2 The 2000 Republican

Transcription

1 Sabato Highlights 2 The 2000 Republican Presidential Primary Virginia Finally Matters in Presidential Nominating Politics Overall The 2000 Republican presidential primary was only the second held in a century in Virginia (the first being 1988), and it was the first where delegates were actually allocated for the national nominating convention. Thanks to the strong support of Governor Jim Gilmore and others, Texas Governor George W. Bush won by almost nine percentage points, 52.8 percent to 43.9 percent for Arizona U.S. Senator John McCain. The Virginia victory was a critical step in Bush turning back McCain s fierce challenge for the GOP presidential nod. In part because of Governor Gilmore s role in the February 29, 2000 primary, President- elect Bush named Gilmore the Republican National Committee chairman after the November election. Republican Presidential Primary Election Results Bush built his Virginia majority in the conservative areas of the state, leaving McCain to garner wins only in moderate Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, where the retired military population appeared to back him. Though modest in overall size, the Bush majority was broadly based, including 88 of 95 counties and 29 of 39 cities. Bush was the choice of nearly seven of 10 Republicans, while McCain attracted 87 percent of the Democrats and 64 percent of the Independents voting in Virginia s open primary (open to any registered voter, essentially). Luckily for Bush, the electorate was heavily GOP (63 percent), compared to 29 percent Independent and only eight percent Democratic. Voter Breakdowns McCain and Bush split male voters about equally, while women tilted heavily to Bush, 57 percent to 41 percent for McCain. 19

2 The GOP primary was almost entirely white (95 percent). Among the tiny group of African Americans who voted, McCain defeated Bush by 58 percent to 31 percent. Bush support was strongest with the over- 60 age group, which voted heavily; McCain did best with the lightly- voting under- 30 youth group. Among income and education classifications, McCain won only those who make $100,000 and up; studies have shown that those voters are most likely to have a moderate- liberal ideology within the GOP. Bush swamped McCain by 80 percent to 14 percent among the so- called religious right, while McCain captured the non- religious right by 52 percent to 45 percent. The rural areas voted heavily for Bush, and the suburbs backed the eventual president by close to his statewide margin. McCain won only the Democratic central cities. U.S. House of Representatives Nominations Seven of the 11 seats drew candidates from both parties, about average for modern times, but a big improvement over 1998, when there were just four contested U.S. House seats in November. Three House retirements in the 1st, 2nd, and 7th districts produced intense competition. The 1st district generated a tight multi- candidate primary, with the winner, Delegate Jo Ann Davis, gaining the GOP nomination with only 35.2 percent of the votes. The 7th district had an even closer Republican primary, with Delegate Eric Cantor securing the dominant party s nod by a mere 263 votes out of 41,541 cast. 20 Virginia Votes

3 2 The 2000 Republican Presidential Primary Virginia Finally Matters in Presidential Nominating Politics In 2000, Virginia held only its second Republican primary in a century, the first being in However, the differences between the two primaries could not be greater. The 1988 primary had served a merely advisory role in the nominating process, not binding delegates to the winner. In addition, by the time the 1988 primary was held, the GOP nominee was expected to be Vice President George H.W. Bush. The 2000 GOP primary, by contrast, was held early in the year on February 29, Virginia joined other states in participating in the unprecedented frontloading of the nomination process. The reason for doing so was identical to that of other states to have a voice in the process before the decision was actually made on the presidential nominee. Virginia s gamble paid off. The state was in an advantageous position on the primary schedule. The only contests that had preceded it were Iowa, New Hampshire, Delaware, and South Carolina. New Hampshire had provided Arizona Senator John McCain with tremendous momentum after he defeated Texas Governor George W. Bush by 19 points. As a result, the South Carolina primary that followed proved critical for Governor Bush. Bush s solid victory there served as the first real slowing of Senator McCain s campaign, although it was not a complete knockout. Virginia closely followed South Carolina. Bush s victory in Virginia helped to finish off McCain. Bush still faced some bumps in the road following Virginia, especially in Michigan where McCain won handily over Bush in an upset. Yet, the Virginia victory delivered by Governor Jim Gilmore and his well- oiled state organization effectively guaranteed that Bush would capture the nomination eventually. Bush would not forget Gilmore s services, and for the first year of the Bush administration, Gilmore was Bush s pick to head the Republican National Committee. Election Results Virtually the entire GOP establishment, from the grassroots ground troops to the elected Republican governor and U.S. Senator, endorsed and campaigned for George W. Bush in Virginia. Considering this, one might have expected an overwhelming victory for the Texan in a Virginia Republican primary. Bush did win handily, but the margin was somewhat unimpressive: 350,588 votes (52.8 percent) for Bush to 291,488 (43.9 percent) for McCain. (As Table 2.01 shows, Alan Keyes received 20,356 votes, or 3.1 percent, with a scattering of votes for others or uncommitted.) McCain was riding a wave of media attention into Virginia, and the glow from his landslide New Hampshire victory had not completely faded. With Virginia s essentially open primary, some Democrats and Independents unquestionably participated, TABLE 2.01 Primary Election Results, Republican Presidential Primary in Virginia, 2000 Candidate Total George W. Bush 350, John McCain 291, Alan L. Keyes 20, Gary Bauer 852 Steve Forbes 809 Uncommitted 2, Total 666, SOURCE: Official results from the State Board of Elections. NOTE: Gary Bauer and Steve Forbes dropped out of the race prior to the primary date, but still appeared on the ballot. 21

4 and an exit poll indicated they favored McCain by a wide margin, just as they were doing all over the nation. It is fair to say that the phalanx of Old Dominion GOP leaders had to work very hard just to produce a respectable margin of victory for Bush and they were greatly relieved that they had not presided over an upset that would have proven disastrous for their own futures. Bush and his supporters assembled a Virginia victory in the more conservative parts of Virginia, including the Piedmont, the Valley, the Southwest, and Southside (where Bush s pro- tobacco stance helped immeasurably). Eight of the 11 congressional districts fell into the Bush column, with the 4th, 5th, 7th, and 9th leading the way (see Table 2.02). McCain won three districts with healthy margins: the two purely Northern Virginia 8th and 11th (where Republicans tend to be much more moderate than in the rest of the state), and also in the 2nd district in Hampton Roads. A large retired and active military population in Norfolk and Virginia Beach might have aided McCain there. Interestingly, McCain chose Virginia Beach to make his final campaign swing right before primary day, and he launched an attack on the Beach s own Pat Robertson, a nationally- known televangelist. The Arizona senator also lashed out at Governor Jim Gilmore and Senator John Warner during that stop. Voter turnout varied widely in the congressional districts, from a low of 9.7 percent in the Southwest 9th to a high of 21.7 percent in the Northern Virginia 8th. Statewide, 17.3 percent of the registered population cast a ballot. As Table 2.03 TABLE 2.03 Voter Participation in Primary Elections in Virginia, Year Potential Voting Population TABLE 2.02 Results in Virginia, by Congressional District, 2000 Republican Primary Election of President District Total Votes Cast of Registered Voting Bush McCain Keyes Uncommitted 1 73, , , , , , , , , , , Statewide 666, SOURCE: Official results from the State Board of Elections. Total Registered Population Primary for Office/Party Total Votes Cast Votes Cast as age of Potential Vote Votes Cast as age of Registered Vote ,738,800 1,732,822 Governor D only 433,613 a ,823,000 1,792,115 U.S. Senate D only 128, ,590,000 2,022,619 Governor D only 493, ,467,000 2,649,468 President D & R 601, ,586,800 2,679,839 Governor R only 403, ,967,000 2,929,635 Senate D only 268, ,040,000 3,074,444 Senate R only 495, ,093,000 3,487,976 Atty. Gen. R only 168, ,208,000 3,856,679 President R only 666, SOURCES: Total potential voting population for all years was based on population estimates provided by either Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service (formerly the Tayloe Murphy Institute), University of Virginia, or the U.S. Bureau of Census; figures for total registered population and total votes cast for all years were provided by the State Board of Elections. NOTES: Total potential voting population for 1969 includes all persons aged 21 and over, while after 1969 figures include those aged 18 and above. Total registered population figure for 1969 is an official estimate provided by the State Board of Elections; after 1969 the State Board collected exact tabulations of registered voters by locality. a Total vote in runoff primary held in August; the first primary held in July drew a lower turnout of 408, Virginia Votes

5 indicates, this is a middling turnout for a primary, though in terms of absolute numbers, the 666,365 ballots cast set a record. (To be impressed by that, you must ignore the tremendous population growth that has taken place in modern times.) The broad- based nature of Bush s Virginia win is seen at a glance in Figures 2.01 and Bush carried 88 of 95 counties, losing only Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, James City, King George, Northampton, and York (all in Tidewater or Northern Virginia). McCain fared better in the cities, though Bush still won 29 of 39. Once again, Northern Virginia and Tidewater were McCain s areas of strength, though he FIGURE 2.01 The 2000 Virginia Republican Primary Election for President, by Cities SOURCE: Official Election Results provided by the State Board of Elections. FIGURE 2.02 The 2000 Virginia Republican Primary Election for President, by Counties SOURCE: Official Election Results provided by the State Board of Elections. CHAPTER 2 The 2000 Republican Presidential Primary 23

6 also picked up the college towns of Charlottesville, Lexington, and Williamsburg, as well as the tiny cities of Clifton Forge and Norton. Voter Demographics: Who Voted for Whom The breakdown of the vote could not have been starker, as measured by the exit poll taken on Election Day of voters leaving their polling places across Virginia (see Table 2.04). George W. Bush was the choice of nearly 7 in 10 Republican voters on primary day, while John McCain cleaned up among Democrats (87 percent for McCain) and Independents (64 percent for McCain). Luckily for Bush, 63 percent of the primary electorate was composed of self- identified Republicans, with 29 percent of the voters calling themselves Independent, and only 8 percent Democrats. Had the primary turnout been more representative of the general electorate, McCain almost certainly would have won. Still, primaries are meant to be dominated by the party sponsoring them. In Virginia, as in all states without party registration, it is impossible to screen participants for party loyalty. In 2000, the Virginia GOP required voters to sign a statement pledging that they would not involve themselves in the nominating process of any other party, but of course the pledge was unenforceable in practice. And Democrats had chosen small- turnout caucuses to pick their presidential delegates, so the chances of GOP primary voters participating in the Democratic nominating process were miniscule in any event. Naturally, the Republican primary was skewed to conservative voters (55 percent of the turnout), and Bush received close to three- quarters of this vote. McCain won about two- thirds of the vote among moderates and liberals who went to the polls. The gender breakdown told another story. Men provided about 52 percent of the primary electorate in a state where women comprise about 52 percent of the registered voters. Contrary to intuition, though, McCain did much better among men than women. Though he was perceived to be the more moderate candidate, he essentially split men with Bush, while losing women by 57 percent to 41 percent. McCain s strong military credentials may well have been more appealing to men, as the results in the military stronghold of Hampton Roads suggested. The GOP primary was almost entirely white (95 percent), so no reliable racial breakdowns are available, save for the predominantly black precincts cited later in this chapter. As usual, older, very reliable voters dominated the primary, with those aged 45 and up providing 63 percent of the turnout. Bush did especially well with the 60- and- over group, while McCain s strongest showing came among the lightly- voting youngest citizens under 30. Similarly, the Republican primary was heavily tilted to those of higher incomes and educational levels. Two- thirds of the voters earned more than $50,000 annually, while six in ten had one college degree or more. Of note, Bush ran strongest among those who earned between $15,000 and $75,000, as well as those who had had only some college education or just a high school degree. Surveys have often shown that liberal Republicans are concentrated among those with the highest incomes and the postgraduate set, and sure enough, McCain carried only those with incomes of $100,000 and up, and those who had done postgraduate study. These divisions appear again in two other exit poll measures. The abortion issue continues to divide the GOP right down the middle. Among the primary electorate who want to see abortion made illegal in most or all cases, roughly half, Bush won more than two- thirds of the vote. Among those who want abortion to be legal in most or all cases, McCain captured over 60 percent of the vote. And among the 24 Virginia Votes

7 TABLE 2.04 Demographic Breakdown of Virginia Voters, 2000 Republican Primary Election for President of Total Cast for Grouping All Bush McCain Keyes PARTY Democrat 8% 11% 87% 2% Republican Independent IDEOLOGY Very Liberal Somewhat Liberal Moderate Somewhat Conservative Very Conservative SEX Male Female RACE White Black Hispanic/Latino Asian AGE INCOME Under $15, $15,000 $29, $30,000 $49, $50,000 $74, $75,000 $99, $100,000 or more EDUCATION High school or less Some college College Graduate Postgraduate study FINANCIAL SITUATION Better today than four years ago Worse today than four years ago About the same as four years ago ABORTION Legal in all cases Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases Illegal in all cases RELIGIOUS RIGHT Yes No SOURCE: Figures taken from the ABC News Election Day Poll of Virginia. NOTE: Not all horizontal or vertical columns total 100 percent since totals for Steve Forbes and Gary Bauer (both of whom had dropped out of the race but were still on the ballot) and the don t know responses are not listed on this table. CHAPTER 2 The 2000 Republican Presidential Primary 25

8 TABLE 2.05 Public Opinion Polls, Virginia Republican Primary Election for President, 2000 American Research Group February 23 24, 2000 a Mason-Dixon Opinion Research, Inc. February 22 23, 2000 Candidates All GOP Dem/Ind All GOP Dem/Ind George W. Bush 44% 50% 29% 48% 65% 25% John McCain Alan Keyes Undecided Margin of Error +/ 4.0% +/ 4.0% Sample Size 600 likely voters 621 likely voters SOURCES: Printed reports provided by the polling organizations. NOTE: a 71% were self-identified Republicans; 29% were self-identified Democrats or Independents fifth of the GOP voters who defined themselves as members of the religious right, Bush swamped McCain, 80 percent to 14 percent. McCain actually won the non- religious right Republicans, 52 percent to 45 percent. One final polling note: The two pre- primary surveys taken in Virginia were reasonably on target. Both the American Research Group and the Mason- Dixon Opinion Research organization foresaw the solid, if underwhelming, Bush margin. Closer to the mark, as usual, was Mason- Dixon, which correctly forecast Bush s eleven percentage point victory and also came within a narrow margin of projecting the party breakdown in the race (see Table 2.05). Urban-Rural Split George W. Bush was a heavy rural favorite, capturing nearly 62 percent of the vote to McCain s 35 percent. However, rural areas comprised less than 16 percent of the turnout, somewhat lower than in a general election. Of even less importance were the mainly Democratic central cities, where turnout was low (14 percent of the statewide total). As expected, the more liberal McCain did relatively well in these localities, securing 47 percent to Bush s 50 percent. The modern Republican Party is centered in Virginia s burgeoning suburbs, of course, and this demographic provided almost 70 percent of the GOP turnout the largest proportion ever in a Republican primary. Bush won by 51 percent to 45 percent, a bit under his overall performance (see Tables 2.06 and 2.07). Black Votes In the 44 sampled, heavily African American precincts contained in Table 2.08, the turnout was tiny, just 2.2 percent of the registered (compared to 17.3 percent of all registered voters overall). Facing this kind of turnout, assumptions that most of the voters are African American, even in these predominantly African American precincts, are impossible. John McCain won these precincts, taking nearly 58 percent of the votes to George Bush s 31 percent. The lone black candidate, Alan Keyes, finished with a respectable 9 percent, three times his statewide proportion. It should be noted that Bush s 31 percent was the lowest yet recorded for a statewide GOP primary winner in the sample black precincts (see Table 2.09). His primary showings in Virginia 26 Virginia Votes

9 TABLE 2.06 The Urban Vote, Virginia Republican Primary for President, 2000 Cast Urban Measure of Total Vote Bush McCain Keyes Others Urban Corridor a Metropolitan Statistical Areas b Central Cities Suburbs Rural Areas c SOURCE: Compiled from official election results from the State Board of Elections. NOTES: a Includes cities of Alexandria, Chesapeake, Colonial Heights, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Hampton, Hopewell, Manassas, Manassas Park, Newport News, Norfolk, Petersburg, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Richmond, Virginia Beach, and Williamsburg; and the counties of Arlington, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Clarke, Dinwiddie, Fairfax, Fauquier, Hanover, Henrico, James City, Loudoun, New Kent, Prince George, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and York. b The eight current Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) for Virginia, as established by the U.S. Census Bureau, are Charlottesville, Danville, Johnson City-Kingsport- Bristol, Lynchburg, Washington, D.C., Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, Richmond-Petersburg, and Roanoke. Central Cities and Suburbs are included in the MSA figures. The Charlottesville and Danville MSAs were first designated after the 1980 census. Various other MSAs have been expanded each decade, with new cities and counties added to them. Therefore, this grouping of MSAs is substantially, but not entirely the same as that listed in previous editions of Virginia Votes. c All Virginia localities not included in either an MSA or the Urban Corridor. TABLE 2.07 Metropolitan Proportions of Statewide Vote in Virginia, of Statewide Vote Election Central Cities Suburbs GENERAL ELECTIONS 1969 Governor 21.50% U.S. Senator Lieutenant Governor President Governor President Governor U.S. Senator President Governor U.S. Senator President Governor Lottery Referendum President Governor U.S. Senator President Governor U.S. Senator President Governor DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES 1969 Governor (first primary) Governor (runoff) Governor President U.S. Senator REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES 1988 President Governor U.S. Senator Attorney General President SOURCE: Compiled from official election results from the State Board of Elections. NOTE: See the notes for Table 2.06 for identification of the central cities and suburbs.

10 TABLE 2.08 Voting in Selected Predominantly Black Precincts in Virginia Cities, 2000 Republican Primary Election for President Cast for City of Precincts Total Votes Cast of Registered Voting Bush Bauer McCain Keyes Forbes BLACK PRECINCTS Charlottesville a % 41.0% 0.0% 52.5% 6.6% 0.0% Chesapeake b Emporia c Hampton d Newport News e Norfolk f Petersburg g Portsmouth h Richmond i Totals 44 1, SOURCE: Official election results provided by the State Board of Elections. a Charlottesville: b Chesapeake: c Emporia: Precinct 2 d Hampton: Benjamin Tonsler (formerly Firehouse) precinct South Norfolk Fire Station precinct Pembroke and Phenix precincts e Newport News: Chestnut, Dunbar, Huntington, Jefferson, Magruder, Marshall, Newsome Park, and Washington precincts f Norfolk: g Petersburg: Berkely, Bowling Park, Brambleton, Campostella, Chesterfield, Monroe, Park Place, Rosemont, Union Chapel, and Young Park precincts 5th Ward 1st precinct, 5th Ward 2nd precinct, 6th Ward 1st precinct, and 6th Ward 2nd precinct. h Portsmouth: Precincts 26 and 27 i Richmond: Precincts 301, 303, 304, 306, 602, 604, 606, 608, 701, 702, 703, 704, 705, 707, and 802. and throughout the country among African Americans foreshadowed his very poor drawing power among blacks in the November 2000 election, as the next chapter will illustrate. The 2000 Preliminaries for U.S. House of Representatives The level of competition for U.S. House seats in 2000 was about average, with seven of the 11 berths drawing nominees from both major parties, and just four seats unopposed by one major party (see Table 2.10). This marked a considerable improvement over 1998, when the numbers were reversed seven unopposed seats, and four opposed. Unopposed representatives in 2000 were two Democratic incumbents (Bobby Scott of the 3rd district and Norman Sisisky of the 4th district in what would be the latter s last race) and two Republican incumbents (Bob Goodlatte of the 6th and Frank Wolf of the 10th). One incumbent, the 5th district s Virgil Goode, left the Democratic Party and officially became an Independent. However, he decided to caucus with the Republicans, and thus he was unofficially supported by the GOP in his re- election contest against Democrat John Boyd, an African American. (Goode formally joined the GOP in 2002 and ran for re- election as the Republican nominee in that year.) Most of the House candidates, whether incumbents or not, were nominated in unopposed conventions or primaries (see Table 2.11). The exceptions occurred in two of the three districts where incumbents were not running for re- election: the Hampton- Newport News- Northern Neck 1st district, where nine- term incumbent Republican Herb Bateman had died suddenly after deciding to retire, and the 28 Virginia Votes

11 TABLE 2.09 Major Statewide Elections in Virginia by Demographic and Black Voting Patterns, for Winner Election Central Cities Suburbs Black Vote GENERAL ELECTIONS 1969 Governor, Linwood Holton (R) 50.90% 56.50% 37.20% 1970 U.S. Senator, Harry Byrd, Jr. (I) a Lt. Governor, Henry Howell (I) a President, Richard Nixon (R) U.S. Senate, William Scott (R) Governor, Mills Godwin (R) President, Gerald Ford (R) U.S. Senate, Harry Byrd, Jr. (I) Governor, John Dalton (R) Lt. Governor, Charles Robb (D) Attorney General, Marshall Coleman (R) U.S. Senate, John Warner (R) President, Ronald Reagan (R) Governor, Charles Robb (D) Lt. Governor, Dick Davis (D) Attorney General, Gerald Baliles (D) U.S. Senate, Paul Trible (R) President, Ronald Reagan (R) U.S. Senate, John Warner (R) Governor, Gerald Baliles (D) Lt. Governor, Douglas Wilder Attorney General, Mary Sue Terry (D) President, George Bush (R) U.S. Senate, Charles Robb(D) Governor, Douglas Wilder (D) Lt. Governor, Donald Beyer (D) Attorney General, Mary Sue Terry (D) U.S. Senate, John Warner (R) b President, George Bush (R) a Governor, George Allen (R) Lt. Governor, Donald Beyer (D) Attorney General, James Gilmore (R) U.S. Senate, Charles Robb (D) a President, Robert Dole (R) U.S. Senate, John Warner (R) Governor, James Gilmore (R) Lt. Governor, John Hager (R) Attorney General, Mark Earley (R) (continued ) Richmond- Piedmont 7th district, where ten- term incumbent Thomas J. Bliley, the powerful chairman of the House Commerce Committee, chose to step down at the end of his tenure as chairman. (Democrat Owen B. Pickett, a seven- term congressman from the Norfolk- Virginia Beach 2nd district, also decided to retire, but the two parties nominated their candidates Democrat Jody Wagner and Ed Schrock, a GOP state senator unopposed.) Fierce primary battles ensued among Republicans in both the 1st and 7th districts, where the GOP nominees would be heavily favored in November. On June 13, the 1st district s GOP narrowly chose conservative Delegate Jo Ann Davis over moderate businessman Paul C. Jost, 35.2 percent to 30 percent. A political consultant, Michael Rothfeld, captured 22 percent, with two minor candidates splitting CHAPTER 2 The 2000 Republican Presidential Primary 29

12 TABLE 2.09 Major Statewide Elections in Virginia by Demographic and Black Voting Patterns, (continued ) for Winner Election Central Cities Suburbs Black Vote DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ELECTIONS 1969 Governor, William Battle (first primary) Governor, William Battle (runoff) Governor, Henry Howell Lt. Governor, Charles Robb a Attorney General, Edward E. Lane a President, Jesse Jackson a U.S. Senator, Charles Robb REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTIONS 1988 President, George Bush a Governor, Marshall Coleman a U.S. Senator, John Warner Attorney General, Mark Earley a President, George W. Bush SOURCE: Calculated by the author from data supplied by the State Board of Elections. NOTES: Party affiliations of winning candidates are abbreviated as: (D) = Democrat; (R) = Republican; (I) = Independent. Figures for the 1970 Democratic primary for U.S. senator are not included in this table. Voter turnout in that election was miniscule. Central cities and suburbs used in this table are designated components of Virginia s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), as established by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.Estimates of the black vote are based on results in the selected predominantly black precincts used in this and previous editions of Virginia Votes. a Election involved three or more major contenders. b Warner was unopposed by the Democrats and faced only an Independent challenger. TABLE 2.10 Unopposed U.S. House Contests in Virginia, Year House Seats in Virginia Total of Unopposed Contests Total of Unopposed Democrats Total of Unopposed Republicans the remaining 12.8 percent (see Table 2.12). Jost had been the favorite, and he was strongly endorsed by Governor Jim Gilmore, but Davis s ground troops on the right outmaneuvered Jost on Election Day. This was despite Jost s sizeable total expenditure of $1,334,133 to Davis s meager $407,945. The voter turnout of 40,598 represented just 10.4 percent of the registered, compared with the 19.1 percent who voted in the February presidential primary. Davis, who stood to become Virginia s 30 Virginia Votes

13 TABLE 2.11 Major-Party Nominations in Virginia for U.S. House, 2000 Dist. Democratic Nominee Nominating Method Republican Nominee Nominating Method 1 Lawrence A. Davies Convention/Contested Jo Ann S. Davis Primary/Contested 2 Jody M. Wagner Convention/Unopposed Edward L. Schrock Primary/Unopposed 3 Robert C. Scott* Convention/Unopposed None 4 Norman Sisisky* Convention/Unopposed None 5 John W. Boyd, Jr. Convention/Unopposed None + 6 None Robert W. Goodlatte* Convention/Unopposed 7 Warren A. Stewart Convention/Unopposed Eric I. Cantor Primary/Contested 8 James P. Moran* Convention/Unopposed Demaris Miller Convention/Unopposed 9 Frederick C. Boucher* Convention/Unopposed Michael D. Osborne Convention/Unopposed 10 None Frank R. Wolf* Convention/Unopposed 11 Mike Corrigan Convention/Unopposed Thomas M. Davis* Convention/Unopposed SOURCE: State and district party chairpersons, and the State Board of Elections. * Designates incumbent. The First, Second, and Seventh Districts were open seats. + Incumbent Congressman Virgil Goode, a former Democrat, declared himself an Independent but caucuses with House Republicans. Republicans did not nominate a candidate. TABLE 2.12 Results in Virginia, 2000 Congressional Primary Candidate Total District 1 Paul C. Jost 12, % Jo Ann S. Davis 14, Michael I. Rothfeld 8, Phillip G. Short 2, Robert L. Cunningham 2, Total 40, District 7 Steven H. Martin 20, Eric I. Cantor 20, Total 41, SOURCE: Official election results provided by the State Board of Elections. first Republican congresswoman ever, would face off against an African American Democrat, former Fredericksburg Mayor Lawrence Davies, who was easily nominated in a Democratic convention. The Republican primary in the 7th district was every bit as heated, and was even closer in the end. Two conservatives, Delegate Eric Cantor of Henrico and Senator Steven Martin of Chesterfield, competed to a near- draw, with Cantor edging Martin on June 13 by a mere 263 votes out of 41,541 cast (50.3 percent to 49.7 percent). As in the 1st, the turnout was only 9.8 percent, far under the 87,429 who had voted in the presidential primary. Landslide or not, Cantor was nearly guaranteed a victory over his Democratic foe, attorney Warren Stewart. The congressional ballot was unusually diverse for Virginia, with three Democratic African Americans (Lawrence Davies, Bobby Scott, and John Boyd), one Democratic woman ( Jody Wagner), and two Republican women ( Jo Ann Davis and Demaris Miller, the latter nominated to run against Democratic Representative Jim Moran in the Northern Virginia 8th district for a second consecutive election). CHAPTER 2 The 2000 Republican Presidential Primary 31

14 APPENDIX 1 Republican Presidential Primary, February 29, 2000 Locality Total Vote George W. Bush from of Gary Bauer from of STATE 664, , CITIES 192,447 95, Alexandria 14,453 5, Bedford Bristol 1, Buena Vista Charlottesville 2,768 1, Chesapeake 17,095 9, Clifton Forge Colonial Heights 2,089 1, Covington Danville 3,820 2, Emporia Fairfax 3,185 1, Falls Church 1, Franklin Fredericksburg 1, Galax Hampton 9,903 5, Harrisonburg 2,087 1, Hopewell 1, Lexington Lynchburg 6,034 3, Manassas Park Manassas 3,149 1, Martinsville Newport News 13,684 7, Norfolk 14,177 5, Norton Petersburg 1, Poquoson 1,882 1, Portsmouth 6,088 2, Radford Richmond 13,500 6, Roanoke 6,856 4, Salem 2,603 1, Staunton 2,030 1, Suffolk 4,999 2, Va. Beach 44,217 19, Waynesboro 1,796 1, Williamsburg 1, Winchester 2,067 1, COUNTIES 471, , Accomack 2,890 1, Albemarle 9,881 5, Alleghany Amelia Amherst 2,040 1, Appomattox 1, Arlington 23,313 8, Augusta 5,691 3, Bath Bedford 6,438 4, Virginia Votes

15 John McCain Alan L. Keyes Steve Forbes from of from of from of 291, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (continued ) CHAPTER 2 The 2000 Republican Presidential Primary 33

16 APPENDIX 1 Republican Presidential Primary, February 29, 2000 (continued ) Locality Total Vote George W. Bush from of Gary Bauer from of Bland Botetourt 3,650 2, Brunswick Buchanan Buckingham Campbell 4,405 3, Caroline 1, Carroll 2,381 1, Charles City Charlotte Chesterfield 28,192 18, Clarke 1, Craig Culpeper 3,242 1, Cumberland Dickenson Dinwiddie 1,454 1, Essex Fairfax 126,234 56, Fauquier 7,750 3, Floyd 1, Fluvanna 2,015 1, Franklin 3,747 2, Frederick 5,481 3, Giles Gloucester 3,268 1, Goochland 2,190 1, Grayson 1, Greene 1, Greensville Halifax 2,229 1, Hanover 10,979 7, Henrico 29,558 18, Henry 2,821 1, Highland Isle of Wight 2,740 1, James City 8,303 3, King and Queen King George 1, King William 1, Lancaster 2,028 1, Lee Loudoun 20,005 9, Louisa 1,876 1, Lunenburg Madison 1, Mathews 1, Mecklenburg 1,710 1, Middlesex 1, Montgomery 5,600 3, Virginia Votes

17 John McCain Alan L. Keyes Steve Forbes from of from of from of , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (continued ) CHAPTER 2 The 2000 Republican Presidential Primary 35

18 APPENDIX 1 Republican Presidential Primary, February 29, 2000 (continued ) Locality Total Vote George W. Bush from of Gary Bauer from of Nelson 1, New Kent 1, Northampton 1, Northumberland 1,848 1, Nottoway Orange 2,928 1, Page 1, Patrick 1, Pittsylvania 4,528 3, Powhatan 2,358 1, Prince Edward 1, Prince George 2,242 1, Prince William 25,821 12, Pulaski 1,991 1, Rappahannock Richmond Roanoke 10,523 6, Rockbridge 1, Rockingham 5,380 3, Russell Scott 1,490 1, Shenandoah 3,574 2, Smyth 1,474 1, Southampton 1, Spotsylvania 7,246 3, Stafford 8,597 4, Surry Sussex Tazewell 1,826 1, Warren 2,766 1, Washington 2,817 1, Westmoreland 1, Wise 1, Wythe 1,613 1, York 7,751 3, Virginia Votes

19 John McCain Alan L. Keyes Steve Forbes from of from of from of , , , , , , , , , , CHAPTER 2 The 2000 Republican Presidential Primary 37

20