COULD WE LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD? SOME (VERY) SPECULATIVE REMARKS ON NONMARITAL FERTILITY. Plenary: The Rise of Nonmarital Fertility
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1 COULD WE LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD? SOME (VERY) SPECULATIVE REMARKS ON NONMARITAL FERTILITY Plenary: The Rise of Nonmarital Fertility Lawrence L. Wu New York University August 2015
2 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 1 PLAN
3 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 1 PLAN (very) speculative remarks
4 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 1 PLAN (very) speculative remarks almost no data/empirical results
5 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 1 PLAN (very) speculative remarks almost no data/empirical results behavioral processes underlying nonmarital fertility
6 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 1 PLAN (very) speculative remarks almost no data/empirical results behavioral processes underlying nonmarital fertility nonmarital fertility as trickier involves (at least) two processes: marriage and fertility
7 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 1 PLAN (very) speculative remarks almost no data/empirical results behavioral processes underlying nonmarital fertility nonmarital fertility as trickier involves (at least) two processes: marriage and fertility will argue that long acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) have the potential to level the playing field
8 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 2 PROCESSES UNDERLYING PREMARITAL FIRST BIRTHS
9 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 2 PROCESSES UNDERLYING PREMARITAL FIRST BIRTHS To simplify, will focus on first births to never-married women ( premarital first birth )
10 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 2 PROCESSES UNDERLYING PREMARITAL FIRST BIRTHS To simplify, will focus on first births to never-married women ( premarital first birth ) Why we care: high (highest) rates of poverty among these mothers and their children
11 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 2 PROCESSES UNDERLYING PREMARITAL FIRST BIRTHS To simplify, will focus on first births to never-married women ( premarital first birth ) Why we care: high (highest) rates of poverty among these mothers and their children Idea: Women begin life in an origin state in which they are never-married and childless; then the study of premarital first births will necessarily involve (at least) the following:
12 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 3 PROCESSES (cont)
13 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 3 PROCESSES (cont) Marriage process
14 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 3 PROCESSES (cont) Marriage process at age t, some never-married and childless women will enter a first marriage, while others will remain never-married
15 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 3 PROCESSES (cont) Marriage process at age t, some never-married and childless women will enter a first marriage, while others will remain never-married Fertility process
16 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 3 PROCESSES (cont) Marriage process at age t, some never-married and childless women will enter a first marriage, while others will remain never-married Fertility process at age t, some never-married and childless women will have a first birth, while others will remain childless
17 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 4 TWO THEMES IN THE LITERATURE
18 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 4 TWO THEMES IN THE LITERATURE Barriers to marriage
19 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 4 TWO THEMES IN THE LITERATURE Barriers to marriage Wilson (1987): growing dearth of marriageable black males due to structural economic change
20 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 4 TWO THEMES IN THE LITERATURE Barriers to marriage Wilson (1987): growing dearth of marriageable black males due to structural economic change Edin and Kefalas (2005): bar for marriage has increased for both advantaged and disadvantaged groups
21 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 4 TWO THEMES IN THE LITERATURE Barriers to marriage Wilson (1987): growing dearth of marriageable black males due to structural economic change Edin and Kefalas (2005): bar for marriage has increased for both advantaged and disadvantaged groups Cherlin (2014): second gilded age implies growing income and wealth inequality but also growing gap in who marries
22 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 5 TWO THEMES (cont)
23 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 5 TWO THEMES (cont) Fertility and its proximate determinants
24 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 5 TWO THEMES (cont) Fertility and its proximate determinants sex while never-married pregnancy how a pregnancy is resolved premarital first birth
25 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 5 TWO THEMES (cont) Fertility and its proximate determinants sex while never-married pregnancy how a pregnancy is resolved premarital first birth England (2015): contraceptive behavior as important
26 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 5 TWO THEMES (cont) Fertility and its proximate determinants sex while never-married pregnancy how a pregnancy is resolved premarital first birth England (2015): contraceptive behavior as important (older demographic literature)
27 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 5 TWO THEMES (cont) Fertility and its proximate determinants sex while never-married pregnancy how a pregnancy is resolved premarital first birth England (2015): contraceptive behavior as important (older demographic literature) Sawhill (2014): drifting into sex and parenthood without marriage
28 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 6 SOME STYLIZED FACTS
29 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 6 SOME STYLIZED FACTS Premarital sex
30 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 6 SOME STYLIZED FACTS Premarital sex among never-married, more than 9 of 10 are sexually active
31 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 6 SOME STYLIZED FACTS Premarital sex among never-married, more than 9 of 10 are sexually active small differences in age at first intercourse (after background controls) between advantaged and disadvantaged groups
32 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 7 SOME STYLIZED FACTS (cont)
33 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 7 SOME STYLIZED FACTS (cont) Relationships
34 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 7 SOME STYLIZED FACTS (cont) Relationships (anecdotal) college students are not avoiding sex or relationships, nor are those who do not go on to college
35 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 7 SOME STYLIZED FACTS (cont) Relationships (anecdotal) college students are not avoiding sex or relationships, nor are those who do not go on to college Contraception and premarital first births
36 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 7 SOME STYLIZED FACTS (cont) Relationships (anecdotal) college students are not avoiding sex or relationships, nor are those who do not go on to college Contraception and premarital first births premarital first births now occur in the late teens and early 20s
37 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 7 SOME STYLIZED FACTS (cont) Relationships (anecdotal) college students are not avoiding sex or relationships, nor are those who do not go on to college Contraception and premarital first births premarital first births now occur in the late teens and early 20s vast majority of premarital first births are unplanned
38 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 8 WORKING HYPOTHESES
39 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 8 WORKING HYPOTHESES Working hypotheses from above
40 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 8 WORKING HYPOTHESES Working hypotheses from above advantaged groups put considerable effort into avoiding a birth until they decide to start trying
41 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 8 WORKING HYPOTHESES Working hypotheses from above advantaged groups put considerable effort into avoiding a birth until they decide to start trying less advantaged population as contracepting less effectively (yet another way in which the US differs from Europe)
42 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 8 WORKING HYPOTHESES Working hypotheses from above advantaged groups put considerable effort into avoiding a birth until they decide to start trying less advantaged population as contracepting less effectively (yet another way in which the US differs from Europe) fairly good evidence, both quantitative and qualitative, consistent with the above
43 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 9 THREE QUESTIONS
44 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 9 THREE QUESTIONS Why is it that some contracept effectively and others do not?
45 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 9 THREE QUESTIONS Why is it that some contracept effectively and others do not? Could we level the playing field?
46 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 9 THREE QUESTIONS Why is it that some contracept effectively and others do not? Could we level the playing field? And if we could, what might be some consequences?
47 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 10 CONTRACEPTIVE FAILURE RATES (CDC)
48 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 10 CONTRACEPTIVE FAILURE RATES (CDC) Contraceptive Unintended pregnancies method per 1000 women Implant 0.5 IUD 2 to 8 Pill 90 Condom 180 Withdrawal 220 Rhythm 240
49 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 11 LARC TRENDS NCHS (Branum et al. 2015)
50 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 11 LARC TRENDS NCHS (Branum et al. 2015) NSFG survey %
51 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 12 TAKE-AWAY
52 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 12 TAKE-AWAY LARCs are highly effective
53 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 12 TAKE-AWAY LARCs are highly effective LARC use still low, particularly in most relevant age groups
54 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 13 THOUGHT EXPERIMENT
55 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 13 THOUGHT EXPERIMENT Randomly assign young women from disadvantaged groups to a treatment group (info about LARCs) vs. a control group (no info about LARC)
56 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 13 THOUGHT EXPERIMENT Randomly assign young women from disadvantaged groups to a treatment group (info about LARCs) vs. a control group (no info about LARC) Treatment: free access to (say) an IUD; no cost to remove IUD; etc
57 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 13 THOUGHT EXPERIMENT Randomly assign young women from disadvantaged groups to a treatment group (info about LARCs) vs. a control group (no info about LARC) Treatment: free access to (say) an IUD; no cost to remove IUD; etc minimizes contraceptive effort, hopefully changing what were once unplanned births into planned births
58 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 13 THOUGHT EXPERIMENT Randomly assign young women from disadvantaged groups to a treatment group (info about LARCs) vs. a control group (no info about LARC) Treatment: free access to (say) an IUD; no cost to remove IUD; etc minimizes contraceptive effort, hopefully changing what were once unplanned births into planned births follow treatment and controls for many years
59 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 13 THOUGHT EXPERIMENT Randomly assign young women from disadvantaged groups to a treatment group (info about LARCs) vs. a control group (no info about LARC) Treatment: free access to (say) an IUD; no cost to remove IUD; etc minimizes contraceptive effort, hopefully changing what were once unplanned births into planned births follow treatment and controls for many years Potential to level the playing field
60 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 14 NON-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM ST. LOUIS AND COLORADO
61 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 14 NON-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM ST. LOUIS AND COLORADO Temporarily funded initiatives providing free access to LARCs
62 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 14 NON-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM ST. LOUIS AND COLORADO Temporarily funded initiatives providing free access to LARCs neither had random assignment to treatment vs. control
63 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 14 NON-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM ST. LOUIS AND COLORADO Temporarily funded initiatives providing free access to LARCs neither had random assignment to treatment vs. control trends in Colorado as a potentially serious confound
64 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 14 NON-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM ST. LOUIS AND COLORADO Temporarily funded initiatives providing free access to LARCs neither had random assignment to treatment vs. control trends in Colorado as a potentially serious confound still, suggestive evidence of declines in teen, unplanned, and nonmarital births
65 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 14 NON-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM ST. LOUIS AND COLORADO Temporarily funded initiatives providing free access to LARCs neither had random assignment to treatment vs. control trends in Colorado as a potentially serious confound still, suggestive evidence of declines in teen, unplanned, and nonmarital births in St. Louis, no increase in STI s, considerable satisfaction (and continuation rates) for IUDs
66 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 15 CHURNING IN THE SCHOOLING TO WORK TRANSITION
67 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 15 CHURNING IN THE SCHOOLING TO WORK TRANSITION Story by labor economists re churning in the schooling to work transition
68 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 15 CHURNING IN THE SCHOOLING TO WORK TRANSITION Story by labor economists re churning in the schooling to work transition each young adult entering the labor market possesses a vector of attributes
69 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 15 CHURNING IN THE SCHOOLING TO WORK TRANSITION Story by labor economists re churning in the schooling to work transition each young adult entering the labor market possesses a vector of attributes employers seek attributes, not all of which are knowable at time of hire
70 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 15 CHURNING IN THE SCHOOLING TO WORK TRANSITION Story by labor economists re churning in the schooling to work transition each young adult entering the labor market possesses a vector of attributes employers seek attributes, not all of which are knowable at time of hire mismatches lead to labor market churning
71 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 15 CHURNING IN THE SCHOOLING TO WORK TRANSITION Story by labor economists re churning in the schooling to work transition each young adult entering the labor market possesses a vector of attributes employers seek attributes, not all of which are knowable at time of hire mismatches lead to labor market churning churning declines with time as workers find better matches
72 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 16 COULD RELATIONSHIPS BE AT LEAST AS COMPLICATED AS JOBS?
73 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 16 COULD RELATIONSHIPS BE AT LEAST AS COMPLICATED AS JOBS? Relevant issues:
74 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 16 COULD RELATIONSHIPS BE AT LEAST AS COMPLICATED AS JOBS? Relevant issues: early ages at a premarital first birth
75 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 16 COULD RELATIONSHIPS BE AT LEAST AS COMPLICATED AS JOBS? Relevant issues: early ages at a premarital first birth majority of these births are unplanned
76 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 16 COULD RELATIONSHIPS BE AT LEAST AS COMPLICATED AS JOBS? Relevant issues: early ages at a premarital first birth majority of these births are unplanned many nonmarital births occur within in relationships that turn out to be fragile
77 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 16 COULD RELATIONSHIPS BE AT LEAST AS COMPLICATED AS JOBS? Relevant issues: early ages at a premarital first birth majority of these births are unplanned many nonmarital births occur within in relationships that turn out to be fragile plausible that a higher bar for marriage implies a higher bar for relationships
78 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 16 COULD RELATIONSHIPS BE AT LEAST AS COMPLICATED AS JOBS? Relevant issues: early ages at a premarital first birth majority of these births are unplanned many nonmarital births occur within in relationships that turn out to be fragile plausible that a higher bar for marriage implies a higher bar for relationships McLanahan and Beck (2010): characteristics of the guy she is with gets better over time
79 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 17 (VERY) SPECULATIVE WHAT IF LARCs
80 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 17 (VERY) SPECULATIVE WHAT IF LARCs H1: could let young women churn to a better relationship
81 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 17 (VERY) SPECULATIVE WHAT IF LARCs H1: could let young women churn to a better relationship H2: should reduce unplanned pregnancies, abortions, multi-partner fertility; delay age at a first birth
82 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 17 (VERY) SPECULATIVE WHAT IF LARCs H1: could let young women churn to a better relationship H2: should reduce unplanned pregnancies, abortions, multi-partner fertility; delay age at a first birth H3: could improve her work (and possibly educational) outcomes
83 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 17 (VERY) SPECULATIVE WHAT IF LARCs H1: could let young women churn to a better relationship H2: should reduce unplanned pregnancies, abortions, multi-partner fertility; delay age at a first birth H3: could improve her work (and possibly educational) outcomes H4: might even lead to more marriages
84 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 17 (VERY) SPECULATIVE WHAT IF LARCs H1: could let young women churn to a better relationship H2: should reduce unplanned pregnancies, abortions, multi-partner fertility; delay age at a first birth H3: could improve her work (and possibly educational) outcomes H4: might even lead to more marriages Bottom line: potential to yield better outcomes for her, him, and the (planned) kid
85 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 18 CONCLUSION
86 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 18 CONCLUSION Potential for LARCs to level the playing field
87 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 18 CONCLUSION Potential for LARCs to level the playing field LARCs could let young women from disadvantaged circumstances churn to a better relationship
88 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 18 CONCLUSION Potential for LARCs to level the playing field LARCs could let young women from disadvantaged circumstances churn to a better relationship should reduce unplanned pregnancies and births
89 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 18 CONCLUSION Potential for LARCs to level the playing field LARCs could let young women from disadvantaged circumstances churn to a better relationship should reduce unplanned pregnancies and births potential for better outcomes for her, him, and (a planned) kid
90 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 18 CONCLUSION Potential for LARCs to level the playing field LARCs could let young women from disadvantaged circumstances churn to a better relationship should reduce unplanned pregnancies and births potential for better outcomes for her, him, and (a planned) kid these are nevertheless disadvantaged populations, so LARCs can t and won t solve all problems
91 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 19 CONCLUSION (cont)
92 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 19 CONCLUSION (cont) Processes underlying nonmarital fertility
93 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 19 CONCLUSION (cont) Processes underlying nonmarital fertility sex as part of the process leading to nonmarital fertility
94 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 19 CONCLUSION (cont) Processes underlying nonmarital fertility sex as part of the process leading to nonmarital fertility barriers to marriage are almost certainly part of the problem
95 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 19 CONCLUSION (cont) Processes underlying nonmarital fertility sex as part of the process leading to nonmarital fertility barriers to marriage are almost certainly part of the problem but the literature sometimes takes the birth as a given
96 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 19 CONCLUSION (cont) Processes underlying nonmarital fertility sex as part of the process leading to nonmarital fertility barriers to marriage are almost certainly part of the problem but the literature sometimes takes the birth as a given sensible to ponder both the sex and marriage parts of nonmarital fertility
97 ASA 2015: Could We Level the Playing Field? p. 20 THANK YOU
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