January 28-1 July Nationwide Opinion Poll. In the lead-up to Pakistan s General Election 2018

Transcription

1 January 28-1 July Nationwide Opinion Poll In the lead-up to Pakistan s General Election 218 1

2 About us Mission Statement Location and Contact details We seek to provide quality private polling services in Pakistan. Founded in 217, we have conducted several private polls for one of three major political parties, and one smaller party with representation in the outgoing parliament. We are located in I-8 Markaz Center in Islamabad. To contact us, please our media coordinator at or use the Contact form on our website: ordpress.com/contact/ 2

3 How we work Data collection Data analysis Sent to our client 5 day period maximum 1 to 2 days days Our hundreds of field workers in 12 out of 131 districts in Punjab, Sindh, KPK and Balochistan collect data from respondents Raw data is analyzed and based on our district by district results, we use a uniform swing method taking into 213 general elections results to calculate seat projections Our reports are sent directly to our clients so they can track on-the-ground opinion without a delay of more than a week 3

4 Methodology Survey period: June 28-1 July, 218 Face-to-face interviews of randomly selected registered voters Sample size: 3573 Margin of error: +/- 2% at 95% confidence interval Survey locations selected through random selection of polling stations in every district Male respondents interviewed by male field interviewees, vice versa for female respondents 4

5 Methodology Sample size only includes likely voters, with the first question asked of every respondent being: How likely are you to vote in the upcoming general election?. All respondents with at least a 5% chance of voting are included in the sample Kish and right hand methods used for household member selection and household selection, respectively 5

6 Demographics of our sample 6

7 Demographics: Gender-wise composition of respondents 7

8 Demographics: Education-wise composition of respondents 8

9 Demographics: Age-wise composition of respondents 9

10 Demographics: Rural/Urban composition 1

11 Demographics: respondents by religious sect/religion 11

12 Demographics: respondents by family income 12

13 Demographics: respondents by family income 13

14 Demographics: respondents by province 14

15 Overall/ province Voting Intention 15

16 Nationwide Voting Intention 16

17 Punjab Voting Intention 17

18 Sindh Voting Intention 18

19 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Voting Intention 19

20 Baluchistan Voting Intention 2

21 Overall/provinc e Voting Intention PTI reaches 3% threshold for the first time since we began polling in nationwide voting intention Punjab a neck-and-neck contest PPP likely to continue to dominate Sindh PTI likely to continue to dominate KPK Baluchistan to repeat a split vote as is typical 21

22 Region-wise voting intention 22

23 Northwest Punjab Voting Intention 23

24 South Punjab Voting Intention 24

25 Central Punjab Voting Intention 25

26 Interior Sindh Voting Intention 26

27 Urban Sindh Voting Intention 27

28 Region-wise Voting Intention Expect PTI to do well in South Punjab and Northwest Punjab PML(N) dominant in Central Punjab PPP likely to sweep Interior Sindh as GDA fails to put up a strong contest MQM(P) ahead in Urban Sindh but gains likely for PTI and PPP 28

29 Voting Intention in major districts/urban areas 29

30 Note These results are based on a very small size of respondents drawn from within the sample The district-wise results ARE NOT based on separate samples 3

31 Lahore Voting Intention 31

32 Faisalabad Voting Intention 32

33 Rawalpindi Voting Intention 33

34 Karachi Voting Intention 34

35 Muzaffargarh Voting Intention 35

36 Multan Voting Intention 36

37 Peshawar Voting Intention 37

38 Gujranwala Voting Intention 38

39 Rahim Yar Khan Voting Intention 39

40 Demographics and influence on voting behavior 4

41 Gender and Voting Intention 41

42 Education and Voting Intention 42

43 Religion/Religious Sect and Voting Intention 43

44 Family Income and Voting Intention 44

45 Age and Voting Intention 45

46 Key points No substantial gender gap although PTI does better amongst men and PML(N) does better amongst women Higher education level and family income correlates with higher likeliness to vote for PTI, opposite for PML(N) PTI does better amongst younger voters 46

47 Responses to other questions 47

48 Likeliness to vote 48

49 Preferred Prime Minister 49

50 Most important issue for voters 5

51 Voters opinion on fairness of the election 51

52 Key points No substantial gender gap although PTI does better amongst men and PML(N) does better amongst women Higher education level and family income correlates with higher likeliness to vote for PTI, opposite for PML(N) PTI does better amongst younger voters 52

53 Other indicators and voting intention 53

54 Likeliness to vote and Voting Intention 54

55 Most important issue and Voting Intention 55

56 Most important issue and Voting Intention 56

57 Key points Enthusiasm gap could detriment PTI s chances, PML(N) supporters more enthusiastic PML(N) does better among voters worried about inflation, PTI among voters worried about corruption PML(N) supporters worried about fairness of election, PTI supporters less worried 57

58 Seat Projections 58

59 How we come up with seat projections? A uniform swing method is used to translate opinion polls into seats in a first past the post system Using district-by-district voting intention, we compare it to the results of previous elections, and expecting a uniform swing across all seats, predict how many seats each party can win Not an entirely accurate system for seat projections given substantial fluctuations in swing in Pakistani elections as candidates play a huge role instead of parties in most constituencies 59

60 Seat Projections Detailed Punjab Sindh KPK Balochistan ICT Total PML(N) PTI PPP MQM(P) MMA ANP 2 2 GDA 4 4 PSP 1 1 TLP BAP Other/Indep. 6

61 Seat Projections 61