Method and Substance in Macrocomparative Analysis
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1 Method and Substance in Macrocomparative Analysis
2 Research Methods Series General Editors: Bernhard Kittel, Professor of Social Science Methodology, Department of Social Sciences, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Germany and Benoît Rihoux, Professor of Political Science, Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Belgium. In association with the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR), Palgrave Macmillan is delighted to announce the launch of a new book series dedicated to producing cutting-edge titles in Research Methods. While political science currently tends to import methods developed in neighbouring disciplines, the series contributes to developing a methodological apparatus focusing on those methods which are appropriate in dealing with the specific research problems of the discipline. The series provides students and scholars with state-of-the-art scholarship on methodology, methods and techniques. It comprises innovative and intellectually rigorous monographs and edited collections which bridge schools of thought and cross the boundaries of conventional approaches. The series covers both empirical-analytical and interpretive approaches, micro and macro studies, and quantitative and qualitative methods. Titles include: Audie Klotz and Deepa Prakash (editors) QUALITATIVE METHODS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS A Pluralist Guide Lane Kenworthy and Alexander Hicks (editors) METHOD AND SUBSTANCE IN MACROCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS Research Methods Series Series Standing Order ISBN hardcover Series Standing Order ISBN paperback (outside North America only) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and one of the ISBNs quoted above. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, England
3 Method and Substance in Macrocomparative Analysis Edited by Lane Kenworthy Professor of Sociology and Political Science University of Arizona, USA and Alexander Hicks Professor of Sociology Emory University, USA
4 Editorial matter, selection, and introduction Lane Kenworthy and Alexander Hicks 2008 All remaining chapters respective authors 2008 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2008 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Method and substance in macrocomparative analysis / edited by Lane Kenworthy and Alexander Hicks. p. cm. (Research methods series) Includes index. 1. Social sciences Comparative methods. 2. Employment (Economic theory) I. Kenworthy, Lane. II. Hicks, Alexander M. H61.M dc
5 To the memory of Michael Wallerstein friend, colleague, exemplary macrocomparativist
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7 Contents List of Tables List of Figures Notes on Contributors ix xii xiv 1 Introduction 1 Lane Kenworthy and Alexander Hicks 2 Statistical Narratives and the Properties of Macro-Level Variables: Labor Market Institutions and Employment Performance in Macrocomparative Research 29 Bernhard Kittel 3 Comparative Employment Performance: A Fuzzy-Set Analysis 67 Jessica Epstein, Daniel Duerr, Lane Kenworthy, and Charles Ragin 4 Do Family Policies Shape Women s Employment? A Comparative Historical Analysis of France and the Netherlands 91 Joya Misra and Lucian Jude 5 The Welfare State, Family Policies, and Women s Labor Force Participation: Combining Fuzzy-Set and Statistical Methods to Assess Causal Relations and Estimate Causal Effects 135 Scott R. Eliason, Robin Stryker, and Eric Tranby 6 Family Policies and Women s Employment: A Regression Analysis 196 Alexander Hicks and Lane Kenworthy 7 Part-Time Work and the Legacy of Breadwinner Welfare States: A Panel Study of Women s Employment Patterns in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, Jelle Visser and Mara Yerkes vii
8 viii Contents 8 Comparative Regime Analysis: Early Exit from Work in Europe, Japan, and the USA 260 Bernhard Ebbinghaus 9 Identifying the Causal Effect of Political Regimes on Employment 290 Adam Przeworski Index 315
9 List of Tables 1.1 Analytical strengths of the three methodological approaches Summary of the contributions Cross-sectional and time variance components of main variables Autoregression Nonstationarity: Maddala and Wu s Fisher test Service employment and replacement rate: panel models Employment in private sector consumer services, cross-sectional analysis model 1: cross-section model, Controlling for other factors Explaining variation in long-term change of private service employment, Pooled model, first differences Scores for replacement rate Reanalysis using new data for replacement rate Truth table from analysis of all six causal conditions Examples of solution sets Five causal pathways 82 3A.1 Fuzzy-set scores Values regarding work and family, 1990 and Decade means and standard deviations for cumulative left cabinet incumbency Decade means and standard deviations for percentage civilian government employment Decade means and standard deviations for maternity leave index Decade means and standard deviations for public day care index, children ages Decade means and standard deviations for public day care index, children ages 3 School age Decade means and standard deviations for weeks of extended leave Decade means and standard deviations for Cash/Tax Family/Child Benefits Index Decade means and standard deviations for female labor force participation rates 154
10 x List of Tables 5.9 Select five-way and four-way partition tests of goodness-offit F statistics for the outcome High Female Labor Force Participation Subsequent Year Goodness-of-fit for relationships between hypothesized causal condition High Level of Cumulative Left Cabinet Incumbency and select outcomes Goodness-of-fit for relationships between outcome High Female Labor Force Participation Subsequent Year and select hypothesized causal conditions Bootstrapped EDF estimates of compliers average causal effects on female labor force participation rates, with strong left political tradition as the instrument in the intention-totreat analysis Bootstrapped EDF estimates of compliers average causal effects on female labor force participation rates, with all other non-left political traditions as the instrument in the intention-to-treat analysis Correlations between family policy measures Principal components analysis of the four family policy measures Regression results Regression results: change in women s employment on level of family policy generosity Employment rates by presence of children, Distribution of women aged years by labor market status in , by birth cohort A Determinants of labor market status of women inactive (Ref: full-time) B Determinants of labor market status of women short part-time, 1 19 hrs (Ref: full-time) C Determinants of labor market status of women long part-time, hrs (Ref: full-time) A Determinants of labor market transitions into inactivity B Determinants of labor market transitions to job from inactive status Preferred and actual working hours of women with children under six, living in a couple, Preferences for more or less working hours and chances to realize preferences, Determinants of women s preferences for more or less working hours 251
11 List of Tables xi 8.1 Conceptual map of protection, production, and partnership regimes Relative exit rates, men and women aged 60 64, Index of pathways ranked by exit opportunities Early exit from work and regime configurations Different estimates of the average treatment effect Estimates of the effect of the treatment on the treated and on the control group 308
12 List of Figures 1.1 Employment levels and employment change, 1979 to Women s and men s employment levels, Illustration of causal sufficiency and necessity Illustration of nearly always sufficient Illustration of small-n ordinal comparison Mahoney s argument for use of small-n analysis to eliminate a hypothesized sufficient or necessary condition Summary of analysis in Schettkat (2005) Main variables Replacement rate and service sector employment Annual changes in service employment Long-term changes, Employment regulation and private service employment Private service employment: replacement rate effect conditional on employment regulations Change in private service employment, : replacement rate effect conditional on employment regulations Change in private service employment, : replacement rate effect conditional on employment regulations, new data for replacement rate Employment change in low-end private sector services, 1979 to Employment change fuzzy-set scores by employment change raw values Causal condition fuzzy-set scores by raw values Consistency and coverage Poor employment change performance by causal configurations 1 4 from Table Poor employment change performance by causal configuration 5 from Table Employment rate for women as a proportion of all women, Employment rate for women between 25 and 54,
13 List of Figures xiii 4.3 Full-time and part-time employment rates for women aged between 25 and 54, Involuntary part-time work as a proportion of part-time work for women 25 54, Percentage of respondents who believe that work is very important in their life Proposed model explaining women s employment Hypothesized causal chain, including variables used in the empirical analysis Men s and women s employment, Women s employment rates, Women s employment by family policies, decade averages, 1960s 1990s Women s employment by women s preference for employment and women s education Women s educational attainment by family policies, Nordic countries, 1960s 1990s Public child care, age 0 2, 1960s 1990s Public child care, age 3 5, 1960s 1990s Maternity leave, 1960s 1990s Public employment, 1960s 1990s Family policy factor scores, 1960s 1990s Women s employment by family policies and by women s education: over-time within-country patterns Incidence of part-time employment among women Employment population ratios and unemployment rates, women, aged years Employment rates for men aged 55 59/60 64/15 64, Employment rates for women aged 55 59/60 64/ 15 64, Relative exit rates for men aged 60 64, Relative exit rates for women aged 60 64, Average rate of growth of employment in the world, Average difference between productivity and wage growths Labor share as a function of product per worker, by regime Growth of employment as a function of per capita income, by regime Density of per capita income, by regime Density of average world employment growth, by regime 307
14 Notes on Contributors Daniel Duerr is a PhD candidate in sociology at the University of Arizona. His research focuses on the development of the welfare state, stratification and income equality, and the causes of poverty in affluent countries. Bernhard Ebbinghaus is professor of sociology and director, Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES), University of Mannheim, Germany. His recent publications include Reforming Early Retirement in Europe, Japan and the USA (2006). His research interests are welfare state analysis, industrial relations, institutional theory, and comparative methods. Scott Eliason is associate professor of sociology, and faculty affiliate of the Minnesota Population Center, at the University of Minnesota. He is also a faculty fellow at the Center for the Study of Poverty and Inequality at Stanford University. His research interests and publications span the areas of quantitative methodology and statistics, sociology of labor markets, stratification, law and organizations, the welfare state, and the life course. Jessica Epstein is a PhD candidate in sociology at the University of Arizona. Her research interests are the political economy of food and agriculture, political ecology, and research methods. Alexander Hicks is Winship Distinguished Research Professor of Sociology at Emory University. His publications include Social Democracy and Welfare Capitalism (1999) and articles in leading sociology and political science journals. He has twice served as editorial board member for the American Sociological Review and was inaugural co-editor of Socio-Economic Review. Lucian Jude is a former doctoral student in sociology at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. Lane Kenworthy is professor of sociology and political science at the University of Arizona. He studies the causes and consequences of poverty, inequality, mobility, employment, economic growth, and social policy
15 Notes on Contributors xv in affluent countries. He is author of In Search of National Economic Success (1995), Egalitarian Capitalism (2004), and Jobs with Equality (2008). His current book project is tentatively titled Rethinking Inequality and Poverty. Bernhard Kittel is full professor of social science methodology at the University of Oldenburg, Germany. His research interests include methodology of cross-national research, in particular of the welfare state and industrial relations, and the experimental study of political decision making. Recent publications include A Crazy Methodology? On the Limits of Macro-quantitative Social Science Research, International Sociology (2006); European Rigidity vs. American Flexibility? The Institutional Adaptability of Collective Bargaining, Work and Occupations (2005, with Bernhard Ebbinghaus). Joya Misra is associate professor of sociology and public policy at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Her research focuses on comparative welfare states and the intersection of race/ethnicity, nationality, gender, and class in labor markets and social policy. She has published articles in journals such as American Sociological Review, American Journal of Sociology, Socio-Economic Review, and Social Problems. Adam Przeworski is the Carroll and Milton Petrie Professor of Politics at New York University. His books include The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry (1970), Capitalism and Social Democracy (1985), Paper Stones (1986), Democracy and the Market (1991), Democracy and Development (2000), and States and Markets (2003). Recent relevant publications on comparative work family policy and women s employment include articles in the Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis (2007) and Gender & Society (2007). Charles C. Ragin is professor of sociology and political science at the University of Arizona. In 2000/01 he was a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University, and before that he was professor of sociology and political science at Northwestern University. His main interests are methodology, political sociology, and comparative-historical research, with a special focus on such topics as the welfare state, ethnic political mobilization, and international political economy. His books include Redesigning Social Inquiry: Fuzzy Sets and Beyond (2008), Fuzzy-Set Social Science (2000), Constructing Social Research: The Unity and Diversity of Method (1994), What is a Case? Exploring the Foundations of Social Research (with Howard
16 xvi Notes on Contributors S. Becker, 1992), Issues and Alternatives in Comparative Social Research (1991), and The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies (1987). Robin Stryker is professor of sociology and affiliated professor of law at the University of Minnesota. Among her recent publications are Half Empty, Half Full, or Neither?: Law, Inequality and Social Change in Capitalist Democracies, Annual Review of Law & Social Science (2007); A Sociological Approach to Law and the Economy (with Lauren Edelman), in the Handbook of Economic Sociology (2005); The Strength of a Weak Agency: Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the Expansion of State Capacity, (with Nicholas Pedriana), American Journal of Sociology (2004); and Redefining Compassion to Reform Welfare: How Supporters of 1990s US Federal Welfare Reform Aimed for the Moral High Ground (with Pamela Wald), Social Politics (2008). Her current research on the politics of social science in government regulation of equal employment opportunity is supported by the National Science Foundation. Eric Tranby is a PhD candidate in sociology at the University of Minnesota. His research interests include gender and racial inequality in contemporary social life, comparative public policy, and life course research. His dissertation research examines the effect of family policies on women s employment outcomes in the United States, Germany, and Sweden. Ongoing projects include research on gendered labor markets, public policy, and female labor force participation; the diverse experiences of young adulthood; and understandings of racial and religious diversity in the United States. His work has been published in journals such as Social Problems and Research in Social Stratification and Mobility. Jelle Visser is professor of sociology at the University of Amsterdam, where he directs the Amsterdam Institute of Advanced Labour Studies (AIAS). His main work is on labor relations, welfare states, social policies, employment, and trade unions. With Bernhard Ebbinghaus he edited the Trade Unions in the Societies of Europe series (published by Palgrave Macmillan) and with Anton Hemerijck he wrote A Dutch Miracle (1997). Mara Yerkes is a post-doctoral research fellow in sociology at the Erasmus University, Rotterdam. She is the author of What Women Want: Individual Preferences, Heterogeneous Patterns? Her research interests include industrial relations, labor policy, work and care issues, and comparative welfare state research.
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