The U.S. Electoral System and the 2008 Presidential Elections. Toni M. Fine Assistant Dean Fordham Law School (New York City)

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1 The U.S. Electoral System and the 2008 Presidential Elections Toni M. Fine Assistant Dean Fordham Law School (New York City)

2 Overview of Presentation Brief Summary of Electoral College The Bush versus Gore Election The Current Election Cycle: Where have we been? Where are we now? Where are we going?

3 The U.S. Electoral System: The Electoral College The strange, unique, undemocratic way the U.S. President is elected. Voters cast their vote for electors who have pledged to vote for the indicated candidate. Election day = Tuesday after first Monday in November. # electors per state = # Senators + # Reps -- disproportionate power to smaller states.

4 The U.S. Electoral System: The Electoral College Who Are the Electors? Constitution leaves the selection of the electors to the state legislatures. Electors usually nominated by party conventions, in primary elections, or by party organizations. Slate of electors is elected by popular vote (Tuesday after first Monday in November).

5 The U.S. Electoral System: The Electoral College Electors meet in each state and vote for President and Vice President based on each state s results in general election. Monday after second Wednesday in December. Allocation of delegate votes: Winner-take all: Winner of popular election in state receives all of state s electoral vote. Exceptions: Maine and Nebraska (award their electoral votes proportionally).

6 The U.S. Electoral System: The Electoral College Certified lists of votes sent to Office of Vice President (President of Senate): January 6 --Senate tallies official electoral ballots to determine winner. 538 electoral votes total --candidate receiving majority (at least 270) of electoral votes) wins. If no majority of electoral votes, House elects by ballot (1 vote per state) [Senate chooses VP.]

7 Why An Electoral College? Constitutional Compromise: Purely democratic nomination too reckless. Congress should not have power to select President. Promotes federalism. But: Candidate with popular votes doesn t always become President (e.g., 1876, 1888, 2000).

8 2000 Election: Bush vs. Gore

9 2000 Election: Bush vs. Gore National Totals Florida (25) Totals (and the 3 rd party effect) Candidate George W. Bush (R) Popular Vote % Popular Vote States Carrie d 50,460, Elector al Vote Count Candidate Vote Total % Popular Vote Party George W. Bush 2,912, Republican Al Gore 2,912, Democratic Al Gore (D) 51,003, DC 266 Ralph Nader 97, Green Patrick Buchanan 17, Reform

10 The 2008 Presidential Elections Current Election Cycle: Past/Present/Future Where Have we Been? Selection of Nominees. Naming of Vice Presidential Running Mates. Where Are we Going? Campaigning for the Presidency. The Debates Already Begun. The Presidential Election.

11 The Republican Candidates Selection of Republican Nominee from Among Top Republican Candidates: Mike Huckabee: Former Governor of Arkansas; Southern Baptist minister; lost 110 pounds. Ultra conservative populist. Mitt Romney: Former Governor of Massachusetts; multi-millionaire businessman. Conservative, with a Mormon twist. John McCain: Senator from Arizona; Naval war hero. Centrist on many issues, now trying to prove conservative bona fides. Republican nominee. [Rudy Giuliani: Former Mayor of New York City. Fiscal conservative; liberal on social issues. Once frontrunner, ended campaign January 30 with no delegates.]

12 The Republican Candidates Candidates for Republican Nomination Former Governor Mike Senator John McCain Former Governor Mitt Huckabee (Arkansas) (Arizona) Romney (Mass.)

13 The Democratic Candidates Sen. Joseph Biden (Del.) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY) Sen. Christopher Dodd (Ct.) Former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) Former Senator Representative Dennis Governor Bill Richardson Former Governor Tomas Mike Gravel (Alaska) Kucinich (Oh.) (N.M.) Vilsack (Iowa)

14 The Democratic Candidates Democratic Nominee: Senator Barak Obama (Ill.)

15 The Issues: Voter Importance Which of the following will be most important as you decide how to vote in the presidential election? Economy 58% Health care 13% Terrorism 13% Iraq 9% Immigration 5% [CNN Poll, September 19-21, 2008]

16 The Issues: McCain vs. Obama Domestic: Budget & Economy Tax Policy Corporations Energy & Environment Health Care Affirmative Action Civil Rights Gun Control Abortion

17 The Issues: McCain vs. Obama Domestic (continued): Gay Rights Social Security Judicial Nominations Balanced Budget International: Immigration Homeland Security Iraq Foreign Policy Free Trade

18 Note on Candidate Positions McCain --playing to the conservative base, has changed position on a number of issues, e.g.: Waterboarding as torture. Tax cuts for the wealthy. Energy/environmental issues. Abortion. Obama slight shift to center (e.g., Iraq).

19 The Issues: McCain vs. Obama Budget & Economy Tax Policy McCain Not my strength. I need to be educated. Bailing out Bear Stearns good idea; helping homeowners facing foreclosure bad idea. Control government spending. Deregulation Would veto any tax increase. Require 3/5 vote in Congress to raise taxes. Obama Iraq war costs ruining economy. Would inject $75 billion targeted to working families, seniors, homeowners, and unemployed. More regulation of financial industry. Consumers should be protected with Credit Card Bill of Rights. Need more accountability in sub prime mortgages. Help homeowners living in homes threatened with foreclosure. Eliminate Bush tax cuts for wealthy. No tax increase for individuals/families with income less than $250,000. Tax break for individuals/families with income less than $75,000. Tax relief for senior citizens. Provide tax incentives for corporations that keep jobs in U.S.

20 The Issues: McCain vs. Obama Corporations Energy and Environment McCain Increase deductions on equipment investments. Reduce corporate income tax from 35% to 25%. Cut corporate income taxes to keep jobs in the U.S. but retain subsidies for companies that move jobs offshore. Supports Bush proposal to drill offshore Alaska. Public pressure should be imposed on oil companies to invest in alternatives. Safe nuclear power a possible solution. Supports tougher regulations on emissions. Obama End tax breaks for corporations that send jobs abroad. Hold corporations responsible for pensions. Tax incentives to promote corporate responsibility. Raise fuel efficiency standards. Reduce carbon emissions. Explore safe use of nuclear power. No drilling offshore Alaska. Invest in & provide incentives for sustainable alternative energy sources. 5-E (Energy Efficiency, Environmental Education & Employment) Disconnected Youth Service Corps. Protect Great Lakes & National Parks.

21 The Issues: McCain vs. Obama Health Care Affirmative Action McCain Harness market competition for comprehensive reform. Provide incentives for cost control. No mandated universal of insurance coverage. Opposed. Obama Right to universal health care affordable, comprehensive, and portable. Mandatory health care for children. Reform insurance company reimbursement systems. Drive down health care costs. In favor, when strong evidence of prolonged and systematic discrimination. Should include whites from low socio-economic backgrounds, regardless of race. Fight gender discrimination in the workplace.

22 The Issues: McCain vs. Obama Civil Rights Abortion Social Security McCain Confederate flag in front of state capitol OK. Supports prayer/10 Commandments in schools. Supports Constitutional amendment against flag burning/desecration. Pro-life, except in cases of rape or incest. Government should save women from mistakes. Supports parental notification requirements. Some privatization needed. Should be option to permit private investment of up to 20%. Obama People want to move beyond divisions. Politics of fear undermines basic civil liberties. Confederate flags belong in museums, not state capitols. Pro-choice trusts women to make reproductive choices. Expand access to contraception. Increase sex education. Opposes privatization. Raise cap on payroll tax for earners over $102,000 to generate new revenue.

23 The Issues: McCain vs. Obama Judicial Nominations McCain Appoint more judges like Justice Scalia. Voted to confirm Roberts and Alito. Obama Appoint centrist judges with liberal tendencies. Voted against confirmation of Roberts and Alito.

24 The Issues: McCain vs. Obama Homeland Security Iraq McCain No torture, but against requiring CIA reports on detainees and interrogation methods. Waterboarding -- not torture Surveillance of overseas communications is OK. U.S. citizens can be held as enemy combatants. In favor of war authorization. Envisions broad role for executive. Worth the price in terms of blood and treasure. Iraq is central front in war against Al Qaeda. Architect of troop surge. U.S. troop presence for 100 years OK. Congress has no authority to cut off funds. Obama No torture; Congress defines, not President. No extraordinary renditions. Pursue goal of no nuclear weapons. No presidential power for secret surveillance. Early opposition to war. $2.7 billion per week not Sustainable and has weakened economy. War has diverted resources from Afghanistan/Al Qaeda/ North Korea/Pakistan/Iran. Has compromised troop readiness. Timetable for troop withdrawal (16 months after taking office).

25 The Issues: McCain vs. Obama Foreign Policy McCain U.S. should overthrow rogue governments to keep Americans safe. No dialogue with enemy states. Obama Develop comprehensive strategy against terrorism. Willing to meet with Castro, Kim Jung Il, and Hugo Chavez. Never negotiate out of fear, and never fear to negotiate. Commit $50 billion per year to strengthen weak states at risk. No action against Iran without Congressional approval. Free Trade Reduce barriers to free trade. Free trade with any country except where security risks. No environmental, labor, or other conditions to free trade. Free trade agreements must include strong labor, safety, and environmental standards. Reinvest in U.S. communities burdened by globalization.

26 Other Factors McCain Age; insider; four more years Obama Race; elitism; experience. Race: Get black vote without alienating whites in highly polarized states. The Vice Presidential Nominees. Demographics: The Latino vote. Registration and turnout, esp. young/black voters. White blue collar vote. The Jewish vote. Iraq, Afghanistan, other international events. The debates (and how much they matter).

27 The Current Polls National Poll: Obama now ahead 49% to 41%. Electoral Votes: Obama ahead but has not sealed the deal. CNN Interactive Map: oral.map/index.html.

28 What About Electoral Votes?

29 Major Battleground States Florida McCain 44% Obama 49% Pennsylvania McCain 38% Obama 48% Ohio McCain 48% Obama 46% Virginia McCain 39% Obama 51%

30 The Vice Presidential Nominees Factors to Consider: Location -- Popular politician from a swing state. Compensate for perceived deficiencies. McCain Succession (age 72). Domestic issues, especially the economy. Obama Experience, especially on national security issues. White and male. Gray hair or no hair.

31 The Vice Presidential Candidates: Possible Nominees (R) McCain: Mitt Romney (former Governor, Massachusetts) Fit 61 year-old. Lots of votes in primaries. Business bona fides. Fully vetted during primary campaign. Favorite son in Michigan, important swing state. McCain doesn t like him. Charlie Crist (Governor, Florida): Popular in important swing state. Young, affable, good campaigner.

32 The Vice Presidential Candidates: Possible Nominees (R) McCain: Bobby Jindal (Congressperson, Louisiana) Domestic policy aficionado, particularly well-versed in free-market solutions in health care crisis. Indian-American. Tim Pawlenty (Governor, Minnesota) Help in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Young. Mike Huckabee (former Governor, Arkansas) Energized Christian base in primary race. Appealing campaigner. Could he be President?

33 The Vice Presidential Candidates: Possible Nominees (R) McCain: Joe Lieberman (Senator, Ct.) Pro-war stance. Former Democrat. And the Winner is: Sarah Palin Solidify conservative base. The female vote. Change. Executive experience

34 The Vice Presidential Candidates: Possible Nominees (D) Obama: Sam Nunn (former Senator, Georgia) Former Chair, Senate Armed Services Committee Southern swing state. Conservative on social issues. James Webb (Senator, Virginia) Southern swing state. Former Republican. Navy secretary under Reagan.

35 The Vice Presidential Candidates: Possible Nominees (D) Obama: Bill Richardson (former Governor, N.M.) Popular in west and midwest. Hispanic vote --? Foreign policy credentials. Lack of charisma. Angered Clinton supporters.

36 The Vice Presidential Candidates: Possible Nominees (D) Obama: Tim Kaine (Governor, Virginia) Evan Bayh (Senator, Indiana) Hillary Rodham Clinton (Senator, New York) Received 18 million votes in primaries. Strong support from women and working class whites. Hated by large number of Americans.

37 The Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee And the Winner is: Joe Biden (Senator from Delaware) Gray hair Experience but an insider Excellent foreign policy credentials. E.g., Chair, Senate Foreign relations Committee Can be smug and arrogant, an attack dog

38 Where Are We Going? November 4, 2008: General Election Voters choose slate of electors December 15, 2008: Electors cast their votes in each state. January 6, 2009: Congress counts the votes of the electors. January 20, 2009: Inauguration of the 44 th President of the United States.

Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center

Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Interviews with 339 New Hampshire residents who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and 306 who say they plan to vote