Bay Area Assembly, Senate, and Congressional Elections Results. November 2012

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1 Bay Area Assembly, Senate, and Congressional Elections Results November 2012

2 Election Roundup The 2012 election is finally over, and various post mortems and assorted punditry has begun. In the Bay Area, the Assembly and Senate races went much as the Bay Area Council predicted. The two races we predicted to be squeakers are just that, with San Rafael Councilmember Marc Levine holding a narrow edge over Assemblymember Mike Allen for AD 10, and Alameda Vice Mayor Rob Bonta holding a similarly slim lead over Abel Guillen in AD 18. In Congress, Jerry McNerney held his seat, but 20 term member Pete Stark was upset by Prosecutor Eric Swalwell in perhaps the most prominent example of the impact of the new open primary system. Locally it was a good night for Mayor Ed Lee in San Francisco with the voters there approving his complete slate of issues, including business tax reform, and a resounding 77% No vote on the proposal to drain the Hetch Hetchy reservoir that supplies water to 2.7 million Bay Area residents. The Bay Area Council is proud to have led that fight. It was an equally good evening for San Jose Mayor, Chuck Reed, where one of his biggest supporters in the efforts there to rein in pension costs, Rose Herrera, easily won reelection. That race was seen by many as a proxy referendum on San Jose s pension reform efforts. Mayor Tom Bates of Berkeley also easily won reelection. In Alameda, Regional Measure B1 a Transportation Sales Tax measure (66% required) is still too close to call and in Oakland Rebecca Kaplan saw of a challenge from former Council Member Ignacio De La Fuente for her at large Council seat. Much to the disappointment of Oakland Zoo Board Member, Jim Wunderman, an Alameda parcel tax to fund the zoo, while passing is not going to meet the 2/3 threshold.

3 Election Roundup Cont. In Marin, an array of education revenue measures passed (as always!). Voters in Santa Clara have approved a new water tax, a sales tax measure is too close to call and in San Jose a measure to raise the minimum wage also passed. A transaction tax is passing in San Mateo, but in Contra Costa a parcel tax to fund fire services has been rejected by the voters. Perhaps the most interesting developments are not so much in the individual races, but in the new composition of the California State Legislature. For the first time since 1965, California appears headed to Democratic super majorities in both the Assembly and the Senate. With a super majority vote needed to raise taxes, and the Republican minority no longer holding a veto card, the next session could be a very interesting one indeed. California appeared to buck the national trend in its votes on the various State Propositions. While voters in other states were approving recreational marijuana and liberalizing marriage laws, voters here trended more socially conservative, rejecting a call to repeal the death penalty. We also approved Governor Brown s signature initiative Proposition 30 that would temporarily increase the sales tax and upper income taxes to stave off looming cuts to public education. Proposition 32, the other hotly contended proposition to limit campaign contributions, was defeated. There will be seven freshman members of the Bay Area legislative caucus in Sacramento, and we are sending two freshmen to represent us in Congress. We congratulate all the winners and look forward to working with them to keep the Bay Area the best place in the world to live and work.

4 Overview Key: BOLD = suggested winner according to media, polling, or other analysis RED = candidate who will term out in 2014

5 Bay Area Assembly Districts Termed out in Buchanan v. Phillips 28 Fong v. Walsh 4 Yamada v. Munn 2 Chesbro v. Lynch 17 Ammiano v.clark Other races 10 Allen v. Levine 11 Frazier v. Hudson 14 Bonilla 15 Skinner 18 Bonta v. Guillen 19 Ting v. Breyer 20 Quirk v. Ong 22 Mullin v. Gilham 24 Gordon v. Yang 25 Wieckowski v. Diamond 27 Campos v. Lasson 29 Stone v. Walsh 30 Alejo v. Bernosky

6 Bay Area Senate Districts Termed out in Corbett Other races 2 Evans 3 Wolk v. Miranda 7 DeSaulnier v. Meuser 8* Yee 9 Hancock v. McIlroy 11 Leno v. Harmeet 13 Hill v. Lieber 15 Beall v. Coto 17 Monning v. Beaman

7 Bay Area Congressional Districts 2012 Races 9 McNerney v. Gill 15 Stark v. Swalwell

8 Santa Rosa Eureka Ukiah Wesley Chesbro (D), incumbent in District 1, ran in District 2 due to redistricting. Received more than 60,000 votes in the June primaries. Issues: Public education, health care, natural resources. Voter Registration: 46.6% D, 25.8% R Demographics: White 71.5%, Latino 18%, Asian 2.8%, Black 1.2% Top employers: Granite Construction, Retech, Kaiser Permanente, Agilent, wine, tourism Tom Lynch (D) is on the Sonoma County Planning Commission and served on the Sonoma County Econ. Development Board. Issues: Schools, public safety, economy, women s health services. Note: Incumbent Jim Nielsen (R) did not run for re-election. RESULT: Chesbro wins (63.5%). Termed out in 2014.

9 Davis Clearlake Napa Rohnert Park Mariko Yamada won the June primary by more than 15,000 votes. Issues: Agriculture, seniors, veterans, environment. John Munn, Republican, will face Yamada in the November election. He is a scientist who worked for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Voter Registration: 46.8% D, 27.1% R Demographics: White 57.8%, Hispanic 29.3%, Black 1.7%, Asian 7.6% Top employers: UC Davis, Walmart, Queen of the Valley Medical Center, Treasury Wine Estates, Sonoma State University Note: Incumbent Beth Gaines ran in District 6 due to redistricting. RESULT: Yamada wins (62.1%). Termed out in 2014.

10 Petaluma Santa Rosa San Rafael Michael Allen won the June primary, with nearly 33,000 votes. The field was mostly Democratic. $869K raised through September. Allen is the incumbent in District 7, first assuming office in Marc Levine is a San Rafael City Councilmember, and also a Democrat. He won approx. 25,000 votes in the primary. $188K raised through September. Voter Registration: 54.1% D, 20% R Demographics: White 68.7%, Hispanic 20.8%, Black 2.1%, Asian 4.9% Top employers: Petaluma City School District, County of Sonoma, Kaiser Permanente, Autodesk, Comcast, Safeway Note: Incumbent Alyson Huber did not run for re-election; her district was redrawn with a GOP voter advantage of 20 points. RESULT: Levine leads by 1,663 votes as of 8:03 AM (50.6%).

11 Antioch Fairfield Oakley Vacaville Oakley City Councilman Jim Frazier (D) placed 2 nd with 21.8% of the vote. $416K raised through September. Former Oakley mayor and vice mayor. Voter Registration: 48.2% D, 28.3% R Demographics: White 44.1%, Hispanic 27.6%, Black 12.3%, Asian 10.5% Top employers: Travis Air Force Base, California Dept. of Corrections, County of Solano, Kaiser Permanente, and Fairfield-Suisun Unified School District Suisun City Vice Mayor Mike Hudson (R) placed 1 st in the June primaries with 31.7% of the vote. Only $87K raised through September. Computer security professional. Note: Current District 11 incumbent Susan Bonilla ran for re-election in District 14 due to redistricting. RESULT: Frazier wins (61.1%).

12 Vallejo Concord Martinez Susan Bonilla, incumbent in the 11 th District since 2010, did not have a challenger. Issues: Education, Early Childhood Education, Transportation, Healthcare. Voter Registration: 51.9% D, 23.4% R Demographics: White 44.9%, Hispanic 25.4%, Black 9.7%, Asian 15.3% Top employers: Mt. Diablo Unified School District, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, John Muir Health, Chevron, AT&T, Kaiser, Contra Costa County, Shell Oil Note: Current District 14 incumbent Nancy Skinner ran for reelection in District 15 due to redistricting. RESULT: Bonilla wins (100%).

13 Albany Berkeley Emeryville Richmond District 14 incumbent Nancy Skinner (D) did not have a challenger. $504K on hand. Endorsements by SEIU; AFSCME; Emily s List; and various labor, teachers, and women s groups. Voter Registration: 64.8% D, 9.0% R Demographics: White 39.4%, Hispanic 21.7%, Asian 18.4%, Black 15.6% Top employers: University of California, Berkeley; Alameda County; Wells Fargo; Oakland Unified School District; City of Oakland Note: Current District 15 incumbent Joan Buchanan ran in District 16 due to redistricting. RESULT: Skinner wins (86.9%). Termed out in 2014.

14 Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon Walnut Creek District 15 incumbent Joan Buchanan (D) placed 1 st in the primaries with 56.7% of the vote. $338K raised through September. Endorsed by the CA Federation of Teachers, the CA League of Conservation Voters, and Sierra Club California. Voter Registration: 40.1% D, 34.6% R Demographics: White 64.4%, Asian 18.2%, Hispanic 11.0%, Black 2.4%, Top employers: John Muir Health, Kaiser Permanente, Chevron, Safeway, AT&T Contender Al Phillips (R) endorsed by Contra Costa, Alameda County, and CA GOP Parties. Note: District 16 incumbent Sandre Swanson (D) was termed out this cycle. RESULT: Buchanan wins (58.3%). Termed out in 2014.

15 San Francisco Treasure Island District 13 incumbent Tom Ammiano (D) received five times as many votes as his opponent in the primaries. He has a long list of endorsements, including the CA Democratic Party, the CA Federation of Teachers, Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, and several labor and environmental groups. Voter Registration: 59.2% D, 7.3% R Demographics: White 41.3%, Asian 28.3%, Latino 18.9%, Black 7.7% Top employers: City and County of San Francisco, University of California San Francisco, Wells Fargo. Opponent is Jason Clark (R), an attorney from San Francisco. Note: Incumbent Cathleen Galgiani was termed out in Assembly, ran for Senate District 5. RESULT: Ammiano wins (86.1%). Termed out 2014.

16 Alameda Oakland San Leandro Alameda Vice Mayor and SF Deputy City Atty. Rob Bonta (D) placed 1 st in the June primaries with 36.9% of the vote. $420K raised through September. Many endorsements, including SF Chronicle, Oakland Tribune, CA Dem. Party, labor. Voter Registration: 63.6% D, 10.5% R Demographics: Hispanic 26.3%, White 24.0%, Asian 22.9%, Black 22.6% Top employers: Alameda County, Wells Fargo, Oakland Unified School District, City of Oakland, Cost Plus World Market Contender Abel Guillen (D) placed 2 nd in with 29.7% of the vote. $327K raised through September. Note: Incumbent Mary Hayashi (D) was termed out this cycle. RESULT: Bonta leads by 1,558 votes as of 8:03 AM (50.8%).

17 Daly City San Francisco South San Francisco Voter Registration: 53.0% D, 12.7% R Demographics: White 35.1%, Asian 44.2%, Hispanic 13.8%, Black 3.1% Top employers: City and County of San Francisco; University of California, San Francisco; Wells Fargo; Genentech; Seton Medical Center SF Assessor-Recorder Phil Ting (D) placed 1 st in the June primaries with 56.4% of the vote. $606K raised through September. Endorsed by the CA Democratic Party, California Teachers Association, SEIU, Sierra Club, CA League of Conservation Voters, SF Chronicle, SF Bay Guardian. Contender Michael Breyer (D) raised $774K through September. Note: Incumbent Fiona Ma (D) was termed out this cycle. RESULT: Ting wins (58%).

18 Castro Valley Hayward Union City Bill Quirk (D) was top vote getter in June primary with 17,177 votes. Beat Ong in a July poll 43.4% to 30.2%. Nearly twice as much cash raised as Ong. Endorsed by Democratic party. Former LBNL, NASA scientist, Hayward City Council. Issues: Education, energy. Voter Registration: 54.6% D, 17.8% R Demographics: Asian 32.5%, Latino 28.8%, White 25.8%, Black 8.2% Top employers: Cal State East Bay, Kaiser, Chabot College, Pepsi, Axygen Biosciences. Jennifer Ong (D) received 14,560 votes in June primary. Endorsements from Fiona Ma, several Asm. Members. Issues: education, healthcare. Note: Current District 20 incumbent Bob Wieckowski ran in District 25 due to redistricting. RESULT: Quirk wins (51.3%).

19 Burlingame Pacifica Redwood City San Mateo South San Francisco City Councilmember Kevin Mullin (D) placed 1 st in the June primaries with 68.5% of the vote. $350K raised through September. Endorsed by the California Teachers Association, California Democratic Party, SEIU California, and Sierra Club California. Voter Registration: 51.2% D, 21.5% R Demographics: White 48.0%, Hispanic 23.4%, Asian 22.6%, Black 1.8%. Top employers: Genentech, Oracle, Electronic Arts, San Mateo County, Virgin America Contender Mark Gilham (R) had no FPPC filing as of last filing period. Note: Incumbent Jerry Hill ran for the California Senate. RESULT: Mullin wins (70.6%).

20 Palo Alto Sunnyvale Half Moon Bay Rich Gordon (D) (Dist. 21 incumbent) received twice as many votes as opponent in primary. $365K raised through September. Issues: Gov t reform, education, environment. Voter Registration: 48.1% D, 22.3% R Demographics: White 47.4%, Asian 26.1%, Latino 20.1%, Black 2.7% Top employers: Google, Facebook, Stanford University, Lockheed Martin Chengzhi George Yang (R) is a software programmer for a startup company. No campaign finance report. Note: Incumbent Jim Beall was termed out in the Assembly, ran for State Senate. RESULT: Gordon wins (70%). Termed out in 2016.

21 Fremont San Jose Santa Clara Bob Wieckowski (District 20 incumbent) received 22,000 votes in primary to his opponents 16,000. Issues: High-tech, jobs, education. Arlyne Diamond (R) received 30% of primary vote, no FPPC filing. Voter Registration: 45.9% D, 20.3% R Demographics: 49.6% Asian, 24.2% White, 19.7% Latino, 2.8% Black Top employers: Synnex, Cargill Salt, Intel, Kaiser, Applied Materials, Marvell, SVB Financial Group, Cisco Note: Current District 25 Incumbent Kristin Olsen (R) is ran in District 12 due to redistricting. RESULT: Wieckowski wins (70.1%). Termed out in 2016.

22 San Jose Nora Campos (District 23 incumbent) received over twice as many votes as her opponent in the June Primary. Issues: education, economy, small business. Roger Lasson (R) received just 29% of the vote, no FPPC filing. Voter Registration: 49.6% D, 20% R Demographics: Latino 46.3%, Asian 32.5%, White15.7%, Black 3% Top employers: San Jose State University, Adobe, Accenture Note: Current District 27 incumbent William Monning ran for Senate District 17. RESULT: Campos wins (76.5%). Termed out in 2016.

23 Cupertino Los Gatos San Jose District 22 incumbent Paul Fong (D), 54% of votes in primary. $296K raised through September. Issues: education, healthcare, technology. Voter Registration: 43.5% D, 27% R Demographics: White 50.4%, Asian 26.2%, Latino 17.4%, Black 2.2% Top employers: Apple, ebay, Xilinx, Netflix, Sobrato Chad Walsh (I), 46% of votes in primary with almost 30% of district registered other. $238K raised through September. Recently changed from Republican. Former engineer and IP lawyer. Note: Current District 28 incumbent Luis Alejo ran in District 30 due to redistricting. RESULT: Fong wins (62%). Termed out in 2014.

24 Southern parts of San Jose Mark Stone (D) received 54% of votes in primary election. Santa Cruz County Supervisor. $191K raised through September. Issues: business, environment. Tom Walsh (R) received 32% of votes in primary election. No FPPC filing, no website. Voter Registration: 49.7% D, 23.6% R Demographics: White 60.9%, Latino 23.5%, Asian 9.3%, Black 2.2% Note: Incumbent Linda Halderman (R) did not run for re-election. RESULT: Stone wins (68.4%). Top employers: IBM, Seagate, UC Santa Cruz, CTB/McGraw-Hill

25 Morgan Hill Gilroy Luis Alejo (D-District 28 incumbent) received 59% of the vote in June primary to his opponents 41%. $224K raised through September. Robert Bernosky (R) had no FPPC filing as of last filing period. Voter Registration: 54.5% D, 25.1% R Demographics: Latino 66.3%, White 25.1%, Asian 4.9%, Black 1.7% Top employers: Agriculture, tourism, Anritsu Note: Current District 30 incumbent David G. Valadao (R) ran for the 21 st U.S. Congressional District. RESULT: Alejo wins (62.9%). Termed out in 2016.

26 San Rafael Santa Rosa Ukiah Voter Registration: 49.8% D, 23.3% R Demographics: White 69.9%, Hispanic 19.5%, Black 1.7%, Asian 3.6% No 2012 Race No election this year. Noreen Evans (D) will be up for reelection in Top employers: Kaiser Permanente, Safeway, Comcast, Autodesk, Walmart, Granite Construction

27 Davis Napa Petaluma Vallejo District 5 incumbent Lois Wolk (D) received more than 116,000 votes in the June primary. Her other two opponents are Republican and were write in candidates and received 2,000 and 1,000 votes, respectively. Frank Miranda (R) will be running against Wolk in November. Voter Registration: 49.2% D, 25.6% R Demographics: White 51.5%, Hispanic 25%, Black 7.4%, Asian 11.5% Top employers: UC Davis, Kaiser Permanente, Sutter Health, Wine Industry, Petaluma City School District, USPS Note: Current District 3 incumbent Mark Leno is ran in District 11 due to redistricting. RESULT: Wolk wins (66.1%). Termed out 2016.

28 Livermore San Ramon Walnut Creek Moderate boundary change Incumbent Mark DeSaulnier (D) placed 1 st in the primaries with 57% of the vote. $234K raised. Endorsed by the CA Labor Federation, CA Federation of Teachers, League of Conservation Voters, and the Contra Costa Times. Voter Registration: 44.4% D, 31.1% R Demographics: White 54.7%, Hispanic 20.9%, Asian 14.4%, Black 5.7% Top employers: Kaiser Permanente, John Muir Health, Mt. Diablo Unified School District, Chevron, Bank of America Contender Mark Meuser (R) had no FPPC filing as of last filing period. Endorsed by CA GOP, Contra Costa GOP, Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. RESULT: DeSaulnier wins (60.6%). Termed out in 2016.

29 San Francisco Daly City San Mateo No 2012 Race District 8 is no longer a Bay Area district, but Leland Yee will serve the remainder of his term until Due to a quirk in the redistricting process, residents of former Senate District 8 will elect a new Senator in their new district while keeping Sen. Leland Yee as their representative as well, until 2014 when his term is set to end. This situation is known as acceleration. Voter Registration: 52.8% D, 15.9% R Demographics: White 38.1%, Asian 37.3%, Latino 18.3%, Black 2.4% Top employers: Franklin Templeton Investments, Virgin America, SFO, SF State

30 Richmond Berkeley Oakland Moderate boundary change Loni Hancock, current incumbent (elected 2008), won a vast majority of the votes (123,624) compared to her closest competitor from the Peace and Freedom Party who received 785 votes. $202K raised through September. Voter Registration: 64.2% D, 9.7% R Demographics: White 31.8%, Hispanic 23.9%, Black 19.1%, Asian 20.6% Top employers: UC Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Alta Bates Medical Center, Bayer, Chevron, Sunpower, Wells Fargo, Walmart Mary Catherine McIlroy of the Peace and Freedom Party ran against Hancock. Had no FPPC filing as of last filing period. RESULT: Hancock wins (85.8%). Termed out in 2016.

31 Hayward Fremont San Jose Santa Clara Moderate boundary change No 2012 Race Even numbered district, no November election. Incumbent Ellen Corbett will be termed out in Voter Registration: 50.7% D, 18.9% R Demographics: Asian 40.4%, White 25.4%, Latino 24.3%, Black 5.6% Top employers: Cal State East Bay, Synnex, Cargill Salt, Intel, Kaiser, Applied Materials, Marvell, SVB Financial Group, Cisco

32 San Francisco Daly City Colma Voter Registration: 56.2% D, 9.9% R Demographics: White 38.3%, Hispanic 16.3%, Black 5.4%, Asian 36.2% Top employers: Wells Fargo, UCSF, City of San Francisco, Seton Medical Center, Gap, Kaiser, Safeway, AT&T Senator Mark Leno, incumbent since 2008 in District 3, won 118,023 votes in the June primary. Issues: Education, Higher ed, environment, healthcare, foster youth, renewable energy. Republican Harmeet Dhillon challenged Leno in the election. She won 25,828 votes in the June primary compared to Leno s more than 118,000. Note: Current District 11 incumbent Joe Simitian was termed out. RESULT: Leno wins (84.5%). Termed out in 2016.

33 Palo Alto Redwood City San Mateo South San Francisco Sunnyvale Voter Registration: 49.8% D, 21.8% R Demographics: White 47.6%, Hispanic 21.8%, Asian 24.3%, Black 2.3% Top employers: Stanford University, Lockheed Martin, Oracle, Stanford University Medical Center, Yahoo! Assemblymember Jerry Hill (D-19) placed 1 st in the primaries with 51.1% of the vote. $232K in hand. Endorsed by SF Chronicle, Mercury News, CA Democratic Party, CA Federation of Teachers, SEIU California. Contender Sally Lieber (D) received 22.% of the primary vote. $11K in hand. Endorsed by CA Teachers Assoc., EMILY s List. Note: District 13 incumbent Elaine Alquist was termed out. RESULT: Hill wins (66.9%).

34 Cupertino Los Gatos San Jose Jim Beall (D-Assembly District 24) received 55.5% of the vote in June. Has official party endorsement. Issues: education, transportation. Voter Registration: 45.5% D, 24.6% R Demographics: White 34.3%, Latino 30%, Asian 30%, Black 2.5% Top employers: Apple, ebay, Xilinx, Netflix, Sobrato, San Jose State University, Adobe, Accenture, IBM Joe Coto (D) received 44.5% of the vote in June. Former Superintendent and Assemblymember. Had more than twice as much cash on hand as Beall as of last filing period. Issues: education, healthcare. Note: Incumbent Sam Blakeslee (R) did not run for re-election. RESULT: Beall wins (57.9%).

35 San Jose Morgan Hill Gilroy Bill Monning (D-Assembly District 27) received 60% of the vote in the June primary. $446K raised through September. Issues: tourism, healthcare, budget. Larry Beaman (R), Farmers Insurance agent, had no FPPC filing as of last filing period. Voter Registration: 45.1% D, 29.2% R Demographics: White 56.6%, Latino 30.9%, Asian 7.2%, Black 2% Top employers: UC Santa Cruz, CTB/McGraw-Hill, tourism Note: Incumbent Sharon Runner (R) did not run for re-election. RESULT: Monning wins (62.4%).

36 Stockton Brentwood Antioch District 11 incumbent Jerry McNerney (D) ran in District 9 due to redistricting. He was elected to Congress in Previously he founded and ran a renewable energy company and has championed green job creation in Congress. Endorsed by many local Democratic Assemblymembers and the Contra Costa Times. Raised ~$2 million. Voter Registration: 45.3% D, 35.9% R Demographics: White 36.9%, Asian 13.7%, Latino 37.2%, Black 8.3% Top employers: San Joaquin County, Safeway, Home Depot, Kaiser Permanente, Sutter Delta Medical Center Ricky Gill (R) is a Lodi native, small business owner, farmer and former member of the CA Board of Education. He has been endorsed by the CA Farm Bureau Federation, US Chamber of Commerce, Associated Builders and Contractors. Raised ~$2.5 million. Analysis: McNerney wins (54.1%).

37 Hayward Livermore Union City District 13 incumbent Pete Stark (D), a 20-term veteran and the 6 th most senior member of Congress overall, received 42% of the primary vote. He has raised $751K, and has endorsements from Sens. Boxer and Feinstein, Democratic Leader Pelosi, the CA Democratic Party, and multiple labor groups. Voter Registration: 48.6% D, 24.2% R Demographics: White 37.5%, Asian 28.1%, Latino 23.4%, Black 6.5% Top employers: Hayward Unified School District; California State University, East Bay; Kaiser Permanente; Axygen BioScience Dublin councilmember and prosecutor Eric Swalwell (D) came in a close second in the primaries with 36% of the vote. He has raised $646K, and has endorsements from the SF Chronicle, the Contra Costa Times, the Oakland Tribune, and local officials and police associations. Analysis: Swalwell wins (53.1%).