The Human Security Index History, Creation, and Use David Hastings.

Transcription

1 The Human Security Index History, Creation, and Use David Hastings

2 Table of Contents Origins characterizing development Indicators as tools for strategizing. Old tools almost completely economic. A newer indicator: The Human Development Index (but 20 years old). Problems with the HDI. Opportunities to do better. Introducing: The Human Security Index Global USA For any country using publicly accessible data Using/improving the HSI What opportunities are there?

3 How to we track progress, and situations? (The old stuff that we still use) Economic Growth, market indices, prices, etc. What does this represent? Who is this for? (Catherine Mulbrandon- from 2000 census when things were better.

4 Newer stuff not just about money UNDP Human Development Report human development = money, education, health, etc. But data were limited. So: GDP per capita (adjusted for purchase prices in each country): Current global range ~ $200 - $122,000 (USA counties ~$19,000 - ~$110,000) Education : literacy rate (Global national ~20% - ~100%) (USA counties ~35-96%) A long and healthy life : Life expectancy (Global ~37 83 yrs)(usa ~57-91 yrs) Example: USA $45000 GDP PC PPP 78 yrs LE 96% Lit HDI.953 Similar: Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Spain, New Zealand Highest: Luxembourg (.995), Norway, Switzerland, Japan, Australia Lowest: Somalia, Liberia, Afghanistan, Niger, Sierra Leone (.318) The USA ranks 11 th in GDP per capita (Singapore and Andorra are peers). Leichtenstein = $122K ~50 th in life expectancy (Bosnia & Cuba are peers). Japan=82y Difficult to rank leaders in literacy. So many countries have high literacy. 4 th in UNDP HDI for 2008, #13 in the better UNDP HDI for 2007, 31 st in (DAH-ESCAP) HDI for 2009

5 Human Development Index A valuable tool but ready for an improvement/replacement? The HDI is used extensively How did we do this year? annual reporting National Human Development Reports, with statistics, for many developing countries (including The HDI has received many positive comments Thus => richness is not only money Countries with low income but good Lit. or LE get better attention. But the HDI has received some concerns Only 169 countries are covered by UNDP (down from recently). UN ESCAP WP/09/02 HDI had 230+ countries for more global completeness. The HDI has not really been stable. (Numerous criticisms of the 2010 HDR ) Can we now do better, in the original spirit of the HDI?

6 Human Security: Background UNDP 1994 HDR: Human Security as a concept. Freedom from want (income, basic social services [education, health, peace], value [fairness to all peoples]) Freedom from fear [people-centric vs. personality-centric services] Beyond material issues dignity and self-worth, inclusiveness, social harmony & balance. The UNDP proposed that the UN monitor the H.S. situation in the world. Unfortunately, some may see this as an institution trying to create a mandate for itself. Comment should there be a single point of failure in such process? Or should the UN & other stakeholders share (and even compete against each other in) such process to help and hold accountable all such efforts? Surin Pitsuwan (ASEAN S.-G.) has noted that HS is an old concept from Locke, Rousseau, etc. and that, indeed, HS is the reason for the State in the first place. (

7 Human Security: Definition (refined) New definition: The attainment of physical, mental, and spiritual peace/security of individuals and communities at home and in the world in balanced local/global context. Global-Local Context: Local traditions good, unless against harmonized concerns - e.g. ritual mutilation. Individual-Society Balance: Individuals (e.g. me )?, social institutions?, shareholder equity?, national security? No losers. Economic, environmental, social priorities? No losers. Free of Regional-Political Bias: North-South-East-West? The Asian vs. the American way? Only in team sports. Global Direct/Proxy Measurements: How to best make a comprehensive, but understandable, characterization? Comparability Between Communities: International comparisons between countries, and internal comparisons between communities currently use different data. Thus, comparing Teton County (Wyoming) with Lawra District (Ghana) is difficult to do intelligently.

8 Creating a Human Security Index Some have said that an HSI cannot be developed. We cannot agree on a meaning. Data are lacking. A UNDP HSI has not been published. But what if we tried? Interesting and valuable data/indicators are available on several topics. If we try, maybe it would be like an early airplane eventually we might make something that can fly (and also make it environmentally friendly). 1 st attempted answer: global HSI V1 (2008) 2 nd attempted answer: global HSI V2 (2010) HSI USA: V (July2010) => V0.1 (Nov2010) => V0.5 (Mar2011) => V1.0 ( ?) HSI for a developing country postive initial test results.

9 Human Security (Index): 3 dimensions Economic: People have personally and nationally adequate, reliable, and stable financial resources. Environmental: The environment is sustainable. Social: Our social fabric is good. People are safe and reasonably comfortable. => John Elkington s triple-bottom line of corporate social responsibility : Economic, Environmental, & Social.

10 Human Security Index: F.A.Q Compare the HSI to quality of life & well-being indexes. Conceptually these are somewhat similar. Typical quality of life indexes tend to focus on the middle class & above. The HSI focuses on all people (e.g. > twice as many people). Why should anyone do this? To foster an awareness, strategic and decision-support tool. Can we design better public services when we can see who s doing well (or not well)? Can we respond in better context? Can we avoid social Katrinas? That s the purpose of the Human Security Index: helping to show situations of all people for analysts, policy-makers and decisionmakers.

11 Global HSI (V2) Consumer advisory fine print: As we know, the only guarantee on source data for such indicators is that they are imperfect. There are additional cautions, such as that they may have an intentional or unwitting political, socio-econimic, or even high-school-debate-team/law-school-training-ingrained bias. The signal enhancement process used in indicator formulation attempts to trivialize such biases. We believe this process to be somewhat successful. Nevertheless, the HSI is a work-in-progress, suggesting that a globally aware and sensitive interpreter, as free as possible from thinking in the box of any single nation or UN bloc (e.g. JUSCANZ or G77) may benefit most from the HSI.

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13 Let s take a world tour

14 <= Income (GDP per capita at PPP)(IMF, World Bank, CIA, UNDP) <= Income equality (Gini Coefficient of income inequality) (UN Wider/WIID, SWIID, CIA, others)

15 <= Economic-Financial Governance (debt, current account, foreign exchange reserves, personal health care disaster risk)(world Bank, IMF, others) <= Economic Fabric Index = EconFI = AVERAGE(income, equality, Econ Governance)

16 <= Environmental Vulnerability Index (SOPAC-UNEP) <= Environmental Performance Index (Yale- Colombia/CIESIN)

17 <= Greenhouse Gas Emissions per capita (WRI-Wikipedia) <= CO2 emissions per km2 (CO2 data from CDIAC / UN Stats)

18 <= CO2 Emissions per capita and area ((CO2)/(pop*km2)) (CO2 emissions from CDIAC / UN Stats) <= Population change estimates (Census.gov & UN Population Division)

19 <= EconFI <= Environmental Fabric Index = EnvFI = AVERAGE(EVI, EPI, GHG, Pop)

20 <= Food Security (FAO, World Bank, IFPRI, USDA, etc. for source data) <= Diversity (Gender +?) (WEF)

21 <= Governance (stability, corruption) World Bank, WEF <= Health (life expectancy, access to sanitation, equality of access to health services) WHO, World Bank, Perle & Tang

22 <= Info-Empowerment (literacy, phone & internet users, Press Freedom Index) UNESCO, ITU, RSF <= Peacefulness (Global Peace Index, World Prison Population List, Political Terror Scale) Vision of Humanity, Kings College London, PoliticalTerrorScale.org

23 <= GDP per capita PPP <= Social Fabric Index = SFI = AVERAGE(Diversity, FoodSec,Health,Info Empowerment, Governance, Peace)

24 Global Human Security Index Version 2 Economic Fabric Index Environmental Fabric Index Social Fabric Index Human Security Index

25 Conclusions Since UNDP s first HDI in 1990, many useful indicators have been developed, useful for a HSI. Global HSI V2: better framework & implementation than V1 HSI within countries are achievable. The HSI approach appears relatively robust. It is getting traction. But the need for astute interpretation has not been eliminated! Is it possible to do better? Yes, certainly Each indicator can be studied and improved Additional thinking on environmental indicators will bring good ideas

26 Thank you!