A History of Presidential Elections
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1 A History of Presidential Elections
2 A Rough Course Schedule! Lecture 1: ! Lecture 2: ! Lecture 3: ! Lecture 4: ! Lecture 5: ! Lecture 6: ! Lecture 7: ! Lecture 8: 1968-today
3 Judge presents President Roosevelt and Senator Mark Hanna, Head of the GOP! TR would never have become president had it not been for McKinley s death! Concerns about an anticipated split in the GOP in 1904! Foreshadowing TR s difficulty finding successor in 1908! Foreshadowing the TR/Taft 1912 split
4 Democrats in 1904: William Jennings Bryan and publisher William Randolph Hearst, Democratic congressman from New York ( )
5 TR s Nomination, 1904: First Time a Succeeding Vice President Nominated; not Tyler (1844), not Fillmore (1852), not Johnson (1868), not Arthur (1884). From now on, TR (1904), Coolidge (1924), Truman (1948), LBJ (1964) and Ford (1976) would be nominated for reelection
6 1904
7 Republicans expected TR to carry forward McKinley s policies! Called for curbs on corporate power (1901)! Meat Inspection Act (1906); Pure Food and Drug Act (1906)! Series of conservation acts! Square Deal for labor
8 TR s Decision to Leave the White House in 1909! TR s Late Progressive Turn! More radical in 1908! Called for corporate regulation! A federal income tax! Inheritance tax! Anticipated problems with the succession and retirement! Anticipated 1912 split
9 William Howard Taft
10 The Crown Prince
11 1908 The Most Uninspiring Slogan
12 1908
13 He Doesn t Realize What is Coming to Him
14 Salvation is Free but it Doesn t Appeal to Him
15 TR Became More Radical Out of Office Who Rules?
16 TR Breaks with Taft
17 1912 GOP Primaries Roosevelt won 278 delegates; Senator LaFollette won 36; President Taft won 48
18 GOP Delegates 1912: However 36 states did not hold primaries, but instead selected delegates via state conventions: Taft 302 votes Roosevelt 107 votes LaFollette 36 votes
19 Taft and Elihu Root! Roosevelt: 51 percent, 1.2 million votes! Taft: 35 percent, 800,000 votes! TR won 9 primaries, including Taft s Ohio! Taft only 2, including TR s New York
20 TR at Progressive Convention, 1912
21 The Progressive Party! Corporate regulation! Inheritance tax on large fortunes! A living wage for workers! A minimum wage for women! Health care! Popular check on Supreme Court! Insurance program for old age! Woman suffrage
22 Bryan decides to sits out 1912 He would nonetheless exert influence over the nomination
23 Democratic National Convention of 1912 (46 Ballots 3 rd longest?)
24 Champ Clark, 1912! Clark held the lead for the first 29 ballots! Fell far short of the 718 needed for 2/3rds, peaking at 556 on the 10 th ballot! Wilson didn t pass Clark until the 30 th ballot and won on the 46 th ballot
25 After losing in 1908 to William Howard Taft, Bryan steered the nomination into Wilson s hands in 1912.
26 Three-Cornered Race, 1912
27 Perceptions of 1912
28 Square Deal, New Deal
29 TR s Huge Crowds Alarmed the Establishments of Both Parties
30 His Rhetoric Alarmed them More! The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price and the get-richquick theory of life.
31 TR, 1912 The Gospel of Luke! Let us remember that, as much has been given us, much will be expected from us, and that true homage comes from the heart as well as from the lips, and shows itself in deeds.
32 TR, 1912! A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy.
33 Milwaukee
34 TR s Speech and Case
35 1912: GOP occupied the White House for 44 of the 52 years following Abraham Lincoln s first presidential victory. That long, streak ended in 1912, when Wilson captured the presidency (while underperforming Bryan s 1908 totals).
36 1912 By County: Progressives Strongest in SD, CA, MI, MN, ME, PA, VT, WA
37 The Splintering of the GOP, 1912 Largest Swings Swings Against Parties! Republicans, 1912: 29%! Democrats: 1968: -21%! Republicans, 1932: -18% Swings Against Incumbents! Taft, 1912: -29%! Hoover, 1932: -18%! G.H.W. Bush, 1992: -16%! Federalists: 1816: -18%! Republicans, 1992: -16%! Democrats, 1920: -15%! Republicans, 1976: -13%
38 1916 GOP Convention Ballot: First 2nd 3 rd Charles E. Hughes T. Roosevelt Elihu Root Chas Fairbanks Albert Cummins John Weeks
39 Carey Cartoon Service, The Rival Shows. American politics as a carnival, showing the challengers Wilson faced in his bid for re-election: Republican opponent Charles Evans Hughes, a possible second run of Bull Schmoosin Teddy Roosevelt, and a potential challenge from former political patron William Jennings Bryan.
40 Why Republicans Should Avoid San Francisco: Part One The St. Francis played a part in Wilson's successful bid. Famous chef of the St. Francis Victor Hirtzler cooked a dinner in 1916 for a benefit for Hughes. Unfortunately for Hughes, the benefit took place during a culinary workers union strike, turning the union against him and causing him to lose California by a tiny margin of votes.
41 Victor Hirtzler Head Chef, St. Francis Hotel! 1916 Waiters Strike! Hirtzler insisted upon the Charles Evans Hughes dinner going ahead, and served the meal himself! When the Waiters Union learned that Hughes had crossed a picket line, they distributed thousands of leaflets denouncing him
42 Election Night 1916
43 Hirtzler Saved the Dinner But he may have lost the election for Hughes
44 It took several days to declare a winner in California! Hughes awoke next day and learned he lost California, and its 13 electoral votes, by only 3,673 ballots! Thus losing the electoral college to Wilson ! The margin of his defeat was far less than the turnout of union voters in San Francisco
45 The 1916 election was a squeaker: Wilson 49% of the popular vote to Hughes 46%. Electoral College even closer: Wilson Won 277 (266 Needed to Win); Wilson Won six states (with 50 Electoral Votes) by less than 5%! New Hampshire, 0.06% (4)! California, 0.38% (13)! North Dakota, 1.50% (5)! New Mexico, 3.56% (3)! Missouri, 3.65% (18)! Washington, 4.25% (7)
46 January 6, 1919! Renunciation of Second Full Term, 1904! Botched Succession, 1908! Party Split, 1912! Destruction of Taft, 1912! Failure of Nomination, 1916! Antagonism of Wilson,
47 Crowded GOP Field in 1920! Hiram Johnson: 966,000 votes (7 states) 30%! Leonard Wood: 711,000 (8 states) 22%! Frank Lowden: 390,000 (1 state) 12%! H. Hoover: 300,000 (0 states) 10%! Harding: 145,000 (1 state) 4.5%
48 First Ballot! Leonard Wood 287.5! Frank Lowden 211.5! Hiram Johnson 133.5! N.M. Butler 69.5! William Sproul 84! Warren Harding 65.5
49 Wood led with 287 on the first ballot; Lowdon second with 211 Wood peaked with 314 on the 4 th ballot; Lowdon with 311 on the 7 th Harding had only 65 on the 1 st ballot; won on the 10th 1 st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Wood Lowdon Johnson Harding Sproul Butler
50 Dark Horse? Will Hays
51 Pictured: Irvine Lenroot! Harding and the party bosses asked Johnson to join the ticket as a progressive balance! When Johnson turned down the offer, they approached Lenroot, who accepted! When Illinois Senator Medill McCormick stood up to nominate Lenroot, several delegates began to shout for Coolidge.
52 Delegates preferred Coolidge over Lenroot as Harding s running mate because he had recently crushed a strike
53 San Francisco: The Democrats Nominate a Roosevelt, 1920
54 Democratic National Convention of 1920 Civic Auditorium, San Francisco! On first ballot, William Gibbs McAdoo led with 266! A. Mitchell Palmer followed closely with 256! McAdoo led on first 9 ballots! Cox didn t achieve the 2/3rds until the 44 th ballot
55 Both Parties Woo Women
56 Harding woos the Solid South as James Cox looks on in alarm
57 1920 GOP Landslide Harding s victory begins decade of GOP dominance, conservative governance and economic policy; Coattails: GOP picks up 10 Senate seats (59-37), gain 63 House seats ( )
58 FDR in 1920: A Boundless Future! Proven himself administratively at the Navy Department! Made peace with Tammany Hall! National candidate at age 38 (only one candidate younger: Breckinridge)! Built a national network of supporters! By losing, would not be entombed in the vice presidency! He could now run for governor of New York in 1922, president in 1924 or 1928! Moreover, his marriage survived affair
59 FDR at Bear Mountain
60 Carrie Fulton Phillips and Harding
61 Harding, Nan, Elizabeth
62 1922 Midterms: Republican Catastrophe Republicans lost a net of 77 House seats and 6 Senate seats
63 Why Republicans Should Avoid San Francisco: Part Two Harding's mysterious death in 1923 at the Palace Hotel. Harding was on a cross-country tour to strengthen his popularity in the midst of Teapot Dome. Some speculated that his death was a poisoning by the oil industry, others claim his wife did it either to save him from the shame of the scandal or as retribution for his notorious philandering and illegitimate children. Florence Harding refused to allow an autopsy.
64 President Harding Dies in San Francisco, August 1923
65 Artist s Depiction of Harding s Death Bed
66 House of Shields
67 1924 Democratic Primaries: William Gibbs McAdoo: 9 states (450,000 votes) 60 percent James M. Cox: 1 state; 10 percent Henry Ford: 1 state; 6 percent (Pictured: Ellen Wilson McAdoo and William Gibbs McAdoo)
68 Al Smith
69 Democratic Convention, 1924
70 Al Smith and FDR 1924 Convention Radio: Oratory and Conversation
71 103 ballots
72 McAdoo led with 431 on the 1 st ballot; had 528 by the 70 th ballot. Smith led with 361 on the 87th ballot. Davis rose to 316 on the 101 st, nominated on the 103 rd
73 Davis/Bryan, 1924
74 FDR, John W. Davis, Al Smith
75 1924: Democrats relegated to the deep south; Davis' 28.8% was the smallest percentage ever won by the Democratic presidential nominee
76 Hoover and Curtis, 1928
77 Al Smith Seeks the Presidency Again, 1928
78 Anti-Smith Cartoon
79 Tone of the convention set by a nearby lynching shortly before it began, inside the convention African American alternates and attendees were encaged within wire fencing in order to segregate them from the white Democrats. There were no black delegates
80 GOP Southern Strategy 1928 Hoover Won Ten Southern States : TX, FL, TN, KY, NC, WV, VA, OK, MD, DE and Came Very Close in AL
81 In the end, Hoover s strategy paid off as he won seven southern states, and still managed to attract the majority of black northern votes. Nevertheless, in an ominous omen for the Republican Party, Northern Democrats received the strongest support from blacks in the party s history in 1928
82 Democrats Relegated to the Deep South
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