Supreme Court s Favorability Edges Below 50%
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- Lesley Warren
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1 JULY 24, 2013 Blacks Views of Court Turn More Negative Supreme Court s Favorability Edges Below 50% FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS Michael Dimock Director Carroll Doherty Associate Director 1615 L St, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C Tel (202) Fax (202)
2 Blacks Views of Court Turn More Negative Supreme Court s Favorability Edges Below 50% The Supreme Court s favorability rating has edged below 50% for the first time in nearly three decades of Pew Research Center polling. Currently, 48% have a favorable opinion of the court while 38% have an unfavorable opinion. Supreme Court s Declining Favorability Overall view of the U.S. Supreme Court 100 In March, before the court s end-of-term decisions on same-sex marriage and the Voting Rights Act, 52% had a favorable impression of the Supreme Court while 31% had an unfavorable opinion. The national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted July among 1,480 adults nationwide, finds that African Americans views of the court have become much more negative in the aftermath of the court s decisions. 77 Favorable Unfavorable PEW RESEARCH CENTER July 17-21, In March, 61% of blacks viewed the court favorably while 24% had an unfavorable opinion. Today, their opinions are divided (44% favorable vs. 41% unfavorable). This is among the lowest favorable ratings for the Supreme Court among blacks in polling dating to Blacks View Supreme Court Much Less Favorably March 2013 July 2013 Fav Unfav DK Fav Unfav DK Total = =100 White = =100 Black = =100 Hispanic = =100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER July 17-21, Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
3 2 The survey finds that partisan differences in opinions about the Supreme Court which widened substantially last year after the court s ruling on the Affordable Care Act have narrowed since then. Currently, 54% of Democrats, 48% of Republicans and 47% of independents express favorable opinions of the court. Less Partisan Views of Court than After Last Year s Health Care Ruling Percent rating the U.S. Supreme Court favorably Roberts Nomination Obama elected 80 Sotomayor Nomination Affordable Care Act Decision Kagan 64 Nomination Gay marriage/ VRA Decisions Democrats Independents Republicans Last July, there was a 26- point partisan gap in favorable views of the court: PEW RESEARCH CENTER July 17-21, % of Democrats viewed the court favorably compared with just 38% of Republicans. Since then, favorable ratings of the court have declined 10 points among Democrats, while increasing by 10 points among Republicans. Independents views have shown less change (47% favorable today, 51% last July).
4 3 Views of Court s Ideology As was the case in March, conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats have contrasting opinions about the Supreme Court s ideology. Half (50%) of conservative Republicans say the court is liberal, compared with just 8% who say it is conservative (35% say it is middle of the road ). Liberal Democrats are far more likely to say the court is conservative (40%) than liberal (19%), with 35% saying it is middle of the road. Nearly half of conservative and moderate Democrats (47%) say the court is middle of the road, as do 45% of moderate and liberal Republicans and 44% of independents. Many Conservatives View the Court as Liberal; Many Liberals View It as Conservative Conservative Supreme Court is Middle of the road Liberal DK N % % % % Total = Conservative Rep = Mod/Liberal Rep = Independent = Conserv/Mod Dem = Liberal Democrat = PEW RESEARCH CENTER July 17-21, Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. Growing Conservative Unease with Court Percent of conservative Republicans saying the U.S. Supreme Court is liberal The percentage of conservative Republicans who view the Supreme Court as liberal has increased markedly since the Bush administration. In 2007, just 22% of conservative Republicans said the court was liberal. That percentage rose to 39% in 2010 and stands at 50% today PEW RESEARCH CENTER July 17-21, 2013.
5 4 About the Survey The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted July 17-21, 2013 among a national sample of 1,480 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (750 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 730 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 382 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the 2011 Census Bureau's American Community Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey: Group Unweighted sample size Plus or minus Total sample 1, percentage points Republican percentage points Democrat percentage points Independent percentage points White, non-hispanic 1, percentage points Black, non-hispanic percentage points Hispanic percentage points Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Pew Research Center, 2013
6 5 PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS JULY 2013 POLITICAL SURVEY FINAL TOPLINE July 17-21, 2013 N=1,480 QUESTIONS 1-3, 5, PREVIOUSLY RELEASED NO QUESTIONS 4, 6 ASK ALL: Q.7 Would you say your overall opinion of [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE; RANDOMIZE ITEMS a AND b IN BLOCK; RANDOMIZE ITEMS c AND d IN BLOCK; RANDOMIZE BLOCKS] is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly UNfavorable, or very unfavorable? [INTERVIEWERS: PROBE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN NEVER HEARD OF AND CAN T RATE. ] How about [NEXT ITEM]? [IF NECESSARY: Just in general, is your overall opinion of [ITEM] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly UNfavorable, or very unfavorable?] [INTERVIEWERS: PROBE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN NEVER HEARD OF AND CAN T RATE. ] ITEMS a-b PREVIOUSLY RELEASED (VOL.) (VOL.) Favorable Unfavorable Never Can t rate/ Total Very Mostly Total Very Mostly heard of Ref c. The Supreme Court Jul 17-21, Mar 13-17, Dec 5-9, Jun 28-Jul 9, Apr 4-15, * 18 July 1-5, Feb 3-9, * 15 Mar 31-Apr 6, April, * 10 July, January, July, February, * 12 Late October, * 11 July, * 11 June, * 13 July, * 10 March, * 8 January, October, * 5 May, July, * 4 May, November, May, January, * 8 May, * 7 Roper: March ITEM d PREVIOUSLY RELEASED NO QUESTIONS 8, 11-14, 17-19, 28-32, 35-39, 41-45, 53-54, 56-57, 59-60, 62, 65 QUESTIONS 9-10, 15-16, 20-27, 40, 46-52, 55, 58, 61, HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE QUESTIONS PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
7 6 ASK ALL: Q.66 Thinking about the Supreme Court In your view, do you think the current Supreme Court is conservative, middle of the road, or liberal? Jul Mar Jun 28-Jul 9 Jul 1-5 Apr July Conservative Middle of the road Liberal Don t know/refused (VOL.) NO QUESTION 67 ASK ALL: Next, PARTY In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent? ASK IF INDEP/NO PREF/OTHER/DK/REF (PARTY=3,4,5,9): PARTYLN As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? (VOL.) (VOL.) No Other (VOL.) Lean Lean Republican Democrat Independent preference party DK/Ref Rep Dem Jul 17-21, * Jun 12-16, * May 1-5, Mar 13-17, Feb 13-18, * Jan 9-13, * Dec 17-19, * Dec 5-9, Oct 31-Nov 3, Oct 24-28, * Oct 4-7, Sep 12-16, * Jul 16-26, * Yearly Totals Post-Sept Pre-Sept
8 7 PARTY/PARTYLN CONTINUED (VOL.) (VOL.) No Other (VOL.) Lean Lean Republican Democrat Independent preference party DK/Ref Rep Dem QUESTIONS 68-71, HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE NO QUESTIONS 72, ASK ALL: TEAPARTY2 From what you know, do you agree or disagree with the Tea Party movement, or don t you have an opinion either way? (VOL.) Not No opinion Haven t (VOL.) heard of/ Agree Disagree either way heard of Refused DK Jul 17-21, Jun 12-16, May 23-26, Feb 14-17, Dec 5-9, Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 (RVs) Oct 4-7, Sep 12-16, Jul 16-26, Jun 28-Jul 9, Jun 7-17, May 9-Jun 3, Apr 4-15, Mar 7-11, Feb 8-12, Jan 11-16, Jan 4-8, Dec 7-11, Nov 9-14, Sep 22-Oct 4, Aug 17-21, Jul 20-24, Jun 15-19, May 25-30, Mar 30-Apr 3, Mar 8-14, Feb 22-Mar 1, Feb 2-7, Jan 5-9, Dec 1-5, Nov 4-7, Oct 27-30, 2010 (RVs) Oct 13-18, 2010 (RVs) Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) Jul 21-Aug 5, Jun 16-20, * 27 May 20-23, Mar 11-21, In the February 2-7, 2011, survey and before, question read do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement In October 2010 and earlier, question was asked only of those who had heard or read a lot or a little about the Tea Party. In May 2010 through October 2010, it was described as: the Tea Party movement that has been involved in campaigns and protests in the U.S. over the past year. In March 2010 it was described as the Tea Party protests that have taken place in the U.S. over the past year.
9 8 QUESTION 83 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
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