Mozambique. FAST Update 4 / September November, Roland Dittli, MA

Transcription

1 Berne, December 2001 Mozambique FAST Update 4 / 2001 September November, 2001 Roland Dittli, MA Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs

2 CONTENTS Risk Assessment Analytical Framework...3 Chronology...4 Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs

3 Risk Assessment Mozambique * There is no likelihood of major armed conflict in Mozambique in the next three to six months. The short-term outlook for the country can be considered rather positive. On the political level, both major parties are getting ready for the elections. This might lead to more participatory party-structures within Renamo and better governance/delivery on the side of the government administration. A positive economic performance and incessant support by the international donor community guarantee a certain degree of stability. However, neither party seems to be interested in breaking the current political deadlock. Therefore the political disputes are likely to continue. Factors decreasing the likelihood of armed conflict The Renamo congress, held on October in Nampula, yielded somewhat ambiguous results. On the positive side there is the decision to restructure the party at local levels to improve organisation at the base. The election of the new National Council, consisting of 60 provincial delegates, was very transparent. This raises hopes that the congress decisions will actually be put into practice. In addition to this, the new Renamo Secretary-General, Joaquim Vaz, is said to be more of a manager than a politician and is expected to put greater stress on the organisation of party structures than his predecessors. In general, Renamo should now be in a considerably better position to contest the local elections in 2003 than before the congress. On Frelimo s side the Central Committee endorsed President Chissano s decision not to seek re-election in This sends a clear message that Frelimo s Central Committee accepts the need for change. However, a lot remains to be done to equally convince the rest of the party members as many Frelimo cadres are in no way prepared to find themselves in an opposition role. It seems crucial that Frelimo starts the succession debate now instead of waiting for the party congress in June As part of the preparations for the local elections, there are attempts to enhance the presence of Frelimo and government officials in the provinces as well as to improve the government s governance record. Several decisions were taken to increase delivery of the administrative apparatus and to become more responsive to citizen s needs, e.g. a new * The following assessment is based on the analysis of events and developments during the past three months along the FAST Analytical Framework for Mozambique. The Analytical Framework identifies root and proximate causes and intervening factors influencing the likelihood for armed conflict. Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 1

4 money-laundering bill, a promised anti-corruption unit within the Attorney General s office as well as new public service regulations. Extensive aid from the side of the international donors continues to support Mozambique s poverty reduction programme (see chronology). Economic indicators for next year look promising and regional economic development projects, e.g. the cross-border gas pipeline with South Africa, make good progress. Should rainfalls during the current rainy season indeed be somewhat less than in the previous two years as indicated by meteorologists the country stands a good chance to actually fulfil the positive economic expectations for the next year. Factors increasing the likelihood of armed conflict The biggest threats for Mozambique s stability remain the drawn-out political deadlock, crime and rampant corruption. Crime rates, especially in the bigger cities, are further surging (see Chronology, p4/5) while the Mozambican police still don t have the capacities and means to effectively combat crime. As a consequence, citizens could begin to take the law in their own hands, as it recently happened in Beira. The Renamo congress further strengthened Afonso Dhlakama s dominance over the party. He was re-elected virtually unchallenged with more than 93% of the votes. The highest decision making body, the Political Committee, consists of members appointed by Dhlakama. From this perspective, there is only a remote chance that Renamo would develop greater flexibility in terms of political demands. The political crisis is unlikely to be addressed in the near future, as both parties are at present preoccupied with internal questions. Meanwhile, the absence of communication channels between Chissano and Dhlakama continues to cause disruptions. Issues of minor importance for the country get blown out of proportion and damage the intra-party dialogue 1. Important issues, meanwhile, are blocked because neither party acknowledges the potential risks stemming from the current political deadlock (see FAST Update 3/2001, p1). The current complete paralysis of the parliamentary committee in charge of the electoral laws reform is a case in point. In this regard, Swiss plans of getting involved in the constitutional and electoral reforms is indeed a very useful initiative. 1 E.g. the threat by Frelimo to disarm Dhlakama s armed personal guard (see Chronology p. 4) was met by the Renamo President by saying that such a move could mean "a return to war". "Any attack on the Renamo guards is an attack on the northern and central regions of Mozambique", he said, adding that this would lead to a "people's war". Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 2

5 I N T E R V E N I N G F A C T O R S DECREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ARMED CONFLICT Analytical Framework ROOT CAUSES Historic! Nearly 30 years of armed conflict Political / Institutional! Lack of nation-building and absence of institutional power-sharing mechanisms in the political system (legacy of colonialism)! Anti-modernisation Renamo vs. modernization Frelimo! Centralisation of power, patronage and clientele system of resource allocation! Customary authorities shaped by colonial rule Societal / Socio-Demographic! Rural-urban and Maputo-rest of country cleavage (partially linked with Frelimo/ Renamo affiliation)! Social disintegration linked to modernization policies Economic! Export driven economic system depending on agricultural primary goods! High level of poverty (structural) PROXIMATE CAUSES Political / Governance! Absence of power-sharing mechanisms (formal or informal)! Confrontational style between Renamo and Frelimo inherited from civil war and unadressed grievances/distrust between conflict parties! (auto-) marginalisation of Renamo! Renamo dominated areas vs. Frelimo administered areas! Politisation of ethnic differences (north/south) in the formation of political identity! Small and fragmented opposition parties! Widespread corruption Societal / Socio-Demographic! Increasing generational conflicts! AIDS (also Economic) Economic! Concentration of investment and resources in Maputo corridor (regional imbalance)! Land conflicts in urbanized/industrialized areas; landmines vs. agriculture! Growing income disparities between poor and rich after liberalization policies increase poverty! Structural dependence on foreign aid; extreme foreign indebtedness (also Political)! Role of civil society in conflict mitigation! Improved efforts in national reconciliation! International solidarity after floods! Well targeted regional distribution of relief and reconstruction aid as well as general budget allocations for infrastructure! Impact of decentralization policy (donor driven and/or domestic)! Floods! Parties concern over violent outbreak INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ARMED CONFLICT! Renamo opposition policy through boycotts, threats, demonstrations! Power struggle within Renamo over attitude to government! Increase of crime and vigilantism, proliferation of small arms! Institutional weakness caused by corruption! Regional and political (Renamo vs. Frelimo areas) distribution of relief and reconstruction aid by international donors! Floods! Concentration of foreign investment in Maputo corridor! Mozambican-South African border traffic of immigrants, arms, drugs etc. A R M E D C O N F L I C T Ecological! Natural disaster Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 3

6 Chronology September November 2001 Reuters/ IRIN/ Local Information Network Sept Party Politics/Policies # President Chissano announced that it is possible that he will stand for re-election in the next general elections. Chissano said that he still has the energy and strength to lead the country, adding that everything depends on the will of the majority of the population and the party members. # Chissano said that there should be "greater rigor" in disarming the illegal security force of the Renamo party, adding that they would all be disarmed as part of the joint police operations with South Africa to collect illegal weapons. # Afonso Dhlakama warned Frelimo of the consequences of any operation to disarm his personal bodyguard corps. "Any attack on the Renamo guards is an attack on the northern and central regions of Mozambique", he said, adding the move could mean "a return to war". He stressed that any attempt to disarm the bodyguards would lead to a "people's war", warning that his party was "ready to react to any provocation". Economy/Finance # The South African cabinet approved a 10bn-rand cross-border natural gas project with Mozambique. Production is scheduled to start in # Zambia has been granted membership of the "Nacala Development Corridor". Over a dozen of projects along the corridor are expected to be discussed at an investors' conference, which is scheduled to take place early next year. # The Mozambican economy has grown by nearly 15 percent in the first half of this year, with the Mozal aluminium smelter contributing an estimated 4 percent. Inflation was at 5.1 percent. "The agricultural sector was the main contributor to our growth rate with 5.2 per cent, Finance Minister Luisa Diogo said. Humanitarian/Donors/Human Rights # IMF and World Bank support Mozambique with an additional $600m under the new enhanced HIPC Initiative. This together with earlier programmes reduces the country s total external debt by some 73%. Debt service payments will be almost cut in half (from over $100m in 1998 to about $56m from ) Debt service as percentage of the government s revenue is reduced from 23% to 10% ( ) and 7% ( ). Including the assistance under the original HIPC agreement, total debt relief to Mozambique has reached more than US $3.5 billion Oct Party Politics/Policies # Renamo Party Congress: # Renamo MPs Agostinho Murrial from Inhambane and Manuel Pereira from Zambezia are the candidates who are going to run for Renamo president against Dhlakama. Both are considered to be rather political lightweights. # A new National Council was elected which was expanded to include 60 members instead of only 10. Dhlakama pledged to change Renamo s political strategy saying, "as from now, Renamo has to be in a position to offer its members an alternative to Frelimo's governance" and added that his party will now start preparing for the elections in 2003 and # At least five people were injured, two of them seriously, when they were attacked by bodyguards loyal to Dhlakama. The attack occurred when a group of former Renamo guerrilla fighters attempted to mount a peaceful demonstration outside the congress. They carried placards with the slogans "the interests of the former fighters have been ignored", and "Dhlakama's meeting isn't a congress, it's a meeting of friends". # The Congress re-elected Dhlakama as party president. Dhlakama got 599 votes or 93.1 per cent of all the ballots cast. The congress also chose Joaquim Vaz, a former Renamo representative in Portugal, as the party's new general secretary, replacing Joao Alexandre. An 11-member Political Commission has been elected. In addition to Afonso Dhlakama, the Political Commission includes Jafar Gulamo Jafar, Joao Alexandre, Jose de Castro, and Agostinho Murrial, among others. # Commenting on his re-election as party leader, Dhlakama said that this was a demonstration that there is democracy within Renamo. Among several political demands Dhlakama said he sees no reason to step back, because he didn t hold the highest position in the country yet Crime # Police sources in Maputo said during the first six months of this year there were criminal acts committed in Maputo against during the same period last year. Firearms were used in 424 crimes against 223 in the previous year. Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 4

7 Economy/Finance # Both the IMF and the World Bank hand out good grades for Mozambique s Action Programme for the Reduction of Absolute Poverty (PARPA) and consequently think of increasing aid to Mozambique. # An investors' conference in Inhambane was looking for ways and funds to develop this province. About 500 investors took part in the conference including delegates from Germany and Ireland who promised to increase their support for the development of Mozambique. # The Mozambican Government and the South African Group ABSA concluded on Friday the negotiations on the sale of 80% of Banco Austral's capital. # Hundreds of workers began an indefinite strike over wages at the nation's largest firm, Mozal, in defiance of a sacking threat by the management. It s the second strike in this year. Humanitarian/Donors/Human Rights # USAID has granted US $11.5m to Mozambique for an anti-hiv/aids programme. # During the thirteenth Consultative Group (CG) meeting of the government and its international development partners in Maputo on 25 and 26 October, international donors have pledged more than US $700 million in support of Mozambique's poverty reduction programme. # About people above the age of 15 will die this year in Mozambique as result of AIDS. According to recent projections of the demographic and health impacts presented in Maputo in 2000, there were people infected. An additional 500 people get infected each day. Nov Party Politics/Policies # The completing of the flood contingency plan between the government and IGOs has been delayed until mid-december. Some NGOs criticized that this is too late for the plan to be effective to the extent which would be needed. # A new political party has been established. The Congress of United Democrats [Congresso dos Democratas Unidos], CDU, is led by Antonio Palange, who is a medical doctor and a former member of the Democratic Union. He was member of Parliament during the legislature. # Mozambican parliament approved a new law on money laundering as part of the fight against drug trafficking and other criminal activities. It introduces heavy fines and penalties, with up to 24 years of prison sentence for those found guilty of converting or transferring assets resulted from drug trafficking. Crime # Police in Beira said that crime in the city is increasing rapidly. They admitted that the citizens have lost faith in them and in some cases citizens "take justice into their own hands". Economy/Finance # Pascoal Mocumbi told Parliament that his government had assured 60% of the US$87 million needed to build the vital bridge in Caia over the Zambezi River. The need for this bridge was often used by Renamo as an example of the government s neglect of the centre and north of the country. # More than 60% of Mozambicans believe that the economic situation of their households has not deteriorated, when compared with a year earlier. In only two provinces - Gaza and Sofala, both severely hit by the floods - did a majority of the sample say their lives had deteriorated. # Union sources said that 33 workers were expelled by the MOZAL leadership including the head of the Union Branch at MOZAL, Jose Isaac Nhococome, who was charged of being the ringleader of the strike. # After 20 days the strike at Mozal was called off after the directorate continued to refuse talks with the strikers Humanitarian/Donors/Human Rights # The European Commission provides 17.4 million euros to support Mozambican agriculture. # Switzerland provides another $ for demining activities in Southern Mozambique. Mozambique is spending between $12.5 and $15 million a year on demining. Switzerland provides $1.5 million a year of these funds. # The Swedish International Development Agency decided to provide around $400,000 for 1,000 microprojects to groups of peasant farmers in the northernmost province of Niassa between now and # Mozambique is about to sign an agreement in which France agrees to forfeit 35 million euros of bilateral debt, on the understanding that the money normally going into servicing this debt will instead be used for agricultural and HIV/AIDS programmes in Cabo Delgado. # At least 60 people have died of cholera in Mozambique since the disease broke out in August. More than half the country had been affected, including the capital Maputo. At least five provinces - Maputo, Sofala, Zambezia, Nampula and Niassa - are affected, with Zambezia hit the hardest. # Germany has pledged 89 million marks to Mozambique. DM54 million is for financial cooperation, and 35 million for technical cooperation, in the areas of rural development, education, economic reform, and developing a market economy in Inhambane, Sofala and Manica provinces. Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 5