New Attempts to Reduce Overreporting of Voter Turnout and Their Effects. Eva Zeglovits and Sylvia Kritzinger

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "New Attempts to Reduce Overreporting of Voter Turnout and Their Effects. Eva Zeglovits and Sylvia Kritzinger"

Transcription

1 International Journal of Public Opinion Research Vol. 26 No ß The Author Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The World Association for Public Opinion Research. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. doi: /ijpor/edt010 Advance Access publication 13 June 2013 RESEARCH NOTE New Attempts to Reduce Overreporting of Voter Turnout and Their Effects Eva Zeglovits and Sylvia Kritzinger Department of Methods in the Social Sciences, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Introduction Information on voter turnout is often used to draw conclusions on the state of democracy and democratic representation and is thus a crucial measure when studying electoral behavior in liberal democracies. Thus, turnout is an important variable in electoral surveys. However, electoral researchers are often confronted with the problem of overreporting : The proportion of respondents who report that they voted is higher than the actual turnout in the election (e.g. Traugott & Katosh, 1979). In many countries, the only possible way to gather knowledge on electoral participation is by relying on reported turnout, as validated turnout is simply not accessible. The challenge is therefore to improve the survey questions to reduce potential sources of error in reporting turnout. In this article, we focus on the problem of misreporting. First, we test different new question formats capturing both memory failure and social desirability bias. Second, we analyze the impact a reduction of overreporting has on followup questions. Thus, we look at possible spillover effects. As the individual probability for a nonvoter to overreport turnout is higher in countries with high turnout (Karp & Brockington, 2005), for our tests we choose a country featuring this characteristic, namely Austria. Austria has been known for its comparatively high turnout rates, which were >90% until the mid-1980s but declined in the 1990s as in many other countries (Franklin, 2004). All correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Eva Zeglovits, Department of Methods in the Social Sciences, University of Vienna, Rathausstr. 19/1/9, 1010 Vienna, Austria. eva.zeglovits@univie.ac.at

2 RESEARCH NOTE 225 The Challenge: Finding a More Valid Question for Voter Turnout Our aim is to obtain a more valid question for reporting turnout in surveys. This is necessary, since we know, for instance, that overreporting is not distributed equally across the electorate: Overreporting correlates with individual characteristics (e.g. Bernstein, Chadha, & Montjoy, 2001; Cassel, 2003; Hill & Hurley, 1984; Presser & Traugott, 1992) and contextual variables (e.g. Karp & Brockington, 2005); moreover, the impact of individual characteristics is sensitive to context as well (Gòrecki, 2011). Conclusions drawn from the analyses of self-reported turnout are thus biased. Scholars have identified a number of causes for these deviations in reported turnout in surveys (Holbrook & Krosnick, 2010): Errors that are related to sampling, such as noncoverage or survey nonresponse (Traugott & Katosh, 1979); effects of pre-election interviews (Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987); measurement or reporting accuracy errors, such as memory errors or unintentional misreporting (Belli, Moore, & VanHoewyk, 2006; Belli, Traugott, Young, & McGonagle, 1999; Stockè, 2007; Stockè & Stark, 2007); and, finally, intentional misreporting owing to social desirability (Bernstein et al., 2001; Silver, Anderson, & Abramson, 1986; Stockè & Stark, 2007). In this article, we focus on these latter two aspects, memory failure and social desirability bias, as they might not be independent from each other: Respondents might choose to remember their past behavior in a more socially desirable way (Abelson, Loftus, & Greenwald 1992). There have been several attempts to reduce the misreporting problem: (1) Introducing new ways of wording questions; (2) diversifying response options; and (3) using indirect ways of asking. 1 As a result, most electoral studies do not just simply and directly ask for turnout in the previous elections, but connect the question with some stimulus meant to reduce misreporting. For instance, the European Social Survey (round 5) uses the statement Some people don t vote nowadays for one reason or another, while the American National Election Study (ANES) asks In talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they were not registered, they were sick, or they just didn t have the time. However, findings suggest that this does not reduce overreporting compared with the simple and direct question on turnout (Abelson et al., 1992). Belli et al. (1999) and Belli et al. (2006) developed additional instruments to simultaneously reduce intentional false answers as well as memory failure. They changed the stimulus by including a long explanatory statement to assist respondents in remembering the election of interest and by diversifying the response options to report nonvoting, listing different face-saving answers. Importantly, both measures reduced overreporting compared with the standard question in the ANES. We extend these findings and explore whether this latest attempt (Belli et al., 2006) reduces overreporting in other contexts as well. This seems all the more important, as this instrument has been tested successfully in the US context but failed in Israel (Waismel-Manor & Sarid, 2011). Additionally, we develop and test a new form of diversification of response options. This new form tries to capture the likelihood of 1 See, for example, the item count technique (Holbrook & Krosnick, 2010).

3 226 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH turnout after the election by listing memory-failure options. It provides response options that allow respondents to say that they simply cannot remember. Overreporting is sensitive to context (Karp & Brockington, 2005). In countries where turnout is high, reported turnout is also high. On the one hand, for the single individual, it might be more difficult to admit nonvoting, on the other hand, respondents might have been more likely to have thought about voting resulting in higher proportion of misremembering. Thus, we select a county with high levels of turnout, where the risk of overreporting for every nonvoter is high, namely Austria. As validated turnout data are not available in Austria, testing reported turnout is a main challenge. However, it becomes all the more important, as the improvement of survey questions is the only possibility to obtain more valid turnout responses. Thus, we follow Holbrook and Krosnick (2010, 2013) and rely on indirect evidence in testing these new attempts: We assume that lower levels of reported turnout in general and in comparison with the actual turnout in particular can be interpreted as a reduction of overreporting. 2 Providing respondents with a number of response options where they can express more easily both their memory failure and their unsocial behavior might also have an impact on follow-up questions. Questions that make respondents think about their past behavior can shift responses focusing on future behavior. The content of earlier questions gives access to information and behavior (e.g. possibilities to admit nonvoting) that will then affect the following questions (e.g. Sudman, Bradburn, & Schwarz, 1996). These latter responses might be a function of the questions presented earlier in a survey (Kaplan, Luchman, & Mock, 2013). Indeed, Presser (1990) found that the possibility to report socially desirable behavior in the past reduces the need to present oneself as a good citizen when talking about the most recent election. Therefore, if new question forms help respondents admit that they did not vote in the previous election, this might increase the probability that they also admit that they will not vote in a future election. For the design of pre-election surveys, where the focus is on gathering the most probable turnout in the upcoming elections, this will be of great importance. Thus, we look at possible spillover or sequencing effects on other questions (Transue, Lee, & Aldrich, 2009) which, to our knowledge, has not yet been researched in the field of turnout question. Development and Comparison of Question Wording Testing Different Turnout Questions To test our different question versions, we set up a survey experiment testing three different treatments. The experiment ran in January 2011, which is >2 years after the most recent federal election took place in Austria. Memory failure is generally known to increase with time (Saris and Gallhofer, 2007), and time delays are said to increase instances of overreporting and add to memory failures in the turnout question 2 Self-reported turnout is known to consist mainly of voters and overreporters, while underreporting is a minor problem (e.g. Traugott & Katosh, 1979; Abelson, Loftus, & Greewald, 1992; Belli, Traugott, Young, & McGonagle, 1999; Belli, Moore, & VanHoewyk, 2006; Selb & Munzert, 2013). This is why we interpret the share of self-reported voters as the sum of true voters and overreporters.

4 RESEARCH NOTE 227 (Abelson et al., 1992; Belli et al., 1999; Stockè, 2007; Waismel-Manor & Sarid 2011). To minimize memory failures, we made sure people were thinking of the correct election. We added an explanatory statement for all treatment groups that introduced the topic and reminded respondents of the election in 2008 by emphasizing first the political actors who were involved then, and second, by pointing to the surprising early collapse of the coalition. Cognitive testing 3 confirmed that with this introduction respondents remembered the requested election. Introduction: The following question deals with the federal elections that took place in September 2008, after the grand coalition of Gusenbauer and Molterer collapsed with the words It s enough, and that resulted in Werner Faymann being chancellor. 4 Treatment A included the standard question version of most election studies, and thus formed our control group: Treatment A: Introduction plus In this election a lot of people could not vote or chose not to vote for good reasons. What about you? Did you vote or not? In Treatment B, we used the approach developed by Belli et al. (2006) with a response scale including four possible answers, three of them offering response options to report nonvoting of which two included face-saving options. Although minor changes were necessary in the question wording, we kept the response options identical: Treatment B: Introduction plus In talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they were sick, did not have the time, or were just not interested. Which of the following statements best describes you? [READ ALOUD] 1. I did not vote in the federal election in Sept I thought about voting this time but didn t. 3. I usually vote but didn t this time. 4. I am sure I voted in the federal election in Sept [DO NOT READ ALOUD; VOLUNTEERED] I voted by absentee ballot. Meanwhile, Treatment C included a new array of response options tackling in particular memory failure. We derived the idea from the propensity to turnout, which is usually asked in pre-election surveys, and measures the likelihood of electoral participation in the upcoming elections. For Treatment C, we asked on a 4-point scale whether the respondent was sure that she voted. Thus, the response options offer 3 Cognitive testing describes a set of techniques that is used to gain insight in the process of responding to a survey question, covering the stages of comprehension, recall, decision, and choosing a response option (Willis, 2005). We conducted 20 cognitive interviews in 2011; 10 respondents were assigned to the split in which the turnout question was asked. One person was not eligible to vote in 2008 and thus did not answer the question. 4 In this article, we present the English translations of the questions. All questions were asked in German, which has the side effect that this article contributes to enlarge the applicability of questions to a non- English speaking country. The German versions are available on request.

5 228 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH memory failure and face-saving options. Again, in cognitive testing respondents did not report any difficulties in understanding the stimulus or the response options. Treatment C: Introduction plus In this election, a lot of people could not vote or chose not to vote for good reasons. This election is some time ago now. Which of the following statements describes you best? [READ ALOUD] 1. I am sure I did not vote in the federal election in September I am not sure if I voted but I think it is more likely that I did not. 3. I am not sure if I voted but I think it is more likely that I did. 4. I am sure that I voted in the federal election in September To sum up, Treatment A was the standard question and forms the reference point; Treatments B and C represented question versions that offer further response options. We expected that both of the alternative question wordings (B and C) should lead to fewer instances of misreporting, and therefore to lower rates of reported turnout than the standard question. Data We conducted the survey experiment in a telephone survey. 5 In our experiment, we only included respondents who were eligible to vote in the last election: these are respondents with Austrian citizenship who were at least 16 years old in The randomized assignment to the treatment groups led to slightly different subsample sizes (A: 291, B: 268, C: 290). We checked whether the subsamples had equal distributions according to the most common socio-demographic variables. There were no significant differences for the distribution of age, region, and gender (Chi-square goodness of fit test, all p >.05). However, education and employment status (in a job yes/no) were not distributed equally across treatment groups. As age is correlated with both education and employment status, we calculated a post-stratification weight 6 that equally distributed education, employment status, and age across the treatment groups. By doing so, all treatment groups resembled the population. Results of the Survey Experiment: Overall Levels of Reported Turnout In a first step, we performed a descriptive analysis of reported turnout in the different treatment groups. Using the standard question (A), 82.2% of respondents reported 5 The survey was conducted by the Institute for Panel Research (Vienna), from January 17, 2011 to February 11, The population was people living in Austria aged 16 years with sufficient knowledge of German language to participate in a survey. The sampling procedure was regionally stratified random sampling of telephone numbers from the Austrian phone book, including all registered landline and cell phones. Invalid numbers were dropped and replaced by valid ones. The proportion of completed interviews (1,510) given the total number of valid phone numbers (3,000) was 50.3%. The experiment included two more treatments, not reported here. 6 For all combinations of education, employment status, and age groups, the distribution within each treatment group was adapted to the distribution in the overall sample. This weight was used as a probability weight in the Stata procedures used for later analyses. We truncated the weight at 0.5 and 2.

6 RESEARCH NOTE 229 having voted, whereas in Treatment B, 78.4% reported turnout. Nearly 5% of the respondents chose one of the two face-saving response options; 14.0% declared openly they did not vote. In Treatment C, 74.6% declared themselves to be sure that they voted, 14.8% that they did not, which leaves >5% who reported that they were not sure whether they voted or not (see Table A1). Following Holbrook and Krosnick (2010, 2013), first we compared the real aggregate turnout in the federal elections 2008 (78.8%) with the aggregate levels of directly reported turnout for Treatments A, B, and C. As pointed out, this approach was chosen, as cross-validating respondents reported turnout with their real turnout is legally not possible in Austria. We are aware that by doing so, we cannot distinguish sampling or coverage errors; however, our respondents resembled the electorate quite well by excluding all people not eligible to vote in the election of interest and carefully comparing socio-demographic distributions. Second, we analyzed whether the different alternative treatments lead to different reported turnout compared with the standard question. We compared proportions of reported voters using a simple one-sided z-test, excluding all respondents who refused to answer the question. For Treatment C, we chose a conservative approach and counted respondents who said they were not sure but probably voted as voters, whereas respondents who said they were not sure but probably did not vote are counted as nonvoters. Regarding the actual behavior, our findings showed that the standard question overestimates turnout: The overestimation is significant despite the small sample sizes (see Table 1). Most importantly, though, the total reported turnout in Treatments B and C was not particularly different from the actual turnout of 78.8%. Thus, in both alternative question versions, the phenomenon of overreporting is no longer statistically detectable when compared with actual turnout. Comparing the different alternative treatments with the standard question, our analyses revealed that although self-reported turnout in Treatments B and C was lower than in A, these differences were barely not significant (choosing an alpha of 0.05), although both p-values are smaller than Most likely, we did not achieve statistical significance owing to the small sample sizes in our treatment groups. As Treatments B and C both performed better when taking the actual turnout into account and had lower self-reported turnout than the standard question, we have first indications that their question wordings and diversified response options may be preferable to the standard question if we want to reduce overreporting. Our data give us indirect evidence that 6 out of 21 nonvoters reported voting in Treatment A(85% reported turnout compared with 79%), whereas in Treatments B and C less than 2 out of 21 nonvoters did so. 7 One might add that in cases with small n, one could also choose an Alpha of 0.1, as there might not be a negative consequence of wrongly rejecting the null hypothesis and thus assuming that the new question performs better than the standard question (e.g. Black 2009, p.397). Moreover, if we count all the respondents who chose they were not sure but probably voted also as nonvoters, the p-value is 0.02, indicating a difference between treatment A and C.

7 230 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH Table 1 Results of the Survey Experiment Estimated Turnout and Z-tests A B C Voted (P*100) Did not vote Valid n Standard error of P Z-test comparing treatments to overall turnout of 78.8% Z P(Treat) real ¼jP(Treat).788j/SE P(Treat) p-value Z-test comparing treatments to standard question (Treatment A) Z P(A) P(treat) ¼jP(A) P(Treat)j/SE P(A) P(Treat) p-value Note. Weighted data; (SE P(A) P(Treat) ) 2 ¼ SE P(A) 2 þ SE P(Treat) 2. Consequences on Follow-up Questions: Sequencing Effects Experimental treatment might not only affect the questions within the survey experiment but could also have consequences in the sense of spillover effects on later survey questions (Gaines, Kuklinski, & Quirk, 2007; Transue et al., 2009). In our survey, the question following the treatments was about party choice in the 2008 election but only for those who declared themselves as voters. The next question referred to the next election: Imagine if there would be a Federal election next Sunday, which party would you vote for? It was the first question after the experimental treatments for those who had admitted nonvoting. Response options were not read aloud. Interviewers assigned the responses to one category of a given list, including the names of all parties represented in the Austrian National Council, a category other party, a category would not vote/no party, and a category don t know / no answer. Table 2 shows the percentages of party voters, nonvoters, and undecided voters in the three treatment groups. Using z-scores again, we find that reported nonvoting in upcoming elections was affected by the different stimuli in the retrospective turnout question. Compared with respondents of Treatment A, a significantly higher proportion of respondents in Treatments B and C openly declared themselves to be nonvoters when asked which party they would vote for: It appears that respondents were less concerned of admitting that they would not turn out to vote, if (face-saving) options for reporting nonvoting were offered previously. We therefore conclude that reducing overreporting in the turnout question also has spillover effects on later questions. Once the question makes it easier to report nonvoting in the last election, this effect seems to persist, as respondents are then more likely to declare that they will also not turn out in an upcoming election.

8 Table 2 Spillover Effects on the Follow-up Question RESEARCH NOTE 231 Prospective Turnout and Z-tests A B C Declared for a party (%) Declared nonvoter (%) Declared undecided (neither nor) (%) n Standard error of p(nonvoter) Z-test comparing share of nonvoters in treatments to standard question (Treatment A) Z P(A) P(treat) ¼jP(A) P(Treat)j/SE P(A) P(Treat) p-value (one-sided) Note. Weighted data, percentages in response categories, rounded numbers. Discussion Our experiment presented new evidence that alternative question wordings and response options help to reduce overreporting of turnout to some extent also in a country with high turnout, such as Austria. Both, the question version adapted from Belli et al. (2006), and our newly developed question version provided levels of overall reported turnout that did not differ significantly from the real aggregate level of turnout. Both question versions successfully offered enough options to induce people to say that they did not vote, be it because of memory failure or because of social desirability. Compared with the standard questions, both new forms slightly reduced reported turnout, but the difference failed to be statistically significant by a small margin. Based on these results, we argue that the question wordings of Treatments B and C would improve the measurement of voter turnout, as potential sources of overreporting are reduced. Should they be used in different circumstances? This question is difficult to answer, as both question versions were tested at the same time and in the same country. We, however, speculate that Treatment B might be a better measure for post-election surveys, which are usually conducted immediately after an election, where memory errors will still be minimal but social desirability will be high: This kind of misreporting is very well captured in the response options of Treatment B. Meanwhile, the diversification of response options in Treatment C might be particularly useful for recalling turnout in previous elections as often asked in pre-election surveys where misreporting owing to memory failure will be naturally higher while social desirability might have decreased. Future comparative research taking into account how much time has passed since the last election should shed more light on this first speculative distinction. Offering more (face-saving) options for reporting nonvoting had also a spillover effect on questions regarding upcoming elections. The turnout questions in Treatments B and C led to different response behaviors in the following connected question. This even emphasizes the importance of our finding concerning alternative turnout questions, as also the bias in subsequent questions will be reduced.

9 232 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH Our experiment has revealed interesting insights into the research of overreporting. First, we have tested successfully a new question wording that relies on propensity measures and might be of particular relevance in pre-electoral contexts. Second, we have shown that recent attempts to reduce overreporting (Belli et al., 2006) work in multiparty systems with high turnout as well, and third, that sequencing effects might be particularly relevant in research on reported turnout. There are some limitations to our results that have to be considered. First, we cannot validate the survey responses, but only compare them with the standard question. Second, misreporting is sensitive to survey mode (Tourangeau & Smith, 1996), and overreporting of turnout is, in particular, higher in interviewer-administered than in self-administered surveys (Stockè, 2007; Holbrook & Krosnick, 2010). Our findings, therefore, cannot necessarily be transferred to a different mode of questioning. Third, results might be sensitive to the time span in question. Finally, our results apply to the Austrian context, a German-speaking environment with high levels of turnout. Nevertheless, working on more valid questions for capturing voter turnout in countries where turnout validation is not an option is worth the effort, as our experiment has shown. Acknowledgments This research is conducted under the auspices of the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES), a National Research Network (NFN) sponsored by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) (S10903-G11) and was supported by a Grant from the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences (NIAS). The authors would also like to thank Dr Richard Költringer, Institute for Panel Research (Vienna, Austria), for generously conducting our experiment. Appendix Table A1 Self Reported Turnout Treatments A, B, and C Treatment A Treatment B Treatment C Voted 82.2% Voted 78.4% Voted (sure) 74.6% Usually vote, but 3.6% Not sure, but 2.1% this time no think I voted Thought of voting, 1.4% Not sure, but 3.5% but no think no vote Did not vote 14.3% Did not vote 14.0% Did not vote (sure) 14.8% Don t know 0.8% Don t know 0.2% Don t know 0.4% Refused 2.7% Refused 2.5% Refused 4.7% n Note. Weighted data, rounded numbers.

10 RESEARCH NOTE 233 References Abelson, R. P., Loftus, E. F., & Greenwald, A. G. (1992). Attempts to improve the accuracy of self-reports of voting. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation. Belli, R. F., Moore, S. E., & VanHoewyk, J. (2006). An experimental comparison of question forms used to reduce vote overreporting. Electoral Studies, 25, doi: /j.electstud Belli, R. F., Traugott, M. W., Young, M., & McGonagle, K. A. (1999). Reducing vote overreporting in surveys. Social desirability, memory failure, and source monitoring. Public Opinion Quarterly, 63, doi: / Bernstein, R., Chadha, A., & Montjoy, R. (2001). Overreporting voting. Why it happens and why it matters. Public Opinion Quarterly, 65, doi: / Black, T. (2009). Doing quantitative research in the social sciences. An integrated approach to research design, measurement and statistics. London, Thousand Oaks, New Dehli, Singapore: Sage. Cassel, C. A. (2003). Overreporting and electoral participation research. American Politics Research, 31, doi: / x Franklin, M. N. (2004). Voter turnout and the dynamics of electoral competition in established democracies since Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town: Cambridge University Press. Gaines, B. J., Kuklinski, J. H., & Quirk, P. J. (2007). The logic of the survey experiment reexamined. Political Analysis, 15, doi: /pan/mpl008. Greenwald, A. G., Carnot, C. G., Beach, R., & Young, B. (1987). Increasing voting behaviour by asking people if they expect to vote. Journal of Applied Psychology, 72, doi: / Gòrecki, M. (2011). Electoral salience and vote overreporting: Another look at the problem of validity in voter turnout studies. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 23, doi: /ijpor/edr023. Hill, K. Q., & Hurley, P. (1984). Nonvoters in voters clothing: The impact of voting behaviour misreporting on voting behaviour research. Social Science Quarterly, 65, Holbrook, A. L., & Krosnick, J. A. (2010). Social desirability bias in voter turnout reports. Public Opinion Quarterly, 74, doi: /poq/nfp065. Holbrook, A. L., & Krosnick, J. A. (2013). A new question sequence to measure voter turnout in telephone surveys. Results of an experiment in the 2006 ANES pilot study. Public Opinion Quarterly, 77(Special Issue), doi: /poq/ nfs061. Kaplan, S. A., Luchman, J. N., & Mock, L. (2013). General and specific question sequence effects in satisfaction surveys: Integrating directional and correlational effects. Journal of Happiness Studies, 14, doi: /s Karp, J. A., & Brockington, D. (2005). Social desirability and response validity: A comparative analysis of overreporting voter turnout in five countries. Journal of Politics, 67, doi: /j x. Presser, S. (1990). Can changes in context reduce vote overreporting in Surveys? Public Opinion Quarterly, 54, doi: /

11 234 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH Presser, S., & Traugott, M. (1992). Little white lies and social science models: Correlated response errors in a panel study of voting. Public Opinion Quarterly, 56, doi: / Saris, W. E., & Gallhofer, I. N. (2007). Design, evaluation, and analysis of questionnaires for survey research. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. Selb, P., & Munzert, S. (2013). Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys. Electoral Studies, 32, doi: / j.electstud Silver, B. D., Anderson, B. A., & Abramson, P. R. (1986). Who overreports voting? American Political Science Review, 80, Stockè, V.(2007). Response privacy and elapsed time since election day as determinants for vote overreporting. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 19, doi: /ijpor/edl031. Stockè, V., & Stark, T. (2007). Political involvement and memory failure as interdependent determinants of vote overreporting. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 21, doi: /acp Sudman, S., Bradburn, N. M., & Schwarz, N. (1996). Thinking about answers: The application of cognitive processes to survey methodology. San Francisco, CA: Jossey- Bass. Tourangeau, R., & Smith, T. W. (1996). Asking sensititve questions: The impact of data collection mode, question format, and question context. Public Opinion Quarterly, 60, doi: / Transue, J. E., Lee, D. J., & Aldrich, J. H. (2009). Treatment spillover effects across survey experiments. Political Analysis, 17, doi: /pan/mpn012. Traugott, M. W., & Katosh, J. P. (1979). Response validity in surveys of voting behavior. Public Opinion Quarterly, 43, doi: / Waismel-Manor, I., & Sarid, J. (2011). Can overreporting in surveys be reduced? Evidence from Israel s municipal elections. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 23, doi: /ijpor/edr021. Willis, G. B. (2005). Cognitive interviewing. A tool for improving questionnaire design. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Biographical Notes Eva Zeglovits is a post doctoral researcher at the Department of Methods in the Social Sciences, University of Vienna. She holds a PhD in Political Science and an MSc in Statistics and is working in the Austrian National Election Study. Her research focuses on electoral behavior, political socialization, and survey methods. Sylvia Kritzinger is Professor and Head of the Department of Methods in the Social Sciences, University of Vienna. She holds a PhD in Political Science and is one of the principal investigators of the Austrian National Election Study. Her research focuses on electoral behavior, public opinion formation, democratic representation, and empirical methods.

Reducing overreporting of voter turnout in seven European countries results from a survey experiment

Reducing overreporting of voter turnout in seven European countries results from a survey experiment Reducing overreporting of voter turnout in seven European countries results from a survey experiment Sylvia Kritzinger (University of Vienna, sylvia.kritzinger@univie.ac.at) Steve Schwarzer (TNS Opinion,

More information

Experiments to Reduce the Over-reporting of Voting: A Pipeline to the Truth. Michael J. Hanmer Antoine J. Banks University of Maryland

Experiments to Reduce the Over-reporting of Voting: A Pipeline to the Truth. Michael J. Hanmer Antoine J. Banks University of Maryland Experiments to Reduce the Over-reporting of Voting: A Pipeline to the Truth Michael J. Hanmer Antoine J. Banks University of Maryland Ismail K. White The Ohio State University Abstract Voting is a fundamental

More information

If Turnout Is So Low, Why Do So Many People Say They Vote? Michael D. Martinez

If Turnout Is So Low, Why Do So Many People Say They Vote? Michael D. Martinez If Turnout Is So Low, Why Do So Many People Say They Vote? Michael D. Martinez Department of Political Science University of Florida P.O. Box 117325 Gainesville, Florida 32611-7325 phone (352) 392-0262

More information

Social Desirability and Response Validity: A Comparative Analysis of Overreporting Voter Turnout in Five Countries

Social Desirability and Response Validity: A Comparative Analysis of Overreporting Voter Turnout in Five Countries Social Desirability and Response Validity: A Comparative Analysis of Overreporting Voter Turnout in Five Countries Jeffrey A. Karp Texas Tech University and University of Twente, The Netherlands David

More information

What Leads to Voting Overreports? Contrasts of Overreporters to Validated Voters and Admitted Nonvoters in the American National Election Studies

What Leads to Voting Overreports? Contrasts of Overreporters to Validated Voters and Admitted Nonvoters in the American National Election Studies Journal of Of cial Statistics, Vol. 17, No. 4, 2001, pp. 479±498 What Leads to Voting Overreports? Contrasts of Overreporters to Validated Voters and Admitted Nonvoters in the American National Election

More information

1. The Relationship Between Party Control, Latino CVAP and the Passage of Bills Benefitting Immigrants

1. The Relationship Between Party Control, Latino CVAP and the Passage of Bills Benefitting Immigrants The Ideological and Electoral Determinants of Laws Targeting Undocumented Migrants in the U.S. States Online Appendix In this additional methodological appendix I present some alternative model specifications

More information

An Assessment of Ranked-Choice Voting in the San Francisco 2005 Election. Final Report. July 2006

An Assessment of Ranked-Choice Voting in the San Francisco 2005 Election. Final Report. July 2006 Public Research Institute San Francisco State University 1600 Holloway Ave. San Francisco, CA 94132 Ph.415.338.2978, Fx.415.338.6099 http://pri.sfsu.edu An Assessment of Ranked-Choice Voting in the San

More information

Voting at 16? Youth suffrage is up for debate

Voting at 16? Youth suffrage is up for debate European View (2013) 12:249 254 DOI 10.1007/s12290-013-0273-3 ARTICLE Voting at 16? Youth suffrage is up for debate Eva Zeglovits Published online: 26 November 2013 Ó Centre for European Studies 2013 Abstract

More information

Learning from Small Subsamples without Cherry Picking: The Case of Non-Citizen Registration and Voting

Learning from Small Subsamples without Cherry Picking: The Case of Non-Citizen Registration and Voting Learning from Small Subsamples without Cherry Picking: The Case of Non-Citizen Registration and Voting Jesse Richman Old Dominion University jrichman@odu.edu David C. Earnest Old Dominion University, and

More information

Elections Alberta Survey of Voters and Non-Voters

Elections Alberta Survey of Voters and Non-Voters Elections Alberta Survey of Voters and Non-Voters RESEARCH REPORT July 17, 2008 460, 10055 106 St, Edmonton, Alberta T5J 2Y2 Tel: 780.423.0708 Fax: 780.425.0400 www.legermarketing.com 1 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

More information

Robert H. Prisuta, American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) 601 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C

Robert H. Prisuta, American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) 601 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C A POST-ELECTION BANDWAGON EFFECT? COMPARING NATIONAL EXIT POLL DATA WITH A GENERAL POPULATION SURVEY Robert H. Prisuta, American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) 601 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C.

More information

Report for the Associated Press: Illinois and Georgia Election Studies in November 2014

Report for the Associated Press: Illinois and Georgia Election Studies in November 2014 Report for the Associated Press: Illinois and Georgia Election Studies in November 2014 Randall K. Thomas, Frances M. Barlas, Linda McPetrie, Annie Weber, Mansour Fahimi, & Robert Benford GfK Custom Research

More information

Case Study: Get out the Vote

Case Study: Get out the Vote Case Study: Get out the Vote Do Phone Calls to Encourage Voting Work? Why Randomize? This case study is based on Comparing Experimental and Matching Methods Using a Large-Scale Field Experiment on Voter

More information

North Carolina Races Tighten as Election Day Approaches

North Carolina Races Tighten as Election Day Approaches North Carolina Races Tighten as Election Day Approaches Likely Voters in North Carolina October 23-27, 2016 Table of Contents KEY SURVEY INSIGHTS... 1 PRESIDENTIAL RACE... 1 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ISSUES...

More information

Georg Lutz, Nicolas Pekari, Marina Shkapina. CSES Module 5 pre-test report, Switzerland

Georg Lutz, Nicolas Pekari, Marina Shkapina. CSES Module 5 pre-test report, Switzerland Georg Lutz, Nicolas Pekari, Marina Shkapina CSES Module 5 pre-test report, Switzerland Lausanne, 8.31.2016 1 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Methodology 3 2 Distribution of key variables 7 2.1 Attitudes

More information

Motivations and Barriers: Exploring Voting Behaviour in British Columbia

Motivations and Barriers: Exploring Voting Behaviour in British Columbia Motivations and Barriers: Exploring Voting Behaviour in British Columbia January 2010 BC STATS Page i Revised April 21st, 2010 Executive Summary Building on the Post-Election Voter/Non-Voter Satisfaction

More information

Who influences the formation of political attitudes and decisions in young people? Evidence from the referendum on Scottish independence

Who influences the formation of political attitudes and decisions in young people? Evidence from the referendum on Scottish independence Who influences the formation of political attitudes and decisions in young people? Evidence from the referendum on Scottish independence 04.03.2014 d part - Think Tank for political participation Dr Jan

More information

RACE AND TURNOUT IN U.S. ELECTIONS EXPOSING HIDDEN EFFECTS

RACE AND TURNOUT IN U.S. ELECTIONS EXPOSING HIDDEN EFFECTS Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 74, No. 2, Summer 2010, pp. 286 318 RACE AND TURNOUT IN U.S. ELECTIONS EXPOSING HIDDEN EFFECTS BENJAMIN J. DEUFEL ORIT KEDAR* Abstract We demonstrate that the use of self-reported

More information

THE LOUISIANA SURVEY 2018

THE LOUISIANA SURVEY 2018 THE LOUISIANA SURVEY 2018 Criminal justice reforms and Medicaid expansion remain popular with Louisiana public Popular support for work requirements and copayments for Medicaid The fifth in a series of

More information

European Social Survey ESS 2004 Documentation of the sampling procedure

European Social Survey ESS 2004 Documentation of the sampling procedure European Social Survey ESS 2004 Documentation of the sampling procedure A. TARGET POPULATION The population is composed by all persons aged 15 and over resident within private households in Spain (including

More information

THE LOUISIANA SURVEY 2017

THE LOUISIANA SURVEY 2017 THE LOUISIANA SURVEY 2017 Public Approves of Medicaid Expansion, But Remains Divided on Affordable Care Act Opinion of the ACA Improves Among Democrats and Independents Since 2014 The fifth in a series

More information

THE FIELD POLL FOR ADVANCE PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.

THE FIELD POLL FOR ADVANCE PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco,

More information

Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute Poll. Dayton Jumps to Double-Digit Lead Over Emmer

Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute Poll. Dayton Jumps to Double-Digit Lead Over Emmer Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute Poll Dayton Jumps to Double-Digit Lead Over Emmer Report prepared by the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance Humphrey Institute of Public

More information

Class Bias in the U.S. Electorate,

Class Bias in the U.S. Electorate, Class Bias in the U.S. Electorate, 1972-2004 Despite numerous studies confirming the class bias of the electorate, we have only a limited number of studies of changes in class bias over the past several

More information

Issue Importance and Performance Voting. *** Soumis à Political Behavior ***

Issue Importance and Performance Voting. *** Soumis à Political Behavior *** Issue Importance and Performance Voting Patrick Fournier, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, and Neil Nevitte *** Soumis à Political Behavior *** Issue importance mediates the impact of public

More information

Children's Referendum Poll

Children's Referendum Poll Children's Referendum Poll 18 th Oct 2012 Prepared for the National Youth Council of Ireland Job No: 52012 (1) Methodology and Weighting 1003 interviews were conducted between the 15 th 17 th October among

More information

Comparison of the Psychometric Properties of Several Computer-Based Test Designs for. Credentialing Exams

Comparison of the Psychometric Properties of Several Computer-Based Test Designs for. Credentialing Exams CBT DESIGNS FOR CREDENTIALING 1 Running head: CBT DESIGNS FOR CREDENTIALING Comparison of the Psychometric Properties of Several Computer-Based Test Designs for Credentialing Exams Michael Jodoin, April

More information

PENNSYLVANIA: DEM GAINS IN CD18 SPECIAL

PENNSYLVANIA: DEM GAINS IN CD18 SPECIAL Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, 12, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

Voter Turnout Overreports: Measurement, Modeling and Deception

Voter Turnout Overreports: Measurement, Modeling and Deception University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Doctoral Dissertations May 2014 - current Dissertations and Theses 2017 Voter Turnout Overreports: Measurement, Modeling and Deception Ivelisse

More information

Voter ID Pilot 2018 Public Opinion Survey Research. Prepared on behalf of: Bridget Williams, Alexandra Bogdan GfK Social and Strategic Research

Voter ID Pilot 2018 Public Opinion Survey Research. Prepared on behalf of: Bridget Williams, Alexandra Bogdan GfK Social and Strategic Research Voter ID Pilot 2018 Public Opinion Survey Research Prepared on behalf of: Prepared by: Issue: Bridget Williams, Alexandra Bogdan GfK Social and Strategic Research Final Date: 08 August 2018 Contents 1

More information

These are the findings from the latest statewide Field Poll completed among 1,003 registered voters in early January.

These are the findings from the latest statewide Field Poll completed among 1,003 registered voters in early January. THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

The National Citizen Survey

The National Citizen Survey CITY OF SARASOTA, FLORIDA 2008 3005 30th Street 777 North Capitol Street NE, Suite 500 Boulder, CO 80301 Washington, DC 20002 ww.n-r-c.com 303-444-7863 www.icma.org 202-289-ICMA P U B L I C S A F E T Y

More information

PENNSYLVANIA: SMALL LEAD FOR SACCONE IN CD18

PENNSYLVANIA: SMALL LEAD FOR SACCONE IN CD18 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, 15, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

Author(s) Title Date Dataset(s) Abstract

Author(s) Title Date Dataset(s) Abstract Author(s): Traugott, Michael Title: Memo to Pilot Study Committee: Understanding Campaign Effects on Candidate Recall and Recognition Date: February 22, 1990 Dataset(s): 1988 National Election Study, 1989

More information

Voter turnout in today's California presidential primary election will likely set a record for the lowest ever recorded in the modern era.

Voter turnout in today's California presidential primary election will likely set a record for the lowest ever recorded in the modern era. THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco,

More information

This report is formatted for double-sided printing.

This report is formatted for double-sided printing. Public Opinion Survey on the November 9, 2009 By-elections FINAL REPORT Prepared for Elections Canada February 2010 Phoenix SPI is a Gold Seal Certified Corporate Member of the MRIA 1678 Bank Street, Suite

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

POLL: CLINTON MAINTAINS BIG LEAD OVER TRUMP IN BAY STATE. As early voting nears, Democrat holds 32-point advantage in presidential race

POLL: CLINTON MAINTAINS BIG LEAD OVER TRUMP IN BAY STATE. As early voting nears, Democrat holds 32-point advantage in presidential race DATE: Oct. 6, FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, CONTACT: Brian Zelasko at 413-796-2261 (office) or 413 297-8237 (cell) David Stawasz at 413-796-2026 (office) or 413-214-8001 (cell) POLL: CLINTON MAINTAINS BIG LEAD

More information

Public Attitudes Survey Bulletin

Public Attitudes Survey Bulletin An Garda Síochána Public Attitudes Survey Bulletin 2017 Research conducted by This bulletin presents key findings from the first quarter of the Public Attitudes Survey conducted between January and March

More information

Job approval in North Carolina N=770 / +/-3.53%

Job approval in North Carolina N=770 / +/-3.53% Elon University Poll of North Carolina residents April 5-9, 2013 Executive Summary and Demographic Crosstabs McCrory Obama Hagan Burr General Assembly Congress Job approval in North Carolina N=770 / +/-3.53%

More information

NH Statewide Horserace Poll

NH Statewide Horserace Poll NH Statewide Horserace Poll NH Survey of Likely Voters October 26-28, 2016 N=408 Trump Leads Clinton in Final Stretch; New Hampshire U.S. Senate Race - Ayotte 49.1, Hassan 47 With just over a week to go

More information

PENNSYLVANIA: UNCERTAIN DEM EDGE IN CD07

PENNSYLVANIA: UNCERTAIN DEM EDGE IN CD07 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, September 13, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

The Cook Political Report / LSU Manship School Midterm Election Poll

The Cook Political Report / LSU Manship School Midterm Election Poll The Cook Political Report / LSU Manship School Midterm Election Poll The Cook Political Report-LSU Manship School poll, a national survey with an oversample of voters in the most competitive U.S. House

More information

November 15-18, 2013 Open Government Survey

November 15-18, 2013 Open Government Survey November 15-18, 2013 Open Government Survey 1 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 3 TOPLINE... 6 DEMOGRAPHICS... 14 CROSS-TABULATIONS... 15 Trust: Federal Government... 15 Trust: State Government...

More information

Sampling and Non Response Biases in Election Surveys : The Case of the 1998 Quebec Election

Sampling and Non Response Biases in Election Surveys : The Case of the 1998 Quebec Election Sampling and Non Response Biases in Election Surveys : The Case of the 1998 Quebec Election Presented at the International Conference on Survey Non response, held in Portland, Oregon, October 27-30 1999

More information

NATIONAL: RACE RELATIONS WORSEN

NATIONAL: RACE RELATIONS WORSEN Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, 19, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

2018 Florida General Election Poll

2018 Florida General Election Poll Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research 2018 Florida General Election Poll For media or other inquiries: Zachary Baumann, Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Political Science Director,

More information

CALIFORNIA: INDICTED INCUMBENT LEADS IN CD50

CALIFORNIA: INDICTED INCUMBENT LEADS IN CD50 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, September 27, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

Americans and Germans are worlds apart in views of their countries relationship By Jacob Poushter and Alexandra Castillo

Americans and Germans are worlds apart in views of their countries relationship By Jacob Poushter and Alexandra Castillo EMBARGOED COPY NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OR PUBLICATION UNTIL 17:00 WASHINGTON DC TIME 22:00 LONDON TIME 23:00 BERLIN TIME MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2018 1 Americans and Germans are worlds apart in views of their

More information

NATIONAL: CLINTON LEAD SHRINKS While non-candidate Biden makes gains

NATIONAL: CLINTON LEAD SHRINKS While non-candidate Biden makes gains Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, 8, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

Public Attitudes Survey Bulletin

Public Attitudes Survey Bulletin An Garda Síochána Public Attitudes Survey Bulletin 218 Research conducted by This bulletin presents high level findings from the second quarter of the Public Attitudes Survey conducted between April and

More information

Report for the Associated Press. November 2015 Election Studies in Kentucky and Mississippi. Randall K. Thomas, Frances M. Barlas, Linda McPetrie,

Report for the Associated Press. November 2015 Election Studies in Kentucky and Mississippi. Randall K. Thomas, Frances M. Barlas, Linda McPetrie, Report for the Associated Press November 2015 Election Studies in Kentucky and Mississippi Randall K. Thomas, Frances M. Barlas, Linda McPetrie, Annie Weber, Mansour Fahimi, & Robert Benford GfK Custom

More information

MEREDITH COLLEGE POLL September 18-22, 2016

MEREDITH COLLEGE POLL September 18-22, 2016 Women in politics and law enforcement With approximately three weeks until Election Day and the possibility that Democrat Hillary Clinton will be elected as the first woman president in our nation s history,

More information

PRRI/The Atlantic 2016 Post- election White Working Class Survey Total = 1,162 (540 Landline, 622 Cell phone) November 9 20, 2016

PRRI/The Atlantic 2016 Post- election White Working Class Survey Total = 1,162 (540 Landline, 622 Cell phone) November 9 20, 2016 December 1, PRRI/The Atlantic Post- election White Working Class Survey Total = 1,162 (540 Landline, 622 Cell phone) November 9 20, Thinking about the presidential election this year Q.1 A lot of people

More information

NEW YORK: VOTERS DIVIDED IN CD19

NEW YORK: VOTERS DIVIDED IN CD19 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Wednesday, September 12, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

Elizabeth M. Grieco, Patricia de la Cruz, Rachel Cortes, and Luke Larsen Immigration Statistics Staff, Population Division U.S.

Elizabeth M. Grieco, Patricia de la Cruz, Rachel Cortes, and Luke Larsen Immigration Statistics Staff, Population Division U.S. Who in the United States Sends and Receives Remittances? An Initial Analysis of the Monetary Transfers Data from the August 2008 CPS Migration Supplement 1 Elizabeth M. Grieco, Patricia de la Cruz, Rachel

More information

AN OVERVIEW OF THE CAMPAIGN AND A REASONED GUESS

AN OVERVIEW OF THE CAMPAIGN AND A REASONED GUESS www.ekospolitics.ca AN OVERVIEW OF THE CAMPAIGN AND A REASONED GUESS AT THE OUTCOME WYNNE LIKELY HEADED FOR MAJORITY [Ottawa June 11, 2014] Wynne has recaptured what was a highly stable, modest lead (37.3

More information

2016 Nova Scotia Culture Index

2016 Nova Scotia Culture Index 2016 Nova Scotia Culture Index Final Report Prepared for: Communications Nova Scotia and Department of Communities, Culture and Heritage March 2016 www.cra.ca 1-888-414-1336 Table of Contents Page Introduction...

More information

THE PUBLIC AND THE CRITICAL ISSUES BEFORE CONGRESS IN THE SUMMER AND FALL OF 2017

THE PUBLIC AND THE CRITICAL ISSUES BEFORE CONGRESS IN THE SUMMER AND FALL OF 2017 THE PUBLIC AND THE CRITICAL ISSUES BEFORE CONGRESS IN THE SUMMER AND FALL OF 2017 July 2017 1 INTRODUCTION At the time this poll s results are being released, the Congress is engaged in a number of debates

More information

The role of Social Cultural and Political Factors in explaining Perceived Responsiveness of Representatives in Local Government.

The role of Social Cultural and Political Factors in explaining Perceived Responsiveness of Representatives in Local Government. The role of Social Cultural and Political Factors in explaining Perceived Responsiveness of Representatives in Local Government. Master Onderzoek 2012-2013 Family Name: Jelluma Given Name: Rinse Cornelis

More information

ALABAMA: TURNOUT BIG QUESTION IN SENATE RACE

ALABAMA: TURNOUT BIG QUESTION IN SENATE RACE Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, 11, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

Release #2475 Release Date: Wednesday, July 2, 2014 WHILE CALIFORNIANS ARE DISSATISFIED

Release #2475 Release Date: Wednesday, July 2, 2014 WHILE CALIFORNIANS ARE DISSATISFIED THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

DU PhD in Home Science

DU PhD in Home Science DU PhD in Home Science Topic:- DU_J18_PHD_HS 1) Electronic journal usually have the following features: i. HTML/ PDF formats ii. Part of bibliographic databases iii. Can be accessed by payment only iv.

More information

I AIMS AND BACKGROUND

I AIMS AND BACKGROUND The Economic and Social Review, pp xxx xxx To Weight or Not To Weight? A Statistical Analysis of How Weights Affect the Reliability of the Quarterly National Household Survey for Immigration Research in

More information

Telephone Survey. Contents *

Telephone Survey. Contents * Telephone Survey Contents * Tables... 2 Figures... 2 Introduction... 4 Survey Questionnaire... 4 Sampling Methods... 5 Study Population... 5 Sample Size... 6 Survey Procedures... 6 Data Analysis Method...

More information

Working Paper Series. Estimation of Voter Turnout by Age Group and Gender at the 2011 Federal General Election

Working Paper Series. Estimation of Voter Turnout by Age Group and Gender at the 2011 Federal General Election Working Paper Series Estimation of Voter Turnout by Age Group and Gender at the 2011 Federal General Election April 2012 Table of Contents Summary... 3 Acknowledgements... 4 Introduction... 4 National

More information

MODEST LISTING IN WYNNE S SHIP SEEMS TO HAVE CORRECTED ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY SEEMS CHARTED FOR WIN

MODEST LISTING IN WYNNE S SHIP SEEMS TO HAVE CORRECTED ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY SEEMS CHARTED FOR WIN www.ekospolitics.ca MODEST LISTING IN WYNNE S SHIP SEEMS TO HAVE CORRECTED ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY SEEMS CHARTED FOR WIN [Ottawa June 5, 2014] There is still a week to go in the campaign and the dynamics

More information

PENNSYLVANIA: SMALL GOP LEAD IN CD01

PENNSYLVANIA: SMALL GOP LEAD IN CD01 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Wednesday, October 3, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

An analysis and presentation of the APIAVote & Asian Americans Advancing Justice AAJC 2014 Voter Survey

An analysis and presentation of the APIAVote & Asian Americans Advancing Justice AAJC 2014 Voter Survey ASIAN AMERICANS TURN OUT FOR WHAT? SPOTLIGHT ON YOUTH VOTERS IN 2014 An analysis and presentation of the APIAVote & Asian Americans Advancing Justice AAJC 2014 Voter Survey Survey research and analysis

More information

NEW JERSEY: TIGHT RACE IN CD03

NEW JERSEY: TIGHT RACE IN CD03 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, August 14, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

Happiness and economic freedom: Are they related?

Happiness and economic freedom: Are they related? Happiness and economic freedom: Are they related? Ilkay Yilmaz 1,a, and Mehmet Nasih Tag 2 1 Mersin University, Department of Economics, Mersin University, 33342 Mersin, Turkey 2 Mersin University, Department

More information

Field Methods. Exit and Entrance Polling: A Comparison of Election Survey Methods. Casey A. Klofstad and Benjamin G.

Field Methods.  Exit and Entrance Polling: A Comparison of Election Survey Methods. Casey A. Klofstad and Benjamin G. Field Methods http://fmx.sagepub.com/ Exit and Entrance Polling: A Comparison of Election Survey Methods Casey A. Klofstad and Benjamin G. Bishin Field Methods published online 31 August 2012 DOI: 10.1177/1525822X12449711

More information

Political Integration of Immigrants: Insights from Comparing to Stayers, Not Only to Natives. David Bartram

Political Integration of Immigrants: Insights from Comparing to Stayers, Not Only to Natives. David Bartram Political Integration of Immigrants: Insights from Comparing to Stayers, Not Only to Natives David Bartram Department of Sociology University of Leicester University Road Leicester LE1 7RH United Kingdom

More information

Modeling Political Information Transmission as a Game of Telephone

Modeling Political Information Transmission as a Game of Telephone Modeling Political Information Transmission as a Game of Telephone Taylor N. Carlson tncarlson@ucsd.edu Department of Political Science University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA

More information

The Hellenic Panel Study, EES 2014 Ioannis Andreadis

The Hellenic Panel Study, EES 2014 Ioannis Andreadis The Hellenic Panel Study, EES 2014 Ioannis Andreadis The Hellenic Online Panel, European Election Study, 2014 was conducted as a web survey on a non-probability sample. Participants in Hellenic Online

More information

Analysis of Voters Opinions on Abortion in Women s Lives: Exploring Links to Equal Opportunity and Financial Stability

Analysis of Voters Opinions on Abortion in Women s Lives: Exploring Links to Equal Opportunity and Financial Stability Analysis of Voters Opinions on Abortion in Women s Lives: Exploring Links to Equal Opportunity and Financial Stability To: Interested Parties From: PerryUndem Research/Communication Date: October 15, 2014

More information

Turnout and Strength of Habits

Turnout and Strength of Habits Turnout and Strength of Habits John H. Aldrich Wendy Wood Jacob M. Montgomery Duke University I) Introduction Social scientists are much better at explaining for whom people vote than whether people vote

More information

14.11: Experiments in Political Science

14.11: Experiments in Political Science 14.11: Experiments in Political Science Prof. Esther Duflo May 9, 2006 Voting is a paradoxical behavior: the chance of being the pivotal voter in an election is close to zero, and yet people do vote...

More information

Goucher Poll Releases First Round of Inaugural Results Marylanders Share Perceptions of Same-Sex Marriage, Immigration, and Expanded Gambling

Goucher Poll Releases First Round of Inaugural Results Marylanders Share Perceptions of Same-Sex Marriage, Immigration, and Expanded Gambling Press Contact Information Dr. Mileah Kromer Director, Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center mileah.kromer@goucher.edu Cell: 724-840-0990 Kristen Pinheiro Director, Media Relations kristen.pinheiro@goucher.edu

More information

The Essential Report. 1 July 2016 ESSENTIALMEDIA.COM.AU

The Essential Report. 1 July 2016 ESSENTIALMEDIA.COM.AU The Essential Report 1 July 2016 ESSENTIALMEDIA.COM.AU The Essential Report Date: 1/7/2016 Prepared By: Essential Research Data Supplied: Essential Media Communications is a member of the Association of

More information

NEW JERSEY: DEM HAS SLIGHT EDGE IN CD11

NEW JERSEY: DEM HAS SLIGHT EDGE IN CD11 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Wednesday, 27, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

The Essential Report. 25 April 2017 ESSENTIALMEDIA.COM.AU

The Essential Report. 25 April 2017 ESSENTIALMEDIA.COM.AU The Essential Report 25 April 2017 ESSENTIALMEDIA.COM.AU The Essential Report Date: 25/4/2017 Prepared By: Essential Research Data Supplied by: Essential Media Communications is a member of the Association

More information

A positive correlation between turnout and plurality does not refute the rational voter model

A positive correlation between turnout and plurality does not refute the rational voter model Quality & Quantity 26: 85-93, 1992. 85 O 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. Note A positive correlation between turnout and plurality does not refute the rational voter model

More information

Public Attitudes Survey Bulletin

Public Attitudes Survey Bulletin An Garda Síochána Public Attitudes Survey Bulletin 218 Research conducted by This bulletin presents high level findings from the third quarter of the Public Attitudes Survey conducted between July and

More information

THE TRUE ELECTORATE A CROSS-VALIDATION OF VOTER REGISTRATION FILES AND ELECTION SURVEY DEMOGRAPHICS

THE TRUE ELECTORATE A CROSS-VALIDATION OF VOTER REGISTRATION FILES AND ELECTION SURVEY DEMOGRAPHICS Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 71, No. 4, Winter 2007, pp. 588 602 THE TRUE ELECTORATE A CROSS-VALIDATION OF VOTER REGISTRATION FILES AND ELECTION SURVEY DEMOGRAPHICS MICHAEL P. MCDONALD Abstract I cross-validate

More information

Data Models. 1. Data REGISTRATION STATUS VOTING HISTORY

Data Models. 1. Data REGISTRATION STATUS VOTING HISTORY Cambridge Analytica offers a range of enhanced audience segments drawn from our national database of over 220 million Americans. These segments can be used individually or together to power highly targeted

More information

Voter and non-voter survey report

Voter and non-voter survey report Voter and non-voter survey report Proposal prepared for: Colmar Brunton contact The Electoral Commission Ian Binnie Date: 27 February 2012 Level 1, 6-10 The Strand PO Box 33690 Takapuna 0740 Auckland.

More information

Electoral forecasting with Stata

Electoral forecasting with Stata Electoral forecasting with Stata Four years later Modesto Escobar & Pablo Cabrera University of Salamanca (Spain) 2016 Spanish Stata Users Group meeting Barcelona, 20th October, 2016 1 / 18 Introduction

More information

NEW JERSEY: MENENDEZ LEADS HUGIN FOR SENATE

NEW JERSEY: MENENDEZ LEADS HUGIN FOR SENATE Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, October 18, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

Results Embargoed Until Wednesday, February 24 at 12:01AM. Clinton Continues to Lead in Maryland; Edwards and Van Hollen in Dead Heat

Results Embargoed Until Wednesday, February 24 at 12:01AM. Clinton Continues to Lead in Maryland; Edwards and Van Hollen in Dead Heat Results Embargoed Until Wednesday, February 24 at 12:01AM Press Contact Information Mileah Kromer Director, Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center mileah.kromer@goucher.edu Chris Landers chris.landers@goucher.edu

More information

NEW JERSEY: DEM MAINTAINS EDGE IN CD11

NEW JERSEY: DEM MAINTAINS EDGE IN CD11 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, October 9, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

Flash Eurobarometer 364 ELECTORAL RIGHTS REPORT

Flash Eurobarometer 364 ELECTORAL RIGHTS REPORT Flash Eurobarometer ELECTORAL RIGHTS REPORT Fieldwork: November 2012 Publication: March 2013 This survey has been requested by the European Commission, Directorate-General Justice and co-ordinated by Directorate-General

More information

oductivity Estimates for Alien and Domestic Strawberry Workers and the Number of Farm Workers Required to Harvest the 1988 Strawberry Crop

oductivity Estimates for Alien and Domestic Strawberry Workers and the Number of Farm Workers Required to Harvest the 1988 Strawberry Crop oductivity Estimates for Alien and Domestic Strawberry Workers and the Number of Farm Workers Required to Harvest the 1988 Strawberry Crop Special Report 828 April 1988 UPI! Agricultural Experiment Station

More information

Flash Eurobarometer 429. Summary. The euro area

Flash Eurobarometer 429. Summary. The euro area LOGO CE_Vertical_EN_NEG_quadri rouge Summary Survey requested by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and co-ordinated by the Directorate-General for Communication

More information

Gender, age and migration in official statistics The availability and the explanatory power of official data on older BME women

Gender, age and migration in official statistics The availability and the explanatory power of official data on older BME women Age+ Conference 22-23 September 2005 Amsterdam Workshop 4: Knowledge and knowledge gaps: The AGE perspective in research and statistics Paper by Mone Spindler: Gender, age and migration in official statistics

More information

THE FIELD POLL. UCB Contact

THE FIELD POLL. UCB Contact Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900, San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 415.392.5763 FAX: 415.434.2541 field.com/fieldpollonline THE FIELD POLL UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY BERKELEY

More information

Multi-Mode Political Surveys

Multi-Mode Political Surveys Multi-Mode Political Surveys Submitted to AAPOR Annual Conference By Jackie Redman, Scottie Thompson, Berwood Yost, and Katherine Everts Center for Opinion Research May 2017 2 Multi-Mode Political Surveys

More information

PENNSYLVANIA: CD01 INCUMBENT POPULAR, BUT RACE IS CLOSE

PENNSYLVANIA: CD01 INCUMBENT POPULAR, BUT RACE IS CLOSE Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, 4, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

1. A Republican edge in terms of self-described interest in the election. 2. Lower levels of self-described interest among younger and Latino

1. A Republican edge in terms of self-described interest in the election. 2. Lower levels of self-described interest among younger and Latino 2 Academics use political polling as a measure about the viability of survey research can it accurately predict the result of a national election? The answer continues to be yes. There is compelling evidence

More information

The Essential Report. 16 December MELBOURNE SYDNEY BRUSSELS

The Essential Report. 16 December MELBOURNE SYDNEY BRUSSELS The Essential Report 16 December 2014 MELBOURNE SYDNEY BRUSSELS www.essentialresearch.com.au The Essential Report Date: 16 December 2014 Prepared by: Essential Research Data supplied: Essential Media Communications

More information