Chapter 6: Human Population & Its Impact How many is too many? 7 billion currently; 1.6 mill. more each week ~2.4 bill. more by 2050 Developing 82%

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1 Chapter 6: Human Population & Its Impact How many is too many? 7 billion currently; 1.6 mill. more each week ~2.4 bill. more by 2050 Developing 82% of population Developed high resource use; (more coming India & China) Population control? Opposing Viewpoints Cassandras Too many people already; something bad coming Cornucopians Technological advances will overcome environmental resistance More people = More stress? Infectious diseases Biodiversity losses Water shortages Ocean/Freshwater Pollution Affluency & environmental degradation Climate change (death rates rise?) Reasons for Growth Moved into nearly all climates Early & modern agriculture Better nutrition Increased food supply & distribution Control of infectious diseases Sanitation systems Antibiotics Vaccines Uneven Distribution Developing countries increasing 15 times faster than developed countries By 2050, 97% of growth will be in developing countries China & India have 36% world s population Fertility Rates Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Average # of children born to a woman during reproductive yrs Replacement-level Fertility Rate Average # of children a couple must have to replace themselves 2.1 = developed countries 2.5 = developing ( ) U.S. Growing Rapidly TFR peaked at 3.7 (1957) during baby boom TFR slowed (& population growth) since Population still growing (faster than China s) Births & Immigration Cultural Changes 1907 Leading cause of death Pneumonia, TB, diarrhea 90% of doctors had no college education 1 in 5 adults illiterate Avg wage = 22 cents per hour 9,000 cars; 144 miles of paved road Marijuana, heroin, morphine OTCs Census Bureau predicts mill mill.

2 Rule of 70 Estimate doubling time of population by dividing growth rate into 70 Growth rate = 2% 70/2 = 35 Doubling time is 35 years TFR & Birth Rate Factors Children part of labor force (developing countries) Cost of raising & educating children Birth & TFR lower in developed b/c expensive to raise kids Private & public pension If you have pension; need less kids to take care of old you Urbanization Urban areas = better family planning Rural areas need farm workers Educational & employment opportunities for women Women working or going to school; not having kids Infant mortality rate Low death rate = fewer replacement kids Average age of woman at birth of 1 st child Marry later = fewer kids Availability of legal abortions More abortions = fewer kids Availability of birth control methods More condoms = fewer kids Religious beliefs, traditions, & culture Some favor large families Some against contraception Family Planning Helps couple choose when & how many kids to have Provides info on birth control & health care for women/babies Does it work o Bangladesh 157 mil. people live in Wisconsin-size area Matlab Project visits from local women offering counseling, education, free contraceptives o 55% drop developing s TFR o Thailand ( ) Growth rate 3.2% to 0.5% TFR 6.4 to 1.6 o Iran ( ) Growth rate 2.5%-1.4% Good ol USA o ; US provides $46.5 million to UN Population Fund Family planning, HIV/AIDS & teen pregnancy prevention o ; US withheld b/c it supports or participates in management of a program of coercive abortion or involuntary sterilization E.U. kicked in our share The Answer is Equal Sexes Women have fewer children o Educated o Job outside home o Human rights aren t suppressed o Children are better cared for, healthier, & better educated

3 Other Population Factors Migration Economic improvement Religious freedom Political freedom Wars Environmental refugees 25 mill in mill by 2050? U.S. Immigration Since 1820 U.S. has had 2 times as much as all others 40% of current growth o European o 1960-present 53% Latin, 25% Asia, 14% Europe Future Immigration o mill illegal immigrants o Who wants Low-paying jobs Farm jobs o Baby boomers? Who takes their jobs? Who pays for them? Voting power? Global Age Structure 28% (1.9 bil) under 15 yrs 30% in developing 41% in Africa 17% in developed Population gonna keep rising Old Populations Size declines rapidly Japan o mill. o mill. Gov t strain high medicare & social security Labor shortages, less taxes Russia, Germany, Czech, Italy, Spain Death Rate Factors Life expectancy Avg # of yrs an infant can expect to live Infant mortality rate # of babies that die before their first birthday U.S. Problems? 78; 42 nd life expectancy o 45 mill w/o healthcare o Adult obesity 6.6; 41 st infant mortality o Inadequate healthcare for poor women & babies o Drug addiction in pregnant moms o High birth rate among teens

4 AIDS Worldwide Many young adults die (loss of most productive workers) Sharp drop in life expectancy International community o Reduce spread of HIV thru education & health care o Financial assistance & volunteers HIV/AIDS in Africa o Infects 1 in 5 people in southern African nations o Kills babies born to infected mothers o Orphaned 14 million children o Cut 19 years off life expectancies in parts of southern Africa o 1999, Zambia lost 600 teachers to AIDS (300 new grads to replace them) o Rwanda, 1 in 3 college educated residents of capital city infected o South Africa loses $7 billion per year to lose of labor o Income/food declining, medical expenses/ debt skyrocketing Route to Stable Population Invest in family planning Reduce poverty Elevate social & economic status of women India mil & Family planning begins bil & 1.55% growth/yr 2025 should pass China bil Problems on the Horizon 1 in 4 poor; 50% of kids malnourished 18% rural had sanitations Almost half labor force unemployed Less girls b/c sons favored Environmental Problems 18% world population; 2.3% land resources & 2% of forests Half of cropland degraded due to erosion 2/3 of water seriously polluted Major cities = Air pollution China s One-Child Policy Beginning 1949; Population ~540 mil. Mao = food production/ distribution & public health improve 1970; 790 mil. & 5.8 TFR Depleted water, eroded soil, leveled forests, & polluted air Good Effort Education/outreach efforts to encourage later marriage w/ less kids Increased accessibility of contraceptives & abortion BR dropped (not fast enough) One Child Policy Restricts married, urban couples to having only one child Exemptions Twins, rural couples, ethnic minorities, & parents without any siblings themselves One Child Family Better access to schools, medical care, housing, government jobs Longer maternity leave for mother Two+ Child Family Social scorn/ridicule, employment discrimination, monetary fines In some cases, fines exceeded half of family s annual income

5 Or Not? Baby boom to one child policy 100 mil 65+ yr olds in 2005; 236 mil in 2030 China s Sex Ratios 2000; 120 boys/100 girls (some places 135/100) Normal = 106 boys/100 girls Reasons? Selective Abortion of females Abandonment Black Market Demographic Transition Model Pre-industrial High birth rate (BR) + high death rate (DR) = slow growth Transitional Improved food supply, sanitation, & medicine DR falls + BR same = rapid growth Industrial Women s education up, urbanization, less subsistent farms, contraception DR low + BR falls = slowing growth Postindustrial DR low + BR low = little to no growth DR can rise do to lifestyle Demographic Trap Population grows faster than economy Nation gets stuck in stage 1 or 2 Rising death rate AIDS in Africa Lack of scientists & engineers (94% work in industrialized world) Worker shortage Not enough money; too much debt

The Human Population and Its Impact. Chapter 6

The Human Population and Its Impact Chapter 6 Core Case Study: Are There Too Many of Us? (1) Estimated 2.4 billion more people by 2050 Are there too many people already? Will technological advances overcome