Leadership and Political Regime. Policy Formulation in Developing Countries GRIPS Development Forum

Transcription

1 Leadership and Political Regime Policy Formulation in Developing Countries GRIPS Development Forum

2 Leadership is Crucial Top leader with proper vision and decisive action is crucial for development. Not all strong leaders are effective leaders. Economic literacy is the key requirement. A good leader is the primary force in institutional change, because he/she can build other necessary conditions and systems. All leaders Strong leaders Effective leaders

3 Good Leaders: Given or Can be Promoted? Obviously, for anyone and for any political regime, existence or absence of good leaders is not directly controllable. But there are indirect ways to raise the probability of emergence of good leaders: Leadership and elite education Comparative studies in development politics Systematic analysis of technical aspects of effective policy making (eg. This course and my book, Learning to Industrialize) Well-calculated cooperation and pressure from foreign governments and aid agencies (eg. Leftwich s DLP) Regional contagion of good leadership (eg. East Asian AD) Biographies, dramas, movies of excellent national leaders

4 East Asia s Solution Adopt Authoritarian Developmentalism (AD) during the take-off (for a few decades) Key ingredients of AD Powerful and wise (=economically literate) top leader Development as a supreme national goal (obsession) Technocrat group to support leader and execute policies Legitimacy derived from successful development Popular support (because of rising income) The leader, as the primary force of change, creates the other four conditions.

5 Authoritarian Developmental States in East Asia China South Korea Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Myanmar North Korea Xi Mao Zedong Deng Xiaoping Jiang Zemin Hu Jintao Jinping Kim Daejunhyun Roh Moo- Park Rhee Syng-man Park Chung-hee Chun Doo-hwan Noh Tae-woo Kim YN Lee MB GH Nationalist Party Estra Quirino Garcia Marcos Aquino Ramos Arroyo B.AquinoⅢ da Sukarno Labor Party People's Action Party Independent Kingdom Chiang Kai-shek Pibulsonggram Sarit Thanom Prem Ho Chi Minh Pham Van Dong Pham Van Dong Kingdom of Laos Kaysone Phomvihane Khamtay Monarchy-Regency Khmer Republic Kim Il Sung Yen CK Chiang Ching-kuo Wa Megawa Wid Suharto Yudhoyono hid ti odo Lee Kuan-yew Goh Chok-tong Lee Hsien Loong UMNO / Rahman Razak Hussein Mahathir Abdullah People's Republic of Kampuchea Ranariddh Hun Sen Phan Van Khai Kim Jong Il Hun Sen Nguyen Tan Dung U Nu Burma Socialist Programme Party /Ne Win SLORC SPDC/Than Shwe Thein Sein Do Muoi Lee Teng-hui Chua n Vo Van Kiet Chuan Sisav ath Chen Shui-bian Thaksin Abhisi t Bounnyang Bouaso ne Ma Ying-jeou Najib Yinglu ck Pra yut Thongsing Kim Jong Un Note: The pink area shows authoritarian developmental leaders and the dark area indicates pre-independence periods. For China, the most influential leader among those holding highest positions is indicated. Source: Information in Suehiro (2000), p.115 was revised, updated, and expanded by the author.

6 Why Power Concentration is Needed? Growth requires a critical mass of mutually enforcing policies. A free hand of the state is needed to mobilize resources quickly and flexibly. Private sector is weak in most developing countries. The state must lead initially. If broad participation is allowed, policies are too slow and can t achieve critical mass due to: --Power struggle, party politics, interest groups, etc. --Processes which require patience and compromise, including parliamentary debate and consensus building --Some groups refuse to cooperate with state purposes

7 Emergence of AD AD emerges through election as well as a coup. AD is more likely to rise when the nation s existence is threatened by: External enemy Internal ethnic/social instability Incompetent and corrupt leader The rise and fall of AD depends on: - Development stage of each country - International environment Eg. Cold War reduced global criticism of authoritarian states Present non-democratic states are not allowed

8 Guaranteed Failure of Development? Samuel P.Huntington and Joan M. Nelson, No Easy Choice: Political Participation in Developing Countries, Harvard Univ. Press, Technocratic Model Populist Model START Political suppression (authoritarianism) Economic growth Rising inequality START Increased participation (democracy) Equalization Economic stagnation Political instability Political instability END END Social explosion!!! Political suppression!!!

9 E.Asia s Authoritarian Developmentalism Economic growth START Developmental policies New social problems (inequality, crime, pollution...) END Political stability A few decades later Exit to a richer & more democratic society (examples: Korea, Taiwan) (checked) Supplementing policies

10 Exit of AD Low income trap Catching-up period (AD useful) High income society Democracy Pluralism AD is a temporary regime of convenience, needed only to push up the country to a higher level. Once a certain level is reached, AD becomes an obstacle to further development. Watanabe (1998) argues that successful AD melts away automatically through social change and democratic aspiration. if development under an authoritarian regime proceeds successfully, it will sow the seeds of its own dissolution [improved living standards and diversified social strata]

11 The Rise and Fall of East Asian Authoritarian Developmentalism Suppress Gov t װ Capitalists Workers, urban dwellers Government-capitalist coalition (undemocratic) years of sustained growth Gov t װ Capitalists Middle Mass Demand for democracy Farmers Workers, urban dwellers, professionals, students Farmers Features: - Crisis as a catalyst - Strong leader - Elite technocrat group - Developmental ideology - Legitimacy through economic results (not election) - Social change after 2-3 decades of success

12 Exit of AD A Less Optimistic View However, there are also barriers to exit: stubborn leader, bureaucratic resistance, interest groups. Therefore, leadership, policy and struggle are also needed for an exit. Succession problem--strong leaders often refuse to step down because they will be revenged, jailed and even executed after transition, with most (all?) of their policies denied and reversed. For a smooth exit, political maturity must accompany economic growth (difficult, but not impossible)

13 Opponents of AD Many people oppose AD for lack of democracy. I do not subscribe to the idea that you need to delay democratization just so that you can actually have growth or that you can have democracy only when you can afford it. (Dani Rodrik, 2006) Some argue that freedom, equality, participation, empowerment are required for development. Expansion of freedom is viewed both as the primary end and as the principal means of development. (Amartya Sen, 1999) MDGs & SDGs, pro-poor or inclusive growth, endogenous development, human security

14 Korean Experience N.T.T.Huyen Is There a Developmental Threshold for Democracy?: Endogenous factors in the Democratization of South Korea (2004) Democracy as an advanced form of politics is not independent from socio-economic development. Developmental threshold for democracy [is] a point in the development process beyond which democracy can be effectively installed and sustained.

15 History of South Korean Politics Syngman Rhee (dictator) Park Chung Hee (dictator) Minjung Movement Chun Doo Hwan (dictator) Roh Tae Woo Student protests Yushin Constitution (1972) Kwangju Massacre (1980) Return to democracy (1987) Corrupt & inefficient Growth under AD & North threat People s protest mounts Picked by Chun to be elected

16 Korea: Per Capita GDP in 1990 USD Economic growth Ms. Huyen s Model Social mobilization Urbanization Industrialization Modernization Political culture Compromise as common political culture Active political participation Values such as equality, moderation Social structure Rise of workers & middle class Old classes losing power Emergence of civil society Democracy

17 Rulers Rulers and upper bourgeoisie Students and professionals Middle class 38.5% Farmers 80% Industrial workers, peasants, miners More than 50% Source: N.T.T.Huyen (2004)

18 Form vs. Substance of Democracy in the Context of Latecomer Development Is AD replicable in Africa? Central Asia? Elsewhere? Does 21st Century allow AD? The Cold War already ended. Can we separate authoritarian elements from developmental elements, and take only the latter? Countries that already have free election, functioning parliament, human rights can they adopt developmentalism without sacrificing their political achievements? Need to go beyond simple dichotomy between AD vs. democracy Need to decompose democracy into components and stages and analyze its structure

19 Components of Democracy Human rights and freedom Legitimacy (election) Rule of law Participation Public purpose Power decentralization (L-E-J, center-local) Only some components should be restricted, if at all, to conduct development policy. Amount of restriction should be reasonable. Random, excessive oppression should never be allowed.

20 Instability of Developing Country Politics Even under the form of democracy, politics may be characterized by instability, personal gains, intolerance and radicalism. Rules have not been institutionalized, and authority is not firmly established or accepted. Election results, human rights, parliamentary rules can be bended, and contested by opponents. Disputes go to extremes (violence and terrorism). Negotiation and compromise are rejected. Revenge politics prosecution, ousting or even execution of former PM or President; complete denial of his/her policies.

21 Africa: Political Regimes Number of countries (total 48) Transition period At civil war Multi-party system 20 Military regime One-party system 10 Colony Sources: Author s classification based on the following datasets and studies: M. Miyamoto & M. Matsuda, eds, Shinsho African History, Kodansha (1997); B. Ndulu, S.A. O Connell, R.H. Bates, P. Collier and C.C. Soludo, eds, The Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa , Cambridge University Press (2008); CIA, World Fact Book, various issues; Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Basic Data of Countries, various issues.

22 Ethiopia s Democratic Developmentalism (DD) Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (in power ) Aiming at paradigm shift from Neo-liberalism to DD DD: A developmental regime that stays in power for long by winning free elections under multiple parties - Strong state promoting value creation and punishing rent seeking - Small farmers as political base (not capitalists) - Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) Example: leather industry promotion - Sticks: tax & ban for unfinished/semi-finished exports - Carrots: Leather Institute (training, technology, etc.), donor support, twinning with India, prioritized allocation of loans/forex, matching with foreign firms, monthly gov tbusiness meetings and monitoring, etc.

23 Institutions, policies, incentives (carrots & sticks) for allocating rents to value creators and punishing rent seekers Drivers of industrialization Gov t װ Ruling party Leadership by strong developmental state Capitalists (Large & medium size producers, merchants, banks, foreign firms) Urban workers, SMEs, service providers Political coalition Donors Professionals Intellectuals Small farmers (Drivers of agriculture?) Ethiopia: DD, ADLI, GTP

24 Are AD and DD Really Different? Today s latecomers are not necessarily more advanced than past latecomers in political maturity, HRD or PSD. They must adopt democracy (elections), free market and globalization because these principles now rule in the world (since 1990s). The substance of development (productivity, competitiveness, policy quality, etc) cannot be realized just by changing political or economic frameworks. AD and DD are different adaptations by national leaders to shifting global environments for the same purpose of development through receiving international aid and support.

25 PM Meles of Ethiopia (Letter dated July 30, 2009) Democratization in developing countries that comes as a result of external pressure is in my view unsustainable because the external pressure is unsustainable. The neoliberal triumphalism is coming to an end. There is an unavoidable trade-off between democratization and policy continuity There is always the risk that the developmental state will be voted out [but] it is not inevitable. One last point I want to stress however is that AD and DD are much closer to each other than AD is to other Authoritarian governments or DD is to other democratic governments. Pure dictatorship AD DD Advanced democracy

26 REFERENCES Huntington, Samuel P., and Joan M. Nelson, No Easy Choice: Political Participation in Developing Countries, Harvard University Press, Iwasaki, Ikuo, Ajia Seiji wo Miru Me: Kaihatsu Dokusai kara Shimin Shakai e (The Perspective on Asian Politics: From Developmental State to Civil Society), Chuko Shinsho, 2001, Japanese. Leftwich, Adrian, "Democracy and Development: Is There Institutional Incompability?" Democratization, 12:5, Dec. 2005, pp Nguyen Thi Thanh Huyen, "Is There a Developmental Threshold for Democracy?: Endogenous Factors in the Democratization of South Korea," in AsDB and VDF, Which Institutions Are Critical to Sustain Long-term Growth in Vietnam? AsDB, 2004 (English and Vietnamese). Noman, A., K. Botchwey, H. Stein, and J.E. Stiglitz, eds, Good Growth and Governance in Africa: Rethinking Development Strategies, Oxford Univ. Press, Ohno, Kenichi, Shijo Iko Senryaku (Strategy for Market Transition), Yuhikaku, 1996, Japanese. Ohno, Izumi, and Kenichi Ohno, Dynamic Capacity Development: What Africa Can Learn from Industrial Policy Formulation in East Asia, ch.7, A. Noman, et al. eds (2012), pp Ohno, Kenichi, "The Role of Government in Promoting Industrialization under Globalization: The East Asian Experience," in ADB and VDF, Which Institutions Are Critical to Sustain Long-term Growth in Vietnam? Asian Development Bank, 2004 (English and Vietnamese).

27 Ohno, Kenichi, Learning to Industrialize: From Given Growth to Policy-aided Value Creation, Routledge, Ohno, Kenichi, and Izumi Ohno, eds, Japanese Views on Economic Development: Diverse Paths to the Market, Routledge, Rodrik, Dani, "Home-grown Growth: Problems and Solutions to Economic Growth," an interview with Harvard International Review, Winter 2006, pp Sen, Amartya, Development as Freedom, Anchor Books, Suehiro, Akira, Catch-up gata Kogyoka ron (Catch-up Type Industrialization), Nagoya University Press, 2000, Japanese. Wade, Robert, "The Case for Open-economy Industrial Policy," paper for PREM conference on the Institutional Foundation of Growth, World Bank, April 2006, Washington, DC, and GRIPS seminar, May 2006, Tokyo. Watanabe, Toshio, Shinseiki Asia no Koso (Designing Asia for the Next Century), Chikuma Shinsho, 1995, Japanese. English translation in Ohno-Ohno (1998). Zenawi, Meles, States and Markets: Neoliberal Limitations and the Case for a Developmental State, ch.5, A. Noman et al. eds (2012), pp