Migration and multicultural Britain British Society for Population Studies. 2 nd May 2006, Greater London Authority

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1 Migration and multicultural Britain British Society for Population Studies 2 nd May 2006, Greater London Authority

2 Why migration and cultural origin? Public debate on population patterns Influence on small areas Migration at heart of public policy Community cohesion Housing investment Immigration

3 Migration in multicultural Britain Origins of immigration Destinations of immigrants Transnational communities Housing capacity in inner cities Migration, class and culture The changing nature of ethnicity Migration and demographic characteristics Indigenous population Diverse communities

4 Data sources for migration and multicultural Britain No civil registration of migration Census migration question Census country of birth net migration Areas of changed composition Population databases Migrant databases Qualitative studies

5 More mixing? More segregation? Ludi Simpson, Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, University of Manchester BSPS Migration and multicultural Britain, 2 nd May 2006

6 Integration, migration and Assimilation population patterns Dispersal lower segregation residential melting pot Plural continuity Social capital in clusters dispersal suburban clustering / mosaic

7 Rochdale Area classification according to Asian population and growth Settlement >33% +6, % Middleton Oldham Growth , % Small growth , % Other < %

8 Migration Net Migration within the UK % of 2001 population All White Immigration , % of 2001 population Groups other than White All White Groups other than White Asian settlement Asian growth Small Asian growth Other areas

9 Net Migration method Ethnic group 1991 and 2001 categories matched White, Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Chinese, Indian, Caribbean, African For each ethnic group: Neighbourhood population change = Neighbourhood births = children in 2001 Constrained to vital statistics Borough total Neighbourhood deaths estimated from 1991 age structure Equal mortality rates Constrained to vital statistics Borough total Neighbourhood net migration = Population change (Births Deaths)

10 Net Migration evaluation Methodological issues Adjust for undercount, population base, geography, age information Children 2001 and estimated deaths include migrants Leads to under-estimation of absolute size of net migration Comparison with shows consistency Extensions Age-specific: net migration profiles USA Counties Paul Voss et al: Albert Sabater / Nissa Finney at CCSR Results for Oldham and Rochdale neighbourhoods Vasilis Gavalas

11 Migration Natural change Total persons White Black Indian Pak ni B shi Other Asian settlement Asian growth Small Asian growth Other areas Net migration Total persons White Black Indian Pak ni B shi Other Asian settlement Asian growth Small Asian growth Other areas

12 Districts with one ward more than 10% Black and Asian Migration within UK from wards with most Black/Asian residents White left, Black / Asian left White came, Black / Asian left Black / Asian came Black/Asian Births vs Black/Asian immigration Of all 83 Districts Ealing -99, Births more Newham -160, -931 Births more Leicester +35, -816 Immigration more Birmingham -786, Births more Blackburn -148, -193 Births more Brent -128, -348 Immigration more Bradford +185, -444 Births more Redbridge -210, -155 Births more Pendle -23, -120 Births more Tower Hamlets -28, -693 Births more research/migseg.htm Southwark -28, -693 Births more Luton -150, -89 Births more Burnley -30, -159 Births more

13 More mixing? More segregation? Increasing number of mixed wards 10% both White and Other: 1,070 (2001, from 864 in 1991) Mixed ethnic group 4 th largest group after White, Indian, Pakistani Half aged under 16 Index of segregation (dissimilarity, spread) Decreased for each ethnic group Among religions, highest for Jewish Index of polarisation (average proportion) Up for Pakistani and Bangladeshi to 17% for wards Reflects changing composition, not migration toward concentrations Migration away from Black and Asian areas Yes, of all groups In similar proportions

14 Migration Net migration with rest of UK England and Wales electoral wards Fifths of minority population Not White White Lowest minority ethnic population (2%) +9, ,189 Low (13%) +12,841-9,503 Medium (27%) ,382 High (43%) -8,238-11,570 Highest minority ethnic population (66%) -13,033-9,463 From highest as % of population -1.4% -2.0%

15 Conclusions Figures are not in dispute Decreasing segregation: not migration towards ones own group Increased geographical evenness, spread between areas Movement away from areas that are full up and/or poor housing Growing black and asian population in all areas More mixed areas More areas that have minority White These are usually diverse areas The debate has been based upon a type of analysis that suggests that too many Black people or too many Asians living together is a problem, while the same dominance by White people is acceptable. We find this suggestion offensive to the people of London. (Greater London Authority, 10 Nov 2005)

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