Madagascar. FAST Update 2 / August December, Salome Meyer, MA Dr. Thania Paffenholz

Transcription

1 F A S T Berne, December 2000 Madagascar FAST Update 2 / 2000 August December, 2000 Salome Meyer, MA Dr. Thania Paffenholz Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs

2

3 F A S T CONTENTS Risk Assessment Madagascar...1 Analytical Monitoring...3 Raster...3 Chronology...4 Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs

4

5 F A S T Risk Assessment Madagascar 1 There is no likelihood of major nation-wide armed conflict in the next three to six months. However, the process towards the establishment of autonomous provinces along ethnic lines may lead to the eruption of localised violence at any time. Factors re-affirming the potential for localised violence During the reporting period, there were no serious violent clashes in Madagascar. Yet, as analysed in our last report, the process towards the establishment of six autonomous provinces along ethnic lines my lead to the eruption of localised violence at any time. Of course, decentralisation in general does not bear an inherent potential for violence. In the case of Madagascar however, it is used to ethnicise political discourse and in fact serves to consolidate President Ratsiraka s grip on power. Consequently, opposition parties, which mainly draw from a regional support, fear marginalisation and a loss of influence because they see access to the state apparatus confined by provincially defined ethnic quotas. They have thus fiercely criticised the transition process. Despite this criticism, president Ratsiraka has continued with the establishment of the new provinces: On August 18, the AREMA dominated parliament passed a law introducing General Delegates of the Government as controlling agents of the central administration in the provinces. On December 3, provincial legislative elections were held, in which the future governments of the autonomous provinces were to be established. Since most opposition parties boycotted the elections, voters turnout was very low and AREMA won the majority of seats. 2 These developments have the following implications regarding the likelihood of violent conflict: Structurally, the autonomous provinces along ethnic lines establish a framework that can be instrumentalised as a focal point to justify the recourse to violence. For 1 The following assessment is based on the analysis of events and developments during the past three months along the FAST Analytical Momitoring Raster for Madagascar. 2 Official statistics, see: Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 1

6 instance it allows strongmen within dominant ethnic groups of a province to pinpoint minorities as scapegoats. The AREMA dominated provincial legislatives will be badly legitimised (due to the low voters turnout) and thus very week. This allows dominant ethnic groups to blame either the legislative or alternatively ethnic minorities (scapegoats) for problems (of whatever nature) that may arise in provinces and to revert to violence to push their causes. In return, victimized minority groups may challenge the provincial legislative for its failure to grant protection. Anticipating such a scenario, President Ratsiraka made it clear that he would not tolerate such challenges. His statement of September 25, that his regime was one of discipline rather than of democracy indicates that he would retain to violence if he deemed it necessary to keep power in the provinces. Finally, there is a viable possibility that existing inter-arema disputes will translate into inter-provincial rivalries: The AREMA inner circle around President Ratsiraka managed to tighten its grip on power in the newly elected provincial legislatives by porting family members as candidates. 3 The young AREMA elite, which is more and more overtly contesting the party s inner circle, may first challenge Ratsiraka s familybased power network in the provinces rather than challenging Ratsiraka directly. In this context, AREMA Minister Herivelona Ramanatsoa has already threatened that traitors within the ranks of AREMA would face serious penalties if they don t comply with the leaders. 3 For instance, Prime Minister Andrianarivo s aunt stood in Ambositra, while the wife of the Minster of Agriculture won a seat in Ambohimasoa. 2 Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs

7 I N T E R V E N I N G F A C T O R S Analytical Monitoring Raster PROXIMATE CAUSES DECREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONFLICT ROOT CAUSES Historic History of manipulated identity along different lines - Regional (Highland Côtiers) - Ethnic (Region vs Region, Malagasy vs. Foreign) - Social (Merina others- Decendents of Slaves Feudalist pattern of spread of resources (due to identity along social status) Political / Governance Constitution 1998 and its negative implications: - Centralisation of Power of President - Politicisation of ethnicity - Ethnicisation of politics Growing number of regional strongmen Corruption Security Shared cultural customs and tradition of peaceful conflict resolution (esp. On the local level) Emancipation of civil society (long-term) Foreign aid and well reflected (non-ethnic) allocation thereof Economic reforms (IMF) if working A R M E D Political / Institutional Authoritarian rule (legacy of socialist adapted divide et impera) Socio-demographic Unequal Opportunities Areal disparities rural-urban Economic Bad infrastructure Export driven economic system depending on agricultural (primary) goods Unequal spread of resources Natural Disasters Famine Deforestation Land Degredation Ecological Isolated clashes between different regional and ethnic groups Decreasing state control in the provinces Misuse of new resources for police and armed forces Socio-Demographic Population pressure Poverty Seasonal Famine Economic Structural Dependence on foreign aid Lost harvests after natural disasters Dependence on terms of trade for agricultural goods and hightened vulnerability INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONFLICT Continued execution of constitutionally implied (politicised) ethnicisation Continued process of ethnicisation of opposition parties Small arms proliferation and access to small arms Natural Disasters Emancipation of Civil society (short-term) Tensions due to growing number of refugees from Comoran Island Allocation of foreign aid along ethnic / regional lines C O N F L I C T Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 3

8 F A S T Chronology August 2000 December 2000 Aug Sept Oct 18 The leader of Leader Fanilo, Herzio Razafimahaleo, states that he is concerned about the installation of new provinces because this might lead to excesses due to the misinterpretation of the word autonomous. 25 MPs pass law establishing autonomous provinces. Opposition leaders state that the allocation of financial support for the provinces is unsettled and that this could pose a threat to every day work in provincial administration. 30 Provincial legislative elections for the new provinces are set for 3 rd December. 5 The KKFM says authorities had to explain the idea and the consequences of the provinces to the people and call for the elections to be postponed. 8 Former Minister of Defence general Ramakavelo forms his own opposition group, The Andrainarivo Group, with the aim to block the process under way to install the autonomous provinces. 9 President Ratsiraka gives reassurance on the autonomous provinces saying that the head of state would always be there to intervene if there were any (violent) excesses in the provinces. 13 Former president and opposition leader Albert Zafy says he is against the autonomous provinces calling for the many opposition groups to unite in their cause against the provinces. 15 A number of NGOs (among them the umbrella organisation Una-Civil [Union Nationales des associations Civils]) organise a national conference to re-enforce the culture of democracy in Madagascar attended by 270 participants from the civil society local and international NGOs, international organisation and political parties. 16 According 2000 Finance Amendment Act to number of security forces (Armed Forces, National Police and gendarmerie) amounts to The three ministerial departments consume 7% of the total national budget. 25 On his return from the UN-millennium summit president Ratsiraka criticises the conference on democracy held during his absence saying that he, as the head of state, prefers a regime of discipline rather than of democracy. Ratsiraka also criticises the international community for supporting the conference. 26 Didier Ratsiraka states that the Andrainarivo Group has a tribalist agenda saying that one of the leaders, general Rasolsoa Dolin had, in a clash in Tuelar in 1992, disarmed people from the coast (Côtiers) only. 27 In a letter addressed to international organisation in Madagascar, the Andrainarivo Group calls on president Ratsiraka to resign because he didn t lead the country in accordance with good governance 11 A number of MPs claim that a treaty signed France over the administration and control of a number of scattered islands north of Madagascar signed in 1999 had to be rejected as the two countries had signed a treaty dealing with the islands in Local authorities say the Southern part of the island is threatened by famine and that at least 6500 tons of food is needed. 13 After an audit report to the utilisation of aid in Madagascar, EU commissioner for development and humanitarian aid Poul Nielson meets Prime Minister Tantely Andrianarivo in Brussels to review cooperation between the two sides. Students and junior lecturers of the University of Antananarivo go on strike over wages and fees. 19 Six parties belonging to the presidential alliance call for clarification and modification of the articles on the autonomous provinces. They especially criticise an article introducing General Delegates of the Government [Délégués Généraux du Gouvernements] as controlling agents of the central administration in the provinces. 30 Before leaving for the COMESA summit in Lusaka, president Ratsiraka says that he will enter into economic but not into political co-operation with the organisation. Madagascar is one of 9 member states to sign a free trade agreement as the first step towards full regional integration by He also states that what is called civil society in Madagascar is in effect camouflaged political propaganda. Nov 3 Avamami, the party of former prime minister Francisque Ravony, says it will boycott the December 3 elections in opposition to the autonomous provinces. 5 The price of bread rises by 30 per cent overnight. 6 In view of the upcoming elections, the secretary of State for public security warns that law forbids any incitation to tribal hatred. 4 Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs

9 7 After talks with the minister of education fail, students and researchers of the University of Antananarivo continue their strikes and protests. 10 The National Council for the technical installation of the autonomous provinces CNATP is formed. It is chaired by Honoré Rakotomanana. The CNAPT announces that the Governors for the autonomous provinces will be elected in According to the Domestic Priority Inquiry of 1999 unemployment in Antananarivo has risen to 10.4 percent as opposed to 6.6 per cent in the other large towns. 19 Cholera is found in the regions of Beravina and Ankofafa (South Central Madagascar). Health authorities say that a lack of medicine will soon pose a serious threat to the health of the people in the region. 20 The Council of Christian Churches FFKM, The local NGO KMF-CNOE, the international catholic organisation Justice et Paix and the American NGO ISES announce that they will observe the upcoming provincial elections. According to news reports, the electoral campaigns are met with wide indifference. This is attributed to the fact that there have been 7 elections within 5 years and that a number of opposition parties decided to boycott the elections protesting against the installation of the autonomous provinces. 28 Unicef allocates 26 million US dollars to Madagascar to finance its co-operation programme for The programme concerns health, nutrition, education, rights and protection of the child as well as water, sewerage, information and communication plus follow-up and evaluation. Police say they will not tolerate strikes and protests by students any more. In a speech, AREMA minister Herivelona Ramanatsoa says there are traitors (especially from the young cadre) within the ranks of AREMA who will face serious penalties as foreseen by the party rules if they don t comply with the leaders. 30 Opposition party AVI, led by former prime minister Norbert Ratsirahonana, is criticised by other opposition parties for participating in the provincial legislation elections. Dec Madagascar asks Taiwan to close its liaison office in the country. The move is interpreted as the result of pressure from China. 3 Provincial legislation elections are held. Voters turnout is very low, especially in cities. AREMA wins most of the seats. This means that the autonomous provinces to be established will be governed by the ruling party. 7 The police order a protest march organised by the civil servants union USFM not to take place on December 8. 8 Japanese ambassador in Madagascar says his country was always ready to respond favourably to Malagasy appeals for aid in the sectors of health, primary education, environment and infrastructure. 12 The IMF and Madagascar discuss new fund for the continuation of the SAP. Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 5