Kenya and the August 2017 Elections

Transcription

1 Kenya and the August 2017 Elections The Role of Professionals 5 July 2017

2 Introduction Political Economy of Kenya Key features challenges to accountability Key electoral issues in 2017 Implications for professional groups Conclusions

3 Features of Kenya s PEA There are a number of long-standing issues in Kenya; drivers of violence and narratives of hate Regional imbalances in development and inequalities Impunity and lack of accountability Use of political patronage (lack of transparency in decision making) Ethnicisation of politics 5 Groups comprise over 65% of the population Use of majoritarian electoral system reinforcing use of numbers Exclusion and marginalisation of groups

4 Effect of political economy Cycles of electoral violence every election year 1992/97/2007 Post-2007/8 violence was an important marker in this respect Violence changed the narrative about stability of Kenya Impacts economic growth

5 GDP Growth Rate (%)

6 What has the 2010 Constitution changed? It is radical and progressive Meant to mark a new beginning and address the long standing issues introduces devolution of power and resources to address imbalances Reduces powers of the executive by altering the structure of government and governance Builds institutions of restraint (OAG, EACC, Ombudsperson/KNCHR etc) Strengthens principles of Separation of Powers

7 The constitution There are new challenges There are no champions for the constitutionalism (self interests drive interpretation in many ways) Devolution has changed social development but has not transformed governance Increase in power struggles New politics of ethnicity, clans, sub-clans, regions

8 What is undermining new order? Patronage and ethnicity Old order uses the patronage networks to promote self political interests Ethnic informal influence remains central in making policy choices and decisions Vested and ethnic interests are prevalent Increase in corruption and high level of impunity (limited adherence to the rule of law) Limited regard for public choices if those choices do not advance self interests

9 Undermining new order 2 Weak political institutions Though largely stable, the political system is undermined by bargains and counter bargains among the elites Power distributed on ethnic basis Concentrated among two ethnic groups thereby excluding other groups The system becomes shaky when the elites do not keep to the agreements The bargains determined by opportunities for accessing public resources

10 Towards August 2017 Economic growth is steady but Inflation and cost of living are high Fruits of growth unevenly distributed Regional disparities in development much in place Disparities reinforcing ethnic divisions Ethnicity remains central to political organisation First Past the Post system not radically altered in spite of 50%+1 provision Major parties are ethnic and fragile Parliament is weak in terms forcing accountability (weak parties lead to a weak parliament)

11 80% Confidence /satisfied with the performance in the Judiciary 70% 74% 75% 75% 73% 60% 64% 62% 50% 54% 58% 51% 56% 54% 40% 38% 36% 30% 31% 28% 20% 10% 0% Dec 08 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 Nov 10 Sept 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Jun 13 Nov 13 Aug 14 Apr 15 Jul 15 Apr 16 Jan 17

12 % Confidence in Judiciary - April 2015 By Region The Supreme Court Other Courts Chief Justice Willy Mutunga Western 55% 49% 55% Rift Valley 68% 54% 62% Nyanza 43% 38% 35% North Eastern 89% 68% 88% Nairobi 64% 55% 60% Eastern 81% 66% 77% Coast 71% 59% 47% Central 71% 53% 67% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

13 100% Level of confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) 90% 93% 80% 70% 77% 80% 79% 60% 65% 50% 53% 50% 51% 48% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% December 2011 April 2012 September 2012 December 2012 August 2014 July 2015 November 2015 April 2016 January 2017

14 Confidence in IEBC Nati onal Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Western A LOT OF CONFIDENCE 31% 58% 17% 32% 22% 21% 9% 44% 16% SOME CONFIDENCE 34% 27% 34% 35% 35% 67% 34% 31% 33% ONLY A LITTLE CONFIDENCE 11% 5% 13% 12% 14% 5% 20% 7% 14% NO CONFIDENCE AT ALL 19% 6% 27% 16% 26% 1% 33% 14% 26% DK 4% 4% 6% 4% 3% 6% 3% 3% 11% NR/RTA 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

15 100% Level of confidence in the Judiciary and IEBC 90% 93% 80% 70% 60% 77% 65% 80% 67% 78% 79% 76% 58% 56% 54% IEBC 62% 65% Judiciary 50% 53% 50% 48% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% December 2011 April 2012 September 2012 December 2012 August 2014 July 2015 April 2016 January 2017

16 What it implies for August Hatutaki! People failing to accept the results Ethnic form of voting We have won; mto-do? Chest thumping Let us move on! Kazi iendelee? Build a nation?

17 Implications for professionals Professional groups are part of the broader context Voice in politics considerably weakened Groups highly ethnicised/divided along ethnic lines No linear relationship with political groups Negligible contribution to development of manifestoes Perceived as captured by political elites/politics (no mechanism for insulation from politics)

18 Making a contribution? Difficult choices Civic education at a time of election is difficult Ordinary people make their mind on basis of real issues because they want public good Middle class groups professional groups - make choices on basis of self interest and incentives Change is threatening; status quo is selectively utilised to advance interests Options Improve on implementation of regulations Promote enforcement of the law to end impunity Develop internal coherence on adherence to the law

19 Conclusion Kenya has potential to change; it demonstrates resilience Change is difficult to sustain because of ethnicity Middle class is afraid of change The ordinary person is issue driven and wants change for the better Professional groups can help in enforcement of laws and regulations They are captured by politics, ethnicity and elites Change can take place when there are strong incentives for political elites