of the city. Different BME groups have very different needs across the City which provides a challenge for service provision. The distribution of school children by ethnic group is currently the most comprehensive best source of data for exploring geographical variation in the city. 5.3 School Children (5 to 16) by Ethnic Group There are four neighbourhoods (Tinsley, Firvale, Woodside and Burngreave) where over 90% of school children are from a non-white-british ethnic group. The variation across the city is between 3.2% in Stocksbridge and 95.7% in Tinsley. Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 18 of 23

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20 5.4 Births by Ethnic Group Ethnic group is not recorded on birth certificates. However exploration of the difference in birth rates by ethnic group can be made by looking at the ethnic group of the mothers who delivered in the Jessop wing of the Sheffield Teaching Hospital Trust, or at home. It should be noted that this analysis will give different numbers to data based on the ethnic group of the baby itself. For example, there will be under representation of children of mixed race. % of Births % of Sheffield Total Births where Ethnicity of Mother is known Change in Ethnic groups (excluding White-British) 2004 to 2011 White - Irish/Other White Asian Black Mixed Other N.B. Babies Born to Sheffield Resident Mothers (at Home or in Sheffield Teaching Hospital Trust) Year of birth Public Health Analysis Team, NHS Sheffield, Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 20 of 23

21 Babies Born to Sheffield Resident Mothers (at Home or in Sheffield Teaching Hospital Trust) by Broad Ethnic Group of Mother Number Broad Ethnic Group Year of Birth of Mother White - British White - Irish/Other White Asian Black Mixed Other Not Stated/ N/K Grand Total Total Non-White British Percentage of Total Births Broad Ethnic Group Year of Birth of Mother White - British White - Irish/Other White Asian Black Mixed Other Not Stated/ N/K Grand Total Total non White British Percentage of Total Births where Ethnicity of Mother Known Broad Ethnic Group Year of Birth of Mother White - British White - Irish/Other White Asian Black Mixed Other Total non White British Source: Public Health Births Extract, NHS Sheffield Public Health Ananlysis Team, AR, NHS Sheffield Births by ethnic group of Mother are shown in Figure 16. In 2008, 32.94% of births were to mothers of non-white British ethnic groups; this is a decrease from the previous year when the proportion was 34.0%. The percentage of births to mothers of non-white ethnic groups in 2008 was 22.7% which is the same as the previous year. Over the last five years (2004 to 2008), there has been a 47% decrease in births from White Irish/Other White mothers, an 18.6% increase in births from White British mothers, and a 63.6% increase in births from mothers in Chinese and Other ethnic groups. Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 21 of 23

22 6 APPENDIX 1 Neighbourhood Reference Map Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 22 of 23

23 7 APPENDIX 2 Data Sources Brief details of the main sources of Sheffield population data used in this report. 7.1 Population Trends and Small Area Counts Office of National Statistics The main source of population data for Sheffield is the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The ONS produces annual mid year population estimates ( the latest is 2011), and sets of population projections which are re-based every few years (the latest is 2011 based). The ONS is also responsible for the national decennial Census which is the main source of population data for the country. The ONS produce on an ad hoc basis experimental statistics on the population by ethnicity. The first city level population data from the 2011 Census was published in September 2012, data for wards and other small area geographies is due to be published in late November NHS Sheffield Population Health Register SCCG has regular population extracts of all Sheffield residents (whomever they are registered with). This data source is called the Population Health Register (PHR) and allows the production of detailed population counts for small areas within Sheffield using the data items of age and sex. It however does not have any information on ethnic group. SCCG also has quarterly data on the total number of persons who are registered with it. 7.2 Data on Ethnicity There is a variety of sources of population counts by ethnic group in Sheffield, but these vary in quality and coverage. 6) ONS. Produced experimental data on ethnic groups in ) ONS Decennial Census data is the most comprehensive in coverage, but the 2011 data for Sheffield will not be published until ) Sheffield Local Authority Schools Annual Survey. This is the most comprehensive data coverage of ethnicity data for Sheffield children aged 6 to 16 years. 9) Births by Ethnic Group. This data is from births data recorded in the Sheffield teaching hospitals Trust 10) Ethnicity data on persons registered with Sheffield practices. This data is held within Practice registration systems, but is not currently available for analysis. However Sheffield CCG is hoping to be able to use this data in the future to assist in service planning and delivery. Public Health Analysis Team (AR) Page 23 of 23