Cross-border commuting along the Dutch border: Regional and industrial variation in incoming commuting from Germany and Belgium

Transcription

1 Cross-border commuting along the Dutch border: Regional and industrial variation in incoming commuting from Germany and Belgium Arjen Edzes, Viktor Venhorst & Jouke van Dijk University of Groningen, Department of Economic Geography, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen Lisbon, ERSA,

2 2 Motivation 1. Cross-border issues (economy, safety, labour market, migration, governance) are a big theme in Europe (INTERREG) 2. Cross-border commuting can stimulate cross-border regional economies and solve discrepancies on the cross-border labour market 3. Specifically for the Dutch: cross-border issues of population decline and local financial responsibility for unemployed (exporting unemployed) 4. Lack of insight in actual figures but also lack of insight in drivers and impact of crossborder commuting 5. In this paper we will look at incoming commuters from Germany and Belgium and the relation with industrial and regional characteristics

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4 Population density 2012 Urban-rural typology

5 Cross-border commuting 2012 Source: European Labour Force Survey. NARSC November

6 Relevancy, theory and literature / different perspectives Individual perspectives versus regional perspectives: What moves people and what do they gain? Potential and Impact for regions Neo-classical economic perspectives versus sociological/socialconstructivist perspectives. What dominates the pattern: Economics (wages, job opportunities) or Culture (familiarity, language) 6 Complex interactions between housing and labour markets Shares of incoming commuters, %# 90%# 80%# 70%# 60%# Rest# 50%# Dutch#naAonality# German#naAonality# 40%# Belgian#naAonality# 30%# 20%# 10%# 0%# Belgium# Germany# Total# Total of incoming commuters, " " " " " " " " " " 0" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" total" BE" DE" NL" OV"

7 Exploratory research questions: 7 1. Do Dutch industrial sectors lean on incoming commuters from Belgium or Germany? 2. Do regional (labor market) characteristics explain the level of incoming commuters?

8 Expectations Catchment-area: incoming commuting more in border-regions Industrial sectors: variation in dependency of incoming commuters (no clear theory) Labour market: positive relations with job opportunities Housing-prices: relations with mean housing value (for Dutch positive, for Belgian and German negative) More western migrants have positive relations with incoming commuting More productive and smart regions attracts incoming commuters 8

9 The Netherlands employees Germany employees Belgium employees Weterings, A. & G. van Gessel-Dabekaussen (2015) Arbeidsmarkt zonder grenzen. PBL/CBS

10 10 Cross-border commuters with Belgium nationality Cross-border commuters with German nationality Weterings, A. & G. van Gessel-Dabekaussen (2015) Arbeidsmarkt zonder grenzen. PBL/CBS

11 Data An aggregated dataset over of persons who work in the Netherlands but live in Belgium or Germany (Nationality, Industry - Nace-2 digit, Region of work (NUTS-3) 2. Shortcomings: Only employed workers, based on tax registrations. No information on workers who are temporarily posted. 3. Addition of data on NUTS-3 level: employment * sector, mean housing value, GDP per capita, occupational levels, unemployment rate, proportion of (non) western foreigners 4. All information is coming from Statistics Netherlands.

12 Estimation approach Basic model with only year dummies and dummies for industries: Is there a difference in dependency of incoming commuting between industrial sectors? 2. Addition of regional variables: Do specific regional characteristics lead to more incoming commuting? 3. Analyses of residues: Do regions over- or underperform with regard to incoming commuting? All models estimated for - Commuters from Belgium (1 with Belgium nationality or 2 Dutch nationality) - Commuters from German (3 with German nationality or 4 Dutch nationality)

13 Descriptives Obs Mean Std, Min Max Commu?ng rcomm_bedetot ,011 0,027 0,000 0,493 Variables rcomm_be ,004 0,011 0,000 0,145 rcomm_be with Belgian Nat ,001 0,005 0,000 0,120 rcomm_be with Dutch Nat ,003 0,006 0,000 0,057 rcomm_de ,007 0,024 0,000 0,479 rcomm_de with German Nat ,003 0,017 0,000 0,435 rcomm_de with Dutch Nat ,002 0,008 0,000 0,317 Industrial Number of jobs in region*sector / ,111 0,162 0,000 1,281 Sector var Regional GDP per capita / ,331 0,088 0,175 0,686 Variables Unemployment rate / ,047 0,009 0,031 0,077 Prop self- employed ,149 0,016 0,122 0,197 Prop occup at level low ,085 0,010 0,057 0,114 Prop occup at level medium ,467 0,042 0,377 0,551 Prop occup at level high ,180 0,006 0,161 0,200 Prop occup at level scien?fic ,254 0,053 0,143 0,374 Prop occup at level unknown ,015 0,010 0,000 0,061 Mean housing value / ,230 0,040 0,150 0,357 Prop non- western foreign employees ,085 0,057 0,025 0,266 Prop western foreign employees ,085 0,031 0,044 0,189 Border classifica?on Three classifica?on of regions as border regions, non- border but nearby regions and non- border regions: 1) In general, 2) only for the Belgian commuters, 3) Only for the Dutch commuters 13

14 Belgium Be Nat Belgium NL Nat German Ger Nat German NL Nat Year (ref = 2008) ,000-0,000*** - 0,001* 0, ,000-0,000*** - 0,002*** 0, ,000-0,000*** - 0,002*** 0, ,000-0,001*** - 0,002*** 0,000 1 digit sector (ref = Agriculture) Mining, quarrying and man 0,002 0,001 0,002** 0,002*** Electricity, gas, steam etc. - 0,001 0,001 0,000 0,006* Water supply 0,000 0,001 0,004 0,003** Construc?on - 0,001 0,001 0,001 0,001** Wholesale and retail trade 0,000 0,001 0,001 0,001** Transporta?on and storage 0,000 0,001 0,004*** 0,002*** Accomoda?on and food service ac?vi??es - 0,001 0,000 0,000 0,000 Informa?on and communica?on 0,000 0,001 0,000 0,001** Financial and insurance ac?vi?es 0,000 0,005** 0,001 0,002*** Real estate ac?vi?es - 0,001 0,002 0,000 0,001 Professional, scien?fic and technical 0,000 0,001 0,000 0,001** Administra?ve and support service 0,001 0,003* 0,033*** 0,006*** Public administra?on and defence - 0,001 0,001-0,001** 0,001** Edua?on 0,000 0,001-0,001 0,001* Human health and social work 0,001 0,001-0,001 0,001 Arts, entertainment and recrea?on 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,001 Other service ac?vi?es - 0,001 0,000-0,001 0,001 Rest - 0,002* - 0,002*** - 0,001** - 0,001*** cons 0,002* 0,002*** 0,002*** 0,001** 14 N r2 0,028 0,032 0,198 0,041 r2_a 0,022 0,026 0,193 0,035

15 WITH SECTOR DUMMIES Belgium Be Nat Belgium NL Nat German Ger Nat German NL Nat Year (ref = 2008) ,000-0,001*** - 0,001* - 0,001*** ,000-0,002*** 0,000-0,002** ,000-0,002*** - 0,001-0,001*** ,000-0,003*** - 0,001-0,003*** Number of jobs in region*sector / ,001 0,001-0,001 0,002 Region (ref = Border) Non- border, but nearby - 0,003*** - 0,009*** - 0,003-0,005*** Non- border - 0,003*** - 0,011*** - 0,008*** - 0,007*** GDP per capita / ,004** - 0,002-0,005-0,005* Unemployment rate / 100-0,050 0,130*** - 0,020 0,139** Prop self- employed 0,016*** - 0,011* - 0,048* - 0,005 Prop occup at level low 0,036*** 0,037*** - 0,065-0,064 Prop occup at level high 0,024** - 0,004-0,159** - 0,005 Prop occup at level scien?fic - 0,007** 0,005-0,024-0,013* Mean housing value / ,013*** 0,012** 0,002-0,002 Prop non- western foreign - 0,011*** - 0,013*** 0,009-0,005 Prop western foreign 0,069*** 0,044*** 0,042*** 0,005 cons - 0,005* - 0,001 0,052** 0, N 3633, , r2 0,479 0,645 0,248 0,196 r2_a 0,474 0,641 0,241 0,188

16 Analysis of residues total incoming commuting

17 Analysis of residues Belgium

18 Analysis of residues Germany

19 19 Conclusion 1. Border regions are most important, but also non-border regions attrackt incoming commuters 2. No clear pattern in industrial sector dependency of incoming commuters from Belgium, for Germany administrative services is important because of Temporarily Employment- and Posting Agencies. 3. No clear effect of labour market characteristics on incoming commuting (not for employment, but preliminary results show also no relation with vacancies). Level of unemployment is only relevant for Dutch cross-border commuters. 4. No effect of total number of jobs 5. Urban-non urban dimensions in regional characteristics; No effect of Smart regions

20 Thank you for your attention 20