Accountability, Divided Government and Presidential Coattails.

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Accountability, Divided Government and Presidential Coattails."

Transcription

1 Presidential VS Parliamentary Elections Accountability, Divided Government and Presidential Coattails. Accountability Presidential Coattails The coattail effect is the tendency for a popular political party leader to attract votes for other candidates of the same party in an election. For example, in the United States, the party of a victorious presidential candidate will often win many seats in Congress as well; these congressmen are voted into office on the coattails of the president. Since 1868 two methods are used to measure presidential coattails in the House elections Direct model: House votes are determined directly by presidential votes plus unrelated and local effects. The simultaneous determination model votes for both offices are simultaneous results of national issues, while factors specific to the presidential campaign enter presidential voting directly and congressional voting in directly. Coattails what this means for government Presidents can exploit the fact that most congressmen wish for re election or advancement to higher office- those leaders who have convinced legislators to support them have been those who convince them that the leaders program must be a successes to improve their chances of winning again. This is dependent on the anticipated behaviour of the electorate.

2 Voters base their voting decisions for Congress upon the same criteria they use in deciding between presidential candidates, or base their congressional votes directly on their presidential votes. They tie the interests of the member of Congress to those of the president. Extensive coattail voting thus enables the president to assemble relatively durable legislative coalitions. Coattail voting helps the president to obtain legislative cooperation in two ways. 1) Direct effect of replacement of opposition party legislators with new members from the president s own party. A president with long coattails is likely to have a large legislative contingent to work with. 2) There is the incentive effect that accompanies a popular president with substantial coattails. If a member of Congress is convinced that the president is popular back in the district and that his constituent s congressional votes are likely to be tied to their presidential votes, then that member will want to be known as a supporter of the president. This may even transcend party lines, but should be accompanied by extensive coattail vote. This is increasingly important for freshman legislators who enter Congress on the presidents coattails. Entering power on the back of presidents coattails leads to cooperation Presidential leadership is the key to executive/ legislative cooperation. The President must make his wishes their wishes and provide incentives. Brady and Lynn 1973 demonstrated that the representatives most faithful to their parties in Congress are freshmen of the president s party who have just been elected, accompanied by a presidential landslide, to replace reps of the opposite party. Evidence for coattails is with Lyndon Johnson success. Some of his success was possible in part because his landslide victory in many congressional

3 districts signalled to their representatives that his program was popular and perhaps that the president himself was a prominent issue among voters. The resulting support in the House for the president s programme is the most visible among northern Democrats in whose districts he did well and who ran behind the president in their districts voting. Johnson s coattails also brought in a new, large liberal Democrat majority, and he combined the replacement and incentive effects by bringing in 44 freshman Democrats from formally Republican districts, who were especially inclined to support the president. When the president s program no longer commanded the popular attention and support that could sway the voters preferences for lower offices, legislative cooperation evaporated. Overall the extent of coattail voting has declined steadily and drastically over the past decades. House members have less fear of national electoral tides associated with a presidential race than they have ever had before. Evidence suggests that this process has advanced so far that incoming president cannot routinely expect to have a majority of his own party in both the House and Senate or that members of his own party will believe that their electoral fates depend very much on his success in office. Divided Government Under this model, the state is divided into branches, and each branch of the state has separate and independent powers and areas of responsibility. The normal division of branches is into the Executive, the Legislative, and the Judicial Proponents of separation of powers believe that it protects democracy. Opponents of separation of powers, have pointed out that it also slows down the process of governing, promotes executive dictatorship and unaccountability, and tends to marginalize the legislature To prevent one branch from becoming supreme, and to induce the branches to cooperate, governance systems employing a separation of powers typically are created with a system of "checks and balances", Checks and

4 balances refers to the various procedural rules that allow one branch to limit another, such as the authority of the president to veto legislation passed by Congress, or the power of Congress to alter the composition and jurisdiction of the federal courts. Lincon I have been told that I am on the road to hell, but I had no idea that it was just a mile down the road with a Dome on it. From 1946to 1992, divided party control of the federal government has occurred 67 percent of the time (or 30 out of 45 years). The opposing interests of the legislature and the executive guarantees that the president and Congress do not share the same policy or ideological preferences. The separation of powers and divided government thus frustrate those who would have government pass laws in a more timely manner. However, separation of powers of Congress and the executive and divided party government both check dictatorship and allow for the protection of representation. The federal government is built upon a purposeful fragmentation of power, a method of representing diverse local interests against the concentration of power The lack of partisan consensus between the president and the Congress stems from several electoral factors. The different nature of congressional and presidential constituencies and elections makes it probable that the president and the Congress will have divergent policy preferences, and these are the foundations for divided government. The president is said to have a national constituency and must appeal to voters on national issues. Members of Congress, on the other hand, have more

5 homogeneous constituencies and appeal to voters on more provincial issues. The battle over the 1991 highway bill is a classic example of this conflict between presidential (national) and congressional (local) constituencies The issue of why government is divided will now be discussed. In greater detail click PARTIES Alesina and Rosenthal argue that when there is a Republican President Congress pulls legislation to the left and vice versa, thus demonstrating the importance of the party. However: By any measure, party organizations have lost power from 1946 to present. For example, with the expansion of primaries rather than conventions, parties have lost control over candidate recruitment and the election process in many states. The parties have lost control of how candidates run under their label. Federal campaign funding of presidential campaigns has allowed candidates to be independent of most party organizations as well as leading to an increase in candidate-oriented campaigns. These circumstances have led to presidential and congressional candidates running as "outsiders" to their own parties Many survey studies also show that the public may hold ideological views, but that these views are not consistent with what parties they support (Flanigan and Zingale 1991). Most people could not say what Bush's, Reagan's or Carter's policies actually are. Pivotal voter theorem is one of the most important theoretical results from the reading. In legislative elections we have pivotal voters who corresponds to a cut point one voter who separates the D voter s (those on the left) from the R voters (those on the right) and policy outcome equals the bliss point of this pivotal voter. Since extremists always vote for their more preferred party, the

6 cutpoint voter is always between the two parties cut points. The cutpoint when R is president is to the right of cutpoint when D is president. Furthermore, policy is most conservative under R president. The pivotal voter is dependant during the midterm elections on whom the president is. The pivotal voter when it is not mid term elections is dependent on who we believe will win the presidency. Davidson (1991) has revealed in a careful analysis of legislative productivity that divided government and legislative activity are not closely linked. He argues that, at best, "... party control is an incomplete guide to legislative activity and productivity. Overall, unified party control of the federal government, as opposed to divided control, made little or no difference in the frequency of passage of major laws or major investigations Bond and Fleisher (1990) show that support is not solely dependent upon unified or divided government. Party is important, but so are presidential leadership skills, public opinion, and the ideological make-up of Congress INCUMBANTS Some scholars (Ansolabehere, Brady, and Fiorina 1990) argue that Democrats may be re-elected at higher rates than Republicans because they are able to dominate redistricting and produce gerrymandered districts, get more campaign funds, and have the built-in advantages of name recognition and the visibility and resources of occupying the office. The high incumbency rate for Democrats thus insulates them from national trends PERSONALITY Presidential leadership is the key to executive/ legislative cooperation. The President must make his wishes their wishes, provide incentives.

7 Not many have been able to but those who have include Wilson in his first year, Johnson during the pre Vietnam period and Regan s first year. President Carter had unified government, yet experienced serious opposition in Congress because it is argued of his lack of leadership skill, unpopularity in the polls, and ideological incompatibility with a significant part of Congress. He also ran against his own party to get the nomination, which left him without a strong ruling coalition in Congress after the election. On the other hand, divided government during the Nixon and Ford presidencies produced some of the most important domestic legislation since World War 11. These laws included Occupational Safety and Health Act of The administration of Roosevelt, Truman, and Carter testify to the fact that party control of both branches is no guarantee of legislative productivity. By the same token, the Nixon-Ford period and the first year of the Reagan administration saw productivity far beyond what would be expected from divided government There are no guarantees that reforms leading to unified party government and giving the president more power would provide more representative, accountable, and efficient lawmaking. In summery: Constitutional structure of government (separation of powers); electoral behavior and the political party system (different constituency bases, ticket splitting, candidate individualism, political recruitment, the Power of incumbency, and the weaknesses of American political parties); and public opinion (the preference of American voters to want divided government in principle). A synthesis of these varying explanations is necessary in order to understand the reasons why they have divided government, Other factors involved in affecting cohesive policy making American government involve, the

8 transformation of the party system, changes in the swing ratio, and unusually high or low cooperation between the president and Congress DO VOTERS PURPOSEFULLY ACT TO ATTRACT DIVIDED GOVERNMENT? Divided government is more likely when voters are sophisticated and conditionally sincerer rather than naive or unconditionally sincere (book) Voters are unable to force a union between the two pillars of power with regard to policy. The voter can t push policy away from the president and past the ideal point of the pivotal voter in the legislative elections: the pivotal voter, not the median voter determines policy MIDTERM COMPARED TO FULL TERM ELECTIONS.- HOW THESE EFFECT DIVIDED GOVERNMENT In American politics, it is a well-established that the party controlling the White House almost always loses votes in congressional midterm elections. In presidential election years, when both the president and Congress are elected simultaneously, voters will be uncertain about the final election outcome and the identity of the president. Given their policy preferences, some voters will have made a mistake when voting for Congress. Expecting to get a Democratic president, for example, they might have voted for a Republican House candidate in order to balance the president with a more conservative Congress. Surprised by the Republicans capturing the White House, these voters are now confronted with policy outcomes that are much more conservative than those they hoped for. Two years later, at the point of congressional midterm elections, these voters will have an incentive to switch their vote to the Democrats in order to balance the president with a more liberal Congress. So midterm losses can be explained by strategic voting on the part of voters fuelled by uncertainty about the outcome of presidential elections. More recent explanations for midterm loss focus on electoral balancing on the part of voters. According to this view, moderate or middle-of-the-road voters take advantage of the checks and balances implicit in the interaction between Congress

9 and the president. Since policy outcomes reflect compromises between the executive and legislative branch, voters can moderate the president by handing control of Congress to the opposing party. When a Republican president is forced to bargain with a Democratic Congress, for example, he will have to accept policy outcomes that are more liberal than those he prefers. Giving control over the two branches of government to opposing parties thus enables moderate voters, even when faced with quite polarised party positions, to get moderated policies. Divided government occurs because middle-of-the-road voters like it; it is not an accident but the result of some voters preference for moderate policies. Many explanations have been proposed for the midterm loss of incumbents in US congressional elections. According to the presidential coat tails view, midterm losses are a negative function of the vote share received in the preceding election. As Campbell aptly summarised it, the bigger they are, the harder they fall Midterm losses are also common in other presidential and parliamentary democracies. Germany is an interesting case study when assessing this point. Owing to the federal structure of the German political system, federal policy outcomes are a compromise between the policy preferences of the parties controlling the Bundestag (the lower chamber) and the parties controlling the Bundesrat (the upper chamber). The federal government is largely unconstrained in the implementation of its ideal policies if the parties supporting it in the Bundestag also possess a majority in the Bundesrat. If, on the other hand, the Bundesrat is controlled by opposition parties, federal policies are moderated because of the opposition s veto power. Since the Bundesrat is composed of representatives of state governments, voters who dislike the policy preferences of the federal government might vote for federal opposition parties in state elections to balance against the federal

10 government. Midterm losses as well as recurring periods of divided government would be the consequence Because of a five per cent threshold set by election laws, parties that gain only a minor share of the popular vote are not represented in the Bundestag at all. With rare exceptions, all parties compete in both federal and state elections. The chancellor is elected by the party coalition that controls a majority of seats in the Bundestag. He or she is wholly dependent on maintaining a parliamentary majority. If a new majority coalition should emerge between federal elections, it can present a candidate to the Bundestag and request a vote of no confidence. If the chancellor loses the vote, the candidate immediately becomes the new chancellor. In Germany, one therefore never observes the kind of divided government so common in the USA, with the executive controlled by one party and the House controlled by the other. Click But with the German political system structured according to federal principles, a different form of divided government can be observed on a regular basis. State governments have exclusive legislative competence in policy areas such as law enforcement, education, and local and state-level administration. For most other policy areas, the federal government and the states share responsibility. At the federal level, states have the ability to influence federal legislation through the upper chamber of the legislature, the Bundesrat. In contrast to the American Senate, the Bundesrat is not elected by the people, but composed of the representatives of state governments. Zustimmungsgesetze passed by the Bundestag require the consent of the Bundesrat in order to become law. Einspruchsgesetze can be vetoed by the Bundesrat, but its veto can be overridden by the Bundestag. Approximately 55 per cent of all bills, including virtually all major bills, are Zustimmungsgesetze and thus require the consent of the upper chamber. The Bundesrat therefore plays an important role in German federal politics. When the Bundestag and Bundesrat are controlled by different party coalitions, policy outcomes tend to represent a compromise between the preferences of the

11 federal government and the opposition parties controlling the Bundesrat. Scharpf famously called this institutional constellation the joint-decision trap. The ability of the federal government to implement its policy preferences depends strongly on control of the Bundesrat. Under conditions of unified government, with the federal government in control of both chambers of the legislature, it is largely unconstrained in its ability to implement policies close to its partisan preferences. In this case, middle-of-the-road voters will have an incentive to use state elections to balance against the federal government by voting for parties that, at the federal level, are part of the legislative opposition. Such electoral balancing will, in time, lead to a switch in the Bundesrat majority, and divided government. Moderate policy outcomes will be the consequence. The central observable implication of this argument is that under unified Government, we expect strong midterm losses for the party coalition controlling the Bundestag. Under divided government, in contrast, voters will have little incentive to engage in electoral balancing. Federal policy outcomes will already be moderated; we therefore do not expect to see systematic midterm losses. State election results will instead be driven by motives unrelated to electoral balancing, such as dissatisfaction with the achievements of the state government or partisan preferences Lohmann, Brady and Rivers they found that parties controlling the federal government on average lose between six and eight percentage points in state elections simply by virtue of holding power at the federal level. These losses can be seen as a result of voters balancing behaviour. The graph clearly shows the impact of unified and divided government on midterm losses. Under divided government (lower panel), we do not witness any systematic midterm loss. Over the federal election cycle, the conditional distribution of changes in vote shares of parties in control of the federal government is almost exactly centred on zero. In other words, under conditions of divided government, parties that are members of the federal coalition government on average neither win nor lose

12 votes in state elections compared with the previous state election, regardless of when the state election takes place in the federal election cycle. Only under conditions of unified government (upper panel) do we observe a systematic midterm loss. The conditional distribution of the changes in party vote shares shifts to the left of zero over the whole course of the federal election cycle, indicating (substantial) losses for the parties that are members of the federal coalition government. The graph suggests that such parties face a median midterm loss of about three to four percentage points (again, compared to the last state election). If we assume that voters engage strategically in electoral balancing, periods of unified government should be uncommon and relatively short lived; and this is indeed what we observe. Between 1949 and 2004, there have been only 16 years of unified government, but 35 years of divided government. Systematic midterm losses occur only when the Bundestag and Bundesrat (the lower and upper chamber of the federal legislature) are both controlled by the same party coalition. Under such conditions of unified government, midterm losses reach considerable proportions, making unified government in Germany unsustainable in the medium- to long-run. QUESTIONS Should we be worried about the effects of divided government? Does it cause deadlock and stalemate? What are the consequences of divided government, are they significant, and in what way? How do we measure the consequences of divided government that is causing large deficits, late budgets, contentious investigations, and a deadlock in law making? Does divided government make any difference? Is there evidence that divided party control of the Congress and White House hinders budgeting, lawmaking and congressional investigations are weak. To kick off answers say:

13 Critics of split party control of government such as Sundquist 1986 assert that an important, negative effect of divided government is the failure of the federal government to pass a budget on time and to make reductions in the deficit Question: Is the inefficiency and non-accountability that critics have associated with divided party control of the presidency and the Congress so severe that America is undergoing a crisis of governance? NO-. Mayhew, Davidson and others have shown that divided government is not the guilty party. The central question related to the debate over the causes and the consequences of divided party control of government. Is the price of increasing presidential accountability and power worth the cost of weakening representation of diverse interests and the protection of minorities in government decision-making?

Part I: Univariate Spatial Model (20%)

Part I: Univariate Spatial Model (20%) 17.251 Fall 2012 Midterm Exam answers Directions: Do the following problem. Part I: Univariate Spatial Model (20%) The nation is faced with a situation in which, if legislation isn t passed, the level

More information

Congressional Elections, 2018 and Beyond

Congressional Elections, 2018 and Beyond Congressional Elections, 2018 and Beyond Robert S. Erikson Columbia University 2018 Conference by the Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston Triple Play: Election 2018; Census 2020; and

More information

Political Parties CHAPTER. Roles of Political Parties

Political Parties CHAPTER. Roles of Political Parties CHAPTER 9 Political Parties IIN THIS CHAPTERI Summary: Political parties are voluntary associations of people who seek to control the government through common principles based upon peaceful and legal

More information

The 2014 Election in Aiken County: The Sales Tax Proposal for Public Schools

The 2014 Election in Aiken County: The Sales Tax Proposal for Public Schools The 2014 Election in Aiken County: The Sales Tax Proposal for Public Schools A Public Service Report The USC Aiken Social Science and Business Research Lab Robert E. Botsch, Director All conclusions in

More information

UC Davis UC Davis Previously Published Works

UC Davis UC Davis Previously Published Works UC Davis UC Davis Previously Published Works Title Constitutional design and 2014 senate election outcomes Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8kx5k8zk Journal Forum (Germany), 12(4) Authors Highton,

More information

The Midterm Elections (And a Peek Toward 2016) Andrew H. Friedman The Washington Update

The Midterm Elections (And a Peek Toward 2016) Andrew H. Friedman The Washington Update The Midterm Elections (And a Peek Toward 2016) Andrew H. Friedman The Washington Update With fiscal deadlines out of the way for 2014, attention is now turning toward the 2014 midterm elections. This white

More information

AP United States Government & Politics EXAM: Congress and the Presidency, Ch. 12 & 13

AP United States Government & Politics EXAM: Congress and the Presidency, Ch. 12 & 13 AP United States Government & Politics EXAM: Congress and the Presidency, Ch. 12 & 13 MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) privileges

More information

Introduction What are political parties, and how do they function in our two-party system? Encourage good behavior among members

Introduction What are political parties, and how do they function in our two-party system? Encourage good behavior among members Chapter 5: Political Parties Section 1 Objectives Define a political party. Describe the major functions of political parties. Identify the reasons why the United States has a two-party system. Understand

More information

AP American Government

AP American Government AP American Government WILSON, CHAPTER 14 The President OVERVIEW A president, chosen by the people and with powers derived from a written constitution, has less power than does a prime minister, even though

More information

Congress has three major functions: lawmaking, representation, and oversight.

Congress has three major functions: lawmaking, representation, and oversight. Unit 5: Congress A legislature is the law-making body of a government. The United States Congress is a bicameral legislature that is, one consisting of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the

More information

Purposes of Elections

Purposes of Elections Purposes of Elections o Regular free elections n guarantee mass political action n enable citizens to influence the actions of their government o Popular election confers on a government the legitimacy

More information

CHAPTER 8 - POLITICAL PARTIES

CHAPTER 8 - POLITICAL PARTIES CHAPTER 8 - POLITICAL PARTIES LEARNING OBJECTIVES After studying Chapter 8, you should be able to: 1. Discuss the meaning and functions of a political party. 2. Discuss the nature of the party-in-the-electorate,

More information

Purpose of Congress. Make laws governing the nation

Purpose of Congress. Make laws governing the nation Basics of Congress Purpose of Congress Make laws governing the nation Framers considered the legislative branch to be the most powerful A member from either chamber may begin the legislative process (excluding

More information

Congressional Incentives & The Textbook Congress : Representation & Getting Re-Elected

Congressional Incentives & The Textbook Congress : Representation & Getting Re-Elected Congressional Incentives & The Textbook Congress : Representation & Getting Re-Elected Carlos Algara calgara@ucdavis.edu November 13, 2017 Agenda 1 Recapping Party Theory in Government 2 District vs. Party

More information

Political Parties. Political Party Systems

Political Parties. Political Party Systems Demonstrate knowledge of local, state, and national elections. Describe the historical development, organization, role, and constituencies of political parties. A political party is a group of people with

More information

connect the people to the government. These institutions include: elections, political parties, interest groups, and the media.

connect the people to the government. These institutions include: elections, political parties, interest groups, and the media. Overriding Questions 1. How has the decline of political parties influenced elections and campaigning? 2. How do political parties positively influence campaigns and elections and how do they negatively

More information

MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question.

MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. Exam Name MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) One of the various ways in which parties contribute to democratic governance is by. A)

More information

Chapter 5: Political Parties Section 1

Chapter 5: Political Parties Section 1 Chapter 5: Political Parties Section 1 What is a Party? The party organization is the party professionals who run the party at all levels by contributing time, money, and skill. The party in government

More information

Political party major parties Republican Democratic

Political party major parties Republican Democratic Political Parties American political parties are election-oriented. Political party - a group of persons who seek to control government by winning elections and holding office. The two major parties in

More information

The California Primary and Redistricting

The California Primary and Redistricting The California Primary and Redistricting This study analyzes what is the important impact of changes in the primary voting rules after a Congressional and Legislative Redistricting. Under a citizen s committee,

More information

(USG 9B) The student will analyze the structure and functions of the executive branch of government.

(USG 9B) The student will analyze the structure and functions of the executive branch of government. The Presidency 1 Student Essential Knowledge and Skills 2 (USG 9B) The student will analyze the structure and functions of the executive branch of government. Including the Constitutional powers of the

More information

Chapter 5: Political Parties Ms. Nguyen American Government Bell Ringer: 1. What is this chapter s EQ? 2. Interpret the quote below: No America

Chapter 5: Political Parties Ms. Nguyen American Government Bell Ringer: 1. What is this chapter s EQ? 2. Interpret the quote below: No America Chapter 5: Political Parties Ms. Nguyen American Government Bell Ringer: 1. What is this chapter s EQ? 2. Interpret the quote below: No America without democracy, no democracy without politics, no politics

More information

Copyrighted Material CHAPTER 1. Introduction

Copyrighted Material CHAPTER 1. Introduction CHAPTER 1 Introduction OK, but here s the fact that nobody ever, ever mentions Democrats win rich people. Over $100,000 in income, you are likely more than not to vote for Democrats. People never point

More information

Magruder s American Government

Magruder s American Government Presentation Pro Magruder s American Government C H A P T E R Political Parties 2001 by Prentice Hall, Inc. S E C T I O N 1 Parties and What They Do What is a political party? What are the major functions

More information

Edexcel GCE Government and Politics: Topic C Politics of the USA Jonathan Vickery

Edexcel GCE Government and Politics: Topic C Politics of the USA Jonathan Vickery Edexcel GCE Government and Politics: Topic C Politics of the USA Jonathan Vickery Content explanation and advice The guidance below expands on the content of A2 Topic C, Politics of the USA, as outlined

More information

The 2014 Legislative Elections

The 2014 Legislative Elections The 2014 Legislative Elections By Tim Storey The 2014 election resulted in Republican dominance of state legislative control unmatched in nearly a century. Riding a surge of disaffection with a president

More information

Amy Tenhouse. Incumbency Surge: Examining the 1996 Margin of Victory for U.S. House Incumbents

Amy Tenhouse. Incumbency Surge: Examining the 1996 Margin of Victory for U.S. House Incumbents Amy Tenhouse Incumbency Surge: Examining the 1996 Margin of Victory for U.S. House Incumbents In 1996, the American public reelected 357 members to the United States House of Representatives; of those

More information

Chapter 5. Political Parties

Chapter 5. Political Parties Chapter 5 Political Parties Section 1: Parties and what they do Winning isn t everything; it s the only thing. Political Party What is a party? A group or persons who seek to control government through

More information

Political Science 10: Introduction to American Politics Week 5

Political Science 10: Introduction to American Politics Week 5 Political Science 10: Introduction to American Politics Week 5 Taylor Carlson tfeenstr@ucsd.edu February 10, 2017 Carlson POLI 10-Week 5 February 10, 2017 1 / 17 Plan for the Day Reading Quiz Go over learning

More information

Applying Ranked Choice Voting to Congressional Elections. The Case for RCV with the Top Four Primary and Multi-Member Districts. Rob Richie, FairVote

Applying Ranked Choice Voting to Congressional Elections. The Case for RCV with the Top Four Primary and Multi-Member Districts. Rob Richie, FairVote Applying Ranked Choice Voting to Congressional Elections The Case for RCV with the Top Four Primary and Multi-Member Districts Rob Richie, FairVote American Exceptionalism: Inescapable Realities for Reformers

More information

Following the Leader: The Impact of Presidential Campaign Visits on Legislative Support for the President's Policy Preferences

Following the Leader: The Impact of Presidential Campaign Visits on Legislative Support for the President's Policy Preferences University of Colorado, Boulder CU Scholar Undergraduate Honors Theses Honors Program Spring 2011 Following the Leader: The Impact of Presidential Campaign Visits on Legislative Support for the President's

More information

Partisan Advantage and Competitiveness in Illinois Redistricting

Partisan Advantage and Competitiveness in Illinois Redistricting Partisan Advantage and Competitiveness in Illinois Redistricting An Updated and Expanded Look By: Cynthia Canary & Kent Redfield June 2015 Using data from the 2014 legislative elections and digging deeper

More information

INTRODUCTION THE REPRESENTATIVES AND SENATORS

INTRODUCTION THE REPRESENTATIVES AND SENATORS C HAPTER OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION The framers of the Constitution conceived of Congress as the center of policymaking in America. Although the prominence of Congress has fluctuated over time, in recent years

More information

Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections

Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections Christopher N. Lawrence Department of Political Science Duke University April 3, 2006 Overview During the 1990s, minor-party

More information

EXTENDING THE SPHERE OF REPRESENTATION:

EXTENDING THE SPHERE OF REPRESENTATION: EXTENDING THE SPHERE OF REPRESENTATION: THE IMPACT OF FAIR REPRESENTATION VOTING ON THE IDEOLOGICAL SPECTRUM OF CONGRESS November 2013 Extend the sphere, and you take in a greater variety of parties and

More information

Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections

Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections Political Sophistication and Third-Party Voting in Recent Presidential Elections Christopher N. Lawrence Department of Political Science Duke University April 3, 2006 Overview During the 1990s, minor-party

More information

2016 State Elections

2016 State Elections 2016 State Elections By Tim Storey and Dan Diorio Voters left the overall partisan landscape in state legislatures relatively unchanged in 2016, despite a tumultuous campaign for the presidency. The GOP

More information

LEARNING OBJECTIVES After studying Chapter 12, you should be able to: 1. Describe the characteristics of our senators and representatives, and the nature of their jobs. 2. Explain what factors have the

More information

The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison

The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison Wisconsin Credit Union League January 25, 2011 Seat Change in States

More information

4) Once every decade, the Constitution requires that the population be counted. This is called the 4)

4) Once every decade, the Constitution requires that the population be counted. This is called the 4) MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) The Founders intended that the House of Representatives be 1) A) professional. B) electorally insulated.

More information

Chapter Summary The Presidents 22nd Amendment, impeachment, Watergate 25th Amendment Presidential Powers

Chapter Summary The Presidents 22nd Amendment, impeachment, Watergate 25th Amendment Presidential Powers Chapter Summary This chapter examines how presidents exercise leadership and looks at limitations on executive authority. Americans expect a lot from presidents (perhaps too much). The myth of the president

More information

Political Polit Parties Parti

Political Polit Parties Parti Political Parties Chapter 5 S E C T I O N 1 What Is a Party? A political party is a group of persons who seek to control government by winning elections and holding office. The two major parties in American

More information

The Stage is set for a Direction Changing November Election

The Stage is set for a Direction Changing November Election The Stage is set for a Direction Changing November Election George Washington University Battleground 55 Republican Analysis: By Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber As we enter the last sprint of this election

More information

Name: Class: Date: ID: A

Name: Class: Date: ID: A Class: Date: Chapter 5 Test Matching IDENTIFYING KEY TERMS Match each item with the correct statement below. You will not use all the terms. Some terms may be used more than once. a. coalition b. political

More information

Comparing Foreign Political Systems Focus Questions for Unit 1

Comparing Foreign Political Systems Focus Questions for Unit 1 Comparing Foreign Political Systems Focus Questions for Unit 1 Any additions or revision to the draft version of the study guide posted earlier in the term are noted in bold. Why should we bother comparing

More information

Analyzing the Legislative Productivity of Congress During the Obama Administration

Analyzing the Legislative Productivity of Congress During the Obama Administration Western Michigan University ScholarWorks at WMU Honors Theses Lee Honors College 12-5-2017 Analyzing the Legislative Productivity of Congress During the Obama Administration Zachary Hunkins Western Michigan

More information

AP US GOVERNMENT: CHAPER 7: POLITICAL PARTIES: ESSENTIAL TO DEMOCRACY

AP US GOVERNMENT: CHAPER 7: POLITICAL PARTIES: ESSENTIAL TO DEMOCRACY AP US GOVERNMENT: CHAPER 7: POLITICAL PARTIES: ESSENTIAL TO DEMOCRACY Before political parties, candidates were listed alphabetically, and those whose names began with the letters A to F did better than

More information

What is The Probability Your Vote will Make a Difference?

What is The Probability Your Vote will Make a Difference? Berkeley Law From the SelectedWorks of Aaron Edlin 2009 What is The Probability Your Vote will Make a Difference? Andrew Gelman, Columbia University Nate Silver Aaron S. Edlin, University of California,

More information

INTRODUCTION PRESIDENTS

INTRODUCTION PRESIDENTS Identify and review major roles and functions of the president, such as chief executive, chief legislator, commander in chief, and crisis manager. Determine the role that public opinion plays in setting

More information

NATIONAL: 2018 HOUSE RACE STABILITY

NATIONAL: 2018 HOUSE RACE STABILITY Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Friday, November 2, 2018 Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

INTRODUCTION THE MEANING OF PARTY

INTRODUCTION THE MEANING OF PARTY C HAPTER OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION Although political parties may not be highly regarded by all, many observers of politics agree that political parties are central to representative government because they

More information

The Presidents Presidential Powers

The Presidents Presidential Powers Name: Government In America, Chapter 13 Big Idea Questions Which mindset do you have? Guided Notes The Presidents Great Expectations 2 mindsets about the presidency Belief in a president of central power

More information

Wednesday, March 7 th

Wednesday, March 7 th Parties and Politics 1 Wednesday, March 7 th Final version of Essay 1 version due in lab tomorrow or Friday Film #2: Glory on Wednesday, March 14 th and Thursday, March 15 th in 140 JSB at 5:00 and 7:30

More information

Exceptions to Symmetry. Congress: The Legislative Branch. In comparative perspective, Congress is unusual.

Exceptions to Symmetry. Congress: The Legislative Branch. In comparative perspective, Congress is unusual. Congress: The Legislative Branch In comparative perspective, Congress is unusual. Most legislatures, particularly in parliamentary systems, are relatively weak. Congress exhibits symmetric bicameralism:

More information

State Legislatures. State & Local Government. Ch. 7

State Legislatures. State & Local Government. Ch. 7 State Legislatures State & Local Government Ch. 7 Legislature in some states is the dominant branch of govt. Highlights State Legislatures have 4 clear functions: 1. Making laws 2. Represent their constituents

More information

DEMOCRACY. United States of America formed between during the War of Independence.

DEMOCRACY. United States of America formed between during the War of Independence. CANADIAN AND AMERICAN GOVERNANCE: A COMPARATIVE LOOK DEMOCRACY United States of America formed between 1776-83 during the War of Independence. Canada formed in 1867 following negotiations by the British

More information

Texas. SUPER DISTRICT A - FIVE SEATS % 2000 Presidential Vote

Texas. SUPER DISTRICT A - FIVE SEATS % 2000 Presidential Vote Texas Racial Representation Of the voting population of 6,232,350, 28.7 are Latino and 11.0 are black. Under the current 32-district system, black voters do not make up the majority in any district and

More information

Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 2008

Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 2008 June 8, 07 Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 08 To: From: Interested Parties Anna Greenberg, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner William Greener, Greener and

More information

It s Democrats +8 in Likely Voter Preference, With Trump and Health Care on Center Stage

It s Democrats +8 in Likely Voter Preference, With Trump and Health Care on Center Stage ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: The 2018 Midterm Elections EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:00 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018 It s Democrats +8 in Likely Voter Preference, With Trump and Health Care on Center

More information

Testimony of FairVote The Center for Voting and Democracy Jack Santucci, Program for Representative Government. October 16, 2006

Testimony of FairVote The Center for Voting and Democracy Jack Santucci, Program for Representative Government. October 16, 2006 Testimony of FairVote The Center for Voting and Democracy Jack Santucci, Program for Representative Government Given in writing to the Assembly Standing Committee on Governmental Operations and Assembly

More information

The University of Akron Bliss Institute Poll: Baseline for the 2018 Election. Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics University of Akron

The University of Akron Bliss Institute Poll: Baseline for the 2018 Election. Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics University of Akron The University of Akron Bliss Institute Poll: Baseline for the 2018 Election Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics University of Akron Executive Summary The 2018 University of Akron Bliss Institute

More information

The Political Spectrum

The Political Spectrum The Political Spectrum 14-20 21-30 31-37 38-46 47-56 Liberal Moderately Moderate Moderately Conservative Liberal Conservative Communists Socialists Democrats Centrists Republicans Libertarians Fascists

More information

CAN FAIR VOTING SYSTEMS REALLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

CAN FAIR VOTING SYSTEMS REALLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE? CAN FAIR VOTING SYSTEMS REALLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE? Facts and figures from Arend Lijphart s landmark study: Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries Prepared by: Fair

More information

Why Americans Hate Congress!

Why Americans Hate Congress! Why Americans Hate Congress! If there's one thing that unifies an otherwise bipolar electorate, it's Congress. We hate it. The American public has spoken and it has almost zero confidence in their lawmakers'

More information

Chapter 6 Democratic Regimes. Copyright 2015 W.W. Norton, Inc.

Chapter 6 Democratic Regimes. Copyright 2015 W.W. Norton, Inc. Chapter 6 Democratic Regimes 1. Democracy Clicker question: A state with should be defined as a nondemocracy. A.a hereditary monarch B.an official, state-sanctioned religion C.a legislative body that is

More information

Chapter Nine. Political Parties

Chapter Nine. Political Parties Chapter Nine Political Parties Political Parties A party is a group that seeks to by supplying them with a label (party identification), by which they are known to the electorate United States parties

More information

Today: (1) Political Parties and Elections (continued) (2) The Founders Legacy. (3) Westward Expansion and Democracy

Today: (1) Political Parties and Elections (continued) (2) The Founders Legacy. (3) Westward Expansion and Democracy Today: (1) Political Parties and Elections (continued) (2) The Founders Legacy (3) Westward Expansion and Democracy Structure and party politics U.S. System Single representative districts Plurality winner

More information

Campaigns & Elections. US Government POS 2041

Campaigns & Elections. US Government POS 2041 Campaigns & Elections US Government POS 2041 Votes for Women, inspired by Katja Von Garner. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvqnjwk W7gA For Discussion Do you think that democracy is endangered by the

More information

Chapter 6 Congress 9/28/2015. Roots of the U.S. Congress 6.1. Bicameral legislature. TABLE 6.1 What are the powers of Congress? 6.

Chapter 6 Congress 9/28/2015. Roots of the U.S. Congress 6.1. Bicameral legislature. TABLE 6.1 What are the powers of Congress? 6. Chapter 6 Congress Roots of the U.S. Congress 6.1 Bicameral legislature House Representatives based on population Two-year term Senate Two from each state Six-year term TABLE 6.1 What are the powers of

More information

Comparative Issues on American and Brazilian Electoral Politics: an Interview with Dr. Royce Carroll

Comparative Issues on American and Brazilian Electoral Politics: an Interview with Dr. Royce Carroll Comparative Issues on American and Brazilian Electoral Politics: an Interview with Dr. Royce Carroll Alessandro Faraje Figueiredo 1 Abstract: In this interview, Royce Carroll discusses many differences

More information

Election 2012 in Review

Election 2012 in Review Election 2012 in Review Photo source: AP, Bradenton Herald John John Coleman Coleman University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Clark University Harrington Lecture, October 24, 2011 Clark University

More information

WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT ELECTIONS WITH PARTISANSHIP

WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT ELECTIONS WITH PARTISANSHIP The Increasing Correlation of WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT ELECTIONS WITH PARTISANSHIP A Statistical Analysis BY CHARLES FRANKLIN Whatever the technically nonpartisan nature of the elections, has the structure

More information

An Increased Incumbency Effect: Reconsidering Evidence

An Increased Incumbency Effect: Reconsidering Evidence part i An Increased Incumbency Effect: Reconsidering Evidence chapter 1 An Increased Incumbency Effect and American Politics Incumbents have always fared well against challengers. Indeed, it would be surprising

More information

Canadian and American Governance: A Comparative Look

Canadian and American Governance: A Comparative Look Canadian and American Governance: A Comparative Look DEMOCRACY The United States of America was formed between 1776-1783 during the War of Independence. Canada was created July 1, 1867 following passage

More information

Popular Vote. Total: 77,734, %

Popular Vote. Total: 77,734, % PRESIDENTIAL 72: A CASE STUDY The 1972 election, in contrast to the extremely close contest of 1968, resulted in a sweeping reelection victory for President Nixon and one of the most massive presidential

More information

Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information

Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information Joseph Bafumi, Dartmouth College Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin

More information

PARTISANSHIP AND WINNER-TAKE-ALL ELECTIONS

PARTISANSHIP AND WINNER-TAKE-ALL ELECTIONS Number of Representatives October 2012 PARTISANSHIP AND WINNER-TAKE-ALL ELECTIONS ANALYZING THE 2010 ELECTIONS TO THE U.S. HOUSE FairVote grounds its analysis of congressional elections in district partisanship.

More information

Chapter 9: Political Parties

Chapter 9: Political Parties Chapter 9: Political Parties What Is a Political Party? (pg.261) - A group of political activists who organize to win elections, to operate the government, and to determine public policy. What is an Interest

More information

Battleground 59: A (Potentially) Wasted Opportunity for the Republican Party Republican Analysis by: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber

Battleground 59: A (Potentially) Wasted Opportunity for the Republican Party Republican Analysis by: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber Battleground 59: A (Potentially) Wasted Opportunity for the Republican Party Republican Analysis by: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber In what seems like so long ago, the 2016 Presidential Election cycle began

More information

AMERICAN GOVERNMENT POWER & PURPOSE

AMERICAN GOVERNMENT POWER & PURPOSE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT POWER & PURPOSE Chapter 7 The Presidency as an Institution Theodore J. Lowi Benjamin Ginsberg Kenneth A. Shepsle Stephen Ansolabhere The Presidency as Paradox The last eight presidents

More information

Parliamentary vs. Presidential Systems

Parliamentary vs. Presidential Systems Parliamentary vs. Presidential Systems Martin Okolikj School of Politics and International Relations (SPIRe) University College Dublin 02 November 2016 1990s Parliamentary vs. Presidential Systems Scholars

More information

Mexico s 2018 Congressional elections

Mexico s 2018 Congressional elections Mexico s 2018 Congressional elections Incremental change no more Eric Magar ITAM Mexico Institute, Wilson Center June 25 th, 2018 General election July 1 st : all seats of the bicameral Congress contested

More information

Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 1994=2010. Report on the Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic bipartisan post election poll

Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 1994=2010. Report on the Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic bipartisan post election poll Date: November 9, 2010 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stan Greenberg and James Carville 1994=2010 Report on the Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic bipartisan post

More information

Lecture Outline: Chapter 10

Lecture Outline: Chapter 10 Lecture Outline: Chapter 10 Congress I. Most Americans see Congress as paralyzed by partisan bickering and incapable of meaningful action. A. The disdain that many citizens have for Congress is expressed

More information

THE PRO S AND CON S OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE SYSTEM

THE PRO S AND CON S OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE SYSTEM High School: U.S. Government Background Information THE PRO S AND CON S OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE SYSTEM There have, in its 200-year history, been a number of critics and proposed reforms to the Electoral

More information

Chapter 7 Political Parties: Essential to Democracy

Chapter 7 Political Parties: Essential to Democracy Key Chapter Questions Chapter 7 Political Parties: Essential to Democracy 1. What do political parties do for American democracy? 2. How has the nomination of candidates changed throughout history? Also,

More information

Political Science 10: Introduction to American Politics Week 10

Political Science 10: Introduction to American Politics Week 10 Political Science 10: Introduction to American Politics Week 10 Taylor Carlson tfeenstr@ucsd.edu March 17, 2017 Carlson POLI 10-Week 10 March 17, 2017 1 / 22 Plan for the Day Go over learning outcomes

More information

President Trump And America s 2020 Presidential Election: An Analytical Framework

President Trump And America s 2020 Presidential Election: An Analytical Framework President Trump And America s 2020 Presidential Election: An Analytical Framework March 6, 2019 Trump 2020 Meets Trump 2016 Trump 2020 Is A Stronger Candidate Than Trump 2016 Looking purely at Trump s

More information

A Delayed Return to Historical Norms: Congressional Party Polarization after the Second World War

A Delayed Return to Historical Norms: Congressional Party Polarization after the Second World War B.J.Pol.S. 36, 000-000 Copyright 2006 Cambridge University Press doi:10.1017/s0000000000000000 Printed in the United Kingdom A Delayed Return to Historical Norms: Congressional Party Polarization after

More information

What Is A Political Party?

What Is A Political Party? What Is A Political Party? A group of office holders, candidates, activists, and voters who identify with a group label and seek to elect to public office individuals who run under that label. Consist

More information

11.002/17.30 Making Public Policy 9/29/14. The Passage of the Affordable Care Act

11.002/17.30 Making Public Policy 9/29/14. The Passage of the Affordable Care Act Essay #1 MIT Student 11.002/17.30 Making Public Policy 9/29/14 The Passage of the Affordable Care Act From Johnson to Nixon, from Clinton to Obama, American presidents have long wanted to reform the American

More information

Unit 4 Political Behavior

Unit 4 Political Behavior Unit 4 Political Behavior Ch. 11 Political Parties Roots of the Two-Party System The Development of the Political Parties, 1800 1824 Jacksonian Democracy, 1824 1860 The Golden Age, 1860 1932 The Modern

More information

Campaign Finance Charges Raise Doubts Among 7% of Clinton Backers FINAL PEW CENTER SURVEY-CLINTON 52%, DOLE 38%, PEROT 9%

Campaign Finance Charges Raise Doubts Among 7% of Clinton Backers FINAL PEW CENTER SURVEY-CLINTON 52%, DOLE 38%, PEROT 9% FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 1996, 5:00 P.M. Campaign Finance Charges Raise Doubts Among 7% of Clinton Backers FINAL PEW CENTER SURVEY-CLINTON 52%, DOLE 38%, PEROT 9% FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

More information

Texas Political Parties (Chapter 05) Texas State Government GOVT Dr. Michael Sullivan

Texas Political Parties (Chapter 05) Texas State Government GOVT Dr. Michael Sullivan Texas Political Parties (Chapter 05) Texas State Government GOVT 2306 192 Dr. Michael Sullivan AGENDA 1. Current Events 2. Review Elections 3. Political Parties 1. Development 2. Organization 3. Functions

More information

To understand the U.S. electoral college and, more generally, American democracy, it is critical to understand that when voters go to the polls on

To understand the U.S. electoral college and, more generally, American democracy, it is critical to understand that when voters go to the polls on To understand the U.S. electoral college and, more generally, American democracy, it is critical to understand that when voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 8th, they are not voting together in

More information

Introduction. Chapter State University of New York Press, Albany

Introduction. Chapter State University of New York Press, Albany Chapter 1 Introduction Divided nation. Polarized America. These are the terms conspicuously used when the media, party elites, and voters describe the United States today. Every day, various news media

More information

***POLITICAL PARTIES*** DEFINITION: A group of politicians, activists, and voters who seek to win elections and control government.

***POLITICAL PARTIES*** DEFINITION: A group of politicians, activists, and voters who seek to win elections and control government. ***POLITICAL PARTIES*** DEFINITION: A group of politicians, activists, and voters who seek to win elections and control government. Ex: Democrat, Republican, Whig, Libertarian KEY FUNCTIONS OF MODERN POLITICAL

More information

Political Economics II Spring Lectures 4-5 Part II Partisan Politics and Political Agency. Torsten Persson, IIES

Political Economics II Spring Lectures 4-5 Part II Partisan Politics and Political Agency. Torsten Persson, IIES Lectures 4-5_190213.pdf Political Economics II Spring 2019 Lectures 4-5 Part II Partisan Politics and Political Agency Torsten Persson, IIES 1 Introduction: Partisan Politics Aims continue exploring policy

More information

Chapter 7 Congress at Work

Chapter 7 Congress at Work Section 7.1 How a Bill Becomes a Law Introduction During each 2-year term of Congress, thousands of bills are introduced often numbering more than 10,000. Of the thousands of bills introduced in each session,

More information

Political Parties Chapter Summary

Political Parties Chapter Summary Political Parties Chapter Summary I. Introduction (234-236) The founding fathers feared that political parties could be forums of corruption and national divisiveness. Today, most observers agree that

More information