Localised variations in South Asian turnout: a study using marked electoral registers

Transcription

1 Localised variations in South Asian turnout: a study using marked electoral registers Ed Fieldhouse With David Cutts, Paul Norman, Mark Tranmer and Kingsley Purdam

2 Turnout: Secular Decline vs Trendless Fluctuation Percentage Turnout at General Elections as proportion of registered electorate f 1974o

3 Reported Turnout (MORI 2001) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q.1. Some people did not get along to vote at the General Election on the 7th June. Did you vote at the General Election on the 7th June? Yes No Non-ethnic minority Ethnic Minority Black Asian

4 Reported turnout by ethnic minority status Austria Belgium Switzerland Czech Republic Germany Denmark Spain Finland Great Britain Greece Hungary Ireland Israel Italy Non-minority Luxembourg Holland Norway Poland Portugal Sweden Ethnic minority Source: European Social Survey

5 Reported Registration BES 86% of ethnic minorities registered to vote, 95% of whites 1997 BES allowed more detailed breakdowns (highest amongst Indian and white population) ONS 1991 White 93%, Asian 85%, Black 76% MORI survey 2001: Asian, 92%, Black, 90%, White, 97% Over 15% of MORI 2001 black respondents quoted this as reason for non-voting (all e.m. 10%, white, 6%)

6 Explaining Ethnic Differences Generic factors Younger age profile of ethnic minority communities Social class Higher levels of social and economic deprivation Systemic effects: e.g. geography and marginality Community Specific Factors Community engagement Representation in political institutions and parties Relevance of mainstream politics Exclusion and racism Neighbourhood effects?

7 Neighbourhood effects: possible explanations (according to Johnston, earlier today) Social Interaction Environmental Selection (or residential segregation?) Emulation Environmental observation Local pressure And Unobserved individual effects.

8 Distinguishing contextual and compositional effects Macro analysis estimates for population characteristics will contain contextual as well as compositional effects, but. Micro analysis area residuals will include unobserved compositional as well as contextual effects Evidence for neighbourhood effects is circumstantial Imperfectly specified models Unobserved heterogeneity

9 Why should neighbourhoods effect turnout? Effects on voting Applicability Social Interaction - social capital and embededness in local community Environmental Selection - resources Emulation - system benefits or civic duty and social norms Environmental observation - collective benefits Local pressure - mobilisation Unobserved effects - neighbourhood clustering is an artefact

10 Why should neighbourhood effects be important for South Asian electors? Polarisation in turnout (Indian and Pakistani/Bangladeshi) Spatial segregation/parallel lives But. Cohesive communities: talk together and vote together? Community leadership and mobilisation More powerful household effects in large households (and household clustering)

11 New study for Joseph Rowntree Foundation Registration and turnout Mis-reporting Survey non response Marked electoral registers Sample of 100 wards and two case study metropolitan boroughs 2001 Census 2001 (April 29 th 2001) General Election (June 7 th 2001) Nam Pehchan

12 Sample design % South Asian Pop. No of Wards Sample Total Pop. South Asian Pop. Excluded 0% N\A 0 Group A >0% - <0.5% , Group B 0.5% - <2% ,955 1,495 Group C 2% - <10% ,849 6,721 Group D 10% - <20% ,869 27,669 Group E 20% ,984 85,372 Total , ,571 Note. All registered electors in the sampled wards are included, though this will be somewhat less than the total pop (column 3), which includes all persons of all ages.

13 Burngreave location

14 Burngreave context Name of constituency Major Census Region (Britain) Sheffield, Central Yorkshire and Humberside County South Yorkshire Winner of seat 2001 Lab win Party in 2nd place 2001 LibDem 2nd % Turnout % Majority % Vote Conservative % Vote Labour % Vote LibDem Rank index of multiple deprivation 2000: 60 Constituency Sheffield Central MP - Richard Caborn Turnout %

15 Burngreave: Ethnic composition, 2001 Resident Burngreave Sheffield England White population of which White Irish (percentage) Mixed Asian or Asian British Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Other Asian Black or Black British Caribbean African Other Black Chinese or Other Ethnic Group Burngreave Sheffield England and Wales Christian Buddhist Hindu Jewish Muslim Sikh Other religions No religion Religion not stated

16 NAM Pechan Results for Sheffield Burngreave Religion Common Hindu Muslim Sikh Buddhist Other Clashes Total Language Bengali % Gujerati % Hindi % Punjabi % Pushtu % Singhalese % Sylheti % Tamil % Urdu % Other % Muslim Languages % Hindu Languages % Common % Clashes % Total % 6.60% 0.70% 91.60% 0.60% 0.00% 0.10% 0.50% % Note: 20% of register coded as South Asian

17 Registration and turnout by South Asian and all other electors, Burngreave, 2001 Not South Asian South Asian Total Population Over (18%) All registered (20%) 8576 Registered eligible (20%) 8130 Voted (21%) 3772 % Registration % Turnout (of eligible electorate) % Turnout (of pop 18+)

18 Estimated registration by OA

19 Variation in turnout by OA (all electors)

20 South Asian Electors %

21 Carstairs index of deprivation

22 South Asian turnout

23 South Asian turnout v electorate share South Asian turnout % South Asian Electors

24 Turnout by other ethnic groups

25 South Asian and other turnout % turnout OA ranked by overall turnout Votesa% othervote%

26 Two level model (person and OA)

27 Residuals from model

28 Two level model with South Asian % and interaction

29 Two level model with compositional variables

30 3 level model (person, household, OA)

31 3 level model with compositional variables

32 Conclusions Turnout might be expected to influenced by neighbourhood context (but some variation might be due to residential selection coupled with unmeasured effects) Neighbourhood effects might be expected to be stronger for South Asian groups due to community cohesion and household size South Asian turnout is (probably) higher then that of other ethnic groups Impact of ethnic origin varies across areas Preliminary evidence from one area shows size of South Asian population is key indicator in determining whether South Asian turnout is higher Homeownership, % of single pensioners and deprivation also impact on turnout levels. Household variation much more substantial than OA level variation