News Release. A Challenging Road to 2020 Voters more hopeful than fearful about the future EMBARGOED UNTIL 5:00 AM ET SEPTEMBER 5, 2018

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1 News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL 5:00 AM ET SEPTEMBER 5, 2018 Contacts: Andy Garman Wixted & Company (cell) Debra Lukehart Grinnell College Vice President, Communications A Challenging Road to 2020 Voters more hopeful than fearful about the future GRINNELL, Iowa The inaugural Grinnell College National Poll shows President Donald Trump faces a challenging road to re-election in The new poll by the elite liberal arts college in Grinnell, Iowa, interviewed 1,002 individuals and 779 likely voters and was completed during the Labor Day weekend by Des Moines-based Selzer & Co. It shows that if the 2020 vote were held today, just 36 percent of likely voters in this fall s election would definitely vote to re-elect President Trump. About one in six (17 percent) would consider someone else, and a full 43 percent say they would definitely vote to elect someone else president. The Grinnell College National Poll measured support among demographic groups that were key to Trump s 2016 victory. Among several key constituencies, Trump s majority support comes from: White men without college degrees (55 percent) Rural voters (52 percent) Evangelical voters (51 percent) Among likely suburban voters, another group that Trump carried in 2016, 49 percent say they would definitely vote for someone else and 20 percent would consider voting for someone other than Trump, while just 27 percent say they would definitely vote to re-elect Trump. This is a challenging landscape for President Trump, said Peter Hanson, an associate professor of political science and specialist in American politics at Grinnell College. He has not succeeded in broadening his base. Two years is a long time in politics, and a lot will depend on his Democratic opponent, but a substantial majority of likely voters are either seeking new leadership or ready to consider it in 2020.

2 His numbers with women are on the gloomy side. Just 29 percent of women overall say they would definitely vote to re-elect the President, said poll director J. Ann Selzer. His margin with white women is slightly higher at 36 percent, but it is lower with suburban women at 26 percent. Other findings from the Grinnell College National Poll include: Trump approval: Trump s approval rating is higher among likely voters (43 percent) than it is among the general population (39 percent), although 50 percent of both groups disapprove of the job President Trump is doing. Forty-five percent of likely voters view Trump favorably and 51 percent view him unfavorably. Overall mood: Asked how their feelings have changed about Trump since he took office, 42 percent of likely voters say they are now more favorable, including 26 percent who say a lot more favorable. But a majority of 53 percent say their views are more unfavorable, including 44 percent who say they are a lot more unfavorable. The Future: Likely voters are hopeful about the future of the nation. With 60 percent saying they are more hopeful about the way things will be following this year s midterm elections, while 30 percent say they are more fearful. Responses were similar about the 2020 election with 59 percent expressing hope and 29 percent fear. The optimism was broad-based, including both Trump and Clinton voters, with men more optimistic than women. Congress: Likely voter attitudes towards Congress are more negative than positive, with the House of Representatives receiving a 53 percent unfavorable rating and 31 percent favorable. A similar ratio holds for the U.S. Senate, at 55 percent unfavorable and 30 percent favorable. Supreme Court: As hearings on a new Supreme Court nominee begin, likely midterm voters voice positive feelings for the court 59 percent favorable, with 24 percent unfavorable. For more information on the poll, please visit For poll results and video interviews conducted with Grinnell College faculty, please visit: About Grinnell College Grinnell College, a private liberal arts college in Iowa founded in 1846, provides individually advised learning for intellectually engaged students to produce graduates who are prepared to navigate the world s complexities and responsibly contribute to the common good. Grinnell enrolls 1,700 students from around the world, who earn B.A. degrees in a range of disciplines across the humanities, arts and sciences. Grinnell's rigorous academic program and campus life emphasize excellence in education through free inquiry and the open exchange of ideas, a diverse community and social responsibility and action. More information about Grinnell College is available at About Selzer & Company Selzer & Company, a Des Moines-based company founded by J. Ann Selzer, Ph.D., is a nationally recognized, industry leading polling and audience research firm. Since 1994, Selzer & Company has worked with a wide variety of clients, including healthcare organizations, financial institutions, universities, advocacy groups and technology start-ups. More information about Selzer & Company is available at ###

3 GRINNELL COLLEGE NATIONAL POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2173 1,002 general population ages 18 and over August 29-September 2, 2018 Including 779 likely voters in the 2018 midterm election Margin of error: ± 3.1 percentage points based on all Weighted by age, sex, race, Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points based on likely voters and educational attainment METHODOLOGY The Grinnell College National Poll, conducted August 29-September 2 for Grinnell College by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, IA, is based on telephone interviews with 1,002 U.S. adults ages 18 or older, including 779 likely voters in the 2018 general election. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, race, and educational attainment to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Percentages based on the full probability sample of 1,002 respondents may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents such as by gender or age have a larger margin of error. Results based on likely voters in the 2018 general election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For media inquiries, contact Andy Garman at agarman@thinkwixted.com. For additional technical information about this study, contact Michelle Yeoman at myeoman@selzerco.com. Republishing the copyrighted Grinnell College National Poll without credit to Grinnell College is prohibited. POLL QUESTIONS Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. First, I just need to confirm in what state you live. (If needed:) People sometimes take their phone number when they move to another state, so we just need to determine what state I m talking to. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? All LV* *Based on likely voters in the 2018 general election Approve Disapprove 11 7 Not sure SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 1

4 Based on likely voters in the 2018 general election. Now, I m going to mention some people and groups in the news recently. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don t know enough to answer, just say so. (Record don t know as not sure. Rotate list.) Net Fav Net Unfav Very Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Donald Trump, president of the United States The U.S. House of Representatives The U.S. Senate The U.S. Supreme Court Not Sure How likely is it you will vote in the November general election will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote? LV 100 Definitely vote Ask next question - Probably vote - Might or might not vote Skip to vote to re-elect - Probably not vote - Refused/not sure If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, which party s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: The [DEMOCRATIC] candidate or the [REPUBLICAN] candidate? (If not sure, ask:) Which way are you leaning toward the [REPUBLICAN] candidate or the [DEMOCRATIC] candidate? LV 43 Democratic candidate 2 Lean Democratic candidate 41 Republican candidate 2 Lean Republican candidate 3 Other (VOL) 9 Not sure If a vote for president of the United States were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect President Trump, consider someone else, or definitely vote to elect someone else, or would you not vote? LV 36 Definitely vote to re-elect Trump 17 Consider someone else 43 Definitely vote to elect someone else - Would not vote 3 Not sure SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 2

5 Since he took office in January of 2017, would you describe your feelings for President Trump as becoming a lot more favorable, a little more favorable, a little more unfavorable, or a lot more unfavorable? LV 26 A lot more favorable 16 A little more favorable 9 A little more unfavorable 44 A lot more unfavorable 4 No change (VOL) 1 Not sure Based on likely voters in the 2018 general election. Thinking about [ITEM FROM LIST], are you more hopeful or more fearful of what things will be like in the nation overall? More Hopeful More Fearful Not Sure After the upcoming midterm elections in November After the next presidential election in SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 3

6 Q2--DO YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF THE JOB DONALD TRUMP IS DOING AS PRESIDENT? APP Compostn 43% 84% 4% 38% 49% 37% 37% 43% 45% 47% 90% 3% DIS Compostn 50% 9% 91% 53% 45% 56% 54% 49% 50% 48% 5% 92% NS Compostn 7% 7% 5% 10% 7% 7% 9% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5%

7 Q3A--DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: FAVORABILITY FAVORABLE Compostn 45% 85% 8% 40% 53% 38% 37% 44% 49% 52% 90% 7% UNFAVORABLE Compostn 51% 11% 89% 55% 45% 57% 61% 47% 49% 46% 6% 89% NS Compostn 4% 4% 4% 5% 2% 6% 2% 8% 2% 2% 4% 4%

8 Q3D--THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: FAVORABILITY FAVORABLE Compostn 31% 46% 19% 24% 36% 27% 34% 28% 31% 33% 43% 18% UNFAVORABLE Compostn 53% 37% 69% 59% 54% 53% 44% 58% 55% 56% 40% 70% NS Compostn 15% 17% 11% 17% 11% 20% 22% 15% 13% 11% 17% 12%

9 Q3E--THE U.S. SENATE: FAVORABILITY FAVORABLE Compostn 30% 42% 20% 25% 32% 27% 24% 31% 32% 31% 41% 18% UNFAVORABLE Compostn 55% 39% 70% 57% 57% 52% 51% 54% 57% 59% 43% 71% NS Compostn 16% 19% 10% 18% 10% 20% 25% 16% 11% 10% 16% 11%

10 Q3F--THE U.S. SUPREME COURT: FAVORABILITY FAVORABLE Compostn 59% 70% 48% 58% 60% 57% 40% 62% 64% 64% 72% 49% UNFAVORABLE Compostn 24% 15% 35% 24% 26% 22% 36% 21% 21% 20% 15% 32% NS Compostn 17% 16% 17% 19% 14% 21% 24% 16% 15% 15% 13% 18%

11 Q5--IF THE ELECTIONS FOR THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES WERE BEING HELD TODAY, WHICH PARTY'S CANDIDATE WOULD YOU VOTE FOR IN YOUR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: THE [DEMOCRATIC] CANDIDATE OR THE [REPUBLICAN] CANDIDATE? (IF NOT SURE:) WHICH WAY ARE YOU LEANIN DEM CAND Compostn 43% 3% 91% 35% 39% 48% 41% 43% 45% 44% 3% 86% LEAN DEM CAND Compostn 2% 0% 2% 6% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 0% 4% REP CAND Compostn 41% 85% 3% 28% 46% 35% 37% 38% 44% 45% 83% 4% LEAN REP CAND Compostn 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% OTH Compostn 3% 2% 8% 3% 4% 5% 5% 1% 1% 3% 1% NS Compostn 9% 8% 4% 21% 8% 9% 12% 11% 6% 6% 8% 5%

12 Q6--IF A VOTE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WERE HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU DEFINITELY VOTE TO RE-ELECT PRESIDENT TRUMP, CONSIDER SOMEONE ELSE, OR DEFINITELY VOTE TO ELECT SOMEONE ELSE, OR WOULD YOU NOT VOTE? DEF VOTE TO RE-ELECT TRUMPCompostn 36% 72% 5% 26% 43% 29% 26% 37% 40% 40% 78% 4% CONSIDER SOMEONE ELSE Compostn 17% 18% 13% 23% 16% 17% 27% 13% 14% 15% 15% 14% DEF VOTE TO ELECT SOMEONE Compostn 43% 6% 80% 47% 37% 50% 44% 44% 43% 43% 3% 80% ELSE WOULD NOT VOTE Compostn 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% NS Compostn 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 2%

13 Q7--SINCE HE TOOK OFFICE IN JANUARY OF 2017, WOULD YOU DESCRIBE YOUR FEELINGS FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP AS BECOMING A LOT MORE FAVORABLE, A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE, A LITTLE MORE UNFAVORABLE, OR A LOT MORE UNFAVORABLE? A LOT MORE FAVORABLE Compostn 26% 51% 4% 21% 32% 21% 16% 29% 29% 29% 56% 2% A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE Compostn 16% 29% 4% 12% 17% 16% 27% 12% 14% 14% 28% 4% A LITTLE MORE UNFAVORABLECompostn 9% 6% 11% 12% 8% 9% 9% 12% 7% 6% 5% 10% A LOT MORE UNFAVORABLE Compostn 44% 7% 79% 47% 37% 51% 42% 43% 46% 47% 4% 82% NO CHANGE Compostn 4% 6% 1% 6% 5% 3% 6% 3% 4% 3% 7% 1% NS Compostn 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%

14 Q9A--THINKING ABOUT AFTER THE UPCOMING MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN NOVEMBER, ARE YOU MORE HOPEFUL OR MORE FEARFUL OF WHAT THINGS WILL BE LIKE IN THE NATION OVERALL? MORE HOPEFUL Compostn 60% 66% 59% 53% 66% 55% 55% 59% 63% 62% 68% 60% MORE FEARFUL Compostn 30% 23% 35% 34% 23% 36% 39% 31% 25% 26% 21% 34% NS Compostn 10% 12% 6% 13% 11% 9% 7% 10% 12% 11% 11% 7%

15 Q9B--THINKING ABOUT AFTER THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2020, ARE YOU MORE HOPEFUL OR MORE FEARFUL OF WHAT THINGS WILL BE LIKE IN THE NATION OVERALL? MORE HOPEFUL Compostn 59% 67% 52% 57% 64% 54% 54% 61% 59% 55% 71% 51% MORE FEARFUL Compostn 29% 19% 36% 34% 24% 34% 37% 27% 27% 27% 17% 37% NS Compostn 13% 14% 13% 9% 12% 13% 10% 12% 14% 18% 12% 12%

455 Democratic likely caucusgoers 1,838 active registered voter contacts. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

455 Democratic likely caucusgoers 1,838 active registered voter contacts. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. DES MOINES REGISTER/CNN/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2182 December 10-13, 2018 450 istered Republicans 503 registered Republican contacts Margin of error: ±4.6 percentage points weighted